Toxic Water & Real Estate: An interview with a Realtor from Flint

What happens to a real estate market when the water is unsafe to drink? In light of the tragic situation unfolding right now in Flint, Michigan, I thought this would be a timely conversation. So I reached out to Realtor Ryan McFarlane who has sold nearly 1000 homes in Flint. This brief interview isn’t an exhaustive case study, but only one conversation centered on real estate (which has so much to do with people). I’d love to hear your take in the comments below.

Flint real estate agent interview - by sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased from 123rf and used with permission

Tell me about yourself. How long have you been in real estate? How much business have you done in Flint?

Realtor Ryan MacFarlane - MichiganMy name is Ryan McFarlane. I originally got into real estate around 2004. Overall I’ve sold over 3000 homes, and about 1000 of them have been in Flint; the company I work for now was actually started in Flint.

What is the population of Flint?

According to the census, the population is 99,763. However, it used to be 141,553 in 1990. When GM closed down their plants, it was devastating for the housing market and job market in Flint as a blue collar town.

What is the City of Flint like for those who have only read it about it recently?

I would say there are still some nice areas of housing. People are investing in Flint and trying to bring up the Downtown area. Though when you get off the beaten path, there are some rough patches. There are still good areas, but there are many bad areas. Some people say it’s all bad, but it’s not that way. There are also some good things going on, but the attention is often on the bad things.

flint listing - by sacramento appraisal blog

How much do properties tend to sell for in the city?

As of right now there are 352 active properties on the market in the City of Flint. The low end is about $500 and the highest listing is $229,000. In the last year the highest sale was $350,000, but it was over 6000 sq ft and a custom home in a historical area. Otherwise most properties in the city are going to sell under $30,000. The majority of sales are bank-owned properties. Sometimes properties literally sell for nothing since people call me and want to transfer the quitclaim deed to someone else. Sometimes a bank-owned property is in such bad condition that it is worth absolutely nothing. Other times a home will be bulldozed and the land will be sold (often a neighbor will buy the land). Some owners will not pay their taxes too because they might end up paying say $1000 for taxes when the property is only worth $500.

What is the median income of Flint residents?

The median income is $24,834 according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

flint vs sacramento

How much does a typical house rent for in Flint?

I would say on average about $500 per month.

How much are water bills right now in Flint? How does this compare to surrounding areas?

A family of 4 told me recently their bill was $250 per month, and the bill has to be paid even though they cannot use the water. Even vacant houses are being charged $50-60 per month for water. Some surrounding areas bill on a quarterly basis, and the quarterly water bill ends up being about the same as someone’s monthly bill in Flint.

NOTE from SacBlog: Most articles online state Flint residents are easily paying $140 to $150 per month for water they cannot use. This is obviously only an average since Ryan mentioned above that some residents are paying $250. Keep in mind $150 per month is 7% of a household’s monthly income (based on the median income in Flint). Also, if a home rents for say $600, the water bill is 25% of rent. Imagine a $1500 rental in Sacramento and having a $375 water bill (that’s 25%).

flint listing 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Some say it’s illegal to sell a house with toxic water. Is that true?

Legally there is nothing that says you cannot sell. There was a recent article from the Michigan Association of Realtors that said you can sell them, but you need to disclose the water issue on the seller’s disclosure form to make people aware of the water issue. Though buyers would have to be living in a cave to not know about the water issue already, so the disclosure is only a formality.

Some appraiser colleagues working in the Flint area say FHA and USDA have asked appraisers to verify where a home is getting water from since FHA/USDA don’t want to guarantee loans on properties using Flint water. Have you found this to be the case too?

Most of my deals have been cash buyers, though there have been people getting loans though too.

NOTE from SacBlog: Who is lending in Flint? Please comment below. I want to hear if any FHA and conventional lenders are making deals happen. Unsafe water is a clear health and safety issue, which would seemingly prohibit FHA deals from happening.

flint listing 3 - by sacramento appraisal blog

What impact are you seeing the toxic water issue to have on the local market in terms of values?

In some senses we may see a slight decline in sales and out-of-state investors are probably not going to be buying properties. But at the same time, sales are going to happen. From a practical standpoint the water issue has to be fixed. Nobody knows when that will happen, but we all know it will presumably happen. Flint is still one of the most affordable places to buy for locals. At the end of the day, values are already so low that they cannot go down much more than they have already. However, anything that is considered “higher-end” will probably be impacted since buyers will definitely look at what they can buy somewhere else for the same price (and not have water issues). But I don’t think there will be much effect under $30,000. You just can’t pick up homes in other nearby places for those low prices.

NOTE on rents from SacBlog: It’s interesting to consider what may happen with rents in outlying areas near Flint. If residents leave the city, will rents elsewhere increase? This reminds me of some reports of price gouging with rents in Porter Ranch in Southern California, which is the community where residents had to be evacuated due to an ongoing methane gas leak.

Have you heard or seen any impact on the commercial sector?

Yes. Businesses serve bottled water and they seem to be careful about water filtration. A few years ago GM had a nearby used motor facility just on the border of Flint. After doing some water testing, apparently the water was not good enough to spray on their motors.

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I hope you enjoyed this brief interview. Thank you again to Ryan McFarlane for his time and insight.

Questions: What if anything stood out to you about what Ryan said? What would you expect to see happen in a real estate market when the water is toxic? What would happen in your market?

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The tallest real estate graph ever in Sacramento

Did you hear about the 100 million dollar condo sale in New York recently? It’s hard to grasp just how much money that is for only one residence. For context, $100,000,000 is about a 19% ownership of the Sacramento Kings, a 10% share of the San Francisco Giants, or a 20% ownership of the Oakland A’s (Forbes). After reading about this sale from New York appraiser Jonathan Miller, and seeing his “tall” graph of the New York market, I was inspired to do something similar.

The Tallest Real Estate Graph Ever in Sacramento: From what I can tell, the image below is the tallest real estate graph ever in Sacramento. This is a unique view of the residential housing market from 2012 through 2014. What do you see?

sacramento county sales from 2012 to 2014 - residential only - sales on mls only - by sacramento appraisal blog

The Small Version of the Graph Above:

The small version of sales in sacramento county since 2012 - sacramento appraisal blog

Sales Above $1M in Sacramento County Since 2008:

Sales above 1M in Sacramento County since October 2008 - sacramento appraisal blog

When we look at the market in different ways, sometimes we can better understand it and then explain it to clients. I hope this was helpful and interesting. As always, feel free to share this post with your contacts, and if you plan to post a graph on your site or in your newsletter, please see my sharing policy (it’s an honor when people share – thanks).

Question: What do you see in the graphs above?

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Tips for effective blogging for business

Do you have a blog for your business? Why or why not? I’ve been blogging consistently for over five years, and it’s made a very significant difference for me. In fact, I’m coming up on post #1000 very soon here, and I’m excited about that. Anyway, about six weeks ago I spoke at Drexel University for a Sacramento Business Journal event about effective business blogging. I wanted to share the talk with you in case it might be useful. I give an overview of blogging and provide very practical tips for how to blog. This is not about SEO tricks, but about the nuts and bolts of developing solid client-centric content. This is good background fodder while working, or might be useful while driving or cleaning the house. Check it out below (or here), and let me know what you think.

I did this presentation with video and social media expert Kerry Shearer, and here is a shot of me in action (if you tied my hands, I probably wouldn’t be able to speak).

ryan lundquist blogging class - sacramento business journal

SacBiz-Journal-Event

Some tidbits: In the video I mentioned the importance of developing a subscriber list, but I forgot to go into more detail. You can use a tool like MailChimp to manage subscribers. Also, this class was on both blogging and video. I mentioned in one part that I would show certain videos, but that portion didn’t make it into the video above. Here is the playlist of videos I showed during the presentation as examples of different types of videos you can make (talking head, scrolling photos, screencast, green screen, etc…). I played the first 5-10 seconds of each video.

how to create original blog content

How to come up with post ideas: Lastly, I mentioned my blog content cloud (see above), which is what I use to keep 20-30 post ideas in front of me at any given moment. I simply write down post ideas and keep them on a cork board above my monitor. One of the most important aspects of blogging is consistency, but one of the major hurdles for success is actually coming up with consistent content. That’s why this content cloud helps me thrive. Download for free and use as you wish.

I hope this was helpful.

Questions: Do you have a blog? Why or why not? Any other insight?

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My podcast with BiggerPockets.com

Bigger Pockets PodcastI sat down recently with the CEO and Community Manager of BiggerPockets.com to do a podcast. We ended up having a great conversation about how appraisers do their job, market trends and challenging low appraisals among other issues.

It was a huge honor to do this podcast since BiggerPockets has an enormous online network of real estate investors and professionals with over 100,000 site members. You can listen to the podcast online or via iTunes. Since our conversation is about 50 minutes, it may be helpful to listen on your iPod or maybe tune in while working or driving. Also, in case it’s relevant, I wrote an article on BiggerPockets this week on how to challenge a low appraisal (it includes a rebuttal format you can use and download).

Links for Listening to the Podcast:
BiggerPockets Podcast Online
BiggerPockets on iTunes (Show #7)

Thanks for your support.

If you have any questions or Sacramento home appraisal or property tax appeal needs, let’s connect by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email (or RSS) or “like” my page on Facebook