Ryan Lundquist

Cost vs value, Johnny Cash, & an explosion of murals

July 2, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 13 Comments

Last week was a heavy post, so this week I have something quick and light. I wanted to share a perfect cost vs value example and then look at a few murals – particularly the Johnny Cash mural in Downtown Sacramento.

Record price: This contemporary home in Sierra Oaks Vista just sold for $5M, which is the highest residential sale ever in Sacramento County. I know it surprises some that we haven’t seen loftier sales, but let’s remember Sacramento isn’t the Bay Area despite being close.

Cost vs value: This house cost ten million dollars to build, but the market only paid half that. This is a striking example that just because an owner spent money doesn’t mean buyers will. Keep in mind there were two previous listings below six million for nearly two years of market exposure, so this home wasn’t given away.

Big takeaway: Just because you spend a dollar doesn’t mean you’ll get a dollar back in value. Cost doesn’t always translate to value, and this is the perfect example. More on the myth of dollar for dollar here.

EXPLOSION OF MURALS

Many cities across the country are seeing an explosion of murals lately. In Sacramento there’s been a concerted effort to paint the town with an emphasis called Wide Open Walls. This isn’t just Midtown or Downtown either as art is starting to spread to other portions of the region. If you want to see local murals, here’s the most exhaustive mural map out there.

Johnny Cash: Artist Shepard Fairey unveiled a 15-story Johnny Cash mural last year. This mural commemorates the 50th anniversary of the At Folsom Prison album (which I have on vinyl), but it also highlights the need for prison reform. Thank you to local photographers Dan & Vicky for letting me use these images.

Johnny Cash mentions in MLS: If you didn’t know, Folsom is a city in Sacramento County, which means Johnny Cash recorded his album locally. As a side note, “Johnny Cash” is mentioned seventeen times in MLS listings. It would be cool if the mentions were due to Mr. Cash making the real estate market move, but that’s just not the case. In every instance the mentions have been associated with the Johnny Cash Walking Trail. Yes, there’s a walking trail on the outskirts of the prison property.

A few other cool murals: Thanks to John Adair and Vicky for letting me use some of your mural pictures.

One more. This isn’t in Sacramento, but it’s one of my favorite murals. I snapped this photo in Downtown Los Angeles a couple years ago. It’s called Our Lady of DTLA. I like how it canvases the housing units instead of being located on some random alley like many murals.

I hope you enjoyed this. Have a wonderful 4th of July!

Questions: What do you think about all the murals? Do they add value or make any difference for a neighborhood?

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Appraisers don’t use race when valuing homes

June 22, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 49 Comments

Last week in a congressional hearing on the future of the appraisal profession, some research was used to suggest appraisers are showing racial bias and essentially undervaluing black neighborhoods. I was not expecting the conversation to go that way during the hearing and I’ll admit I’m deeply concerned about the emerging narrative of appraisers being racists.

I know race is a polarizing topic, but I wanted to approach this today with humility to clarify a few things. Please join me in respectful conversation.

THREE THINGS:

1) Appraisers don’t use race: Appraisers cannot and do not use race as a factor when coming up with a value. This is 100% off limits – not to mention highly unethical and immoral. Race has absolutely nothing to do with value. Comps are never selected based on race or racial boundaries of any kind. Let me say that again. Race is NEVER considered during a valuation.

2) Have appraisers “devalued” neighborhoods by $48,000? In the congressional hearing a panelist talked about a study that shows black neighborhoods are devalued by $48,000 compared to otherwise similar white neighborhoods. That’s alarming and society needs to have some serious discussion about this, but this study has NOTHING to do with appraisers actually devaluing properties (read it here). When we hear the word “devaluation” it sounds like we’re talking about something appraisers are doing, but the $48,000 price disparity comes from the author studying price trends from Zillow rather than analyzing the actions of appraisers. In other words, appraisers are NOT devaluing homes by $48,000. Yet when congress members heard “devaluation” and the speaker saying appraisers are part of the problem, the impression is that appraisers are clearly showing bias by devaluing properties based on race. This impression has certainly been passed on via social media too. You can watch the hearing here.

3) Appraisers reflect the market: One of my takeaways from the hearing is there’s a deep misunderstanding of what appraisers actually do, which is why it’s easy to place blame for this $48,000 price disparity on appraisers.

a) Not magicians: Appraisers aren’t magicians able to cause value to rise or fall. We certainly don’t have the power to make prices $48,000 higher or lower in one neighborhood compared to another.

b) The only role: An appraiser’s only role is to ensure the value of a home is measured accurately without bias. What would buyers reasonably pay for a specific home in a specific location? That’s always the question, and the best reflection of value is likely going to come from competitive sales in the neighborhood itself.

c) Locations aren’t the same: The market isn’t doing the same thing everywhere and buyers are not willing to pay the same prices everywhere either. This is why the appraised value can vary so widely – even if homes are identical in different neighborhoods. The speaker’s $48,000 price disparity between black and white neighborhoods is truly shocking, but frankly that’s not an appraisal issue. The appraiser’s job isn’t to ensure values are the same everywhere. Appraisers use neighborhood sales data to come up with value and it would be unethical to borrow “comps” from a higher-priced area to jack up prices in a lower-priced community (or vice versa).

d) Helping is not an option: Even if appraisers wanted to see certain areas emerge in glory after the ugly reality of redlining, it’s still not an appraiser’s professional role to make that happen. This might sound callous, but appraisers don’t make markets move. They only measure the market rather than act as a gas pedal or brake pedal for prices. This is exactly why the $48,000 example is so flawed. This price difference isn’t caused by appraisers doing their job. There are much bigger issues at the root.

As an appraiser I will NOT:

– Show bias against race
– Value a property any differently because of race
– Discuss race in any appraisal report
– Work with people who are known racists
– Treat any clients differently due to race
– Base any opinions in my appraisal on race
– Tolerate racism in real estate if I’m aware of it
– Use subjective language to say one neighborhood is better or worse

As an appraiser I will:

– Strive to be professional and kind to everyone
– Be unbiased in my approach to value
– Respect owners and renters of all backgrounds
– Let market data tell the story of value
– Have friendships with diverse members in the real estate community
– Say yes to speaking engagements with diverse groups
– Listen when people talk about racism in real estate
– Be open to findings in studies on racial bias in valuation
– Speak up when narratives like this emerge
– Clarify the role of appraisers

Why I wrote this: After watching the hearing last week I was deeply concerned that the neutral role appraisers play is being sorely misunderstood. I’m dismayed too that colleagues are being perceived as racists.

In Closing: We have a systemic problem of racial discrimination in our country and there is an ugly history of racism in real estate too. In fact, here’s a sobering presentation talking about redlining in Sacramento. This is exactly why we need to have conversation about the study showing price differences between black and white neighborhoods. This is real. But before running with the headline that appraisers are “devaluing” neighborhoods by race, let’s hit the pause button. The study quoted doesn’t support this claim. Is racism real though? Of course.

Want to comment? Please know I will not approve any inflammatory or racial comments, so I ask that you choose your words accordingly. Likewise, if you don’t want to work with me because I won’t tolerate racism in my life and business, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Questions: What is your reaction to the information above? What did I leave out? What are your concerns about racism in real estate? Let’s chat.

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Dude, my house is worth more now, right? Because of that one thing.

June 19, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

My house is worth more now, right? Or maybe it’s worth less because of that one thing? I get questions like this all the time, so here’s some thoughts swirling through my mind. Skim the headings or dig in. Anything to add?

Questions I’ve heard recently:

Will prices rise because a nearby restaurant got a Michelin Star?
Did my value go up because of the new arena in Downtown Sacramento?
My house is worth more because Lady Bird was filmed here, right?
Is my house worth more because of that $5M record sale?
Would values decline if a new hotel is constructed 1.5 miles away?
A new Starbucks down the street makes value go up, right?
Will it damage neighborhood values if there’s a cannabis facility nearby?
Will a new gas station impact neighborhood prices?
Will the Golden State Killer’s house affect my value?
Are values going to decline if the school district is taken over by the state?
How will adding a casino nearby affect value?
Will prices go down if that new teaching hospital happens?

Not a dissertation: Many of these questions are truly complex and they could be research papers. At the same time we read some of these and think, “C’mon man, there’s no way that impacts value.”

Quick truth: We can get so trigger-happy about thinking everything makes a difference for value, but that’s just not the case. It’s like when a home owner says, “Yo, I got a new faucet in the bathroom. How much does this add to value?” Probably nothing. The market just isn’t that sensitive.

My Michelin Star poll: I ran a poll on Twitter after getting a fantastic question about whether Sacramento’s first Michelin Star would be a positive for the surrounding residential neighborhood.

This wasn’t a scientific survey, but it’s interesting to hear what people think. I tend to agree with the majority too. My sense is the Michelin Star will give bragging rights to neighbors, but I’m not sure buyers would truly pay more in an entry-level area to be closer to a top-tier restaurant. Keep in mind if this restaurant did begin to help the commercial market thrive, then maybe that could spill over into the residential market. Otherwise let’s not overthink this.

Generally speaking: If something has little impact on an area, it’s probably not going to affect value much. Let’s remember that when making value claims and thinking through issues. But if something persuades or dissuades buyers, then it could be a big deal for the market. In other words, will people buy or rent for more or less because of the thing? This is the type of market-based thinking we need to consider.

The arena: As an example, the new arena in Downtown Sacramento has been a game-changer because it’s drawn people and other businesses into the city. It’s been a catalyst for development in the immediate market. But that doesn’t mean a buyer ten miles away would pay more for a house because of the new arena. I say fat chance.

Lady Bird: Would someone pay more for a house because the movie Lady Bird was filmed in the neighborhood? I’m not saying the answer is NO, but I just haven’t met a buyer yet who said, “I totally paid more because of Greta Gerwig’s cinematic masterpiece.” Objectively speaking, I can only find four listings that mention the movie too, and that may be telling.

Two takeaways:

1) One thing: Let’s be cautious about looking for value under every rock. What I mean is it would be wise to remember not everything we encounter is going to sway buyers to pay more or less.

2) Support: Let’s think critically and be sure to look to data to support our value conclusions. At the end of the day we can make claims about how a certain something impacts the market, but what do stats and data actually show? That’s what matters most.

“Beyond the Bubble” article: I wrote a piece for Comstock’s Magazine this month called Beyond the Bubble. These are things on my mind lately with so much talk about whether we’re in a bubble or not.

Questions: What questions have you been asked lately? Have you seen one type of business or something else impact an entire area? What do you think of any of the questions above? Let’s chat.

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Slow is not a dirty word in real estate

June 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 11 Comments

Slow is not a four-letter word. Well, technically it is. But in real estate it’s not a “four-letter” dirty word. Let’s talk about this, and then for those interested I have a huge market update below.

The situation: It’s easy to feel good about real estate when the stats are glowing because there’s always something positive to share. But when a market begins to slow it can feel uncomfortable for some because all of the sudden slower stats don’t line up with the rosy narrative that’s been used to describe the market.

The reality of slowing: The market has been slowing. What I mean is right now we’re seeing more subdued price growth in many portions of the country. In other words, prices just aren’t increasing like they were in the past. This doesn’t mean the market is dull or that it’s not really competitive, but it does mean competition is more intense than actual price growth in many cases.

Main point: I wanted to mention this because it’s important to recognize when markets change so we can back away from real estate cliches that may not fit current trends. Moreover, it’s crucial to find new language to describe the market as things either speed up or slow down. My advice? Pay attention to stats and let data inform your market narrative. Thus if you see the market slowing, it’s okay to say that. In fact, sometimes it’s the best thing sellers or buyers can hear.

Abusing price per sq ft: Last week I made a quick video to talk through the problem of abusing price per sq ft in real estate. Enjoy here if you wish.

As always, thanks for being here.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Spring is feeling fairly normal so far. In fact, May was actually a pretty strong month. What a difference from the doom we felt in 2018. Let’s talk about it.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Prices are up from the fall and it’s shaping up to be a strong spring
Prices aren’t up much from last year
There were more multiple offers this May compared to last May
Sales volume has slumped for 12 months
There are nearly 2,700 less sales this year
So far the spring has felt fairly normal
This post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal: The stats for May were strong and showed what we’d expect to see for the month. Prices showed an uptick, inventory remained low, it took less time to sell, the sales to list price ratio increased, etc… In short, the market feels a bit normal right now. This doesn’t mean it’s perfectly healthy, but from a stats perspective it’s been fairly normal.

More multiple offers: We saw more multiple offers this May compared to last year at the same time. I know, it’s barely up, but all year the number of multiple offers has been lagging, so this shows us a strong spring has sprung.

Blackstone: I mentioned last week that Blackstone (Invitation Homes) is starting to sell some homes in Sacramento. For now it looks like they’re offloading some non-performing inventory, so that’s how I plan to describe it unless new information comes to light. Keep in mind lots of headlines talk about Blackstone selling, but these headlines refer to stocks instead of homes. If you didn’t know, in recent weeks Blackstone sold $1B of their stock in Invitation Homes. This is big news of course because it means Blackstone is clearly making a move to exit the market. But this doesn’t mean Invitation Homes is going to exit the actual housing market by dumping all 80,000+ homes they own in the United States. I’m doubtful this is their plan since Invitation Homes is such a well-oiled mega-rental machine. But we’ll keep talking about this as needed.

Slower growth: Prices are up from last year, but they’re not up by much. The market feels really competitive, but we’re just not seeing insane price growth. Most metrics are up anywhere from 2-3% from last year. This reminds us it’s possible to have a really competitive market without insane price growth.

Highest sale ever in Sacramento County: There is now a $5M sale that just closed in the Sierra Oaks Vista neighborhood. It was a private sale and it’s the highest residential sale ever in Sacramento County. The ultra contemporary home was previously listed a couple times and here’s a video from Nick Sadek’s listing. I mention this because we are starting to see outlier sales like this pop up. This is a reflection of where prices are at, but it’s also a reflection of growing demand for the luxury market.

Michelin star: The big news locally is Sacramento got its first Michelin star for a restaurant called The Kitchen. Yesterday someone asked me if this star will affect property value in surrounding neighborhoods. I can comment later on that, but for now I have a Twitter poll going. Please vote.

Picky about getting into contract (and staying): I haven’t run stats on failure rate yet, but I hear from lots of real estate agents about buyers falling out of contract more often these days. I’ll have to run the numbers at some point, but I wanted to say it doesn’t surprise me to hear this. The reality is today’s buyers are incredibly picky about what they purchase. They’re choosy about condition, location, and price, so they take their time to get into contract. Moreover, since they don’t want to get stuck in a bad situation, if something doesn’t go right during an escrow, they’ll bail. Thus they’re picky about getting into contract AND staying in contract. Sellers, did you hear that? Buyers aren’t desperate.

A year of slumping volume: Sales volume in the region was strong for May and has rebounded substantially from a dreadful fall season, though technically volume has been down 12 months in a row in Sacramento County (and 13 months in the region). All things considered we’ve had 9% fewer sales, which means there have been 2,700 fewer homes sold this year. Keep in mind this is not the sign of a market meltdown, but it’s definitely safe to call this a slower year in terms of volume. This is something we have to keep watching. I suspect if rates go up, we could see volume slump again too.

Rates are doing the limbo: Rates keep doing the limbo by finding lower levels, and that tends to put a steroid in the market to create more competition. This is a big factor to watch since our market feels heavily influenced by the direction of rates right now. As a side note, if rates get really low it could lead to stronger price growth.

Getting back to the top: The median price in the region is now higher than the previous peak in 2005. It took us fourteen years to get back, which is the entire lifespan of my 8th grader. Anyway, in coming time we’ll surely have more “bubble” conversations because of this. But let’s be real. Many buyers are already wondering and having these conversations. Keep in mind the market in 2005 was much different than today and there is no such thing as a formula where the market “pops” when reaching 2005 levels. Technically, current values aren’t actually anywhere near 2005 when we consider inflation. But in my experience very few buyers actually think about inflation like this unless they’re statistics nerds. In case it helps, here’s a post I wrote about buyers worried about another housing bubble.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWING MOMENTUM: Despite the spring market clearly heating up, stats show the market is slowing down when we look at the rate of change by year. So while we might describe the market as “hot”, we can also describe it as slowing.

2) LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR: Check out the price metrics below. Can you see why I’m saying prices seem flat lately? This may not be true in every single price range or neighborhood of course, but this shows us price momentum is slowing. With that being said, it’s still okay to say the market is “hot”. It is. But I’d say competition is hotter than price appreciation.

3) SALES VOLUME SLUMP for 12 months: It’s important to look at sales volume in a few ways to get the bigger picture. Here it is by month and year.

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

May volume down 4.6%
Volume is down 9.2% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

May volume down 6.1%
Volume is down 8.3% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

May volume is up 2.7%
Volume is down 8.4% over the past 12 months

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

May volume down 4.9%
Volume is down 12.6% over the past 12 months

4) SPRING GETTING HOT: The market is heating up for 2019. We’re seeing price changes, low inventory, and increased sales volume.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

Quick note on how NOT to use my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Now here are a bunch of images. Please enjoy.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):