Posts from — December 2009

I’m wrapping up an appraisal report tonight for an investor in Carmichael. While crunching numbers and running data, I decided to do a little comparison of sales in Carmichael and Fair Oaks. So I graphed all detached single family residential sales (from MLS) over the past three years and came up with the following trend graph. I only included sales less than 1.5 million since there are a very limited number of properties above that level.

All sales over the past 36 months in Carmichael are listed below in blue and all sales in Fair Oaks are displayed in green.

It’s interesting to see an overall common trend for both Carmichael & Fair Oaks, though not ultimately surprising since the communities tend to overall have a somewhat similar appeal in the marketplace (though Fair Oaks has a slight edge as local Realtor Nate Sisam mentions below). Despite there being niches in both communities that may be superior to other areas, and a slightly higher median price level in Fair Oaks, it seems that the ups and downs of the real estate market over the past few years have been taken in stride for both of these communities. In fact, the median price level for Fair Oaks over the past year was only 2% higher than Carmichael during the first 6 months of the year, and 4% higher during the past two consecutive quarters. For reference, the latest unemployment rate in Carmichael as of November 2009 is 9.2%, whereas the unemployment rate in Fair Oak si 7.0%. The rate of unemployment in Sacramento County as a whole for November 2009 is 12.5%.

Sacramento Realtor Nate Sisam gives us further insight:

Fair Oaks and Carmichael are both established neighborhoods that offer people larger than overage lot sizes and diverse architecture. It has always been that Fair Oaks commanded a slightly higher price due to several key elements. Fair Oaks was one of the first established “Country communities” in the 20′s-40′s with a rich history in Olive and Citrus farming. Today that heritage is still evident when looking at property in Fair Oaks. Additionally the Fair Oaks Village brings the community together and adds to the charm of the area. From an accessibility standpoint Fair Oaks is slightly more freeway accessible. I would note that these communities are diverse and that pockets within each of them could be considered equal.

What do you think of the graph above? Does anything stand out to you? If you live or work in Carmichael or Fair Oaks, what do you enjoy about the community? If you had your choice to live in either of these areas, which would you choose? Comments are welcome below.

In 2010 the Sacramento Appraisal Blog will be offering a “podcast” tool through AudioBoo. This feature will enable audio market updates, interviews with local real estate agents, and discussions on other relevant topics. All audio entries will be posted in the “podcast“ tab above and also in a blog article too for the sake of discussion. Here is an introductory sample podcast for you.

This will be an exciting feature in 2010, and if you have any suggestions for topics, feel free to email me at ryan@lundquistcompany.com or call me at 916-595-3735. Additionally, if you have a differing podcast/audio blog tool to plug, I am open ears.

Every Christmas my family goes to Foresthill to visit with close friends (I also do appraisals there at times too). One thing I love about Foresthill during December is how residents decorate trees along Foresthill Road. Beginning the day after Thanksgiving a handful of locals will select random trees to spruce up with tinsel and ornaments along the 17-mile trip from Interstate 80 to the center of town in Foresthill. These decorations then stay up through the month of December and are taken down by whoever hung them originally. What a fantastic tradition and display of a sense of community, don’t you think? It’s small things like this that show the character of a community.

By the way, in case you have not visited Foresthill, the Foresthill bridge is definitely worth walking across. It’s 730 feet high and is the tallest bridge in the state of California. This bridge was actually featured in Vin Diesel’s 2002 action movie called xXx (Triple X). In the film a red stolen corvette jumps off the side of the Foresthill bridge and then the driver parachutes to safety. The clip below shows this stunt. The clip may contain some elements and language not appropriate for all ages. Enjoy.

Merry Christmas to you and your loved ones. May you have a wonderful holiday season with family and friends. May you find contentment, joy and peace in the coming week ahead before a new year dawns. Thank you for making this year a great one.

The first photo above was taken on an outing to one of my family’s favorite Christmas light nooks in the “Elmhurst” area of Sacramento near T Street & 53rd Street. The second image was snapped in the White Rock area of Rancho Cordova while driving around with my boys after a hot chocolate run at a local coffee house.

I had an appraisal inspection this week in the Glen Clove area of Vallejo, and I snapped the following photos with my mobile phone. These shots overlook the Carquinez Straight and Carquinez Bridge. The first picture was taken at a higher elevation, the second was at water level, and the third was at the end of the Vista Del Mar gated community overlooking the Glen Cove Marina.

If you live in the Glen Cove area, what is it you enjoy about your community? What drew you to purchase a home in the neighborhood?

I added a feature recently so others can follow the Sacramento Appraisal Blog on Facebook. “Networked Blogs” is an official application on Facebook that allows users to share blogs, discover new blogs and connect with others.

It would be an honor if you would consider following the Sacramento Appraisal Blog on Facebook. Click HERE to follow. Let’s stay connected.

Thank you for your support.

Dear Investor on the Phone-

We spoke today for ten minutes or so while I was driving in the field. We discussed you searching for a duplex, triplex or fourplex in the Sacramento area. I know it’s not been easy to get a contract accepted these days because of the multiple offers (even on fixer residential-income properties). Despite the troubled economy, there’s competition out there because investors still have cash to make these deals work, don’t they?

Anyway, as we discussed on the phone, I have some potential leads for you, so make sure to give me a call. I know this seems a bit odd to write a note publicly, but that’s the way you found me in the first place. Unfortunately your email did not come through and your phone number listed as “blocked” on my cell (so I cannot call you back).

I hope our paths cross for business or networking. Best of luck to you.

Sincerely,

Ryan Lundquist
Lundquist Appraisal Company
Real Estate Appraiser
TEL: 916-595-3735
ryan@lundquistcompany.com
www.lundquistcompany.com

Thank you everyone for participating in the Sacramento Appraisal Blog’s first blog contest. The grand prize was a $125.00 Residential Natural Hazard & Tax Disclosure Report compliments of www.GeoAssurance.com. I appreciate all who entered by commenting on THIS blog post (or tweeting the post). Please see the 40 second video below to see who won. Thanks again everyone and thank you to GeoAssurance for being a great sport about supporting this contest and providing the prize!!!

If you didn’t know, the city of Rancho Cordova is home to several stellar monuments. Between appraisal inspections today I snapped the following images of a Pony Express memorial on Folsom Boulevard next to the Valero gas station on Dawes. This historic monument is an important piece of local history, yet it’s quite easy to miss because of its location in front of a vacant lot and next to commercial properties (gas station and Rosie’s Country Kitchen).

Does anyone know how many other Pony Express monuments there are in Rancho Cordova? And where are they located? What other tributes to history can one find in Rancho Cordova? Let’s see who knows local history. 

Here is a quick trend graph for you of all sales in the city of Fairfield over the past 12 months (red dots) as well as all current pendings (blue dots). What do you notice? Does anything stand out to you? Can you decipher any citywide trends based on this scatter graph? By the way, the unemployment rate in Fairfield as of November 2009 is 13.1%.

I know citywide graphs are not as descriptive as neighborhood-specific graphs or even if we looked at a specific square footage or age range in Fairfield. Just take the graph above for what it’s worth. It’s interesting to see six of the highest sales of the year over the past six months. Does it seem too that the lowest end of the market is a tad higher than the lowest point during the beginning of the year?

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.comCity of Fairfield Recent Sales and Pendings

What is the substance in the pictures below? How would you describe it if you were telling a friend about the images? Have you ever encountered a property like this before? If you are a real estate agent, have you sold something similar? If you were planning to purchase a fixer-upper in the Sacramento Region (or elsewhere), would a blackish-greenish substance like this deter you from entering contract?

When appraisers come across issues like this, one would think we’d simply call the substance “mold”, but that’s not the case. The truth is that since a real estate appraiser is not a fungus or mold specialist, it’s important to not speak definitively about something that another licensed professional should be the expert on. Moreover, what if the substance was not just mold caused by excessive moisture damage, but ”toxic mold”?

So what do appraisers say when encountering properties with an issue like this? Well, until we get clarification or a definitive pronouncement from a licensed mold professional, we simply describe the substance in words similar to “an unknown blackish-greenish substance”. When we do find out what the substance is, then we can better determine the impact on market value depending on cost-to-cure and the reaction in the marketplace to the existence of such a substance.

On Fannie Mae’s 1004 Appraisal Form, real estate appraisers are asked to identify any physical deficiencies or adverse conditions that might affect the livability, soundness or structural integrity of a property. The blackish-greenish substance in the photos above might potentially impact livability, right?

For further reading on mold, see the following links. You are welcome to suggest a link or share a story below too.  Thank you to an appraiser colleague who provided these images to me out of his work file.

Mold Links:

• CDC Mold Information
• EPA Toxic Mold
• Wikipedia: Mold Health Issues
• Toxic Mold Resource Links

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com An Unknown Blackish-Greenish Substance

Yesterday I wrote about the Plumas Lake real estate market, and since I inspected a property in Olivehurst today (just north of Plumas Lake), I figured I’d include a few supplementary images of the area.

This photo was taken today in the southern portion of Plumas Lake (Cresleigh Meadows / Plumas Ranch). Vacant residential lots are commonplace these days and seen in the Plumas Lake area and throughout the Sacramento Region in many cities and counties.This vacant lot is located right across the street from a brand new park, and I loved the contrast of residential cables, brown grass and grazing sheep. 

Many newly constructed communites have “coming soon” signs for future residential and commercial construction. In general there is not enough profitability for local builders at this time, so postponed construction during the economic downturn is very standard protocol. Just think of how many jobs (and excited residents) there will be when the economy turns around and building can resume.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com Sheep in Plumas Lake: Photos from the Field