appraisals in Sacramento

Addicted to low rates, sending 2x4s, and a market update

March 14, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 5 Comments

The market feels addicted to low interest rates. So what’s going to happen when rates rise? Let’s travel back to the late 70s for some insight and consider a few thoughts. Then I have a huge local market update for those interested.

A few thoughts about interest rates:

1) Addicted: We have a market that feels addicted to low rates. I guess that’s understandable since rates have been hovering around 4% for the past 6 years. On one hand it seems silly that buyers would freak out about rates near 4.5% because that’s historically low, but at the same time the market is sensitive about rate changes because we’ve become accustomed (or addicted) to low rates. Let’s remember rate changes can make a bigger difference at lower prices too because they can more readily impact affordability.

2) They used to be 18%: Some people say, “You kids are so lucky because when I bought my first house the interest rate was 18%.” There’s some truth there and let’s be in tune with history, yet prices used to be substantially lower too. You bought at 18%, but the price was $112,000.

3) Not the only factor: What interest rates do can end up impacting affordability, sales volume, housing supply, and prices. Check out a deep article by Freddie Mac to read through some of the potential changes coming. Yet let’s remember interest rates are not the only factor for housing. There are many other layers of the market that end up influencing value. We can’t forget about the job market, economy, a housing shortage, financing, creative loans, new construction, cash investors, etc… In short, interest rates are a big factor for the market, but they are not the only factor either. One more thing. Nobody knows the future. While it looks like rates are going to be increasing more, we could be saying something entirely different next year.

When rates doubled from 1977 to 1981 (from Freddie Mac):

1) Mortgage origination fell by 40%.
2) Annual single family home sales volume dropped by 36%.
3) New construction dropped by 51%.

History teaches us a huge change in rates can absolutely sway the market. Obviously an uptick from 4% to 4.5% is not the same thing as 1977, but the effect then reminds us to keep an eye on mortgage origination, sales volume, and new construction (and prices).

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Anything to add?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

It’s starting to look like Spring. Prices are picking up, it took two less days to sell last month, and more listings are hitting the market. It was actually the strongest February of sales volume we’ve seen since 2013. The market has an aggressive feel with multiple offers (when properties are priced correctly), yet in some neighborhoods it almost seems like values have been a bit flat or subdued. Thus it’s a good reminder the market can feel aggressive sometimes without absolutely insane value increases. Keep in mind there are about 100 price reductions every day right now in MLS, and that means buyers are not willing to pay any price despite a housing shortage.

Sales volume is down (barely): There is lots of talk in the media about how sales volume is slumping nationally and is down 3% or more, but it’s only down 0.28% this year in the region compared to last year. It’s actually up from two years ago, which a big point in my mind. In Sacramento County sales volume is down nearly 1.5%, which is about where it’s been hovering lately. This isn’t a red flag for the market, but it would be if sales volume really started to slough. Moreover, knowing that rising interest rates can impact sales volume, this is important to watch over time.

The bottom vs. top: The bottom of the market has less inventory, more competition, and more upward pressure than the top. The highest prices above $1M have over a year’s worth of homes for sale. It’s actually fairly normal to have that much inventory at the high-end, though this month is a bit higher than the same time last year, so let’s keep watching that. Part of having so many listings at higher prices though is sellers are pricing at absurd levels that are totally disconnected from the market. It’s like everyone and their Mom wants to sell for $3M when very few sales in Sacramento fetch those types of prices.

Advice for sellers: Pay careful attention to similar properties that are actually selling in the neighborhood rather than overpriced listings. In other words, price according to the comps and listings that are getting into contract rather than listings that don’t really reflect the market. And don’t use price per sq ft to price your home either.

RENTS: I’ve been focusing more on rents and I’ll keep doing that if people like it. I have a rent folder in the download link below too (data from Yardi Matrix).

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: How do you think rising rates will impact the market over time (if they do keep rising of course)? Anything I missed? I’d love to hear your take.

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Real estate trends to watch in 2018

January 2, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 32 Comments

What’s the real estate market going to do in 2018? Let’s talk about some of the big conversation pieces emerging in Sacramento and beyond. Any thoughts? What are you watching? I’d love to hear your take.

1) Affordability: This year we’re going to have more conversations on affordability – or lack thereof. This is a big issue that’s not only covered extensively by the media, but it’s something being felt by real people – both prospective buyers and renters. According to NAR’s Housing Affordability Index, affordability has been declining.

2) More Color: Lots of design magazines and articles are talking about seeing more color in the kitchen and other parts of the house. Some say totally white kitchens are on the way out. Others anticipate seeing more avocado green on walls (hello 1970s). And brass fixtures are back in style too (hello 1980s).

3) Marijuana: This is a big year for California because recreational or “adult use” marijuana is now fully legal. Whether you are personally for or against this, it’s something we need to watch because of the potential economic and real estate impact. I’m not writing as an advocate, but I am saying let’s pay attention to commercial rents, vacancy rates, job opportunities, cash purchases, changing zoning code, land value, advertising, public perception, etc… So far the City of Sacramento has been a lone wolf in allowing commercial cannabis cultivation since surrounding cities have basically said NO thus far. In 2018 I suspect we’ll see other cities also jump on the cannabis wagon.

4) Smart homes: We are seeing incredible advances in technology for homes. It’s not just the “Echo” or “Google Home” either, but “smart” products are showing up for thermostats, shades, color-changing light bulbs, appliances, door locks, security systems, etc… The market doesn’t fully expect these features yet in every home, but there may come a day when they are normative. I actually bought a Google Home for my office last week. Did anyone else?

5) Creative financing: There is still upward pressure on values in many prices ranges and locations in light of a housing shortage, but if interest rates rise too much it could soften values (duh). This is where lenders can artificially keep prices high by offering more creative loan products to help buyers “afford” the market. Sounds healthy, right? Keep in mind we are nowhere near 2005 when money was being given to anyone with a pulse, but if lenders loosen things up too much it’s probably a good thing to be concerned.

6) Appraisal waivers: About a year ago Fannie Mae rolled out an appraisal waiver program that would not require an appraisal on certain transactions. Fast forward to today. The narrative right now from quite a few voices in the real estate community is that we need to use more alternative valuation products (without a human appraiser) for the sake of quicker turn-times, a lower cost for consumers, and a more efficient mortgage process. I know, I sound like an angry human since robots are taking over the world, but there is a deeper issue here. Messing with a system of checks and balances can be dangerous for the market. Do me a favor and re-watch The Big Short and ask yourself if there is any reason to be concerned about loosening things up when it comes to real estate valuations. I may write more on this soon.

7) Rent control: Rents have risen dramatically in many parts of the country over the past few years, so let’s expect to see attempts this year to enact rent control. Remember, what rent control does is limit how much a landlord can increase rent by putting a price ceiling on rent. There are both staunch proponents and critics of rent control, so be ready for some heated conversation if you bring this topic up online. As an FYI, in Sacramento we’ve had near 10% rent increases for three years in a row without much wage growth.

8) Republican Tax Plan: Some say the new tax plan will create less incentive for home ownership and cut values drastically whereas others say there won’t be much impact in most of the country beyond some higher-dollar pockets. The truth is the future hasn’t happened yet, so in humility we must admit we don’t yet know the extent of any impact. This is why I like what Jonathan Miller wrote, “If there is one thing the housing market doesn’t like, it is uncertainty. As it relates to housing, this new law is an “uncertainty casserole” and homebuyers and sellers will take a while, probably 1-2 years to adapt to the new world order and sales will be tempered until there is equilibrium. Prices in high-cost housing markets will clearly slip, although I don’t anticipate a severity.”

9) Disappearance of the $150,000 market: Last year I put on my prophet hat and talked about the disappearance of the $100,000 market in Sacramento. It was a safe bet to make that prediction because there is so much upward pressure at the lowest prices. This year I think we’re poised to see few homes under $150,000 by the end of the year. Remember, it’s not just the lowest prices in the market that are experiencing upward price pressure. It’s really entry-level homes in most neighborhoods – regardless of the price. Yet the median price in Sacramento has been hovering around $350,000, which literally means half the market is shopping below that price point. This alone reminds us it can be much more competitive at lower price ranges since more buyers are shopping there.

10) Alternative housing: As values have risen for single family detached homes, buyers at the lowest prices may need to consider other options such as mobile homes, tiny homes, storage container units, and lower-priced condos. Some alternative housing can feel sexy because of the lower cost and the cool vibe, but let’s remember the most expensive thing in real estate is often the land and permits. Thus it’s not always easy to build that low-cost alternative structure.

11) Increase of real estate agents: When prices are hot everyone and their Mom gets into real estate, so let’s expect to see more new agents out there. I’ve talked to a number of former loan officers wanting to get back into action too (I wonder if they know how much the game has changed since 2005). I’ve also talked with a number of agents wanting to become appraisers.

12) Housing shortage: We’ve not had much new construction over the past decade, and we’re feeling it because there aren’t enough units to satisfy demand. The good news is builders seem to be busy at work, which will help add more units in 2018. But the bad news is it takes time to build, so sprinkling in some homes and apartments here and there is not a quick way to solve a housing shortage. Moreover, one of the struggles in Sacramento is many skilled laborers left the area when the previous real estate bubble burst, so having enough workers is an issue. If anything the housing shortage seems poised to persist, though it seems like there is some relief on the way too. Also, last year housing inventory was actually slightly higher during some months compared to the previous year (though still anemic).

13) Bubble conversations: With values creeping back to their previous peak (or beyond) in some neighborhoods, it’s only natural to have conversations about “bubbles”. If you don’t believe me, show this graph to 10 people and tell me how many mention the word “bubble”. See my open letter to buyers worried about a housing bubble because this is a loaded conversation. On a side note, one thing to keep in mind is some owners who sense the top of the market is near may choose to list this year, and that can create some inventory. Just today I spoke with someone who is planning to leave California (and probably move to Idaho or Texas). This guy’s idea is that he’ll list his home in a few months in order to cash out while values are high. Does this man represent all sellers? No. But does he represent some? Yes.

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

Questions: What else do you think will be important in 2018? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.

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My last blog post in 2017, Bitcoin, & a big market update

December 13, 2017 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

I started this blog almost nine years ago, and this is my last post for the year. After next week I’ll be lying low, enjoying family, doing some woodworking, staying on my diet (I’m down 30 pounds), and taking some time to get recharged. But first I have two things on my mind.

Thank you: Thank you so much for hanging with me for another year. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate your support, friendship, comments, emails, insight, and the business you send my way. It might sound cheesy, but I get so much joy out of writing once a week and I’m grateful for you. It’s been a dynamic year for business too, and I honestly could not be doing this without your support. Here’s to continuing to grow together. Please don’t stop asking questions, pitching in thoughts, and challenging my thinking.

Big market stats: Secondly, if you’re looking for the latest market trends for Sacramento, you’ve come to the right place. Check it out below.

From my family to yours, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

The market is often dull during the fall, but that’s not the case this year. I mean, we’re definitely seeing slightly lower prices, it’s taking longer to sell, and sales volume is sloughing, so clearly the signs of a slower market are here. Yet this fall season isn’t really incredibly slow or painfully dull either.

Sideways: Price metrics were more or less sideways last month, though some metrics either showed a slight uptick or a slight decline. Overall there wasn’t much change from the month before in terms of price, but it took an average of three days longer to sell. This November saw almost the same amount of sales as last November for the region. Housing inventory is slightly higher than the same time last year, but it’s still hovering at 1.60 months for the region – which is still low. In other words, the housing shortage didn’t go anywhere.

Bitcoin & Modest Appreciation: The rapid increase of Bitcoin has been the talk of town lately, and it’s also seemed to fuel some conversations about quickly rising values in real estate. I get the comparison, but we’re really not seeing Bitcoin type huge increases in real estate. In fact, this year in Sacramento values have seemed more modest in many price ranges, which means somewhere around 5-7% upticks. I realize “modest” in California would be huge in other areas of the country, but that’s not really the case on the west coast. Yet the bottom of the price market easily saw 10-15% increases in many areas of Sacramento. That’s not so modest.

Our “Bitcoin” real estate market in 2012 & 2013: The closest to rapid appreciation we’ve seen in Sacramento in recent years took place between 2012 and 2013 in which we saw price metrics change by 35-40% over the course of one year. During that time both real estate agents and appraisers said it wasn’t easy to keep up with how quickly prices were changing.

$7M Sale: Did you see the sale in Granite Bay that closed two days ago at $6.95M? What the? This is one of the highest residential sales ever in the Sacramento area. You can watch a video tour of it here. Also, that $4.1M condo listing Downtown has been pending since November. I don’t know what it’s in contract for yet, but let’s talk about it when it closes.

Rents: Sacramento made a list again on the fastest growing rents. Yardi Matrix reports a 9.1% uptick in rent year over year in November. Now if we can only get wages to grow by 9.1% too.

Price Sensitive: Lastly, the market may not be incredibly dull like it is during some fall seasons, but it’s still price sensitive. This means buyers are tending to be logical, well-informed, and often not so desperate as to offer any amount. My advice? Don’t just look to the high sales from the spring and summer. What is getting into contract right now? That will give you a good picture of the current market and a hint for how to price too (possibly lower than the height of spring / summer).

I could go on, but let’s get visual.

DOWNLOAD 69 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

The median price is currently $349,450. It’s the same as last month but down 1% from summer.
The median price is 7.5% higher than the same time last year.
Sales volume in November was 4.5% lower this year than 2016. There were 1354 single family detached sales last month.
It took an average of 32 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 4 days longer).
The median days on market last month was 18 days.
It took 3 more days to sell in Nov. compared to October (median days).
FHA sales were 20% of all sales last month in the county.
Only 1.4% of sales last month were bank-owned & 0.9% were short sales.
The avg price per sq ft was about $224, which increased last month (11% higher than last year).
The avg sales price softened slightly last month and is currently $385,778. This is 10% higher than last year.
Cash sales were 13% of all sales last month.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO REGION:

The median price is $389,000. It softened nearly 1% last month.
The median price is 9.5% higher than the same time last year.
Sales volume in November was nearly the same as Nov 2016. There were 2220 single family detached sales last month.
It took an average of 36 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 5 days longer).
The median days on market last month was 19 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
The median days on market increased by 1 day last month, which shows a slowing in the market.
FHA sales were 17.2% of all sales last month.
Only 1.5% of sales last month were bank-owned & 0.8% were short sales.
The avg price per sq ft was about $230, which increased last month (10% higher than last year).
The avg sales price increased less than 1% last month and is up 10% higher than last year.
Cash sales were 14% of all sales last month.

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

PLACER COUNTY:

The median price is currently $451,000 and decreased about 1% last month.
The median price is 5.6% higher than the same time last year.
Sales volume in November was 3.6% lower than 2016. There were 473 single family detached sales.
It took an average of 40 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 9 days longer).
The median days on market last month was 19 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
The median days on market deceased by 3 days last month (don’t read too much into that).
FHA sales were 12.6% of all sales.
There were only 9 bank-owned sales last month and only 2 short sales.
The avg price per sq ft was $236, which is slightly higher than last month (9% higher than last year).
The avg sales price is currently $513,280. This is 6.8% higher than last year.
Cash sales were 17% of all sales last month.

DOWNLOAD 69 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there in the market? Anything I missed? I’d love to hear your take.

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That place where fame & real estate meet

November 29, 2017 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

How does fame impact a home? Does it matter for value if a famous person lived there? What if something notorious happened at the property? Let’s talk about this and consider a few examples. Please note there are entire books written on this subject, so don’t expect an exhaustive dissertation here. Any thoughts? I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

Here are a few examples:

Breaking Bad: The house where the TV series Breaking Bad was filmed was all over the news last month because the owner is building a 6′ front yard fence to keep people out of her yard. According to Albuquerque KOB4 there is a constant stream of visitors and fans have even thrown pizzas on the roof to reenact the main character Walter White doing so in an episode. The owner is clearly not thrilled, and I can’t imagine neighbors are either unless they can somehow monetize the situation.

Kurt Cobain’s Baby House: Brandon Turner at Bigger Pockets is an investor and he accidentally bought a home where Kurt Cobain lived as a baby. The duplex was purchased as an investment without any knowledge of the lead singer of Nirvana’s connection to the property. But tenants began complaining about photos being taken of the front of the house, and that’s how the connection was discovered.

The Almost Governor’s Mansion in California: The State of California built a Governor’s mansion in the 1970s in Carmichael, which is about 10 miles from Downtown Sacramento. This mansion began construction under Governor Ronald Reagan’s leadership, but it was not completed until Jerry Brown took office. Brown actually refused to live in this house, which he dubbed “The Taj Mahal”. This home sold for 4.1M in 2004 and has 8 bedrooms, 8 bathrooms and is 11,984 sq ft. The mansion is still there today, but some of the site has been subdivided for a few custom homes. This is literally one of a few residential homes EVER in Sacramento County that sold above $4M.

Reagan House in the Fab 40s Neighborhood: Governor Ronald Reagan and his family chose not to live in the old Governor’s mansion in Downtown Sacramento back in the 70s, so they moved to East Sacramento on 45th Street to lease a home in the “Fabulous 40s” neighborhood. The home boasted over 6,000 square feet with six bedrooms and four bathrooms (according to Tax Records). The home last recorded for $1,765,000 in May 2000. Not everyone can say, “The future President used to live here when he was Governor”. Do you think that matters for value?

Here’s a look at the price point of the Reagan house. What do you see?

Homicidal Handyman House: There is a property in Oak Park where a serial killer dubbed “The Homicidal Handyman” murdered someone in the later 80s. This property was purchased last year by an investor and I’m waiting to see if it comes on the market (it has a choice location). This murder occurred about 30 years ago though, and the reality is that stigma associated with gruesome crimes fades over time. In other words, it might be a big deal for value to buy a property right after a murder, but much less of an issue if the crime occurred 30 years ago. I observed a recent murder property in the Sacramento market and in this case there was a 5-10% hit on value, though it might not have been an issue at all had the murder taken place 30 years ago instead of recently. Architectural Digest actually did a great piece on stigma recently and I was pleased to see they interviewed Jonathan Miller.

Dorothea Puente Murder House: Seven bodies were discovered at a duplex on F St in Sacramento in the late 80s compliments of Dorothea Puente. She lured victims to her “boarding” home, drugged and buried them, and then cashed their social security checks. This Victorian duplex has some charm as you can see, but it definitely has a dark history too. There was a documentary made about this house in 2015 and the owner has even given tours through the years too. This just goes to show it may be possible to monetize a famous house. Though in this case the owner has donated tour proceeds toward organizations working to alleviate homelessness (way to go).

Here’s a sales history of the Puente duplex. What do you see?

Lady Bird House: A recent movie called Lady Bird is set in Sacramento and had some filming done in the city too. Here is the front of one of the home’s shown in the movie (located in Fab 40s). This was not the main character’s dwelling, so it may not attract much of a following, though it’ll be interesting to see if people snap selfies here. For reference, the San Francisco Chronicle shared Lady Bird filming locations so fans can visit. In this case the owner probably has some bragging rights to say, “My home was in Lady Bird”, and I’d imagine any future listing would mention this fact. But will the market as a whole pay more for a house like this because it had a minor role in a movie? I’ll give you my opinion in the comments if you give me yours.

And here’s my Lady Bird selfie. 🙂

Closing thoughts: It seems like fame can either be good or bad when it comes to real estate values. If a house is famous for something gruesome, it could easily harm value (duh). But part of it depends on how long ago a crime occurred. On the other hand if a home is historically important, it could be a huge bonus for value (duh again). Yet fame can come at a cost too by increasing foot traffic and looky-loos. Would an owner have to disclose the stream of unwanted visitors to potential buyers? Could this potentially limit marketability? Could it impact rental value if there were camera flashes happening at night? Would tenants get fed up over time? These are important questions to ask. Lastly, we would be wise to not overthink a property’s value that had “15 minutes of fame” so to speak. Thus just because a home had a cameo in a movie or was previously owned by someone famous does not mean at the end of the day the market is going to pay anything more for the property. It’s true certain fans might offer more for a particular home owned by a celebrity or athlete, but what would the market as a whole pay? That’s always the bigger question.

Think Like an Appraiser Class (I’m teaching): By the way, I’m doing my favorite class on Dec 7 from 9am-12pm called How to Think Like an Appraiser. We’ll talk through comp selection, making adjustments, tips for talking about value, and what to do in various scenarios. Details here.

Questions: Would you buy a house that was famous in a movie or owned by someone famous? Why or why not? Have you seen any measurable impact to value for a celebrity property? I’d love to hear your take.

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appraisals in Sacramento

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