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Appraisal

My new sewer line adds huge value, right?

January 19, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 21 Comments

A new sewer line. That’s what 2020 gave my family as a parting gift before the year closed. Yep, just before Christmas we had to replace our entire line at a whopping $13,688. I know that sounds crazy expensive, but we had four separate bids and went with the most reasonable one. In part it was so pricey because we had one hundred feet of line under eighty feet of concrete. 

The good news is my house is worth $13,688 more now, right?

THE SHORT ANSWER: No.

THE LONGER ANSWER: Buyers expect things like sewer lines to be in working order, so they aren’t prone to pay a premium for a new one. Would some buyers pay a little something extra? Maybe. But I’m not holding my breath for much of a value add because buyers get more excited and swayed by the bling in a house rather than boring adult stuff like sewer pipes. After all, we don’t hear buyers say stuff like, “I want an open concept kitchen, hardwood flooring throughout, but I’m walking if the sewer line isn’t new.”

IF IT’S BROKEN: But if a sewer line is broken, that’s where it becomes more of a value issue since a traditional loan shouldn’t be able to fund without a functioning sewer line. Moreover, in most markets buyers would likely deduct for the expense and inconvenience of having to replace a line. 

CLOSING ADVICE: Sellers, don’t expect buyers to pay dollar for dollar for every repair you do. Seriously, buyers expect certain things to be present and working. This is why they’re not going to look at my house and say, “Whoa, there’s a new sewer line? Let’s offer $13,688 more.” This is just how it works. And frankly if we were the buyers there’s no way we’d be paying cost either, right?

Anyway, here’s to indoor plumbing in 2021.

Thanks for being here.

Market update at SAR: I’m doing a big market update at SAR on January 21st from 10-11:00am. Sign up here.

Questions: Have you done any similar repairs recently? Have you ever seen a sewer line increase value? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Random Stuff Tagged With: Appraisal, appraisal stuff, Appraiser, buyers don't always pay the cost, contributory value, cost vs value, Market Value, replacing sewer line, sacramento regional appraisal blog, sewer line

The housing market nobody predicted

January 12, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

Nobody predicted 2020. Who would’ve thought during a pandemic we’d see such an explosive year in real estate? The expectation was that the market would start to tank, but we saw the exact opposite. It’s not just Sacramento either because many areas of the country experienced this same dynamic. Anyway, enjoy some brand new visuals if you wish. Thanks for being here.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Here is a highlight reel to talk through some of the bigger themes this year. In short, the stats are stunning.

What stands out to you?

THE LONGER VERSION (organized by county):

1) Sacramento Region
2) Sacramento County
3) Placer County
4) El Dorado County
5) Yolo County
6) Bonus visuals

I welcome you to share some of these images on your social or in a newsletter. Please use this stuff. In case it helps, here are 5 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

1) SACRAMENTO REGION:

 

2) SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

3) PLACER COUNTY:

4) EL DORADO COUNTY:

5) YOLO COUNTY:

6) BONUS VISUALS:

Here are some extra regional graphs to show how various counties are moving together.

 

Other visuals: Not that you needed more, but check out my social media in coming days and weeks for extra visuals. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most about 2020 real estate? Any stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: annual recap of housing 2020, Appraisal, appraisal blog in sacramento, Appraiser, cash sales, El Dorado County, Greater Sacramento appraisal blog, Housing market 2020, housing trends, million dollar sales, Placer County, price growth, real estate recap, rising prices, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, Sacramento County, sacramento regional housing market, Yolo County

Real estate drama (and a market update)

December 15, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 50 Comments

I’m not into The Bachelorette or The Real Housewives. It’s just not my thing. But I love me some real estate drama. I’m not talking about HGTV, but the housing market. I know that elevates my nerd status, but I’m hyper focused on fresh stats, ups and downs, and things that make the market move.

(scroll down for a big market update instead)

AN EXCEL FILE FOR CHRISTMAS? Today I want to share some new neighborhood visuals and I’d like to give you an Excel template so you can quickly make these images for neighborhoods in your area. Does that interest you? If I have consensus I’ll post a template with instructions next week.

DRAMA IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD: What can you tell me about this neighborhood (East Sac)? What stands out to you about the relationship between price and square footage, lot size, and bedroom count? I made these images in a couple of minutes with the template I mentioned.

What do you think? Do you like any of these images? Any ideas for something else to show in a quick template like this? Let me know.

UNCLE RYAN’S LAME GIFT: I know it’s odd to wrap an Excel file for Christmas, but let me know if this would be relevant. You can use it for studying neighborhoods, explaining the market to clients, or for newsletters / social media. If there’s enough interest I’ll make a video tutorial. You don’t need to be an Excel guru either. This is something anyone can do with a little effort.

FOX 40 INTERVIEW: By the way, I did a 15-minute live segment last week on Fox 40. We talked about Sacramento being poised to have the strongest market in the country next year according to Realtor.com. Watch here if you wish.

Thanks so much for being here.

Any thoughts?

———————- (skim or digest slowly) ———————–

BIG MARKET UPDATE

For those interested, here’s a big Sacramento market update:

MARKET SUMMARY: In short, we’ve been seeing the drama of a spring real estate season during the fall months. The housing market has been on steroids and the slower fall season we normally have just didn’t happen. Well, technically we are seeing some stats start to slow down as prices have gone sideways lately and we’re seeing fewer sales like we normally do in November and December. But here’s the thing. The “slower” stats are still so elevated from where they should be that it just doesn’t feel slow at all.

HIGHLIGHT REEL:

  • Half of all sales sold in seven days or fewer last month
  • For six months in a row sales volume has outpaced last year
  • We only have three weeks of supply (that’s crazy low)
  • We have the lowest monthly inventory in 15-20 years (at least)
  • Buyers made twice as many offers last month compared to last year
  • The number of listings has been chopped in half
  • Price metrics are up about 12-14% from last year
  • November 2020 regional volume is up 25% from November 2019
  • 63% of all sales had multiple offers last month
  • There were 53.6% more multiple offers compared to last year
  • Each sale last month had an average of 3.22 offers
  • Sales volume is up about 2% over the past 12 months
  • There were 106% more million dollar sales from July to November

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS:

You are welcome to use these in newsletters and social media with proper attribution. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

SACRAMENTO REGION:

  

 

 

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Other visuals: I have lots of other graphs. Check out my social media in coming days and weeks. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing in the market right now? Any stories to share? Are you interested in my Excel template? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: aggressive real estate market, Appraisal, Appraiser, California, East Sac, East Sacramento, El Dorado County, Excel, Greater Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog, House Appraisal, housing shortage, how to graph, low inventory, Placer County, Real Estate Market, rising prices, sacramento housing trends, trend graphs

Goodbye California. Is everyone leaving?

December 8, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 50 Comments

Everyone is leaving California. Well, it feels like it. But what do the stats actually say? Let’s talk about it. This is so important for real estate professionals in particular to understand because it helps us talk about the market and plan for the future. Any stories to share? Please comment below. 

1) Where are California residents moving?

Last year 653,551 residents left the state according to the American Community Survey. Here are the top destinations of where California residents are moving. Keep in mind 2020 data is not out yet. I included the top states below. If I had all fifty states on one graph it would be too big. Does anything surprise you?

2) Who is coming to California?

There is so much news about people leaving California, but we have quite a few people coming to the state too. Last year in 2019 there were 480,204 people who moved to California. It’s interesting that many residents moving here are from some of the top destination states.

3) Where are Californians MOVING THE LEAST?

This visual shows the locations where California residents moved the least in 2019. Does anything surprise you?

4) How can the population still be growing with so many leaving?

Last year we saw more people leave than come to California and that’s been the trend for at least ten years according to the American Community Survey (without considering international migration). So how is our population still growing? Well, in short we’ve had more births to offset the numbers. This is really important because we often hear things like, “Dude, our population keeps growing, so clearly we don’t have more people leaving. That’s just a made-up narrative.” Look, it’s both. We actually do have more residents leaving than coming, but births are helping our population continue to grow. On a side note, I wonder if we’ll see the birth rate go up in light of the pandemic. You know, will sheltering in place lead to more babies?

5) Aren’t more residents moving to Idaho?

It seems like Idaho is all the rage as a destination, so it might be surprising to see only 17,722 California residents moved to Idaho last year. But keep in mind these are 2019 stats and we could see the numbers increase in 2020. Let’s remember Idaho only has a total population of about 1.75 million people though, so having nearly eighteen thousand California residents move last year is huge because it essentially boosted the population by 1%. That’s enormous growth for Idaho, but it’s really just a drop in the bucket for California since we have over thirty nine million residents.

Thanks Meghan for letting me use the photo.

6) Less than 2% of the population moved last year

It seems like everyone and their Mom is leaving the state, but it’s really not true when considering the numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau. I’m not trying to minimize over 650,000 residents leaving last year, but that’s less than 2% of the state. It’s worth noting that over 98% of residents did not move last year.

7) Will the pandemic cause more people to move?

The stats above DO NOT reflect the pandemic because 2020 stats aren’t out yet. I’m anxious to see what new stats bring in light of so many residents being able to work from home now. By the way, here are three ways the pandemic has affected buyers.

8) Migration resources:

You can make your own visuals like mine by checking out the U.S. Census Bureau. But there is also a fun tool called the Census Flow Mapper that helps us see county to county migration (the only downfall is data only goes through 2018 so far). We can also look at migration reports from moving companies. Here’s a sampling of migration reports from Atlas Van Lines, United Van Lines, and North American Moving Services. We can also consider search queries to get clues for places people are thinking about, but I tend to put more weight on stats that show where people actually moved.

9) Why are people moving?

This is a huge question. It’s a dissertation and I won’t pretend to be qualified to answer it. But the usual suspects such as retirement, lifestyle, job change, politics, etc… are surely factors. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

QUESTIONS FOR REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS
Who are your clients going to be over the next few years?
Who is coming to the market?
Who is leaving the market?
Who is going to be participating in the future market?
What steps do you need to take to position yourself for the future?
Where can you meet future clients?

I hope this was helpful.

Questions: Does anything surprise you about the stats above? Why are people leaving? Did I miss anything?

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: Appraisal, Appraiser, goodbye California, hello California, House Appraisal, House Appraiser, housing blog in Sacramento, migration, migration trends, moving away from California, moving out of California, moving to California, sacramento regional appraisal blog, US Census Bureau

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Most Recent Posts

  • My new sewer line adds huge value, right?
  • The housing market nobody predicted
  • Real estate trends to watch in 2021
  • You carried me & a spreadsheet for Christmas
  • Real estate drama (and a market update)
  • Goodbye California. Is everyone leaving?
  • How much are buyers paying above the list price?
  • What would happen to the housing market if we went on lockdown again?
  • Overpricing, multiple offers, & hot ranges
  • Why your home isn’t worth 16% more today

Disclaimer

First off, thank you for being here. Now let's get into the fine print. The material and information contained on this website is the copyrighted property of Ryan Lundquist and Lundquist Appraisal Company. Content on this website may not be reproduced or republished without prior written permission from Ryan Lundquist.

Please see my Sharing Policy on the navigation bar if you are interested in sharing portions of any content on this blog.

The information on this website is meant entirely for educational purposes and is not intended in any way to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or any sort of value conclusion for a loan, litigation, tax appeal or any other potential real estate or non-real estate purpose. The material found on this website is meant for casual reading only and is not intended for use in a court of law or any other legal use. Ryan will not appear in court in any capacity based on any information posted here. For more detailed market analysis to be used for an appraisal report or any appraisal-related purpose or valuation consulting, please contact Ryan at 916-595-3735 for more information.

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