Ryan Lundquist

Is it just me or is the market slowing?

November 12, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 24 Comments

The market is slowing. We’ve been hearing that all over the place lately and it’s been a common clickable headline. But it’s not just hype because there’s some truth to it. Today I want to show this reality with a few visuals, mention three takeaways, and unpack a huge Sacramento market update for those interested. I hope this is helpful – whether you’re local or not.

Tighter Prices: Is the market slowing? How would you show that? Take a look at the rate of price changes in the images below and let me know what you see.

OCTOBER:

PAST 90 DAYS:

ENTIRE YEAR:

TAKEAWAYS:

1) Slowing: Prices are still up, but they’re not up by as much this year. What I mean is in years past we’d regularly see 7-10% price increases when running stats, but over the past few months we’re starting to see 4-6% increases instead. This helps show the market as a whole is slowing.

2) Dull fall & critical thinking: Stats have begun to change more significantly these past few months since a slower feel hit the market. A few months back sales volume dipped, but now after multiple months of lower volume this is becoming a trend (at least for the fall). As we watch this unfold and see that prices are much tighter together as I showed in the charts above, let’s consider two things: 1) Price stats today are more subdued in light of a much duller fall season (duh); and 2) Last year’s fall season ended up being a little more flat than usual, so higher prices from then could be helping this year’s numbers appear a little more depressed. I know, it sounds like I’m trying to soften the idea of the market slowing, but that’s not it at all. I’m thinking critically through the numbers and explaining in part why they are the way they are. Ultimately I find myself interpreting these numbers cautiously, and I think we need to get beyond this fall to see the bigger picture of what the numbers show us and where the trend is going to go.

3) Wide & narrow view: I chose to share stats in three ways on purpose to show something important. Did you notice a difference in the price change depending on how wide or narrow the dates were – whether 30 days, 90 days, or 12 months? Basically the more data we considered, the tighter the price gap was. This is a good reminder to look at the market in different ways to try to discern the trend. It’s also a good reminder to be careful of pulling older data because sometimes that can mask a trend that is happening right now.

The future: Naturally when hearing about momentum slowing in a market it’s easy to start predicting the future as we see price gaps tighten. Many say the market is going to crash, others say it will correct by 10%, and some say it will level off and progress into a state of balance. All three of these ideas have one thing in common. They’re guesses.

I hope that was helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Last year the fall season felt more flat than not, but this year is a different story. We are definitely having more of a dull seasonal lull that reminds us how the market felt in 2014 when the fall season was definitively soft. Here are some of the things I’m watching right now. I’d love to hear what you are seeing. Please comment below or send me an email.

Graphs for your newsletter and social media: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy my post verbatim).

Adjusting to rates: Buyers have seemed to back off the market a bit lately, and we’re seeing the effect of that with lower sales volume. What’s up with this? The culprit could be increasing interest rates and a growing lack of affordability.

Balancing of power: Buyers have gained more power in recent months, though I don’t think sellers got the memo since they are still struggling with overpricing and pretending it’s an aggressive market from 2013 instead of a slower market in 2018. This doesn’t mean buyers have total control though. Keep in mind 41% of all sales last month had multiple offers, which tells us it’s not the type of market where buyers can lowball sellers and get whatever price they want.

Pricing lower this fall: Since the summer the median price has softened by 4% in Sacramento County, 5% in the region, and 7% in Placer County. This doesn’t mean every neighborhood lost 4-7% in value. These are county stats and they don’t translate into every area or price range. Keep in mind it’s normal to see a 5% or so reduction in the median price during a given fall season, but this year it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more pronounced price difference between spring and fall (we’ll see how it pans out).

The story of sales volume: In September volume was down a whopping 16% in the region, and that raised lots of eyebrows to make people wonder if the market was starting to tank. This past month sales volume was not as weak, but it was still down nearly 9% in the region and about 4% in Sacramento County. Over time we need to keep watching this trend to better understand if it’s a sign of a definitive change in the market or if it’s the byproduct of a dull fall season (or both). One thing to remember is despite a few months of gloomy sales volume recently, volume is only down 2% in 2018 in the Sacramento region.

Listings did peak: I’ve been talking about listings looking like they were peaking for the past couple months, and the stats now definitely show listings have crested for the season. This is normal for the time of year as sellers tend to pull back from the market and wait until spring to list. This is why the fall sometimes feels like a market of leftovers since many sellers are waiting until the next year.

Concessions and credits: Buyers have more options today, so they’re tending to ask sellers more often for credits, repairs, and concessions. It would be wise for sellers to listen to buyers and be aware they may need to give something to get the deal done.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from September to October?

3) Where are we in relation to peak prices in 2005?

4) What’s happening with sales volume?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

October volume down 4%
2018 volume down 1% (January to October)
Annual volume is down 1.9% (past 12 months)
Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely been down over the past 4-5 months.

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

October volume down 8.8%
2018 volume down 2.1% (January to October)
Annual volume is down 2.5% (past 12 months)
Volume has been strong this year overall, but it’s been down over the past 4-5 months.

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

October volume down 20.6%
2018 volume down 4.9% (January to October)
Annual volume is down 5.4% (past 12 months)

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 60 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What do you see happening in the market right now? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take.

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A hair stylist says we’re not in a bubble…

November 6, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 22 Comments

Everywhere I go people are talking about housing. So it wasn’t a surprise to have a market conversation with a hair stylist while flying to Texas last week. We talked about real estate bubbles and mullets. Anyway, here’s a few quick takeaways and some thoughts after attending an amazing conference called AppraiserFest.

Of course I shared this conversation on Twitter:

TAKEAWAYS:

1) Opinions: Everyone has an opinion about what the market is doing or will do in the future. These days when I meet people I tend to ask them what they think is happening, and I’m always grateful and fascinated to hear responses. The truth is I like to hear opinions, but the bigger issue is an opinion without influence from local data isn’t that meaningful, whether it’s from a hair stylist, economist, or real estate professional.

2) Local data: The only thing that really matters right now is local data. What do the stats say the market is doing? What is the word on the street? What are we hearing from sellers and buyers? What is normal and not normal for a slower fall season? More than ever we need to pay attention and sometimes sift through the hype of doom & gloom real estate headlines too. This market presents us an opportunity to be objective, honest about not knowing the future exactly, and creative to find ways to describe what the market is doing. On a side note I’ll have my big monthly market update posted next week.

3) Mullets: Speaking of mullets, six years ago I helped coin the term “parcel mullet” to explain the phenomenon of having a short lawn in the front and a long lawn in the back. Either you think that’s hilarious or now you know I’m immature.

REAL ESTATE “ISLANDS”

I just got back from a conference called AppraiserFest. It was incredible to hang with nearly 300 other appraisers for a few days in San Antonio. I was honored to speak too. Anyway, here’s a couple of things on my mind that I wanted to share as an encouragement to real estate professionals.

1) Islands: It’s easy in real estate to go about things alone or be an “island” so to speak. But growing professionally and learning often involves intentionally being around people who will help us grow. I know this seems basic, but often appraisers are solo artists and completely isolated. That’s not a good thing, and it’s one reason why it was so powerful to see appraisers come together.

2) Finding people: With so much talk about the market changing, it’s critical to be surrounded by people who are accurately interpreting the market and helping us think through issues. My encouragement is to find others to help you think out of the box when it comes to real estate trends (and being successful in any market). I realize that’s a bit vague, but it’s something that needs to happen. As a side note I read Jonathan Miller’s Housing Notes every Friday without fail, and that’s one practical thing I do to help keep my mind sharp. For me Jonathan is one of those people who speaks into my life from afar and I’m better for it. That’s one reason why it was a real pleasure to meet him in person this past week.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Market update video: Here’s a video I did with Realtor Doug Reynolds a couple weeks ago to talk through the fall market. Check it out if you’d like. If you want to do something like this too, let me know.

NOTE about this video: Someone asked me how much I charge to share a video with an agent like the one above. In short, I will NEVER do that. I shared this because I was in the video and the content is worth digesting. I did this video for free with Doug and that’s what I do with everyone. I have a couple more video shoots on the docket and I may share those eventually too, but only if they actually fit with what I’m saying. If a video doesn’t add value or fit within what I’m trying to say, then it won’t get shared. Make sense? Hopefully so.

Questions: In what places are you having real estate conversations lately? What voices are you listening to right now that are helping you grow and think through the market?

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Is a blue kitchen all the rage or too much?

October 30, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 24 Comments

A blue kitchen? I recently saw a loud kitchen and I hoped we could talk about it. Is this the new trend? Do buyers crave color? Here’s some photos, a quick interview with the investor behind this, and some takeaways.

This home is in an older area near Downtown Sacramento.

I’ve been seeing more shelves in kitchens lately too. Have you?

What do you think of that hood and vent?

The bathroom also has blue. Notice the loud tile too?

Q&A with Slavic Avetisov (owner / investor):

Why did you go with blue? The reason I went with blue was because I wanted something really trendy, something out of a magazine. I figured there is no better place to do it than near downtown. I’ve sold two other homes in the area to Bay Area buyers, so I figured if my buyers for this house were from the Bay Area they would like the blue. So I went with my gut and against everyone’s opinion, including my wife (she wasn’t liking the blue idea). But after I did she said it wasn’t bad.

Are there any other colors we need to look out for? As far as colors, hard to say. Personally if I find another house in the area, I might do green, like army green (black and green). I have to feel the house though. It depends on the feel of the house as well as market demand. I read up on blue before doing it, and all those architectural digest magazines were writing how a blue bathroom would add 5k to sell off your house. But you can’t just paint it blue and call it a day. Everything had to be properly put together.

What sort of feedback did you get about the cabinets? It wasn’t on the market long enough to get feedback (had a quick full price offer). However, I was looking at a house in the neighborhood to flip, and the sales agent was running my ear off about my house until I told her that I did it. She replied by saying she’s been telling everyone about it. As far as comments in regards to not having enough kitchen space, my thoughts were: 1) Bay Area buyers are used to being in a small apartment or a room rental so they won’t have lots of stuff; 2) People that want to live in that area, downtown, midtown etc… aren’t going to be doing much cooking, but more going out. That’s why I proceeded with open shelves on top & no cabinets. The brick and the exhaust hood vent pipe gave it a loft feeling. I think the butcher block complimented the house age and gave the blue a tone down & a good feel rather than granite or quartz.

TAKEAWAYS:

1) The color trend: I’ve seen a shade of blue in three different kitchens recently. Design magazines earlier this year were talking about seeing more color in the kitchen. Were they right?

2) Location: Certain upgrades and types of architecture work well in some areas and not in others. I suppose the shade of blue matters too. Anyway, a trendy area might favor a colorful kitchen, but a 55+ community might completely reject it. At the end of the day location means everything.

3) The market doesn’t care if we like it: The market doesn’t care if we personally like something or not. This is why we need to remain objective when valuing properties. What will the market pay? That’s the only relevant question.

UPDATE: Props to the multiple real estate agents who emailed me photos of a blue kitchen in a model home in the Folsom Ranch neighborhood. The blue trend is alive.

A closing blended example:

This is quite the mishmash, right? Either you love it or hate it. Is it okay to blend architectural styles? Is it beautiful or a travesty? A friend on Twitter said, “Wow, the elusive Rustic Modern Dutch Colonial.” Thank you to a colleague in Boston for letting me use this photo (he didn’t want to be identified).

The point: From a value perspective the only thing that matters here is what buyers are willing to pay.

NEW FALL VIDEO: Last week I made a quick video to talk through the fall season (inventory, sales volume, price, and days on market). Enjoy if you wish.

Questions: What do you think of blue kitchens? Could blue be worth more? What’s the big takeaway here in your mind? I’d love to hear your take.

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When there’s no other manufactured homes in the neighborhood

October 23, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

What do you do if you’re trying to value a manufactured home and there aren’t any comps in the market? I’ve been asked this a few times lately, so I wanted to pitch in some thoughts.

PUZZLE APPROACH: There isn’t one easy way to approach this, so when appraising something challenging I tend to look at a property like a puzzle where my goal is to find clues into value by considering a number of factors.

THINGS TO CONSIDER:

1) Older sales: There might not be any recent sales over the past 3-6 months, but what about older sales? There’s nothing wrong with looking at sales over the past few years and then figuring out how much the market has changed since those properties sold. This is exactly what I did when appraising a manufactured home in Carmichael recently. There were no recent sales and the most relevent one I could find was from 2016. I used that sale and simply adjusted for the market increasing in value over time.

2) Competitive markets: If sales are sparse in the neighborhood or city, why not look to competitive markets? When appraising in Carmichael I looked to Fair Oaks, Orangevale, and Citrus Heights. Of course I didn’t blindly choose sales. No, I had to be thoughtful about comp selection by making sure the other areas really were selling at a similar level. After all, there are portions of the other locations that could easily sell for more or less than portions of Carmichael.

Beyond one mile? Remember, it’s okay to use “comps” outside of a one-mile radius, but it’s suspect to cherry-pick higher sales further away when there are better (and lower) ones nearby. Here’s a good saying. It’s not how far you can go for comps, but where you should go.

3) If it was stick built: In my experience manufactured homes usually sell for less than stick-built homes. Duh, thanks Captain Obvious. But for the sake of being objective I’m leery about saying stuff like, “It’s going to sell for less than a stick-built home every time”. Anyway, my point is I can ask what the subject might sell for if it was a stick-built home in the neighborhood. Then at least I have a figure in mind as to what the highest possible price might be for the subject.

4) Subject sale: Has the subject sold in the past? If it was a reasonable sale at the time, it might give clues into value. What other locations were competitive at the time? Did it seem to sell toward the higher or lower end of the competitive market? Did it sell for more or less than other stick built homes?

5) Manufactured vs stick built: What’s the price difference between manufactured and stick built homes? That’s a good question. It’s not easy to answer if we don’t have sales in the market, so this is where we might look to a nearby market with more manufactured homes (not ones found in mobile home parks). When comparing manufactured vs stick-built homes, what sort of percentage price difference do we see? I’m not saying we should just take a percentage like this and apply it to stick-built “comps” in the subject neighborhood, but there could be some data here we might end up using. Remember, this is a piece of the puzzle or clue into value rather than the entire solution to value.

6) Ask for advice on finding sales in MLS: One of the challenges with manufactured homes is knowing how to find them in MLS. I suggest starting a map search as I show below. You might also do a single family home search and type in “manufactured” in the property description to see if anything comes up. Ultimately it might be worth it to ask a few colleagues how they find stuff in MLS.

7) Bottom & Top: Sometimes when dealing with a challenging property we have to ask ourselves where the top and bottom of the price market is in the neighborhood. At the least this gives us some context for where the value of the subject property might fit. In Carmichael I looked to the market and saw the lowest sales were closer to $300,000 and the highest competitive sales were just above $400,000. I realize this is a huge range, but at the least this gives me something to work with. Also, if my value is coming in below the bottom of a reasonable range, that’s a prod for me to keep digging for better comps and data (unless there’s a reason why the value should be lower).

8) Land value: Let’s not forget about land value. It’s worth asking what the site would sell for if it was vacant. This isn’t the main approach to value, but it’s a piece of the puzzle. The problem is if I’m relying heavily on one manufactured home comp in the market, but land value alone is more than that comp sold for, then maybe that one “comp” sold for too little.

CLOSING THOUGHTS: It really is like a puzzle when valuing something without the benefit of recent similar sales. My advice? Try to piece together many details like the ones above to help collectively paint a picture of value.

I hope that was helpful.

Photo credit: Thank you Realtor Sandy Muzinich for letting me use photos.

NEW VIDEO MARKET UPDATE: A couple of days ago I made a video to talk through the latest stats. It’s 10+ minutes and I talk through prices, inventory and sales volume. Enjoy if you wish.

Questions: What point stands out to you the most? Anything else to add? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Ryan Lundquist

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