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Ryan Lundquist

Overpricing, multiple offers, & hot ranges

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The market is hot. But it’s not so hot that you can command any price you want. Today I have a quick post to show a few trends. These are brand new visuals with some great takeaways (I think). Enjoy if you wish.

1) MULTIPLE OFFERS

Huge change this year: There were 39.3% more multiple offers this October compared to last year at the same time. This speaks to how much more competitive the market has been lately. While we are experiencing a slight seasonal slowing right now, the market is far more competitive than it should be for the time of year.

Not everything: Last month 32% of listings had price reductions. In short, even though the market is super aggressive it doesn’t mean everything is selling above the list price.

10-20 Offers: This year we’ve seen substantially more properties with 10-20 offers compared to last year. The highest number of offers last month was 37 too (just in case you want to sound super smart).

Here’s a look at 5-10 offers too. What a difference!!

NOTE: Our MLS has two fields called “multiple offers” and “number of offers.” This is how I’m extracting the data.

2) THE MOST AGGRESSIVE PRICE RANGES:

This is geeky stuff, but it’s so important for understanding the market isn’t the same in every price range or neighborhood.

The most aggressive: The most aggressive price range in the Sacramento region is between $300,000 to $400,000 (not a shocker). The sales price to original list price ratio is 101.65%, which basically means properties in this range sold on average 1.65% above the original price. In short, the lower the price, the more aggressive the market is. Keep in mind there are few sales below $300,000, so don’t write home over that lower stat. 

The most overpriced range: This year we’ve had explosive growth with the number of million dollar sales as there have literally been twice as many over the past four months compared to last year. But this price range is also the most overpriced. On average sales above one million dollars last month closed about six percent lower than their original list price. At times million dollar listings are literally priced hundreds of thousands of dollars too high (or even millions). 

And one more visual to show last year vs this year…

Market update: In this market update video I talk quickly through eleven trends. I hope you walk away with some insight. Enjoy if you wish.

Free webinar next week: I’m doing a big market update next week for SAFE Credit Union on November 19th from 9-10am PST. It’s free to anyone and it’ll hopefully be some good background noise while working. Register here.

QUICK CLOSING ADVICE:

1) Price reasonably and you should be able to get at least a few offers.

2) Price too high and you’ll likely get zero offers (seriously).

3) Sellers, you don’t need to aim to get twenty offers. I suggest aiming for a few solid offers. My stats even show you don’t need 20 offers to get the highest price.

4) Sellers, aim for the market instead of that mythical unicorn Bay Area buyer who will mysteriously overpay for some reason.

5) Buyers, study your competition in your price range and offer accordingly. There is a good chance you may need to offer above list and have cash to pay any difference between the contract price and a lower appraisal. This is not easy on buyers, but it’s the dynamic out there right now.

6) Buyers, start looking at properties that have been on the market for 30 days or more. These ones are likely overpriced and it may be easier to get into contract on something like that.

7) Other. What else?

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What are you seeing in various price ranges? I’d love to hear your take from your vantage point in the trenches.

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Why your home isn’t worth 16% more today

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Home prices have been massive lately, but there is an asterisk. It’s easy to look at glowing stats and say, “Dude, prices are up 16%, so my house is worth 16% more.” But lofty county or regional price stats don’t always show up the same in a neighborhood. Let’s talk about this.

TWO REASONS WHY PRICES ARE SO HIGH ON PAPER:

1) The top & bottom: There have been more sales at the top of the market and fewer sales at the bottom. In fact, when comparing the past four months this year with last year, we’ve seen 20% fewer sales under $400,000 and 75% more sales above $750,000. Here is a brand new visual to show the change in various price ranges. If you’re not in Sacramento, is this happening in your area too?

The effect: Having a big change in volume at the lowest prices and a hefty change at the top has simply boosted price metrics. Thus on paper price stats are really high compared to last year, but when pulling comps in a neighborhood we don’t always see anywhere close to this sort of explosive growth. 

Here’s another way to look at the same data:

2) Larger homes: I’ve mentioned this before and I’m not trying to beat the dead horse, but during the pandemic buyers have been purchasing noticeably larger homes over the past four months. Do you see the spike? In short, having larger homes has boosted price stats, so when talking about growth it’s good to remember that part of the reason for higher prices is due to larger homes selling more often. 

The takeaway: There is no mistaking the market has increased in value quite a bit this year. I’m not saying it hasn’t. I’m just saying if we’re not careful it’s easy to get infatuated with lofty regional price stats which can sometimes blur our vision for a neighborhood market. My advice? Know why the numbers are the way they are and focus on comps instead of county or zip code stats. Moreover, don’t expect the market to be the same temperature with every location, price range, or property type.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Have you seen some neighborhoods where prices have risen greatly and others where growth is more subdued? Did I miss anything? Any stories to share?

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Condos, halfpipes, & cooling 2-4 units

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I have two compelling trends to share today, but fist let’s talk about a concrete halfpipe at an investor flip. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

An investor friend just bought a house in Auburn with a halfpipe in the backyard. I’ll admit the middle school skater kid in me is stoked while the middle-aged man in me wants to relive my glory days… But what should Erin do as a flipper? Should she keep it or rip it out? Is this an asset or a liability?

This is a fun conversation, but there is a serious element here because investors come across interesting things all the time and have to make real-life decisions like this. So put your real estate cap on and let me know what you think in the comments.

Check out Erin’s Instagram (thanks for letting me share).

TWO TRENDS TO WATCH:

1) Condo sales are down 14.1% this year: I mentioned last month that condos haven’t been as popular and here’s a brand new visual to show what I mean. In short, buyers have been more focused on detached homes, which likely stems from wanting more space, privacy, and a larger backyard during the pandemic. Of course in the background low rates are a big factor because they give buyers more purchasing power (and thus shape what they can buy).

2) The cooling 2-4 unit market in Midtown: The single family market has been showing huge price increases in the Sacramento region, but the 2-4 unit market in Midtown isn’t the same temperature. When looking at the graph below do you see a flattening of prices lately? Does this surprise you?

This is something to watch and we have to keep rent control and eviction moratoriums on the suspect list when trying to understand this softer trend. Yet one of the bigger issues is these units have had massive price growth in recent years while rent growth has been slowing lately. Thus at some point when investors crunch the numbers it doesn’t make sense to pay more. For reference there isn’t an oversupply of listings in this market and demand is still strong.

Keep in mind other portions of Sacramento with lower-priced 2-4 units have still been showing an increase. These other areas have rent control too, which helps me think the flattening in Midtown is more related to flirting with a price ceiling.

Anyway, I’m thinking out loud and we need more time to see the trend. By the way, thanks to Brian McMartin and Franco Garcia for having conversations with me this week about this sub-market. I really value hearing what others are seeing out there as I run stats and interpret them.

Big point 1: The market isn’t the same everywhere.

Big point 2: Don’t take the trend in Midtown and project it on other 2-4 unit properties in the region. See point #1.

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Should the halfpipe stay or go? Why? Any thoughts about the two trends I shared? I’d love to hear your take.

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Can it count in the square footage?

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Can you include it in the square footage? I get questions like this almost every week. Is it okay to count an accessory dwelling in the living area? What about a pool house? How about a man cave or she shed? Let’s talk about this.

The straight dope: It’s tempting to lump something else in the backyard into the square footage, but that’s not appropriate per ANSI measuring standards. Basically if you have to walk outside of the house into something else that is not directly accessible to the house, we’re really dealing with something that isn’t considered to be a part of the main house. So we call that something else a studio, casita, accessory unit, pool house, she shed, or whatever. It’s just not the main house, which is why it’s not included within the square footage. 

New video: I made a video to talk through some things to watch in the fall market. Enjoy if you wish (or watch here).

An Example: If you have a house at 2,500 sq ft and an accessory unit at 1,200 sq ft, it isn’t a 3,700 sq ft house. No, this is fundamentally a 2,500 sq ft house with something else. Could it be worth the same amount as a 3,700 sq ft house? Maybe. But if we only compare this type of home with other 3,700 sq ft units, we haven’t really proved what a 2,500 sq ft house with a 1,200 sq ft accessory unit is worth. The best comps will be other homes with accessory dwellings, right? Heck, maybe it’s worth even more. But we’ll never know unless we find the right comps to tell the story of value. The quick “comps” are all 3,700 sq ft, but those might not be the best representations of value.

The problem: If a property is priced based on a lumped square footage, what happens when the appraiser gets out there and needs to use smaller-sized comps that are consistent with the actual size of the main house? Is there going to be a difference in value?

The truth: It’s not an easy pill to swallow when the appraiser doesn’t include the extra space in the square footage, but just because it doesn’t count in the square footage doesn’t mean it doesn’t count in the value.

But they’re lumped together in MLS: I know, this happens all the time. A property will be sold with a lumped square footage of the main house and the pool house. We even see this happen at times in Tax Records. Let’s remember a few things: 1) The way a property is marketed doesn’t change what a property is; 2) As a non-lawyer I wonder if there is increased liability for representing a home at a larger size than it is (hopefully there is an asterisk that clarifies what the square footage represents); 3) The appraiser is very likely going to treat the two areas differently instead of lumping them together.

My advice? Instead of quickly pulling larger “comps” right away, try to isolate features such as a pool house, accessory dwelling, or outbuilding to determine what they’re worth in addition to the value of the main house. In other words, what is the main house plus the extra thing in the backyard worth? That’s the math market equation we have to figure out and it can be done by pouring through lots of data. Finding a few examples of homes that have sold with that feature is the ideal so we can try to discover what that feature commanded in terms of value. Sometimes we might even look through years of sales too. Remember we might not use really old sales as comps, but we can certainly use them for research.

Resources:
Q&A on accessory dwellings
Tips for valuing ADUs
Using older sales is sometimes the best option
Can a basement be considered square footage?

Anyway, I hope that was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Any stories to share? What follow-up questions or insight do you have? Did I miss anything?

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