Here is a graph of unemployment in Sacramento County since 1990 to give a panoramic view of the job market. It’s amazing to consider the history of where we’ve been (and maybe a bit depressing too).

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What do you see above? Anything stand out to you?

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But why is inventory low? Is it because of a coming “wave” of foreclosures or a “shadow” inventory? Do sellers have less confidence in the market? Do banks have something to do with it?

I talked with Eric Peterson of Praxis Capital about the issue of low inventory. Eric’s company pays very close attention to the market as they flip about 125 houses a year in the Greater Sacramento area. Watch the video below (or here).

What do you think? Anything else you’d add? Is there a looming shadow inventory? If you are an agent, buyer or seller, what’s it been like in the trenches for you lately?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

Not many houses for sale: We’ve seen a huge drop in housing supply in the Sacramento area. Check out the graph above of Sacramento, Placer, Yolo and El Dorado Counties. Source: Trendgraphix, Inc.

Sacramento vs. Placer County: It’s interesting to see Placer County and Sacramento County median sales prices juxtaposed. I’m particularly interested to see how the trend evolves in the next six months. There is a slight uptick evidenced as of late and the Sacramento Association of Realtors blog reported an increase in median sales price level in April also. Only time will tell to see how that further unfolds. This graph comes from Joel Wright of Wright Real Estate (used with permission).

The Unemployment Saga: How is unemployment doing in the Sacramento area? Here is a historical glimpse of unemployment in Sacramento County from January 1990 through March 2012. I keep a running graph each month like this. If you need a larger size for a presentation or your blog, let me know (just keep my blog URL in the graph and see my sharing policy). Data source: EDD.

Current Unemployment Trends: As of March 2012 the unemployment rate per EDD in Sacramento County is 11.4%, which is similar to the rate during June 2009. It’s been so nice to see a decline from the high of 13.2% in July 2010, but there has been a slight uptick lately as you can see above. Unemployment rates tend to fluctuate, so it’s understandable to see the rate experience a little increase during recent months, but we just need it to decline to see housing improve. Bottom line.

California vs. Sacramento: How does the Sacramento area stack up against price trends in the rest of California? This graph shows the median price in California compared to the Sacramento area. The graph comes from Joel Wright of Wright Real Estate (used with permission).

Distressed vs. Traditional Sales: The Calculated Risk blog has some pretty amazing content. Be careful when you visit though because you might get stuck there for a while. The graph above is used with permission and is taken from a post that deals with distressed vs. traditional sales in Sacramento. The blog post states, “In April 2012, 60.7% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was up from 59.6% last month, and down from 66.8% in April 2011. This is lower than the last few years, but 60% distressed is still extremely high!” This is right in line with what I’ve been saying all along too as I’m cautious about focusing on smaller bits of good news in light of the overall context of the local economy and housing market. Granted, there are some positive signs with low inventory, small price increases and distressed sales going down, but we have a long way to go. Read more with two recent posts ”Juggling short sales and foreclosures in Sacramento” and “Weighing the distressed market in Sacramento.” Click HERE for a larger image of graph above.

What stands out to you? I’d love to hear your comments below.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

Is this interesting to anyone besides me? Or am I just a numbers geek?

For reference, The Sacramento Business Journal reported yesterday on a decreased level of notice of defaults (NODs) during the first quarter in both California and Sacramento County. Theoretically, if there are less defaults this year, we should see the percentage of foreclosures continue to decrease.

The Point: We are seeing glimpses of recovery in the housing market, but the market is still distressed. Let’s take any good news in context.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

NOTE: I wanted to show distressed percentages up to $1,000,000, but there were only 24 sales in Sacramento County between $650,000 to $1,000,000 over the past quarter, so the data was too sparse to really establish a trend. The data above $500,000 in fact starts to get really limited.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

Feel free to use this image on your blog, website or in a presentation. I do have a larger size available too, so email me if that’s relevant for you. Please just keep the image intact and feel free to link back.

What stands out to you about the graph? What time period do you remember most?

Property Tax Class This Week: By the way, on an unrelated note, on Thursday I am teaching a class at the Sacramento Association of Realtors YPC forum called “How to Appeal Your Property Taxes.” The class is open to SAR members and affiliates, but even if you are not a part of the association, you can come as my guest. Just let me know beforehand if you’re interested (send me an email, call or comment below). I’ll be talking about the nuts and bolts of property tax appeals, FAQs and advice for consumers from my experience consulting with home owners.

YPC Forum: “How to Appeal Your Property Taxes” – April 19, 2012 9am Sacramento Association of Realtors 2003 Howe Avenue, Sacramento, CA 95825

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

A teepee or mountain graph: As an example, let’s view the past thirteen years of sales in the Northbrook neighborhood in Antelope for a particular single-story model (1943 sq ft). If you’re not familiar with this pocket of housing, it’s a smaller subdivision located west of Watt Avenue and just north of Elverta Road on the eastern side of the golf course. At one time the 1943 model was selling easily above $400,000, but today’s market has seemed to hover between $175,000 to $200,000 over the past year for a standard property without massive upgrades (there was one incredibly updated sale at $225,000 over the past year). I know such a hefty decline is hard to grasp, but values in this neighborhood are not anything out of the ordinary for the Sacramento area since most areas tend to be selling at 2000-2001 levels right now.

What does a graph like this say to you? What do you think it shows?

By the way, I don’t always break down model match sales, but while preparing an appraisal in this neighborhood for the IRS, I thought a graph like this would really help to communicate clearly to my client since there were not too many sales around the date of the death of the owner (which is the date I used to value this property).

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

It’s amazing to see a history of unemployment over the past decade, isn’t it?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

The decline has been hefty, hasn’t it? Yet lots are still moving (just at very low levels). What do you see? Does anything surprise you?

While we’re on the subject of land, let’s take a look at nearby Fair Oaks too. It’s a bit of a similar trend to the graph above, isn’t it?

By the way, for anyone who purchased to speculate during the peak years of the market (or even build, but you got caught in the market at the wrong time and could not build out your land), I would suggest checking your property tax bill to ensure you’re paying at levels consistent with today’s market instead of 2005. I helped a client recently lower his assessed land value in Sacramento from over $1,804,000 to $340,000.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

What does this tells us? This shows me how much turnover there has been since the bubble burst. For example, one unit sold for $560,000 in 2006 and then resold in 2011 for $155,000. It used to be really difficult to pick up a fourplex under $400,000, but that’s not the case anymore. Also, I’m reminded of investment strategy as well as risk. Some investors make purchases and then sit on them for the long haul before reselling, whereas others are looking to purchase and then resell in a relatively short time period.

Mistakes Investors Make: By the way, here is a video I did with Sacramento real estate broker Joel Wright on mistakes investors sometimes make when purchasing real estate. I think we saw some of the mistakes Joel mentioned

Holes in a Fourplex: I inspected one of these units years ago and it was an odd situation since there were actually large holes in the walls of each unit big enough to let me access the entire fourplex. I could simply make my way through each hole to get to the next attached unit. This was actually a bit on the creepy side though since the property was powerless, stripped and clearly had a problem with squatters.

Was it still four units or just one big unit? 

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

Today I wanted to share some research I compiled recently during the course of an appraisal assignment along Garden Highway (next to River for those who don’t know). Here is a scatter graph of all single family sales on Garden Highway in Sacramento County over the past twelve years. There are not many sales of course, but it’s clear that property values have declined in recent years to resemble values nearly a decade ago (that’s a very common trend in the Sacramento area). The market has really struggled also to break the barrier of $1,000,000 lately. This does not mean all properties are worth less, but only that buyers have not paid above $1,000,000 for any listings on MLS in a few years. It seems too that some sellers will list high and then withdraw their properties from the market when they are not selling for the prices they want.

Do you spend much time on the River? What do you do? What stands out to you about the graph below?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

What stands out to you about the graph?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

I’ve done a substantial amount of work in this neighborhood over the past few years for private appraisals, lenders and investors flipping houses. Overall there was a huge flood of foreclosures on the market in later 2008 as you can see with the dense sales at the bottom left side of the graph. As foreclosures were purchased and inventory decreased during that time period, the market began to improve a bit. The tax credit sure helped as you can see the impact of the tax credit from 11/07/2009 to 09/30/2010 as there was a greater stability during that time period. Its seems over the past year since the tax credit expired values have persisted to decline. Investors were selling standard 3/2 houses for $125,000 very easily a couple of years ago, but now flipped sales tend to range between $100,000 to $115,000 (for 1100-1200 sq ft). Lastly, the interesting thing about this neighborhood is that the graph above includes a newer portion of houses built over the past ten years and the bulk of other units built in the 1960s and 1970s. The newer houses in the larger newer subdivision tend to sell at the top of the market.

Any other insight or comments? I’d love to hear your input. If you invest in the neighborhood, why do you invest in Meadowview? If you live in the neighborhood, what is it you enjoy about Meadowview?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

I condensed the graph above to include only sales under $2,500,000 and it helps show the trend more clearly. What do you see?

This bar graph shows how the 809 sales above were dispersed on the sales spectrum.

What challenges is the top of the market facing right now in the Sacramento area? Why are we seeing fewer sales above the one million dollar level?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

Short-term Market Boost: When I look at graphs like the one below, I’m reminded of what it looks like for a short-term program to enter the marketplace to help boost the economy. Ultimately, the tax credit from 11/07/2009 to 09/30/2010 had a positive impact on the market and surely saved some homes from foreclosure too. Yet the boost it gave to the housing market for a matter of months could not hold back the inevitable decline in property value though either. My point? Every day we seem to hear of new solutions to fix the housing market, but as painful as it is, the market may just need to bleed for a number of years ahead. As much as we’d like a quick fix or program, that’s probably not going to happen because we need time for the market to work itself out of the mess.

The graph below is based on research in the Churchill Downs neighborhood in Sacramento. I could plot out many areas of Sacramento and a very similar trend would be seen: stability during the tax credit and a decline afterward.

What do you think it looks like for recovery to unfold? Do you think we’ve hit bottom? Why are we not seeing a surge in property value right now in light of such low inventory levels?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.