I inspected a condominium last week in the Hillcrest Park neighborhood in Vallejo, CA. I wanted to share a graph of sales within the subdivision over the past five years. What do you see?

While in the Hillcrest Park neighborhood, I shot the following video as I was considering the vast decline in property value and the impact foreclosure can have on a neighborhood – even beyond real estate values.  

Condominium properties have been hit hard in many niches within the Greater Sacramento Region because the price of single family detached homes has become so much more affordable, and an HOA fee plus a mortgage payment often does not make good economic sense for buyers. Why pay more for a condo when you can get a detached home without an HOA fee, right? That’s often the rationale.

By the way, if you are in the market to purchase a condominium, I would strongly suggest you research the health of the HOA before making a purchase. It would be tragic to purchase a condo only to find out the association is bankrupt.

Do you watch Foreclosure Radar’s videos? I like to check them out because it’s interesting to see some of their points in action in the local market trenches I work in each day. Based on the data, it seems like bad news on some levels for California in that Notice of Defaults increased and there were more pre-foreclosures last month too. But at the same time the number of properties that actually went back to the bank during June 2010 went down.

Are we out of the foreclosure woods? What do you think? What are you seeing in the market in the course of business or even in your own neighborhood?

Foreclosure Radar gives the following points (from YouTube): “Foreclosure filings were up in June after two months of decline. Foreclosure cancellations reached a record high of 21,962 in June, up 27.09% from May. The number of properties purchased by 3rd parties dropped by 23.73% since last month, but those properties bought were at the best margins in months. Fewer properties went back to the bank, down 23.73% from the prior month. Time-to-Foreclosure was flat month over month, but up 34.93% from June 2009. Time-to-Resell continued it’s slow ascent, up 5.95% for the banks and up 4.29% for 3rd parties.”

What do you get when a builder runs out of money in the current economy, but is only half-way finished with a house? Answer: Probably a foreclosure. This was certainly the case with three 2,222 square foot 4/2.5 properties on the corner of 37th Street and 12th Avenue in the Oak Park Area of Sacramento. 

I am very pleased to see these foreclosures were purchased earlier this year in a bundle deal by the same buyer for $35,000 each, and they are currently being rehabbed. When I think of an area improving, this appears to be a win because improvement happens one house at a time, doesn’t it?

How is the Sacramento real estate market doing? Is it getting better or worse? Are there more bank-owned sales right now than in recent years? There are so many indicators for the health of a real estate market, but let’s take a look at the percentage of bank-owned foreclosure sales (REO) vs. short sales. What do you see? What stands out to you? Any good news here? 

* Data is based on Sacramento MLS for all single family detached properties in Sacramento.

Looking at the sales history of a property can be very telling. In fact, you can often get clues into the happenings of the real estate market. Here is an interesting sales history for a Sacramento fourplex I came across in the course of a current appraisal I’m working on. This is not at all atypical because the market for residential-income properties really boomed in Sacramento (and then it fell hard too).

7/25/2000 – $110,000 sale
7/16/2002 – $278,000 sale
8/18/2004 – $435,000 sale
2/10/2005 – $459,000 sale
9/08/2008 – $377,500 sale  (maybe a short sale – did not list in MLS)
5/01/2009 – $104,250 (transfer to bank – foreclosure)
7/13/2009 – $140,000 sale

What do you see? Does anything stand out to you? Let me know if you have any questions about the local real estate market or your neighborhoood. One of the things I enjoy most about my job is that I get to talk with local home owners and real estate agents about important decisions they are making.

Language is important. The way we describe things can evoke certain emotions and reactions, so we must choose our words carefully. This is true in all aspects of life, and definitely true in real estate. I always smile when I see the ways agents attempt to not say “bank-owned” or “REO” or “Foreclosure” in listings. I suppose if potential buyers would be put off by “FORECLOSURE”, then by all means, use a different word or phrase. In place of “bank-owned” I’ve seen “corporate-owned” or “owned by the mortgage company” or “lender-owned” or “liquidation sale”.

If you were in the market to purchase a property, would it matter to you whether something was labeled as “corporate-owned” or “foreclosure”? Is there any stigma in your mind for a home that is selling as bank-owned?

Last Friday the Sacramento Bee came out with a story that Dorthea Puente’s old house at 1426 F Street in Sacramento would be going up for sale. Who is Dorethea Puente, you ask? She is a woman who ran a “boarding house” in the 1980s out of her Sacramento Victorian duplex. Unfortunately though instead of finding respite her tenants were drugged and murdered so their social security checks could be cashed. Eventually seven bodies were found buried in Dorothea’s backyard.

This property sold for $560,000 on 08/31/2005, went into foreclosure last year, and is now listed on the market at $309,800 as of 02/26/2010. The current MLS listing states, “Property has notorious history that must be disclosed.” 

Would you have any problems purchasing a property like this? Or would you consider renting this house? Would it bother you on any level or be no big deal? Creepy? Good investment? If you are a real estate agent, have you had experience selling a property with a stigma due to a murder, violent crime or some other heinous or notorious issue?

Original photos of 1426 F Street (it was a bit cloudy today unfortunately):

What sort of a price difference is there between bank-owned properties (REO), short sales, and arms-length transactions in the market? For an example, let’s take a look at a trend graph of all sales in Rancho Cordova below, where blue dots are REO sales, green dots are Short Sales and red dots are typical arms-length sales (per Sacramento MLS).

Each neighborhood, niche, and location will differ in results, but generally speaking, like the data above seems to show for Rancho Cordova sales over the past 2 years, buyers tend to pay more for houses that are non-distressed transactions (notice how the red dots on the graph above tend to be located toward the top and NOT the bottom). When it comes to REO properties, it looks like the price level is a bit higher overall than short sales, though there are quite a few short sales on the upper-end of the market too. In fact, both Rancho Cordova and Sacramento County saw a 7% increase in short sales last year in comparison to the year before, so clearly there is a greater acceptance for short sales in the marketplace.

One important observation is that most of the sales at the bottom of the market are bank-owned. Why is that? Investors typically gobble up the lowest end of the market with all-cash offers because fixer-type properties at the lowest level will not qualify for conventional or government financing. This means first-time buyers utilizing conventional or FHA financing will usually need to look to a price level above the “all cash” market. In light of this segmentation, imagine scraping off the bottom layer of all-cash foreclosures. What would you find? You’d still see many REO properties, but you’d certainly see a good amount of Short Sales too. 

Overall, in my experience as a Sacramento-area real estate appraiser it seems the market price tier goes: 1) Arms-length sale; 2) REO; 3) Short Sale. This is common sense really, but it’s another thing to prove that by crunching numbers, making trend graphs, and observing data in the marketplace. But there are certainly cases and stories and sub-markets that might show a different order for whatever reason - especially depending on the supply of housing inventory and particulars of a given property. Interestingly enough, sometimes there is little to no difference between non-distressed sales and REO sales. For example, what does it do to pricing differences when 90% of all sales in a market are either bank-owned or short sales? In a case like this, since the market is clearly saturated with distressed sales, it’s probably a safe bet to assume foreclosure-pricing is indeed the market and will set the pace for what buyers expect to pay for properties (see a previous post on Patterson having 96.5% of all sales as distressed). In a case like this, there may be no verifiable difference between REO and non-distressed sales.

Let me know if you have questions or insight. Comments are welcome.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com Is there a price difference between REO properties, short sales, and arms-length transactions?

We hear so many voices in today’s real estate market talk about the foreclosure rate decreasing in the Sacramento Region. Is that true? Are there less REO (bank-owned) sales today than there were two or three years ago? Let’s look at some hard numbers below for Sacramento County.

The information above is based on all residential sales listed in Sacramento Metrolist over the past two years. Overall, it’s true that there were less bank-owned sales in Sacramento County during the last 12 months in comparison to the year before that. The foreclosure rate decreased by 5% overall, but the interesting thing is that short sales increased by 7% during this same time period. What do you make of that? Have short sales simply replaced what would have been a similar rate of foreclosure for this year? As a home owner or real estate agent, have you found banks to be more receptive to working with you to do a short sale? Comments welcome.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com The Up and Down Dynamic of Foreclosures and Short Sales in Sacramento County

Trivia Question: How many zip codes are there in Sacramento County? (answer below)

I use the California HomeTownLocator website when looking for zip codes of particular cities. This site has been valuable for both business and personal use. I keep the link in my bookmarks since it is a quick reference to obtain zip codes for any city in California as well as search for other information such as census data and county details.

Case in point: Whenever I sign up with a new Asset Management Company for bank-owned properties in the Sacramento Region, they typically ask for a list of zip codes I cover. Instead of having to google each city I work in and find each individual zip code, I simply go to the Home Town Locator site and I get the information I need all in one place. Very convenient.

Triva Answer: There are 145 zip codes within Sacramento County.

This blog will host a “Lowest Priced House on MLS” category because it’s always interesting to answer the question, “should I buy this house or should I buy a car instead?” Yep, the prices are often that low.  

And the winner is…. $12,500.

620 E 4th Street, Stockton CA is for sale at $12,500. Per Tax Records, this property was built in 1936, has 1025 square feet of living area, 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a lot size of 3,920 square feet. So why is it priced so low? Well, it looks like it had a little fire damage to say the least.

It is a banked owned property and has been listed on the market for 142 days total with three separate Listing Agents. The property has been priced for only 21 days at $12,500 and appears to have generated a contract at least once (but back to Active status now). I’ll put you into contact with the Listing Agent if anyone is interested in forking out $12,500 greenbacks – it’s an all cash deal because of the condition (no, I don’t know the Agent).