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Blackstone

Zillow has officially entered the market

October 9, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 44 Comments

Zillow is here. As of two days ago they’ve officially entered the market in Sacramento and they have big plans to expand to other territories too. Let’s talk about this. Here’s what’s swirling through my mind. Anything to add?

Corporate flipper: Zillow is basically going to be flipping homes. Their website doesn’t use this language because “flipping” has a negative connotation sometimes. But they’ll be buying below market value, doing repairs as needed, and then selling higher. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck…

Narrow focus: Like many tech companies we’re going to see Zillow with a buy list. I’ve yet to see something published, but they’ll likely focus on conforming homes in a specific price range rather than unique or high-priced homes that might be more difficult to sell. This reminds us of Blackstone from 2012 and 2013 as they had specific standards for what they were looking to purchase. On a side note, if you work in real estate and you’re worried about the invasion of tech companies, then diversify into places and price ranges where iBuyer models aren’t going.

There is a place for tech: This may be an unpopular opinion and I may have a few people want to fight me, but there is a place for big tech companies in real estate. This doesn’t mean I’m excited about Zillow and Opendoor, but the world has changed and speaking objectively there are other models beyond the traditional model that will appeal to certain buyers and sellers.

Trust & getting a pass: Consumers tend to trust anything that’s online, so there’s already a high degree of trust with a brand like Zillow, and they’re now here to capitalize off of it. It’s as if they get a pass though because they’re not real estate agents or flippers (and they’re trying hard not to be seen that way). But let’s remember the obvious. They are here to work the system to their advantage and make money off consumers.

Tech is the minority: Tech companies are getting a ton of press, but these brands are the minority in the market right now by a long shot. For instance, Opendoor has 70 listings in the Sacramento region. That’s impressive for a start-up, but at the same time it’s only 1.4% of all listings. My guess is Zillow will be aiming to represent 2-3% of the market this year in terms of sales volume. Again, this is impressive, but let’s remember the vast bulk of sales in coming time are going to be sold traditionally.

The irony of the Zestimate: Zillow won’t be using their Zestimate as a basis for making offers. I get it, but I also find it ironic since they’ve built their brand around the legitimacy of the Zestimate.

Affordability: The unfortunate thing here about big corporations entering local real estate is it doesn’t help affordability. I’m not saying tech companies are going to cause prices to rise, but when the focus is on flipping homes, this won’t help keep prices lower.

Service fee vs commission: Lots of tech companies say stuff like, “Hey, we don’t charge commissions like real estate agents,” but this is disingenuous because there is a “service fee” that is basically the same amount or even more than we find in a typical real estate transaction.

The narrative of convenience & profit: Like many tech firms, Zillow is preaching the idea of convenience rather than profit. Their goal is to make escrows easier and smooth rather than helping a seller net the most money. If you listen carefully, few of these companies are saying sellers will actually make more because it’s simply not true in most cases. Remember, these corporate real estate machines have to buy low in order to make a profit. They’ll also be asking for credits for repairs, which makes sellers net even less.

Doing math: I strongly recommend for consumers to do the math when it comes to selling to a tech company vs selling on the open market. You’ll likely yield more profit on the open market if money is your concern.

Data issues: The data geek in me is thinking about numbers. I’m worried about properties being listed off MLS and data being watered down because there are missing sales. The good news here is I’m told homes bought by Zillow are going to be listed for sale on MLS (fingers crossed this happens). By the way, Zillow is going to be using a local brokerage for their acquisitions and sales.

Small investors: Corporate flippers coming to the market will make it more difficult for small investors because there’s an extra layer of competition now.

The price cycle: We are closer to the top of a price cycle, so I find it ironic to see tech brands jumping into the game. My guess is it’s much easier to find success in an up market than a down one. We’ll see how it pans out.

Other: What else? Please comment below.

Closing thoughts for real estate friends: It’s not easy when change happens and I know lots of people are worried about the future of real estate because of what we’re seeing right now. If I could offer any advice though, I’d say to accept the reality that tech companies are going to be a part of the real estate scene. For now it looks like the vast bulk of homes are going to be sold traditionally though, so I recommend focusing your time and energy on the larger portion of the population that won’t be working with these tech brands. Most of all, prove your worth. Why should someone hire you instead of a tech firm? What is your value proposition in a changing market? Prove it with uncommon service, deep knowledge, and results.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

MY COMSTOCK’S ARTICLE: I wrote a piece in Comstock’s magazine this month on the invasion of tech companies in real estate. I can’t believe it happened to be published on the same day Zillow made their big announcement.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? What are your thoughts about tech companies entering real estate? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: Blackstone, corporations flipping homes, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, Market Trends, Opendoor, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, tech companies in real estate, traditional real estate model, Zillow, Zillow in Sacramento

What does the market expect? (a critical question to ask in real estate)

July 5, 2016 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

What does the market expect? That’s one of the best questions we can ask ourselves in real estate. Why? Because it helps us keep the focus on what buyers actually demand in certain neighborhoods and price ranges. In other words, what are buyers really willing to pay more or less for in a neighborhood? Being in tune with that is definitely one of the key aspects of coming up with a credible value.

Market expectations - Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Pool Example: Take a look at the table below to see how some areas and price ranges in Sacramento have far more built-in pools than others.

Market expectations pool example by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Key Point: When built-in pools are more common in some neighborhoods and price ranges we can probably say the market expects a pool, right? This is especially true at the higher end of the price spectrum where over 70% of homes have a pool. In contrast, some areas of town have less than 1% of homes with a built-in pool, and it’s safe to say the market doesn’t expect a built-in pool in those areas. This doesn’t mean the pool is worth nothing in those places, but if anything it’s a reminder to really consider that a pool might be worth far less or more in some areas than others. While it’s tempting to always give a token $10,000 adjustment for a pool, based on the data above alone, that adjustment probably doesn’t make sense for every neighborhood because of differing expectations.

Not Just About Pools: This conversation isn’t just about built-in pools because we have to ask what the market expects for things like upgrades, square footage, condition, lot size, architectural design, bedroom count, garage spaces, landscaping, etc… As much as we’d like instant answers, there really isn’t a quick guide to understand what the market expects without immersing ourselves in comparing sales, talking with buyers and other real estate professionals, and crunching numbers.

Two Mentions: I’m honored to share a couple of recent media mentions. I was quoted in Inman SF Bay Area in “Sacramento housing boosted by Bay Area refugees” and in RealtyTrac’s June Housing News Report (PDF – pg 17-21).

Blackstone: One more thing. A recent article talked about the private equity fund Blackstone (Invitation Homes) selling off some of its homes directly to tenants. As you probably know, Blackstone purchased thousands of homes in the Sacramento market several years ago. They continue to buy today, but their purchase volume is minimal and nowhere near what it used to be. Anyway, the article states they would likely sell about 5% of their inventory this year directly to tenants. Whether that’s true for the Sacramento market or not is to be seen, but it’s worth watching closely. Keep in mind many landlords are selling straight to their tenants right now instead of listing on MLS. In short, this isn’t just a Blackstone thing.

Questions: How do you get a sense of what the market expects in a neighborhood? Any advice you’d give on how to better understand market expectations? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff Tagged With: appraised value pool, Blackstone, built-in pool in sacramento, contributory value in appraisal, home appraisals, house appraisals, Invitation Homes, pools are common, pools are not common, Real Estate Appraisals, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, sacramento housing market, sacramento regional appraisal blog, value of a built-in pool

Crystal Balls, Real Estate Trends & Black Friday

December 2, 2013 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

As the year fades away it’s now time for the beginning of what I call crystal ball real estate posts. What do I mean? Everyone will be speculating about what is going to happen in the 2014 market, and most posts will make very vague predictions. Since I don’t personally own a crystal ball, I’ll steer clear of some of that, yet I still want to point out some fundamentals to watch. Let’s think together below.

jobs interest rates and median sales price by sacramento appraisal blog

Watching the Layers: I keep mentioning the idea of the multi-layered real estate cake analogy. I don’t mean to be repetitive, but the gist of this analogy is that value in a real estate market is like a multi-layered cake since there are many “layers” in the market that help impact or create value. As you can see above, when “layers” like interest rates and unemployment are low, it tends to create space for values to rise. At the same time, it’s important to realize the Fed can artificially manipulate a market by lowering interest rates, which means jobs end up playing a lesser role in driving the housing market. This is definitely part of what happened with our recent real estate boom (doesn’t sound too healthy, right?).

jobs interest rates inventory and median sales price since january 2001 to 2013 by sacramento appraisal blog

Now let’s add in the extra “layer” of housing inventory. I know this is a busy graph, but spend a minute digesting what is happening here, and then I’ll make things easier on your eyes by zooming in on the trends.

jobs interest rates inventory and median sales price by sacramento appraisal blog

After years of declining values, the Sacramento market hit the bottom in the first quarter of 2012. Can you see that above? It’s important to note that as values began to increase, there was a huge drop in inventory and interest rates persisted to decline – both of which put upward pressure on home prices.

jobs interest rates inventory and median sales price since january 2011 by sacramento appraisal blog

Keys for 2014: Investors, low inventory and historically low interest rates have been the X-factor in the most recent value boom in the Sacramento area. It helps of course that the unemployment rate has been trending downward, but there is still quite a bit of healing needed for the local economy. As you can see in the graphs above, housing inventory and interest rates have begun to increase lately, which has been putting pressure on rising values. Personally I tend to think interest rates moving up a bit will matter less than what happens with inventory. Rates are still very low and their increase does make a difference with how much buyers can afford, but ultimately the market feels far more sensitive to inventory increasing. At the same time, cash purchases have been declining for two quarters, which is also helping to cool off values from an unsustainable rate of appreciation. It’s also worth mentioning that it will matter if Blackstone goes for Round 2 or not. Last year this one investment fund purchased anywhere from 1100-1500 houses (depending on whose numbers you use). They have been seemingly slowing down for the time being, but if they decide to ramp up their local focus again, it could effectively make the market more competitive by decreasing inventory.

appraisal christmas ad spoof

By the way, this is my spoof appraisal ad for Black Friday. What do you think? I posted this on my Facebook page last week for fun. My advice: Even though I want your business, don’t buy anyone an appraisal for Christmas.  🙂

Questions: Any thoughts, insight or stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Blackstone, Blackstone in Sacramento, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, interest rates, Inventory in Sacramento, real estate market trends, real estate trend graphs, Sacramento real estate trends, things that impact value, Unemployment Rates

Blackstone’s $196,000,000 shopping spree in Sacramento

November 18, 2013 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

Did you ever dream of winning a shopping spree as a kid? I used to imagine myself having ten minutes to fill up a cart at Toys ‘R Us with whatever I wanted. I would’ve headed straight for the baseball cards, bikes, toy guns and sports equipment. Of course I was never lucky enough to do something like that, but I’m still holding out hope for a Home Depot or Lowes spree one of these days.

$196 Million of Local Real Estate: If you didn’t know, there was a $196 million dollar real estate shopping spree that happened in the Sacramento market over the past year or so. As reported by The Sacramento Business Journal, the private equity fund Blackstone purchased roughly 1,100 homes in the local market since January 2011 (with the bulk of these purchases being after August 2012). In all Blackstone has acquired about 21,000 properties in the United States over the past year. In the Sacramento area they’ve done business as THR California, IH2 Property West and IH3 Property West, and they’re holding their properties in hopes of making more money by creating bonds from rentals. 

housing supply and median sales price by sacramento appraisal blog blackstone

Goodbye Blackstone? Over the past months Blackstone has seemingly begun to pull back on their aggressive purchasing plan. They’re still buying properties, but as of late they’ve been laying low. Some say they are done, but at the same time their system has worked well and they can easily get things moving with IH4 in 2014 if they want. Ultimately their local presence lately has felt nothing like it was last year when they were a definite catalyst in driving up values for the rest of the market. Depending on how you look at it and whether you bought or sold this past year, it’s probably either good or bad to have had one investment fund step in to buy 1,100 properties in such a short time span. Instead of parsing the arguments on both sides though, I’d rather focus on their slowdown and simply say it looks like we are seeing Blackstone’s year of market dominance fade….. for now at least. In the mean time we can expect to continue to see conventional and FHA buyers pick up their slack while Blackstone and other cash buyers are more dormant or pull out of the market. While it’s easy to criticize Blackstone, let’s consider one last thing. If you look at the graph above, you’ll see they came in at just the right time as the real estate market hit bottom after years of decline, and they also look to be slowing down at a good time also. Maybe there is a business lesson here to consider?

Blackstone Invitation Home Signs in Sacramento

UPDATE on 11/21/2013: The Sacramento Bee posted a story that states Blackstone has purchased nearly 1,500 homes in the Sacramento area. RealtyTrac shows closer to 1100 and Tax Records is about half of what RealtyTrac shows. All things considered, it is not easy to track the actual number because different sources say different things.

Questions: Any thoughts on Blackstone as they have been slowing their pace? What store would you like to win a shopping spree at?

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: Blackstone, Blackstone in Sacramento market, cash investors, graph of housing inventory, graph of median price, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, IH2 Property West LP, IH3 Property West, IH4, investment funds in Sacramento, real estate shopping spree, Sacramento real estate trends, THR California

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