• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Sacramento Appraisal Blog | Real Estate Appraiser

Real estate appraisals for divorce, estate settlement, loans, property tax appeal, pre-listing and more. We cover Sacramento, Placer and Yolo County. We're professional, courteous and timely.

  • About
  • Appraisals
  • Order
  • Ask Ryan
  • Areas
  • Classes
  • Press
  • Trends
  • Share
  • Contact

The housing market nobody predicted

January 12, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

Nobody predicted 2020. Who would’ve thought during a pandemic we’d see such an explosive year in real estate? The expectation was that the market would start to tank, but we saw the exact opposite. It’s not just Sacramento either because many areas of the country experienced this same dynamic. Anyway, enjoy some brand new visuals if you wish. Thanks for being here.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Here is a highlight reel to talk through some of the bigger themes this year. In short, the stats are stunning.

What stands out to you?

THE LONGER VERSION (organized by county):

1) Sacramento Region
2) Sacramento County
3) Placer County
4) El Dorado County
5) Yolo County
6) Bonus visuals

I welcome you to share some of these images on your social or in a newsletter. Please use this stuff. In case it helps, here are 5 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

1) SACRAMENTO REGION:

 

2) SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

3) PLACER COUNTY:

4) EL DORADO COUNTY:

5) YOLO COUNTY:

6) BONUS VISUALS:

Here are some extra regional graphs to show how various counties are moving together.

 

Other visuals: Not that you needed more, but check out my social media in coming days and weeks for extra visuals. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most about 2020 real estate? Any stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Share:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: annual recap of housing 2020, Appraisal, appraisal blog in sacramento, Appraiser, cash sales, El Dorado County, Greater Sacramento appraisal blog, Housing market 2020, housing trends, million dollar sales, Placer County, price growth, real estate recap, rising prices, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, Sacramento County, sacramento regional housing market, Yolo County

Real estate trends to watch in 2021

January 4, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 22 Comments

What’s the real estate market going to do in 2021? Let’s talk about some of the emerging trends. Scroll quickly or digest slowly. Anything to add?

Market update at SAR: I’m doing a big market update at SAR on January 21st from 10-11:00am. Sign up here.

TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2021:

Continuation of aggressive market: My crystal ball is broken, but right now demand is truly excessive and inventory is about as low as it’s been, so for the spring season at least we seem poised to see the continuation of the competitive market we’ve had these past two quarters. Let’s remember one of x-factors why the market has been “on fire” though is rates below three percent.

Low inventory & vaccines: Housing supply is about half of what it should be locally and that’s the story in many areas around the country. There are many reasons why inventory is low, but the pandemic is a huge culprit. Frankly unless something happens to motivate owners to list their homes it’s hard to imagine normal inventory levels until we have a vaccine reach the masses and sellers feel more comfortable with buyers coming inside.

Thanks Sandra Schraeder for letting me use this photo.

Working from home: It was a game-changer for migration last year to see so many companies allow employees to work from home forever and this year we’re poised to see this trend continue. But let’s remember opportunities are uneven as the poor and low-wage earners are not likely to have increased mobility.

Buyer preferences: The pandemic has shaped buyer wants and needs and I suspect buyers will still target homes with larger backyards, built-in pools, larger homes, space for an office, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see condos be less appealing again this year.

The color of the year: This year Pantone has a twofer for their color of the year with both shades of gray and yellow. Gray has been prominent for years already. Do you think we’ll see more yellow?

Divorce: I was talking with a divorce attorney client the other day and he says his colleagues are all incredibly busy. While I don’t have statistics, I suspect the pandemic has caused life reflection and many couples have decided to call it quits. Of course having years of equity may propel this decision for some too.

Bubble concerns: Today I had two different people ask me what prices are going to do in the future (I didn’t give a specific answer). While we don’t have bubble hysteria, many prospective buyers are still wondering about future prices. Here are three truths to consider: 1) We’re now entering our tenth year of price growth; 2) It’s normal for markets to go up and down; and 3) What happened in 2005 isn’t the new template for every future market correction. For more thoughts see my open letter to buyers concerned about another housing bubble.

Uncertainty on the horizon: Housing headlines have been glowing lately, but let’s not get lost in the glory and forget we’re still in the thick of the pandemic and we’ve only scraped the surface of understanding the effect of the pandemic on the economy, job market, local businesses, foreclosures, and evictions. We need time see how all these things pan out.

Elimination of single family zoning: There’s a movement to do away with single family zoning to help create more housing and even undo some of the damage caused by past discriminatory practices such as redlining. In 2019 we saw Minneapolis do this by allowing up to three units to be built on a single family lot, and the City of Sacramento right now is talking about updating their general plan and moving away from unit-based density restrictions. This means instead of typically being able to build just one unit you could build a fourplex instead. For instance, read page 12 of this Sacramento City Council report (pdf). 

Racism in real estate: I expect we will see many more headlines about racism in real estate. Much of the conversation has focused on appraisers, but it will likely spread to other professions within real estate too. My advice? Listen, be a part of the conversation, and change as needed. If you are local and want to understand some of the history of redlining and restrictive racial covenants, check out this UC Davis talk by Dr. Jesus Hernandez.

Proposition 19: This California proposition just passed and it allows homeowners over 55 to transfer their primary tax base to a replacement residence. This is a big deal as it can free up mobility for a segment of the population. But the other side of Prop 19 is it’s now not so easy for heirs to retain the tax base of the previous owner. On my end working with heirs I’m hearing lots of talk about selling instead of holding. Though before predicting an avalanche of listings I suspect we’re going to see some creative ways heirs can still retain properties without residing in them. Let’s keep watching.

Affordability: Low rates have helped buyers afford the market more this year, but prices have also risen. At some point the benefit of crazy low rates is going to be diminished by lofty prices and we’re going to see the narrative shift to the struggle of affordability.

iBuyers may have a better year: This year wasn’t pretty for the iBuyer model because companies liked Opendoor and Zillow basically paused their operations during the beginning of the pandemic. Right now in the Sacramento region Zillow owns 32 homes and Opendoor owns 19 homes according to Tax Records. A couple years ago Opendoor regularly owned nearly 100 homes locally for reference. Ultimately the iBuyer model took a step back this year, but expect them to gain a little more share this next year. Let’s keep it all in context though because these companies have only a tiny sliver of the market despite getting tremendous press. 

1031 Exchanges: My analysis of local stats shows there are more 1031 Exchanges in an up market than a down market, so expect more of them this year. I’ve seen quite a few Bay Area investors park their money in Sacramento and I’ve seen some Sacramento investors move their money to lower-priced states. Of course lots of big companies such as Tesla have moved out of California recently. While that is a different thing, it’s something to watch because wealthy individuals and corporations are clearly weighing their options for where to park their money and businesses.

Goodbye California: Rising prices since 2012, the ability to work from home, and Boomers on the cusp of retirement will likely fuel more migration this year. Of course other groups will leave for other reasons too. I shared some migration stats last month from the American Community Survey and I’ll share more this year from other sources too. Stay tuned.

Other: What did I miss? What’s on your mind for the year?

RECAP NEXT WEEK: Stay tuned for a big market recap post with brand new visuals. Check out my social media this week for some previews (links on sidebar).

I hope this was helpful or interesting.

Questions: What else do you think will be important in 2021? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Share:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: aggressive price growth, Bay Area, COVID-19, Divorce, future housing market, housing market 2021, pandemic housing market, Pantone color of year, Prop 19, real estate bubble, Real Estate Market, sacramento housing trends, working from home

You carried me & a spreadsheet for Christmas

December 22, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 36 Comments

This will be my last post of the year and I wanted to say thank you for all of your support. I’m so grateful for the conversations and all the business of course, but there’s so much more. 

This year was not easy as I spent six nights in the hospital and took three months off work to heal from a really bad ulcerative colitis flare. I’m thankfully doing very well now and I’m happy. But I couldn’t have done this alone.

Thank you for the kind words, advice, flowers, meals, cards, prayer, and all the ways you showed support. I’m especially grateful to those who donated to the GoFundMe because it sustained my family and helped us pay off medical bills. 

It might sound cheesy, but you carried me this year. And I will never forget that.

Merry Christmas. May you know profound joy and a deep-seated peace regardless of your circumstances or the craziness of 2020.

Much love,

Ryan Lundquist

——————- now a spreadsheet if that’s your thing ——————-

A SPREADSHEET FOR CHRISTMAS?

It’s not the new PlayStation, a leg lamp, or a Bob Ross chia pet, but it’s pretty cool even if it sounds lame. This spreadsheet will help you make quick neighborhood graphs and it can work anywhere as long as you can export data from your MLS.

What does it do? This spreadsheet makes ten or so visuals as I shared about last week. This is a tool to quickly understand a few neighborhood dynamics. This isn’t a template to find out exactly what prices are doing. It’s more about the relationship things like bedroom count or lot size has with price.

STEPS TO USE THE TEMPLATE:

1) Download the spreadsheet here.

2) Decide what data you want to show. It’s up to you.

3) Create a custom export in MLS (see how to video).

4) Paste data from MLS into the template (see how to video).

5) Share graphs on social media, newsletters, etc…

IMPORTANT NOTE: Metrolist updated all of their terminology since I made the video, so when you make the template for the spreadsheet as I show you in the video you’re going to have to figure out what the new terms are. For instance, instead of “Selling Price” it’s now “Buyer Price.” This template should work just as I show in the video, but you must tell MLS to export the correct categories.

HOW TO VIDEO:

I talk for ten minutes or so about how to use this template. If you have questions, let me know. Please call your MLS if you cannot figure out how to export though because that’s not something I can help you with. Watch below (or here).

NOTE ON DATA: It’s important to think about the data you use. It could be a neighborhood, zip code, or MLS area. You might use all neighborhood sales or maybe just a sliver such as 1400-1700 sq ft homes. I suggest showing maybe the past 90 days or 180 days of sales so we capture a recent trend (or maybe it’s useful to see one year of sales?). Remember, if there is too much data it’s going to look like chaos. In short, experiment and figure out what works.

FEEDBACK: I have lots of graph tutorials here, but I’ve never made a template like this before for the public, so let me know which visuals you like best and/or what might work better in the future. I’m open to doing more of these if there is interest and it’s useful. Just remember this template isn’t meant to do everything or dissect prices in depth, so please see it in context. Thanks.

I hope this is helpful. Thanks for being here.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Share:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Filed Under: Resources Tagged With: excel spreadsheet download for free, feeling the love, goodbye 2020, greater sacramento real estate blog, housing trends, how to, make a graph, real estate graphs tutorial, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, Thank you

Real estate drama (and a market update)

December 15, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 50 Comments

I’m not into The Bachelorette or The Real Housewives. It’s just not my thing. But I love me some real estate drama. I’m not talking about HGTV, but the housing market. I know that elevates my nerd status, but I’m hyper focused on fresh stats, ups and downs, and things that make the market move.

(scroll down for a big market update instead)

AN EXCEL FILE FOR CHRISTMAS? Today I want to share some new neighborhood visuals and I’d like to give you an Excel template so you can quickly make these images for neighborhoods in your area. Does that interest you? If I have consensus I’ll post a template with instructions next week.

DRAMA IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD: What can you tell me about this neighborhood (East Sac)? What stands out to you about the relationship between price and square footage, lot size, and bedroom count? I made these images in a couple of minutes with the template I mentioned.

What do you think? Do you like any of these images? Any ideas for something else to show in a quick template like this? Let me know.

UNCLE RYAN’S LAME GIFT: I know it’s odd to wrap an Excel file for Christmas, but let me know if this would be relevant. You can use it for studying neighborhoods, explaining the market to clients, or for newsletters / social media. If there’s enough interest I’ll make a video tutorial. You don’t need to be an Excel guru either. This is something anyone can do with a little effort.

FOX 40 INTERVIEW: By the way, I did a 15-minute live segment last week on Fox 40. We talked about Sacramento being poised to have the strongest market in the country next year according to Realtor.com. Watch here if you wish.

Thanks so much for being here.

Any thoughts?

———————- (skim or digest slowly) ———————–

BIG MARKET UPDATE

For those interested, here’s a big Sacramento market update:

MARKET SUMMARY: In short, we’ve been seeing the drama of a spring real estate season during the fall months. The housing market has been on steroids and the slower fall season we normally have just didn’t happen. Well, technically we are seeing some stats start to slow down as prices have gone sideways lately and we’re seeing fewer sales like we normally do in November and December. But here’s the thing. The “slower” stats are still so elevated from where they should be that it just doesn’t feel slow at all.

HIGHLIGHT REEL:

  • Half of all sales sold in seven days or fewer last month
  • For six months in a row sales volume has outpaced last year
  • We only have three weeks of supply (that’s crazy low)
  • We have the lowest monthly inventory in 15-20 years (at least)
  • Buyers made twice as many offers last month compared to last year
  • The number of listings has been chopped in half
  • Price metrics are up about 12-14% from last year
  • November 2020 regional volume is up 25% from November 2019
  • 63% of all sales had multiple offers last month
  • There were 53.6% more multiple offers compared to last year
  • Each sale last month had an average of 3.22 offers
  • Sales volume is up about 2% over the past 12 months
  • There were 106% more million dollar sales from July to November

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS:

You are welcome to use these in newsletters and social media with proper attribution. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

SACRAMENTO REGION:

  

 

 

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Other visuals: I have lots of other graphs. Check out my social media in coming days and weeks. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing in the market right now? Any stories to share? Are you interested in my Excel template? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Share:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: aggressive real estate market, Appraisal, Appraiser, California, East Sac, East Sacramento, El Dorado County, Excel, Greater Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog, House Appraisal, housing shortage, how to graph, low inventory, Placer County, Real Estate Market, rising prices, sacramento housing trends, trend graphs

  • « Go to Previous Page
  • Go to page 1
  • Go to page 2
  • Go to page 3
  • Go to page 4
  • Go to page 5
  • Go to page 6
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Go to page 333
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Connect with Ryan

 Facebook Twitter LinkedIn YouTube Instagram

Subscribe to Weekly Post

* indicates required

Search this site

Blog Categories

  • Appraisal Stuff (408)
  • Bankruptcy (3)
  • Divorce (4)
  • Estate Settlement (6)
  • FHA Appraisal Articles (56)
  • Internet (53)
  • Market Trends (486)
  • Photos from the Field (126)
  • Property Taxes (70)
  • Random Stuff (231)
  • Resources (566)
  • Videos (161)

Blog Archives: 2009 – 2021

Lundquist Appraisal Links

  • Appraisal Order Form
  • Appraisal Website
  • Rancho Cordova Appraiser Website
  • Sacramento Appraisal Blog Sitemap
  • Sacramento Real Estate Appraiser Facebook Page
  • Twitter: Sacramento Appraiser (@SacAppraiser)
  • YouTube: Sacramento Appraiser Channel

Most Recent Posts

  • The housing market feels like chaos
  • An explosion of appraisal waivers. Is that good or bad?
  • Skyrocketing prices aren’t happening everywhere
  • The housing market feels like a crazy auction
  • Are appraisers keeping up with rapid price growth?
  • How much have prices risen since the bottom of the market?
  • How long can this market keep going?
  • What is your housing persona?
  • Rapid price growth & the Gilmore Girls next door
  • Are first-time buyers targeting 2-4 unit properties?

Disclaimer

First off, thank you for being here. Now let's get into the fine print. The material and information contained on this website is the copyrighted property of Ryan Lundquist and Lundquist Appraisal Company. Content on this website may not be reproduced or republished without prior written permission from Ryan Lundquist.

Please see my Sharing Policy on the navigation bar if you are interested in sharing portions of any content on this blog.

The information on this website is meant entirely for educational purposes and is not intended in any way to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or any sort of value conclusion for a loan, litigation, tax appeal or any other potential real estate or non-real estate purpose. The material found on this website is meant for casual reading only and is not intended for use in a court of law or any other legal use. Ryan will not appear in court in any capacity based on any information posted here. For more detailed market analysis to be used for an appraisal report or any appraisal-related purpose or valuation consulting, please contact Ryan at 916-595-3735 for more information.

There are no affiliate links on this blog, but there are three advertisements. Please do your homework before doing business with any advertisers as advertisements are not affiliated with this blog in any way. Two ads are located on the sidebar and one is at the bottom of each post. The ads earn a minor amount of revenue and are a simple reward for providing consistent original content to readers. If you think the ads interfere with your blog experience or the integrity of the blog somehow, let me know. I'm always open to feedback. Thank you again for being here.

Copyright © 2021 Sacramento Appraisal Blog