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Appraisers vs. Machines: What do you think of websites like Zillow?

People ask me sometimes what I think about websites like Zillow or Cyberhomes. In short, I don’t think computers do as good of a job appraising properties as real humans. Call me biased, but there are some things that real people can still do better than machines. However, though these websites cannot fully replace real estate appraisers, they do have a place to help gain a ballpark figure for a house (please take that with a grain of salt though because figures can still be way off). Additionally, I’m a fan of the multi-year trend graphs that Zillow produces.

The Sacramento Bee actually published an article last Friday about this very topic entitled Home Front: Appraisal sites on Net often fail to pin down accurate prices. The bottom line is that websites like Zillow seem to have greater accuracy in tract markets with ample sales, but even then they are only so good because they cannot sift through value indicators like condition, important neighborhood boundaries, upgrades, and a local appraiser’s knowledge of the market area.

I ran some test cases over recent work I have done and found the following:

- My house (tract): Zillow was 28% high / Cyberhomes was 24% high.
- Elk Grove house 2.0 acres: Zillow was 46% low / Cymberhomes had no value.
- Tract House in Davis: Cyberhomes was 4% high / Zillow was 2.5% high.
- Sacramento River property: Zillow was 40% low / Cymberhomes had no value.
- Tract House in Galt: Zillow was 9.5% high / Cyberhomes was 5.0% low.

What do you think of these websites? What do you think they’re useful for? Do me a favor and run your property by Zillow and/or Cyberhomes and let me know the results.

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August 17, 2010   11 Comments

What should I do with the $398.96 property tax refund check from Sacramento County?

After returning from a camping trip to Shaver Lake this past weekend, I was very happy to find a property tax refund check had come in the mail from Sacramento County. Yes, I appealed my own property taxes in 2008 and they cut me a check to rightfully put money back in my pockets (I’ll get another check for 2009 too). If I had not disputed my property taxes, I would have never seen this refund.

What should I do with the money? Any ideas?

Brainstorming Ideas for how to spend the money:

1. Buy 228 cups of vanilla rooibos herbal tea.
2. Make a dent in the purchase of Sony Vegas Pro.
3. Flipcam.
4. Pick up two used kayaks on Craigslist.
5. Pay for the traffic violation that someone in my household recently earned.
6. Bills.
7. Buy a Micro Portable Loudspeaker Dock for iPod
8. Have glamour headshots taken to start a career as a super model.
9. Easily fund the next camping trip.

If you have any questions about how to reduce your property taxes, let me know. I run a property tax appeal website for the Greater Sacramento Region and I am glad to help you (if it makes good sense for you – if there is money to be saved).

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August 16, 2010   4 Comments

What caption would you give this photo?

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August 11, 2010   6 Comments

Would you buy the house right next to this water tower?

I got a kick out of this aerial image. I have three appraisals in my bag right now in the City of Galt from a very loyal client, and during the course of research I came across a property located near F Street right next to the Galt water tower. This was a potential comp that I didn’t end up using.

A water tower like this is something that should be disclosed in the appraisal report because it could be a potential hazard if it fell. That wouldn’t be good. Additionally, there may be a reaction in the marketplace for the location. Some buyers would pass up making an offer on this property, whereas others might not care. Ultimately, through the course of research, the appraiser needs to come to a conclusion if there is any value to be assigned to the location based on what the market is showing, and if so, how much that reaction is worth.  

I’m curious to hear from home owners or prospective owners on this topic. If your property is located next to a water tower or within fall distance of another type of structure (power tower), have you encountered any difficulties with financing or reselling your property? Or if you were in the market to make a home purchase, would such a location be a turn-off or no big deal?

Your comments are welcome below. Thanks so much. I really appreciate everyone visiting my blog.

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August 11, 2010   3 Comments

The impact of foreclosure on a neighborhood and a few thoughts on condominiums

I inspected a condominium last week in the Hillcrest Park neighborhood in Vallejo, CA. I wanted to share a graph of sales within the subdivision over the past five years. What do you see?

While in the Hillcrest Park neighborhood, I shot the following video as I was considering the vast decline in property value and the impact foreclosure can have on a neighborhood – even beyond real estate values.  

Condominium properties have been hit hard in many niches within the Greater Sacramento Region because the price of single family detached homes has become so much more affordable, and an HOA fee plus a mortgage payment often does not make good economic sense for buyers. Why pay more for a condo when you can get a detached home without an HOA fee, right? That’s often the rationale.

By the way, if you are in the market to purchase a condominium, I would strongly suggest you research the health of the HOA before making a purchase. It would be tragic to purchase a condo only to find out the association is bankrupt.

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August 10, 2010   5 Comments

What Legos can teach us about real estate

Did you play with Legos as a kid? After building a four-story home last night with my six-year old son, I snapped a few photos to show just how much Legos can teach us about real estate. These images will give you a glimpse into some of the things I see while inspecting properties in the Sacramento area. Have a look and let me know if you notice anything else too.

I hope you enjoyed the pics. If you have any questions about real houses in the Greater Sacramento Region, give me a call at 916.595.3735, catch me on Facebook, or email me at ryan@LundquistCompany.com.

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August 5, 2010   11 Comments

A Decade of Unemployment Rates in Sacramento County

Put on your economist hat and let’s take a look at the past decade of unemployment rates in Sacramento County based on the month of June. What do you see? Comments are welcome below.

June 2010     12.6%
June 2009     11.5%
June 2008     6.9%
June 2007     5.4%
June 2006     4.9%
June 2005     5.1%
June 2004     5.9%
June 2003     6.3%
June 2002     5.8%
June 2001     4.5%

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August 4, 2010   3 Comments

A Story of Property Value from the Sales History in Tax Records: El Dorado Hills, CA

The real estate market has been an interesting ride over the past years in the Greater Sacramento Area, and the ups and downs of the market tend to show up when viewing a property’s sales history in Tax Records. I’m always curious to have a look at what houses sold for in 2005 or 2007 and what they are selling for now. I came across a house in the Serrano area of El Dorado Hills and I found the sales history below to tell a story about the market. This story could have come from mostly any area of the Sacramento Region really because in most cases there is a huge difference between property valuess in 2005 and 2010.

8/25/2005  $916,500 (original sale from builder)

6/30/2008  $735,000 (sale from original owner to new owner – not a short sale because the original owner put down $200,000+ on the original purchase).

2/04/2009  $429,500 (transfer – not a public sale – deed in lieu of foreclosure. We have seen banks exercise this option quite a bit so a property technically does not go into foreclosure). 

5/27/2010  $551,000 (resale on the open market).

What do you think?

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August 2, 2010   2 Comments

Dorothea Puente’s duplex is still on the market. Any takers?

Almost five months ago I wrote about Dorothea Puente’s duplex coming on the market. If you don’t know Puente’s history, she ran a “boarding house” in the 1980s out of her Sacramento Victorian duplex at 1426 F Street. She drugged and murdered  tenants to cash their social security checks. Eventually seven bodies were found buried in her backyard.

In case you were wondering, I wanted to give an update on MLS stats for this duplex that has been on the market for 148 days as of today. 

Date             Price
02/26/10   $309,800
03/23/10   $301,800
04/15/10   $292,800
05/10/10   $274,800
06/01/10   $263,800
06/23/10   $252,800
07/15/10   $237,800

It’ll be interesting to see what this property sells for in comparison to other duplex units nearby. Regardless of price, would you have any issue buying a property like this? How might a murder or other heinous circumstance impact real estate value?

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July 26, 2010   No Comments

Elk Grove home owner gets a $2,000 refund check after I helped him appeal his property taxes!!!

I’m a fan of good news, so I wanted to share something with you. A property owner I helped last December just got word that the Sacramento County Assessor has agreed with my opinion of value for his property. They had previously assessed his Elk Grove home for 2009 property taxes at $945,000, but my company provided detailed support to show his assessed value should be at $750,000. The Assessor’s office agreed!!! This means the home owner will receive a refund check around $2,000 because he overpaid on property taxes in 2009.

This particular home owner contacted me literally a couple of days before the deadline to dispute property taxes last year. It’s a good thing he reached out too because otherwise that $2,000 refund check wouldn’t be showing up in the mail.

As a side note, when an appeal is filed and the Assessor ends up agreeing with the appeal, they’ll send you a “Tax Change Withdrawal of Application for Changed Assessment.” Basically this means they are asking you to formally agree to the new opinion of assessed value and simultaneously withdraw your appeal. Usually home owners I help have some questions during this phase because nobody wants to sign something that sounds so unfamiliar. But if the value looks good, you should sign off. There is no reason to keep the appeal in process or pursue an appeals hearing if the Assessor has already agreed to an accurate reduced value. 

I love stories like this and I’ve been hearing quite a few of them lately too. It never gets old to hear a home owner will get a refund check of $2,000. Keep me posted if it looks like you might need help or if you simply want me to check out if there is a potential savings for you. Call me at 916.595.3735 or see www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com.

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July 24, 2010   4 Comments

Beepers, Outdated Technology & Marketing Slogans

The world has changed tremendously over the past decade in terms of technology and how we communicate. I was remembering yesterday for some reason how I used to have a pager in the mid-1990s and how obsolete this device would be for me today.

As a business owner I think a lot about marketing, and reminiscing of my days of having a beeper clipped to my belt made me think of short marketing points for yesterday’s technology. These would all be irrelevant in today’s world, but it’s funny how they used to be normative or even cutting edge.

Beep me and I’ll find a payphone to call you back right away

You don’t have to mail a letter. You can fax me.”

Look me up in the yellow pages.”

“We have email.”

Can you think of other marketing slogans for outdated technology? What type of technology did you use that is no longer relevant today? Did anyone else have a pager like me?

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July 21, 2010   4 Comments

Update: “Crush It” Book Club will meet on Tuesdays in August in Rancho Cordova

I mentioned previously that I was planning to get together a group of local business-minded people to read through the book “Crush It” by Gary Vaynerchuk, so I wanted to update you on the details. Right now there are 4 members in the group and since we can accommodate 8 or so there is still room for you to join. We’ll be meeting at Rancho Cordova City Hall in the Chamber of Commerce board room on Tuesdays in August from 2:30-4:00pm. This is not an open meeting once our capacity is reached, but I wanted to give you specifics in case the time and place work for you. Thanks Barbara for working out the meeting place.

If you are interested in being a part of this group, let me know ASAP. I’d love to see a diverse group to help foster great conversation. Call 916.595.3735 or email me at ryan@LundquistCompany.com. This is about growing in business, building relationship, and thinking through ideas together.

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July 19, 2010   No Comments