Posts from — September 2009

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at Rancho Cordova sales over the past several years and simulataneously check out unemployment rates during that same time period. Is there a relationship between unemployment and the value of real estate? Generally speaking, the higher the unemployment rate, there is a good chance of lower home prices because the probability of buyers being able to purchase houses at higher prices decreases.

The trend graph below records all single family detached sales in the city of Rancho Cordova through Sacramento Area Metrolist. The unemployment figures are based on data provided by EDD. What do you see in the graph? Does anything stand out to you or surprise you about the sales (blue dots) or listed unemployment rate?

Below is a view of the past 12 months of sales. As can be seen, the unemployment rate has risen sharply over the past year. It looks like overall the top of the market has seen a decline in property values. At first glance, when viewing a graph like this, it’s easy to gloss over the details, but when looking closely, it’s clear that there are less sales at higher levels over the past months, aren’t there? More specifically, there are few sales above the $400,000 level over the past 180 days.

I don’t want to be misleading in any way by indicating that unemployment is the sole determining factor for property values. That’s not what I am saying. I think there is a relationship between unemployment and the housing market, but that unemployment is only one of the factors involved. This point is illustrated perfectly by a current phenomenon in many sub-markets in the Sacramento Region. Bidding wars, multiple offers, and higher prices have become more commonplace for certain price levels. Despite unemployment rising, the lower supply of housing inventory over the past months has really helped to fuel this phenomenon because there has been more willing buyers than available houses (and prices are very attractive too because of how far they have come down from several years ago). Other factors to consider that may impact the real estate market are supply and demand, governmental regulations, interest rates, consumer confidence in the economy, etc…

Please let me know if you have any questions. You can call me at 916-595-3735 or contact me at ryan@lundquistcompany.com.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com A Look at Home Sales & Unemployment in Rancho Cordova

There is a big difference between “Superfun” and “Superfund”. One is all about having a great time and the other deals with hazardous waste sites in the United States. I know which one I’d rather have. 

If you are not familiar with the Superfund website, it’s worth checking out. Their website states:  

Superfund is the name given to the environmental program established to address abandoned hazardous waste sites. It is also the name of the fund established by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980, as amended (CERCLA statute, CERCLA overview). This law was enacted in the wake of the discovery of toxic waste dumps such as Love Canal and Times Beach in the 1970s. It allows the EPA to clean up such sites and to compel responsible parties to perform cleanups or reimburse the government for EPA-lead cleanups.

Our territory in California is located in Region 9 and at www.epa.gov/superfund you can see all Superfund Sites in Region 9 as well as Cleanup Sites in California. For locals, you might recognize names like Mather Air Force Base, Sacramento Army Depot, Jibboom Junkyard, Travis Air Force Base, Riverbank Army Ammunition Plant, or AeroJet.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com Superfun vs. Superfund

I’ve never personally appraised a home for a higher amount because of the type of mailbox it had, and I’ve never heard of a mailbox actually increasing the market value of a property. Have you ever encountered buyers who purchased a home for more because it had a nice mailbox? Probably not. With that being said, I’ll say in principle that many times a good looking mailbox is often a byproduct of a house that has been well cared for. This isn’t always true, but generally speaking, when a home owner has taken the time to add attention to even the mailbox, usually effort has also been given to the actual house itself. Have you found this to be mostly true also?

While snapping comp photos today in Dixon, CA after inspecting a property I am appraising, I happened upon the mailbox below. I know, a mailbox can be sort of like piece of art, and either you’ll love it or hate it, but my eye caught a hold of this one because of the telephone-pole vibe as well as the metal craftsmanship that was probably custom-designed or maybe even welded by the owner. I thought this was a very creative example of a mailbox and it really fit well with the overall presentation of the home (and sure enough, the rest of this house looks very decent too, which supports my generalization above). 

There are certainly many more examples of mailboxes out there. We’ve all seen the chicken mailbox, the duck, the giant brick pillar, or the miniature mailbox that is designed and painted just like the actual house. Have a look at the links below to find out more about what is out there (and even the history behind mailboxes).

Mailbox Links:

• Ugly Mailbox
• “Letter Box” Article on Wikipedia (mailbox history)
• United States Postal Service
• Postal Regulatory Commission
• Free Plans for Building Your Own Wooden Mailbox
• Post Office in Dixon, CA

If you have an additional link suggestion, please comment above. Also, if you have a picture you took of a wild mailbox, email me at ryan@lundquistcompany.com and I’ll post it here so long as it is appropriate.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com A Mailbox in Dixon, CA: Photos from the Field

I snapped this shot while appraising a property in Wheatland, CA. I was taking comp photos when I stumbled upon this house. I felt compelled to grab the image because it’s not every day you see an American flag gate, right? Not only is the gate painted as a flag, but it’s clearly built to be a flag if you can see more closely the horizontal slats as stripes and a rectangular portion for stars. What do you think? Would you like to have this patriotic gate as a part of your home? Would you mind if your neighbors had something like this?  Feel free to comment above if you’d like.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com Photos from the Field: An American Flag Gate

Over the years I have done quite a bit of appraisal work in the city of Galt. If you are not familiar with the area, then know that Galt is located off Highway 99 in Sacramento County just North of the San Joaquin County Line and South of the city of Elk Grove. The Highway basically divides Galt into two portions (Western & Eastern), and in general the Western side contains older houses (though there are still patches of newer developments as well as many properties built in the early 1990s in particular).

The information in the graph below is based upon sales in Sacramento MLS for detached single family residential units.

Instead of keeping all sales in the graph as one color, I thought it would be more interesting to plot properties built after 2000 (blue dots) against homes built before 1999 (red). What do you see in the graph? It looks like the panoramic view of sales is showing that buyers are willing to pay higher amounts for properties that are newer in age. This isn’t a revolutionary concept, but it’s interesting to see on paper. Yet at the same time one notices there are many properties built prior to 2000 that compete with the upper end of blue dots between $250-400K. Overall though, we see that the lower end of the market has fewer blue dots, doesn’t it?

I suppose if we really wanted to segment the entire Galt market in the graph, it would be most prudent to further break down age categories into something like the following: pre-1900, 1900-1940, 1940-1960, 1960-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2009. And then we could start segmenting other factors like square footage, location, lot size, bedroom count, condition, upgrades, etc…. Okay, this is starting to sound like what I do everyday as an appraiser. 

By the way, if you have not seen our Galt video on YouTube, check it out HERE or below. The photos are original and they help to show some of the different types of property found in Galt – on both sides of the freeway. The city of Galt has some neat historical properties and also really typical tract homes.

Feel free to comment above or contact me at info@lundquistcompany.com or 916-595-3735 if you have any questions. If you are a Galt home owner, what is it you love about your city?

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com City of Galt Market Trends & the Value of Age

Here are some photos from the field yesterday. I usually snap a picture when I see something that interests me.

Got vacant sites? This sure is a common view throughout the Greater Sacramento Region and Central Valley. The following image was snapped in the city of Tracy on the Western end of Golden Leaf Lane. It’s just not cost-effective in most cases to build out lots right now, even if the lots are “finished” and simply ready for a builder to come in.

I don’t know what it is, but when I see a home owner on his one-acre lot selling cows and goats, I feel compelled to snap a picture of the signage. This photo was taken in Atwater, CA.

Last, but not least. On the way home from inspections yesterday I had a bit of a scary moment when my tire blew out on the freeway. The entire tread on my front left tire just completely came off. At first I didn’t know if I hit something or what happened. I felt the truck start to pull to the left though and for a split second I wondered what was going to happen. Thank God I was able to get to the side of Highway 99 safely and quickly.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com Photos from the Field: Tracy, Atwater, & Tire

Quick data on Antelope, CA based on information provided in Sacramento MLS for detached single family residential properties: 

• There were 832 sales in Antelope within one year of 09/14/2009.
• 63% of these sales sold as “bank-owned”
• 20% of the sales sold as Short Sales
• 206 sales over the past 90 days
• 38 current Active listings
• 203 current Short Sale Active listings
• 112 current Pendings.

Interesting stuff. I typically run city-wide data like this for appraisal reports and then of course neighborhood-specific data for the market area boundaries for the property I am appraising (often times a certain subdivision). This helps me see both the overall market and then the smaller neighborhood in the context of the real estate market at large.

What do you think of the data? Does anything stand out to you? Do you think most buyers look at figures like this to determine the health or lacktherof in a community (before they buy)? Do buyers care? Comment above or call me at 916-595-3735 if you have any questions.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com Quick Data: Antelope Foreclosures & Short Sales

On this coming Sunday, the Starbucks in the “Oak Park” area of Sacramento will be closing. Between appraisal inspections today, I paid my respects by buying a cup of coffee for the last time at the location. Oak Park native, Kevin Johnson (former NBA All Star / current Mayor of Sacramento), was instrumental in bringing Starbucks to the area and helping to reinvent the corner on which it is located. 

I always liked the art on the inside of this store because it had somewhat of a typical Starbucks feel to it, but it also incorporated local Oak Park flavor by using KJ imagery. I took the following shots with my mobile phone.

According to a Sacramento Bee article, the word is that Old Soul Company is potentially interested in this corner spot, so hopefully they or another coffee house will soon establish roots. Whatever happens, the hope is that the new business willl be a step forward in redevelopment for Oak Park. 

Further Background & Articles:

• Sacramento Biz Journals: “Ambitious Oak Park Project Taking Off” (2001)
• Sacramento Biz Journals: “Time-worn Oak Park on the Rebound” (2006)
• Sacramento Bee: “Old Soul Could Replace Departing Starbucks in Oak Park” (2009)
• Sacramento Bee: “Starbucks to Shut 7 Sacramento-area Shops” (2009)
• Oak Park Neighborhood Association
• SHRA: Oak Park Redevelopment Area
• St. HOPE

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com R.I.P. Oak Park Starbucks

While in the field, I snapped a few photos over the past week that caught my attention. I get a kick out of architecture and design, and particularly old restaurants that have now been converted to different businesses. Below are two local examples of an old Taco Bell that was converted to something else. As a bonus, I included a shot of a former Long John Silver’s that is now a check cashing business. Enjoy.

If you have other local examples, please comment above, or better yet, email your pictures and I’ll post them (so long as they are original photos).

Starbucks at 1401 Alhambra Blvd in Sacramento:

Carolina’s Mexican Food at 10179 Folsom Blvd in Rancho Cordova:

Check Cashing (next to Carolina’s) – Formerly a Long John Silver’s:

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com Photos from the Field: ”Taco Bell” Buildings

The Employment Development Department publishes unemployment rates on a monthly basis. The most recent rates available are for July 2009. EDD usually takes about three weeks or so to publish data from the previous month, so rates for August should be out in the next ten days.

The overall rate of unemployment in El Dorado County is 11.8%. If you have interest to compare other county/city unemployment rates, see previous posts on Sacramento, Placer, and San Joaquin & Solano counties.

Cameron Park CDP   8.2%

Diamond Springs CDP   14.5%

El Dorado Hills CDP    7.0%

Georgetown CDP   20.0%

Placerville city   17.2%

Pollock Pines CDP   13.3%

Shingle Springs CDP   8.7%

South Lake Tahoe city   15.8%

Please let me know if you have any questions. You are welcome to call me at 916-595-3735 or email at ryan@lundquistcompany.com.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com What is the Unemployment Rate in El Dorado County for July 2009?

I am working on an appraisal right now in the city of Lincoln. I am running some general data for the entire city and figured I’d share it here. I like to compile city-wide data and then most-importantly, neighborhood specific data. This helps me see the overall market in which the neighborhood is located, as well as the neighborhood itself.

What do you notice below on the trend graph? Does it look like there is a slight upswing on the bottom right corner? Take a peak at some other recent graphs on my blog and see if you can find this same phenomenon elsewhere. What do you think this means?

Lincoln, CA Real Estate Market Trends:

• 978 sales over the past 12 months
• 45% of 978 sales were bank-owned (REO)
• 20% of 978 sales were short sales
• 272 sales over the past 90 days
• 199 current active listings
• 247 current short sale listings
• 159 current pending properties
• Lincoln unemployment rate is 20.1% for July 2009 (was 19.3% in May ‘09)

The information above is based on Sacramento Area Metrolist for single family residential detached properties. The graph includes sales under $1,000,000 because there were few sales above $1,000,000. If you have a need for further research or more in-depth analysis or a valuation report, contact me at 916-595-3735 or ryan@lundquistcompany.com.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com Market Trends in the City of Lincoln (Placer County, CA)

A quick post. What’s been happening in the Ripon real estate market over the past several years? The city of Ripon is located in Southern San Joaquin County just North of the Stanislaus County line. The trend graph below accounts for all sales in MLS over the past three years (detached single family residential properties only).

What do you notice in the trend graph? Does anything stand out to you? Feel free to comment above. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to call 916-595-3735 or email info@lundquistcompany.com.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com City of Ripon Real Estate Market Trends: Past 3 Years of Sales in MLS