Appraisal Stuff

Watching listings, the word on the street, & being negative

April 9, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 21 Comments

This shabby chic piece hangs in my office and I love the phrase. The market is always moving. It’s just true. This means there is always something new to say and understand about housing trends.

Anyway, here are four things on my mind:

1) Watching listings: I am getting many questions about what prices are doing, but we just don’t have many sales yet. Like I said last week, only 2.9% of all sales in March actually got into contract after March 12th, which is the day our pandemic seemed to kick into high gear with events cancelling and such. While we don’t have many sales yet, we do have listings which will give us clues where the market is heading. Are you seeing price reductions? Are properties sitting instead of selling? Are new listings tending to get into contract at lower levels than recent sales or current pendings? Are buyers absorbing inventory or not?

2) Don’t be so negative: I’ve been told a few times lately to lay off talking so negatively about the market, but what I’m doing is sharing facts. In truth I’m not being positive or negative. My goal is to be neutral and sling perspective without sensationalism. In other words, let’s talk about the market that actually exists while not getting swept away in every scary headline that may or may not happen. The reality is facts are neutral and less-than-positive sounding stats are not a threat either because they help us make decisions.

3) Mindset vs market conditions: In real estate it’s tempting to only speak positively about the housing market. It’s like a Harry Potter world, but instead of not being able to say the name of you know who, we cannot talk about the market changing (sorry if you didn’t get the reference). The bottom line is there’s a huge difference between having a positive mindset in life and being real about market conditions. Those are two distinct things.

4) Word on the street: Right now we are beginning to get some solid pandemic real estate data which I share below, but we’re still waiting to see exactly what happens to the direction of prices over time. This is why the word on the street is so powerful. What are buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals saying, doing, and believing about the market? The truth is the stories of today become the stats of tomorrow. On that note, here is a Twitter poll I have going. There is nothing scientific here, but it’s fascinating to have these conversations. One day left if you want to jump in.

Okay, moving on.

A FEW RESOURCES:

Zoom call this morning: If you’re around, I’m doing a public Zoom session on Thursday April 8 at 11am. A local real estate office asked me to do this and they opened it up to anyone. Hopefully there is not a cap to the number of people. Anyway, you can see the Facebook event for details or click here to sign in on Zoom. I’ll give a brief market update and then we’ll do Q&A.

UPDATE: Here’s a recording of the Zoom meeting.

New market video: Here is a new market video from a few days ago. This is 20 minutes. I’ve been having a blast and I’ll keep doing these as long as people keep watching. Check it out below or here.

Mike DelPrete: If you’ve watched any of my videos lately I’ve mentioned Mike DelPrete’s graphs and analysis. This guy is bringing important perspective. Here’s a 29-minute webinar from last week.

Fresh pandemic real estate visuals: Here are some visuals to show how the pandemic is affecting the local market. Right now we don’t have much data on prices, but that will come in time.

I hope this was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Why do you think it’s so tempting to talk about real estate in glowing terms? What do you think of my thoughts on market conditions vs mindset?

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Working with appraisers during a pandemic

March 26, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 28 Comments

Are appraisers still working? This is probably the question I’ve had most over the past week, so I wanted to unpack some thoughts.

1) Yes & No: Most appraisers are working and it seems like the bulk of appraisers working for lenders are still walking through the interior. There are definitely some appraisers who are not inspecting the interior though (myself included). Some sources say appraisers are deemed an “essential” service during the pandemic, though not everyone agrees.

2) Exterior focus announced: Fannie Mae and various banks have announced a temporary emphasis on exterior-only and desktop appraisals. When hearing this it’s easy to think every future appraisal is going to be a “drive-by”, but that’s not the case. In fact, traditional appraisals are still going to be in play for various types of loans and my guess is they’ll be the product of choice as long as they’re available. There is lots of conversation too about appraisers technically focusing on the outside but also getting information about the inside of the home through photos and video. Here is a table Fannie Mae published on Monday show what is possible, but we’ll have to wait and see how it all unfolds in the local market.

Keep in mind the lender sets the tone here and it’s not up to the appraiser to decide whether to do an exterior-only appraisal or not. However, an appraiser needs to believe a credible value can happen with a more limited scope of work, so appraisers won’t blindly say YES to an exterior-only appraisal if there’s not enough information. Lastly, just because a lender or AMC asks an appraiser to do something doesn’t mean the appraiser has to say yes.

3) Time: It’s going to take some time to see how this all shakes out. We’ll know much more in coming weeks. For instance, we haven’t heard from FHA yet.

4) Practical tips for real estate agents: It might help to take extra photos or video of a home before you list just in case it comes in handy for the appraiser. You might also consider being ready to talk with the appraiser about things such as layout, interior charm, age of improvements, quality of finish work, or anything you might understand more fully by actually walking through a home. If an appraiser is doing a desktop appraisal, I’m not certain the appraiser will call you or not, so you may want to include extra details in your MLS descriptions. This of course isn’t anything new because sharing property details is useful in any market. Please consider using my Appraiser Info Sheet to help tell the story of the property.

5) Private appraisals: If you are looking for a private appraisal, I can’t recommend enough being willing to color outside the lines. Would it be ideal to have the appraiser observe the interior in person? Yes. But during this pandemic it’s important to work with what we have and keep everyone safe. I have private clients who are working with me to use FaceTime to walk through a property (or the Google Duo app for an Android). I also have clients who have sent me 50+ photos of the interior and a very detailed written or verbal description of the property. Of course some appraisals for complex properties or geared toward court might need to wait.

6) Questions for appraisers: I’m not trying to ruffle feathers, but I think we’re at a place where it’s critical for appraisers to strongly consider whether they should be going into occupied homes. I have the utmost respect for peers, and that’s why I want to bring this up. So I ask, where is the line for us? At what point would you personally begin to pull back? How bad would it have to get? When is it deemed too risky for you and others? If you aren’t visiting your friends and family right now out of precaution, is it okay to go into homes of other people’s friends and family? I realize these questions are direct and there is also a cost to saying NO, but we have a serious situation going on right now. I have definitely lost business lately in light of saying NO to private clients, but that’s okay for this season. I don’t mention this to be combative and I hope to not be fielding angry emails all day. I love my peers and I’m concerned that we’re being asked to go inside homes right now. My strong opinion is we need to stop inspecting the interior of occupied homes. But put more lightly I’d say I think we’re at a place where appraisers need to show resistance to lenders for the sake of public health. Lastly, I realize not all areas of the country are the same in terms of COVID-19 cases (just in case you were ready to destroy me).

A few closing things.

Zoom session: If you want some background noise while quarantining, here’s a Zoom session I did yesterday hosted by KW Elk Grove. We talked about market stats, trends, and then fielded questions. It seemed like most questions were about how to see the current market and choosing comps. This is 100% off the cuff. Enjoy if you wish. Watch below or here.

New market update video: Here is a new market update video from two days ago. This is 20 minutes. Watch below or here.

Fresh daily visuals: During this pandemic I’ve upped my stats game and I’m finding new ways to visualize how the market is moving. Here are four images I’m updating every single day. If you have ideas for images too, I’m open ears. Remember, it’s tempting to focus on prices, but we see change happen first in the listings and pendings.

I hope this was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: If you work in real estate, what types of appraisals are you seeing happen? If you are an appraiser, what’s your take on interior inspections?

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How much value does a pool really add?

February 18, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 18 Comments

What is a built-in pool worth? I get asked this question all the time. Well, let’s look at some fresh stats to help show why there isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer.

New Pool Stats: I pulled some stats and I’m excited to share these. If you aren’t local, does your market look similar regarding pools? Also, what other property features besides pools could we look at this way?

BIG POINTS:

– There are more pools at higher prices
– There are less pools at lower prices
– The percentage of pools differs greatly by location
– Some areas have tiny lots, so there are less pools
– The market expects a pool in some price ranges

THE HUGE VALUE POINT:

It’s easy to get stuck giving the same value adjustment every time we see a pool, but the market doesn’t pay the same amount for a pool everywhere because buyers have different expectations based on location and price range. So a pool probably isn’t worth anything in Antarctica while it’s worth way more in Arizona. As local stats show, in some areas like Granite Bay, buyers hands-down expect a pool to be present while in other places pools are extremely rare. Of course just because a pool is not common doesn’t mean it doesn’t add value. I’m just saying this gives us pause to consider the value of a pool might not be the same everywhere.

SORRY: I know I didn’t answer the question in my blog title, but that’s on my purpose. My goal is to give us something to think about rather than a bogus adjustment that isn’t going to apply everywhere. But if you do want to find out what a pool is worth, start comparing homes with and without pools to see if you can discern a price difference.

MARKET UPDATE VIDEO: Here’s a market update I did a few weeks ago. It’s about 40 minutes. Enjoy below (or here) if you wish.

SPEAKING GIGS THIS WEEK: On Friday I’m talking at the Gold County Women’s Council of Realtors. Then on Monday night I’m talking at the Real Estate Round Table (at a tavern).

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What stands out to you about the data above? What is the most or least value you’ve ever seen for a built-in pool? Anything to add?

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Tax Records is not the definitive source for square footage

January 22, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 49 Comments

Why is the appraiser saying it’s only 1,400 sq ft? Tax Records shows the home is 600 sq ft larger. This issue comes up ALL the time, so let’s talk about it.

MY BIG POINT: I can’t speak for every market across the country, but I’ll say there can be a difference between what the building department has on file for a house and what is listed in the Assessor’s Records. In my market Realist is what we call Tax Records and that data comes from the Assessor. In my experience it is usually pretty good, but sometimes it’s completely off because it doesn’t actually reflect what is permitted. This means we need to look to a source that does (or should) keep reliable records on building permits. And that source would be the building department instead of the Assessor.

The truth: The Assessor’s records are generally reliable, but I’m just saying sometimes they’re not. Why is this? At times it’s as simple as the original builder not turning in accurate information when a house was built. Or maybe an owner took out permits but official records were never updated. Of course we’ve all seen instances where the tax roll shows two units on one lot, but there’s really just one house nowadays. Let’s not forget sometimes owners do an addition without permits, so the Assessor might actually be correct even though the house is technically larger or has even sold on MLS as a larger home. For reference, here are ten reasons why an appraiser’s sketch might be different.

TWO SITUATIONS ON MY DESK:

1) Garage included in the square footage: I recently measured a house for a Realtor that was about 1,100 sq ft despite Tax Records stating it was nearly 1,600 sq ft. Based on my sketch it looks like the Assessor had the garage included in the square footage for whatever reason. I’ve definitely seen basements included in the square footage too.

2) Non-permitted area included: I’m also working on something where the tax roll shows an area at nearly 2,500 sq ft but about half this space isn’t actually permitted. Look, most of the time Tax Records is pretty much right (especially in tract areas), but in this case it’s scarily inaccurate. One of the problems is in Sacramento County home owners can “correct” property characteristics in Tax Records by submitting a sketch from an appraiser. I get the idea here, but what if the area in the sketch was not actually permitted (and the appraiser hopefully disclosed that in the report)? It would seem like verifying square footage as permitted would be a nice touch when adding square footage into the tax roll, but I’m afraid that doesn’t always happen. It certainly didn’t happen in the case on my desk and I’ve seen many other instances where an area that was not permitted ended up being reflected as square footage in the Assessor’s information (and then Realist).

UPDATE: The chief appraiser at the Sacramento County Assessor’s office commented on my post and I wanted to link to it here. I think he provides some helpful context (and he’s a really nice guy).

Closing advice: If something doesn’t seem right about the square footage, start digging further. Most of the time you’re likely going to be able to trust records, but sometimes they’re going to be off. So when something doesn’t smell right about the size, quality of work, setbacks, etc… it’s time to call the building department to see what permits are on file. I never rat out an owner either, so I don’t call and say, “Hey, this house measured 2,300 sq ft, but what do your records say?” Nope. I would call and ask, “Can you help a brother out? What do your records show for square footage and anything else that has been permitted?” Also, if you’re in Sacramento, here is a link that shows building permits online (you’re welcome). Lastly, remember that it’s not enough that permits were pulled. Were permits finaled? That’s the real question.

I hope this was helpful. This could honestly be a dissertation and what I’ve written only scrapes the surface. Please add your comments below.

Questions: Any stories to share or advice about relying on Tax Records (or not)? How is your market different than mine? Anything to add?

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