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Curtis Park

Fake real estate trends & rising rents

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Let’s talk about fake news. No, not anything political. Let’s consider a couple of examples where it’s easy to misunderstand trends and then report fake real estate news. Then let’s look at how rent increases are fueling the 2-4 unit market. Anything to add? I’d love to hear your take.

Part I: This is Part I of my big monthly market update. Part II will come next week. If you need a few graphs now for marketing, send me an email. This post is long on purpose. Scroll or read in depth.

1) FAKE NEWS: The market is starting to turn because sales volume is down.

TRUTH: Sales volume declined by 21% last month in Sacramento County. That sounds dramatic, right? Should we be concerned? Is the market shifting? Nope. It’s actually normal to see volume drop like this between December and January. I circled January in red below as proof. This January was actually the strongest we’ve seen since 2013.

2) FAKE NEWS: The market is flat and didn’t have a price lull during the fall.

TRUTH: The median price has been flat in Sacramento County for six months, and normally it softens by about 5% during the fall, but that didn’t happen this year. So it’s easy to say that the market is so “hot” that prices didn’t dip, but that’s not true. Here’s the thing. Sometimes the median price ends up being a bit more flat despite the market showing a legitimate cooling. Besides, if we step back and look at the average sales price and average price per sq ft, both declined during the fall. Moreover, the median price in the region also declined. The moral of the story? Don’t put all your eggs in the median price basket.

3) *FAKE NEWS: Bay Area residents are buying EVERYTHING in Sacramento.

Truth: Bay Area folks are getting lots of attention and they should since there are over 20,000 new Bay Area residents migrating to Sacramento each year according to the Greater Sacramento Economic Council and Mercury News. That’s jaw-dropping to hear, but let’s pause and consider a few things.

* WHAT I AM NOT SAYING (update): I am not saying Bay Area buyers are not a factor in our market. They are. Bottom line. All I am saying is they are not buying everything. Thus it can be misleading news to perpetuate the idea that our market is being utterly gutted by Bay Area residents. As we have conversation about Bay Area buyers, let’s consider some of the points below. I find these fascinating for the sake of our conversation. Moreover, when we are talking about trends, let’s look to not only how the market feels, but actual stats too where possible.

A) Bay Area cash is not gutting Sacramento. Only 15% of all sales were cash in the region last year. Cash used to be about 30% during the “Blackstone” days.

B) Nearly 20% of sales in the region last year were FHA, which tells us first-time buyers are winning in this market – not just loaded Bay Area residents. 

C) There are 20,000 new residents every year from the Bay Area, but there are only about 28,000 single family detached home sales in Sacramento per year. This tells us not everyone who moves here is actually buying. Of course if Bay Area buyers are picking up the slack of locals not buying, then that’s another story. If anyone has data to suggest that is the case, do share. For now though let’s admit not everyone who moves here is getting a mortgage.

D) I might be more bullish on thinking the Bay Area is dominating the purchase market, but having more than twenty thousands residents migrate to live in Sacramento is definitely putting pressure on rents. According to Yardis Matrix, rents are up 8.5% this year, and that translates to renters paying an average of $105 more each month for rent (or $1,260 more over the course of the entire year). Yikes.

4) NOT FAKE NEWS: Rising rents are heating up the 2-4 unit market.

TRUTH: An investor told me the other day, “Sacramento’s hot rental market is now the worst kept secret in the nation”. Such a headline quote (thanks Eliot). He is 100% correct because news of rising rents has seemed to permeate the marketplace lately. For years after the housing collapse prices seemed more subdued, but lately it’s been eye-opening to see how much demand there is for the 2-4 unit market. Yet many units hitting the market actually have below-market rents because the rents have not been raised in many years. This is why most of the time it seems like I cannot fully trust rental data in MLS because it reflects older rental contracts from years ago rather than the market today.

What the? There are also some lofty sales that leave us asking, “What the? It sold for how much?” I thought this recently when seeing a triplex sell for 1.8M in Midtown and a 4-plex at $850,000 in Curtis Park. A “lone-ranger” outlier sale might reflect the “hot” market in some senses, though remember a high sale could also be a trophy property, have a subdividable lot, or maybe a buyer overpaid in light of needing to do a 1031-exchange.

I hope this was helpful or interesting.

Questions: What do you think of the “fake” real estate news above? How much of an impact are Bay Area buyers really making? What are you seeing in the rental market? Did I miss something?

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Excess and surplus land (and why the difference matters)

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Is it excess or surplus land? And why does it even matter? Let’s talk about that today while looking at a real life example of a lot that is currently being divided.

Excess Land: This is when the lot is larger in size and the extra land (or excess) can be sold separately from the existing lot. In other words, a portion of the lot can be broken off from the rest, sold separately, and have a different highest and best use from the rest of the lot.

excess-land-sacramento-appraisal-blog

Surplus Land: This is when the lot is larger in size and the extra land (or surplus) cannot be sold off separately. This means the “surplus” doesn’t have a separate highest and best use. The larger size is simply extra land that still might have some value, but it can’t be used for a separate purpose from the rest of the lot.

surplus-land-sacramento-appraisal-blog

Why does this matter?

1) Real Estate Jeopardy: Next time you’re on Jeopardy you’re going to sound like an expert when the category is land.

2) Assuming Value: It’s easy to assume a larger lot is always more valuable, but we have to ask if we’re dealing with surplus or excess land because it could make a difference in the value. At times we see a large lot size and get distracted like we’ve seen a bright shiny object. But can the land be divided? What can it be used for? Does the parcel shape help the lot be useful for buyers? And what have comps with larger lot sizes actually sold for too? 

3) The Bottom Line: Here’s the big deal. A larger lot that can be divided might be worth far more than a larger lot that cannot be divided (thanks Captain Obvious). For instance, the lot in the example above is located in the Curtis Park neighborhood and the extra space in the backyard is considered excess land because it CAN be divided and have a separate highest and best use. This backyard is currently being split by Keith Klassen in order to build two new homes. Anyway, this reminds us how important it is to talk with the local planning department to see what possibilities exist for extra space on a lot. We might see something big and assume it can be divided, but can it really? What does zoning allow? Moreover, is it realistic for the property to be divided right now? Remember, just because a lot can be divided doesn’t necessarily mean its going to happen in the current market. For instance, imagine values are tanking and new construction has stopped in the area. In a market like that any excess land might not command much of a value premium. But in a market where values are up and construction is happening, there is a higher probability of the lot being worth far more because it might be split.

keith-klassen-new-construction-in-curtis-park-sacramento

I hope this was helpful. There are many other things we could discuss here, so let’s kick around some ideas in the comments.

Questions: Anything else to add? Any stories to share? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.

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The myth of the one-mile radius in appraisals

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It’s often believed that appraisers need to use comparable sales only within a one-mile radius. But that’s not really accurate or a good methodology for valuing a property either. Appraisers should really use competitive sales located in the neighborhood or a similar neighborhood – regardless of whether they are located within one mile or not. Besides, has there ever been a neighborhood in the shape of a one-mile radius anyway? That would be interesting.

The Danger of a One-Mile Radius: Take the following image for example in the northern portion of Oak Park in the Sacramento area. If I were to search for comparable sales within a one-mile radius of the red dot below, a return of sales from all sorts of neighborhoods would come back. Portions of Med Center, Elmhurst, Curtis Park, West Tahoe Park, Midtown and East Sacramento really don’t compare well with the location of the house (red dot) despite being within one mile. This example shows very clearly how inaccurate it can be to simply use a radius to measure a real estate market.

One Mile Radius for Comps - Sacramento Appraiser

Lender’s One-Mile Guideline: It’s true that most lenders have guidelines wanting appraisers to stay within a one-mile radius, but there is actually no official “one-mile rule” from Fannie Mae that appraisers have to follow. Of course, in a tract neighborhood with ample sales, there probably isn’t a good reason to use comps outside of one mile anyway, so that’s why lenders issue their own guidelines to say appraisers need to stay within one mile. But the appraiser can definitely travel outside of one mile if need be. Check out the video below (or here) on Fannie Mae’s guidelines for distance in appraisal reports:

Which comps should the appraiser use? Ultimately appraisers should utilize sales in competitive neighborhoods – whether those are inside or outside of a one-mile radius. Where would a typical buyer consider making a purchase instead of the subject property? That’s a critical question to ask when defining the boundaries of a neighborhood. In the case above, it would be highly important to stay as close as possible to the red dot in the photo, and not cross the freeway either because a typical buyer looking in Oak Park would not simultaneously be looking in Curtis Park, Elmhurst or other portions of Tahoe Park due to price differences. By the way, New York appraiser Jonathan Miller has an outstanding post entitled “What is a Comp?”

Why does this matter?

  1. Appraisers: Appraisers need to select the best comps in their reports.
  2. Not Bound: It’s important for everyone to know that unique properties, major fixers, historic homes, rural homes and oddballs are not bound by a one-mile radius.
  3. Resale Value: Sellers and investors need to understand the neighborhood and how appraisers are going to view the subject neighborhood too in order to gauge resale value. Be careful not to base your price on a superior tract nearby outside of your neighborhood boundaries. Check out a post on the importance of knowing your neighborhood boundaries.
  4. Giving Comps to Appraisers: When agents give “comps” to appraisers while at an inspection, it’s best to give properties that are actually located in the same neighborhood or at least deemed competitive in a similar neighborhood (as opposed to nearby sales that meet a certain price level). Moreover, the “comp” should really be similar enough that the buyer would have theoretically considered it as a replacement instead of the subject property. I had an agent give me “comps” recently and one sale was located 7 miles away from the subject property. While the subject property is a bit on the unique side in a standard subdivision, the sale 7 miles away was in a totally different and superior market – and therefore not similar at all.
  5. Zillow and Online Sites: Zillow has value for what it is, but doesn’t always understand the importance of tight neighborhood boundaries. See a previous post on Zillow and comparison to actual appraisals.

Any thoughts?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.