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When the best comps are four years old

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Do appraisers have to use comps from the past 90 days? Nope. Of course not, but this idea is still pretty common. The truth is sometimes the best comps are much older. Usually they’re not four years old, but they were in this situation. Let’s talk about it. Anything to add?

Warning: This post is a little longer on purpose.

Some details: The subject is located in Old Folsom and was built less than ten years ago whereas most neighborhood homes were built many decades ago. The subject is about 2500 sq ft with a 572 sq ft Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU). It had a high-quality of construction and the builder nailed the architecture because it resembled the old world charm found in nearby homes.

My appraisal & the sale: I did an appraisal before the subject was on the market to assist the owner in pricing the property. This home was listed by Gail DeMarco at $899,999 and it sold for $925,000 in only six days of market exposure. It had four offers too. By the way, I appreciate getting permission to share about this property too.

Lack of recent comps: There were no recent similar sales. Zero. Most other areas of Folsom are much newer in age too, so using other neighborhoods wasn’t ideal in my book. This is why I chose to focus on older sales to understand the neighborhood market.

The city vs the neighborhood: I looked up sales to get an idea of what buyers have been paying historically in Old Folsom. Lately there hasn’t been anything above the low $700s, but if I look back in time I can see two outliers in particular. Could those be clues for me?

The best comp: As I looked back in time I found a neighborhood sale that was ideal as a comp because it was newly constructed, had era charm (higher quality), and it also had an accessory unit. It’s like the heavens opened up and gave me a gift. Yet this sale was from 2015. Doh!! But then again, this property sold twice on the open market and commanded a price premium both times, and that helped show what the market was willing to pay for something unique.

I wondered how this one comp competed with the rest of similar-sized sales in Folsom too, so I made some visuals. This gave me clues into what was competitive in the past during both sales. In other words, which areas of town did this property compete with when it sold in 2006 and 2015?

How much has the market changed? I gauged the increase in value since 2015. The market had increased about $125,000 to $150,000 since this property sold based on the trendline on the graph and other sales, so I gave a huge adjustment up in my report. By the way, if you don’t know how to graph, you can always try to see the market by comparing sales in 2015 vs 2019 or maybe crunching numbers on a CMA. But then again, why not learn to graph?

Okay, this is getting too long, but that was some of my process.

CLOSING THOUGHTS:

1) Be sure to look wide enough: Sometimes we focus so heavily on comps over the past 90 days, but there might not be any. At times we need to look much further in time to get a sense for how a unique property might fit into the market. Whatever we do, let’s just be cautious about imposing such a narrow view that we miss older sales that might be relevant. Usually we might have sales within the past 12 months, but this was a unique case. I’d recommend finding more than one comparable sale too because one data point might not be enough to get a sense of value.

2) Keeping lenders happy: Lenders like things to be neat and often ask appraisers for very recent sales, but in my mind there just wasn’t anything adequate to use that was recent. This would be a really ugly appraisal for a lender, and it’s why I told the owner that the appraiser for the loan was going to have a hard time finding two other similar sales that were more recent. I don’t know what the appraiser did, but part of me hopes at least the appraiser used this one older sale because it was the best (in my mind).

3) Crunching old data but using new sales: It’s possible to use old data to help understand the market and still focus on new comps. So in a case like this you could study much older sales but then choose to focus on much newer ones in an actual appraisal or CMA.

4) The fine print of lenders: Keep in mind lenders do sometimes have requirements for how old comps can be. For instance, FHA wants all sales to be within 12 months. So if a buyer here was using FHA, I could study older sales and even give weight to this older sale in the comments in my report, but I wouldn’t actually use this as a comp in my appraisal.

REAL ESTATE AGENTS: If you happen to be having a conversation with an appraiser about sales you used to price the property (without pressuring the appraiser to meet a certain value of course), I suggest you generally try to focus on more recent data because lenders tend to get fixated on new sales. Yet don’t be afraid to talk through older stuff. Just be sure older sales are truly relevant though. For instance, in the case above it would be okay to share this one comp from 2015 because it was truly the best one. But you hands-down need current stuff too.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

CLASS I’M TEACHING: I’m doing my favorite class at SAR on May 28th from 9am-12pm called “How to Think Like an Appraiser.” Sign up here.

Questions: Anything else to add? What would have you done in this situation?

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When value is higher on one street than another

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The cookie cutter tract homes are the easy ones, but sometimes value can change dramatically from one street to another – especially in older eclectic areas. Maybe you’ve seen this before after pulling comps and finding a huge disparity in prices. Today let’s look at an example of this happening to me recently. Any thoughts? I’d love to hear your take.

value higher on one street - sacramento appraisal blog

Values are sometimes all over the place, and that’s exactly what I saw when appraising a house in Carmichael. Take a look below at the graph. How do you think the subject street fits into the market?

Subject street in Carmichael - Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Value Conclusion: When we look at the graph with over 17 years of neighborhood sales, it’s clear properties on the subject street tend to compete toward the mid-to-higher end of the market range (even when they aren’t all that updated). Keep in mind every sale on the graph is between 1600-2100 sq ft, so we are looking at a tight range over a long period of time. You can also see there is a range where most properties have been selling between $350,000 to $500,000 lately.

Some tips for seeing the market in eclectic neighborhoods:

1) Pay close attention to subject street sales: There were 7 available sales for me to look at on the subject street over the past two decades. This might seem limiting, but it’s much better than zero, and ultimately it means I have seven data points that might help me see the context for how the subject street fits into the market. Of course we always have to use good professional judgment and not get caught up in giving too much weight to very little data. 

2) Look through years of data: In an eclectic area where values seem to be all over the place it’s a good idea to study the market by looking at years of sales. The goal is to know how value works and be able to see which streets or types of properties are fetching price premiums. When looking at areas like Fair Oaks, Carmichael, and East Sacramento, this is very key. In this case I appraised the subject property around $450,000, but there were sales within blocks that were coming in between $350,000 to $375,000 with seemingly superior upgrades too (probably why Zillow had this one at $378,000). After studying the market and carefully comparing previous sales on the subject street it was clear the subject street sales were competing at a higher price tier compared to other streets. It would have been a shame if I hastily pulled up three “comps” and brought this one in at $350,000 when the market was clearly willing to pay more.

3) The feel of the street: On paper it might look like we are pulling good “comps”, but then after driving by other streets we might see a lower quality of construction, or unkempt homes, or maybe a negative influence from commercial property.

4) Real estate community: It’s helpful to talk with other real estate professionals who know the neighborhood. I find most real estate agents and appraisers are actually pretty helpful when you call to say, “Hey, I have a question. May I bend your ear for a minute?” I realize not everyone is receptive to talking (lame), but that doesn’t take away the importance of building good relationships in the real estate community so we can exchange information. My advice? When people call you, be the type of person you wish everyone else was. Bottom line. All things considered, it is worth noting we still have to be careful not to impose someone’s perception of the market on our value. So let’s seek insight from others, but let’s also not forget to look at actual data and support the value we say exists.

5) Learn to graph so you can see the market: The graph above was part of my research and it helped me visualize the market. I know, here I am mentioning graphing again, but I only do that because it’s revolutionized the way I see the market. Anyway, here is a tutorial I made for learning to make a basic scatter graph in Excel. If you didn’t know, there are a couple of programs you can use to quickly export neighborhood data from MLS to make graphs. I might suggest looking at Don’s 1004MC program (for locals and some other states (right now his site is down)) and Trendsheet (covers many states). These programs are built for appraisers, but I tell Realtor friends all the time to consider using them and just skip the appraiser stuff. 

UPDATE: I was asked by several people in the comments and by email how to make a graph like the one above, so I made a video tutorial. Check it out here or below.

I hope that was useful or interesting.

Questions: What is #6? Did I miss anything? How do you figure out if there is a value premium for a certain street? How do you avoid choosing the wrong comps? I’d love to hear your take.

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