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El Dorado County

The housing market nobody predicted

January 12, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

Nobody predicted 2020. Who would’ve thought during a pandemic we’d see such an explosive year in real estate? The expectation was that the market would start to tank, but we saw the exact opposite. It’s not just Sacramento either because many areas of the country experienced this same dynamic. Anyway, enjoy some brand new visuals if you wish. Thanks for being here.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Here is a highlight reel to talk through some of the bigger themes this year. In short, the stats are stunning.

What stands out to you?

THE LONGER VERSION (organized by county):

1) Sacramento Region
2) Sacramento County
3) Placer County
4) El Dorado County
5) Yolo County
6) Bonus visuals

I welcome you to share some of these images on your social or in a newsletter. Please use this stuff. In case it helps, here are 5 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

1) SACRAMENTO REGION:

 

2) SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

3) PLACER COUNTY:

4) EL DORADO COUNTY:

5) YOLO COUNTY:

6) BONUS VISUALS:

Here are some extra regional graphs to show how various counties are moving together.

 

Other visuals: Not that you needed more, but check out my social media in coming days and weeks for extra visuals. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most about 2020 real estate? Any stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: annual recap of housing 2020, Appraisal, appraisal blog in sacramento, Appraiser, cash sales, El Dorado County, Greater Sacramento appraisal blog, Housing market 2020, housing trends, million dollar sales, Placer County, price growth, real estate recap, rising prices, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, Sacramento County, sacramento regional housing market, Yolo County

Real estate drama (and a market update)

December 15, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 50 Comments

I’m not into The Bachelorette or The Real Housewives. It’s just not my thing. But I love me some real estate drama. I’m not talking about HGTV, but the housing market. I know that elevates my nerd status, but I’m hyper focused on fresh stats, ups and downs, and things that make the market move.

(scroll down for a big market update instead)

AN EXCEL FILE FOR CHRISTMAS? Today I want to share some new neighborhood visuals and I’d like to give you an Excel template so you can quickly make these images for neighborhoods in your area. Does that interest you? If I have consensus I’ll post a template with instructions next week.

DRAMA IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD: What can you tell me about this neighborhood (East Sac)? What stands out to you about the relationship between price and square footage, lot size, and bedroom count? I made these images in a couple of minutes with the template I mentioned.

What do you think? Do you like any of these images? Any ideas for something else to show in a quick template like this? Let me know.

UNCLE RYAN’S LAME GIFT: I know it’s odd to wrap an Excel file for Christmas, but let me know if this would be relevant. You can use it for studying neighborhoods, explaining the market to clients, or for newsletters / social media. If there’s enough interest I’ll make a video tutorial. You don’t need to be an Excel guru either. This is something anyone can do with a little effort.

FOX 40 INTERVIEW: By the way, I did a 15-minute live segment last week on Fox 40. We talked about Sacramento being poised to have the strongest market in the country next year according to Realtor.com. Watch here if you wish.

Thanks so much for being here.

Any thoughts?

———————- (skim or digest slowly) ———————–

BIG MARKET UPDATE

For those interested, here’s a big Sacramento market update:

MARKET SUMMARY: In short, we’ve been seeing the drama of a spring real estate season during the fall months. The housing market has been on steroids and the slower fall season we normally have just didn’t happen. Well, technically we are seeing some stats start to slow down as prices have gone sideways lately and we’re seeing fewer sales like we normally do in November and December. But here’s the thing. The “slower” stats are still so elevated from where they should be that it just doesn’t feel slow at all.

HIGHLIGHT REEL:

  • Half of all sales sold in seven days or fewer last month
  • For six months in a row sales volume has outpaced last year
  • We only have three weeks of supply (that’s crazy low)
  • We have the lowest monthly inventory in 15-20 years (at least)
  • Buyers made twice as many offers last month compared to last year
  • The number of listings has been chopped in half
  • Price metrics are up about 12-14% from last year
  • November 2020 regional volume is up 25% from November 2019
  • 63% of all sales had multiple offers last month
  • There were 53.6% more multiple offers compared to last year
  • Each sale last month had an average of 3.22 offers
  • Sales volume is up about 2% over the past 12 months
  • There were 106% more million dollar sales from July to November

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS:

You are welcome to use these in newsletters and social media with proper attribution. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

SACRAMENTO REGION:

  

 

 

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Other visuals: I have lots of other graphs. Check out my social media in coming days and weeks. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing in the market right now? Any stories to share? Are you interested in my Excel template? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: aggressive real estate market, Appraisal, Appraiser, California, East Sac, East Sacramento, El Dorado County, Excel, Greater Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog, House Appraisal, housing shortage, how to graph, low inventory, Placer County, Real Estate Market, rising prices, sacramento housing trends, trend graphs

Six things to remember about crazy home price growth

October 14, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 18 Comments

Price growth has been unreal lately in many parts of the country, but here are some things to keep in mind before pricing for the moon…

Six things to keep in mind:

1) County stats don’t translate perfectly: It’s easy to look at county or zip code stats and think, “Dude, my home is worth 14% more now because the median price is up by 14%.” But the market isn’t that rigid where price growth for a larger area applies equally to every parcel.

2) Picking and choosing: If we’re not careful we can pick and choose stats that benefit us the most. For instance, someone in Placer County this month could be tempted to focus on the region at 14% instead of Placer data at 6.4%. My advice? Look at all the stats instead of fixating on glowing numbers.

3) Larger homes are padding the stats: During these past few months we’ve seen buyers focus on noticeably larger homes, so it’s important to take this into consideration when interpreting huge price growth. At the least larger homes represent some of the heightened price growth lately.

4) Not every property type has the same trend: The truth is not every type of property is going to be showing the same price growth. Thus price trends could be different for vacant land, entry-level homes, the million dollar market, attached homes, 55+ communities, 2-4 units, commercial units, etc…

5) Hot Pockets: The real estate market is like a Hot Pocket taken out of the microwave a tad too early. Some portions are blazing hot while others are only warm or frozen. Like a Hot Pocket, we can say the real estate market is “hot” overall, but it’s definitely not the same temperature in every neighborhood or price range. For instance, the City of Davis seems to have very subdued price growth over the past couple of years, but East Sacramento has been a far different story with large increases. My advice? Price according to similar homes that are getting into contract rather than projecting zip code or county stats on a property.

6) It’s NOT all about prices: The question I get asked the most is, “What are prices doing?” I get it, but if we want to understand a real estate market it’s important to look to other metrics too like inventory, sales volume, days on market, SP/OLP ratio, etc.. Besides, sales are like historical artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like 30 to 60 days ago when these homes got into contract. If anything sales tell us more about the past than the present. If we want to understand the market right now it’s critical to see what’s happening with the listings and pendings (which will be future sales in about 30 to 60 days).

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

NEW VIDEO TUTORIAL: I made a graph last week to show the seasonal market and lots of people responded saying they’d like a tutorial. Here it is.

Thanks so much for reading my post today.

Any thoughts?

———————- (skim or digest slowly) ———————–

MARKET SUMMARY: For anyone interested, here are some tidbits for social media, newsletters, or in case you want to win the real estate category on Jeopardy.

– We have 20 days of housing supply in the region

– There were 41% more multiple offers this September compared to last year

– Monthly inventory is lower than it’s been in 15+ years

– There are 53% fewer listings in the region right now (not a typo)

– Sac, Placer, Yolo, and El Dorado counties all have less than one month of housing supply. Each respective county is lower than it’s been in 15+ years.

– We saw the highest number of sales for September in Sacramento County in 11 years (since 2009).

– The million dollar market has grown this year in the region. 3.3% of homes have been above one million in 2020 compared to 2.5% last year.

– It took 9 fewer days to sell this September in the region compared to last year at the same time.

– Demand has increased dramatically lately from local buyers as well as Bay Area buyers. This is part of why we’ve seen heightened pending contracts, higher prices, lower inventory, more multiple offers…

– Normally the market at this time of year would be cooling more substantially by now, but the spring buying season has been sort of extended. Yet before saying it’s simply buyers making up for the sluggish pandemic market in the spring, let’s not ignore the power of low mortgage rates. It’s no coincidence we’re seeing a hyper-competitive market over the past 90 days as mortgage rates have gone below 3%.

– In the background it looks like sales volume and pending contracts are starting to flatten. I talked about this last week. Normally during the fall season we see a dip in all metrics. That really hasn’t been the case so far, but seeing volume flatten could lead to other metrics dipping at some point.

– So far this fall season reminds me of 2012 where the market was incredibly aggressive. Prices kept going up that fall, yet there was a hint of a normal seasonal trend too as there was a dip in sales volume. We’ll see what this fall holds. For now it’s anything but cold.

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS:

You are welcome to use these in newsletters and social media with proper attribution. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

SACRAMENTO REGION:

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing out there right now? Anything else to add about prices?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: El Dorado County, high demand, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, housing shortage, increasing sales volume, Placer County, regional housing trends, rising prices, Sacramento County, sacramento region housing market, trend graphs

The aggressive & slowing housing market

October 6, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 25 Comments

Insane. Crazy. Irrational. The housing market has been described this way in many places around the country lately. But in the midst of freakishly high demand there is still a seasonal rhythm to see in the background. Let’s talk about that.

Today’s post seems long, but it’s mostly images.

BIG POINT: Understanding what the market normally does throughout the year helps us give good advice, make plans, do a better job with valuations, and spot when something abnormal is happening.

WHAT DOES THE MARKET DO DURING THE YEAR?

Seven years in one graph? Yep. This visual looks at the average of seven years worth of sales for each month, so even though there is just one line we end up with a solid visual of how the market behaves throughout the year. This is so important because being a real estate expert involves lots of things, but one big factor is understanding how the market moves. 

Tutorial: I’m actually game to do a video tutorial on how to make this visual. If I get a number of people interested I’d be glad to do that. Let me know.

Here is 2020 showing an abnormal trend…

UPDATE: I think some people are caught on my title instead of what I am communicating in the body of this post. Look, the market is not soft. Prices have continued to rise and we’re having an abnormal fall season so far in many ways. Frankly, this fall is far more aggressive than it should be for the time of year. Yet sales volume is starting to flatten too, which is a sign of some slowing. That’s what the stats and visuals are indicating right now, so that’s the story we ought to understand and tell. When saying this though I think some people hear, “The market is dull,” but that’s not what I am communicating. The market is always changing and doing different things. Why can we not clearly and confidently say, “The market is white hot, but we’re also seeing sales volume slow down”?

NOT THE SAME:

Many markets have a similar pattern to the one above, but others look totally different because of weather, being a vacation destination, etc…

MARKET UPDATE VIDEO: Here are a few things on my mind right now.

ANOTHER VISUAL:

Here’s a different way to look at sales volume. Check out this year in black compared to previous years. What is volume doing?

THE TAKEAWAY:

The black line shows sales volume looks like it hit its peak for the year a couple months ago, so even though we are calling this market white hot, we can still see a slowing trend creeping in the background. This doesn’t mean the market is dull (I didn’t say that). In short, this year we’re beginning to see a change in volume, but overall the fall season hasn’t been normal because by now prices are usually cooling off and it should be taking longer to sell rather than fewer days.

Okay, two more counties…

PLACER COUNTY & EL DORADO COUNTY

Check out the rhythm of the market in these two counties. This is a really good picture for how the market tends to behave through the year.

Now check out the black line. Do you see the increase lately? Like I said a few weeks back we’ve seen a huge influx of buyers in Placer & El Dorado County. In other words, the black line shows an abnormal amount of buyers lately. Also, we see what looks like a seasonal slowing of volume as the black line looks to be curving down.

Anyway, I hope this was helpful or interesting.

Thank you again for all of your support in my life these past months. I am fully back to work and doing my best to pace myself.

Questions: Do you think this fall we’re going to see a big slowing or barely any slowing? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Bay Area buyers, becoming a real estate expert, competitive fall season, El Dorado County, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, pandemic market, pandemic real estate trends, Placer County, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, Sacramento County, sacramento regional appraisal blog, sales volume, seasonal market in Sacramento, trend graphs

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  • My new sewer line adds huge value, right?
  • The housing market nobody predicted
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