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El Dorado County

Slumping volume & rising inventory

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Volume is down and inventory is up. Is that a problem? It sounds like a question for a high school Economics class, but here we are talking. Today I want to kick around two quick thoughts and then dive deeply into trends. I hope this helps – whether you’re local or not. Anything to add?

Here are the two big ideas to talk through right now.

This could be a problem: If sales volume continues to slump and inventory rises without buyers absorbing new listings, it could be a sign the market is changing in a big way. No matter how we look at it sales volume has been down lately in Sacramento. This was the weakest September since 2007 as volume was 14% lower than last year, and quarterly volume was down about 6% too. But keep in mind overall the year as a whole has actually seen strong volume, so it’s not like sales have fallen off the face of the earth (but it’s a concern we’re seeing the numbers change over the past few months). Housing inventory is also up and we haven’t seen it this high since 2014.

This could also be a dull fall: Despite the numbers seeming gloomy right now, they’re actually really consistent with what the market showed in 2014 when we had an extremely dull fall season. In fact, quarterly volume that year was down 6% and September volume was weak too. Does that sound familiar? Also, we have a nearly identical level of inventory right now compared to then too. I don’t say this to sugar coat any red flags in the market, but only to give pause and say what we’re seeing right now could simply be a very dull fall season.

We need more time: The truth is we need time to see how the market will pan out. For now we live in the tension of not knowing the future and interpreting trends for the present. My advice? Watch closely, be careful of hyped headlines, and be sure to take a wider view of the market too (let’s not forget 2014).

I hope that was helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Prices actually went up last month. What the? Yes, the market is softening, but prices saw an uptick from August to September. That might seem confusing since we’re talking about the market cooling, but it highlights exactly what I’ve been talking about lately in that you don’t often see a market changing by looking at prices. You see change first in the listings and sales volume – and then prices eventually. This is exactly what’s happening right now. 

Normal fall stuff: Last month it took longer to sell, the number of listings increased, and we saw a dip in sales volume. This is what we’d expect to see at this time of year, though the dip in volume was definitely sharp, which is something we’ll watch over time to see if it’s a byproduct of a dull fall or the start of a bigger trend. Beyond volume being down 6% this quarter, all the metrics look fairly normal for the fall. Well, they look normal for a dull fall season, that is.

Momentum slowing: Beyond a seasonal slowing we’re also seeing momentum slowing. I explain it here in a presentation I gave yesterday.

Interest rates rising: One of the reasons why we’re seeing volume slough could be due to interest rates rising. Earlier in the year it seemed buyers ran to the market in light of news of rising rates, but right now it doesn’t seem like buyers have their running shoes on any longer.

Buyers have more power, but not all power: The market is shifting to favor buyers, though sellers still have lots of power. Some buyers hear about a softening market and think they can make lowball offers, but that’s just not realistic. For instance, last month 40% of all sales had multiple offers in the region. That tells us the market isn’t dead despite softening. Buyers, did you hear that? Enjoy your newfound power, but you still have to bring strong reasonable offers.

Listings may have peaked: Overall housing inventory is up as I mentioned above, but it looks like the number of listings is starting to crest for the year. I’ve been watching listings closely over the past few weeks and it seems like they maybe peaked. We’ll know for sure in a month or so. This is exactly what we’d expect to see happen around this time of year, but it maybe seems like more welcome news right now. Let’s keep watching to know for sure.

Being technical about weak volume and inventory: Here’s the thing, we saw a very weak sales volume in September, and it ended up really impacting inventory levels. In fact, when looking at graphs the trend line shot up dramatically last month (see below). But technically what happened was the sales that normally would’ve sold were basically piled on to the number of listings instead, and that’s making the housing supply figure look much more dramatic. Ultimately the number of listings isn’t all that abnormal for the time of year, though if sales continue to dry up over time, then it becomes a much bigger deal to have even this number of “normal” listings.

Pricing lower this fall: Right now at the least it looks like we’re poised to have a dull fall like we had in 2014. These past couple of fall seasons the market simply felt a little more flat, but this year I expect we’ll see a more pronounced price difference between sales in the spring and the fall. Remember, if listings aren’t attracting offers, it’s because the market is no longer biting at that level. What is similar and getting into contract? That’s the big question, and when a fall season is more dull it’s important to be realistic about the need to potentially price lower. In other words, it’s probably not going to be enough to price a property 1% below the height of spring and expect a flood of buyers. Remember, it doesn’t matter what other listings are priced at if they’re not selling. The only thing that matters is what is actually getting into contract. That’s where we see the market.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 63 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from August to September?

3) What’s happening with inventory?

4) What’s happening with sales volume?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • September volume down 14%
  • 2018 volume down 1% (January to September)
  • Annual volume down 2% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • September volume down 16%
  • 2018 volume down 1.4% (January to September)
  • Annual volume down 1.8% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • September volume down 19%
  • 2018 volume down 3% (January to September)
  • Annual volume down 3% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 63 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What do you see happening with volume and inventory right now? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take.

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Peak prices & “bubble” conversations

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We’re about to have more real estate “bubble” conversations. Why? Because prices are very close to where they were at the previous peak of the market. Here’s a few things that come to mind when these conversations come up. Then for those interested I have a big monthly market update. Anything to add?

Higher prices fuel conversation: As prices rise, it inflames conversation about a real estate “bubble”. Media outlets cover this topic of course, but it’s also on the mind of the public.

Stats are VERY close to the peak: Markets throughout the country are different, but in Sacramento most price metrics are getting very close to the peak from 2005. In fact, the average sales price in the Sacramento region is now the SAME as it was back then.

No formula: As a friendly reminder, there is no “bubble” formula that says the market will plummet if we get back to prices from 10+ years ago.

Hello inventory: As news of high prices gets out there, some sellers will put their homes on the market thinking we are at the top. So let’s watch inventory very closely in coming time.

Normal seasonal slowing: Right now the market is slowing, and some are saying, “It’s starting to turn. Pop. The Bubble is happening!!!” Here’s the thing though. Markets tend to have a seasonal cycle where things are hot and then they cool off. When the market begins to soften each year we tend to hear a little more doom & gloom because sometimes we confuse a seasonal slowing with the market tanking. At the moment the stats in Sacramento look normal for the season and don’t indicate the market has made a big turn down, so I’ll keep saying that unless I have a reason not to. Make sense?

Less room: There is less room for prices to increase unless the job market and wage growth really start to move. So it seems logical for the market to slow down. Yet there are many dynamics that make prices move, and nobody has a crystal ball to say exactly what prices will do in the future.

Don’t forget Inflation: This might sound anal, but let’s get technical about comparing older prices with today’s prices. We’ve had thirteen years of inflation since 2005, and that means it’s gotten more expensive to buy the same goods today than it was in the past. For instance, the peak of the market in Sacramento saw a median price at $395,000 in 2005, but when adjusting that figure for inflation with an inflation calculator, a price at $395,000 in 2005 would technically have the same purchasing power of $511,000 today. So as today’s median price approaches $395,000, we have to realize it’s really not the same $395,000 as it was in 2005 because of how the value of the dollar has changed over time.

But the market doesn’t care about inflation: Okay, let me now throw a curveball. It’s important to understand how inflation works for the sake of comparing older stats, but I don’t think most buyers and sellers actually care about inflation. They don’t say, “Sweet, prices today look like they’re the same as 2005, but technically they’re lower because of inflation.” No, people tend to see prices and say, “Holy heck, we’re back to the peak.” I’m not dismissing the need to understand how inflation works, but only being real about how the bulk of buyers and sellers tend to think. Besides, it doesn’t matter how close we are to the previous peak anyway because there is no formula that says the market will “pop” at that level.

Preaching doom: Some preach doom & gloom, and that’s fine. My advice though? Be realistic about your ability to predict the future. Some have been making annual real estate predictions about how the market is about to collapse, and I’m hearing many say the big change is now coming later this year or in 2019. The problem is when these predictions don’t come true the “prophecies” simply get pushed back another year. The irony is if a person keeps making the same prediction every year, at some point that person could be right.

Seeing only red flags: It’s getting less affordable. The economy isn’t that great. Interest rates are rising. Home prices have outpaced wage growth. Lenders are getting more creative with financing. These are red flags for sure. But let’s remember just because unhealthy elements exist in a market does not mean it’s starting to crash. My advice? Be honest about the red flags, but let actual stats inform what you say and think about the market. Keep in mind many articles in coming time are going to preach doom, but take a step back from the articles and look to the stats. What do the stats say? And what is the mood among buyers and sellers in the market? That’s the only thing that matters. 

Open letter to worried buyers: Last year I wrote an open letter to buyers worried about another housing bubble. I have some practical advice and tips in there in case it’s relevant.

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Anything to add?

-—-—- Big monthly market update (long on purpose) ———–

We saw what we would expect to see last month. It felt like a normal May. Well, actually it was the strongest May of sales volume since 2013. Prices ticked up again, it took three less days to sell, and inventory remained sparse. Overall the stats are glowing, but it’s important to recognize the market is starting to slow for the season. We are seeing way more listings hitting the market, and this is transferring some power from sellers to buyers. We are also seeing more price reductions. In a few months we will likely see this slowness in the stats, but for now check out some glowing numbers below.

The previous “bubble” vs now:

1) Housing inventory: Since late last year housing inventory has begun to increase subtly. Right now we have 1.5 months of housing supply whereas one year ago we had 1.26 months of supply. Some might interpret this to mean the market has begun to collapse and really change directions, but this is still a very anemic level of housing supply, and the market has been able to handle this change easily because of strong demand. For reference, when the market collapsed in 2005 inventory literally doubled in 90 days from the summer to the fall. That’s a far different story than what we’ve seen so far this year with a minor uptick in inventory over the past two quarters. 

2) Sales volume: If we did have a “bubble” and it burst, I would expect to see more listings hit the market and most likely a drop in sales volume. In 2005 the market changed and properties simply stopped selling as you can see below. In one year sales volume literally dropped by 43%. Yikes!! In contrast, right now sales volume has been very steady. Let’s keep an eye on sales volume and inventory though because both metrics might help us gauge if the market really is changing. Remember though, before we see a change in sales, we’ll hear of a change in the mood of buyers and sellers. Thus the trend always happens in the listings first before we start to see it in the sales. That’s why the word on the street is so important in real estate (agents, please keep emailing me to let me know what you are seeing out there).

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 61 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 61 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you hearing buyers and sellers saying about the market? Do you think the market has turned or are we seeing a seasonal slowness? I’d love to hear your take.

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Making the numbers say what we want (and a Sacramento market update)

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We can make numbers say whatever we want. We see this all the time in the media, politics, and even in real estate. Sometimes it’s a matter of intentionally fudging the numbers, but other times we might be honest about sharing something but actually still get it totally wrong. Today I want to highlight a real life example how we can end up saying something totally different about the market depending on the numbers we’re looking at. Whether you’re local or not, I hope you can take something away from this post. Then for those interested we’ll dive into a big Sacramento market update. Any thoughts? I’d love to hear your take.

Example 1: Sales price to list price ratio:

sold-vs-list-price-percentage-in-sacramento-county

The sales vs. list price percentage is the ratio between the sales price and whatever the most recent list price was before a property got into contract. For example, imagine a property listed at $100,000, was reduced to $98,000, and then went into contract at $98,000. The sales to list price would be 100% (98/98). If we look at this metric alone and see a county average of 100%, it looks like properties are selling for whatever they’re listed for. Woohoo, the market is hot!!!

Example 2: Sales price to ORIGINAL list price ratio:

sales-price-to-original-list-price-in-sacramento-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

The sales to original list price ratio is the relationship between the original list price and the final sales price. For example, imagine a property listed at $100,000 but was reduced to $98,000, and then went into contract at $96,000. The sales to list price ratio would be 96% (96/100). This metric takes into account ALL price reductions, and in my mind tells a more fuller story of the market.

KEY QUESTION: Which one above does your CMA report?

BIG POINT: If we look at the sales price to list price ratio the market seems like it’s NOT softening. But if we take a deeper look at the sales price to ORIGINAL list price ratio, we see properties on average sold for 4% less than their original list price last month. This is definitely a more telling stat because it reminds us how many properties have been overpriced lately. Remember, there were nearly 1800 sales last month, so an average 4% decline is a big stat. But it’s easy to miss that if we don’t know what to look for and end up reporting the first stat above.

—-—–—– And here’s my big monthly market update  ———–—–

big-monthly-market-update-post-sacramento-appraisal-blog-image-purchased-from-123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: The market feels like it should at this time of year. It’s taking slightly longer to sell than it was a couple of months ago, the sales to original list price ratio has been declining, and prices are softening as the hot summer fades away. This doesn’t mean the market is dull at every price range though. In fact, the bottom of the market under $300,000 is definitely more aggressive than properties above $500,000. Right now housing inventory is 11% lower than it was the same time last year and a whopping 35% lower than it was in 2014. If you remember, two years ago the market felt extremely dull and there were about 400 price reductions every day when logging in to MLS (this year price reductions are hovering around 200 tops every day (that’s for the entire MLS coverage area)). This reminds us some fall markets are softer than others. Sales volume this year has been about the same as it was last year, though it’s important to note FHA is down 6% and cash is down over 8% so far. Celebrity house flipping seminars are coming to town frequently in Sacramento, but keep in mind only 2% of all sales in the region last month were bank-owned, which reminds us low-priced fixer deals on MLS are pretty much a thing of the past. Lastly, there has been lots of talk about the market having shifted or beginning a downturn, but right now the stats look to be showing a normal seasonal slowing. We often hear things like, “the market is starting to tank”, but unless we see a real change in the stats or hear something more definitive from the real estate community about values declining, let’s be in tune with the slowing seasonal market. In case it’s useful, here is a video tutorial I did a couple of weeks ago to walk through the slowing season and what it looked like in 2005 also.

Sacramento County:

  1. The median price is 102% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. Sales volume was up 8.5% this August compared to August 2015.
  3. There were only 4 sales under $100K last month (single family detached).
  4. Sales volume is up about 4% this year compared to last year.
  5. Housing inventory is 11% lower than the same time last year (only 1.57 months of inventory).
  6. FHA volume is down about 6% this year compared to 2015 (though they were 26% of all sales last month).
  7. Cash sales were only 14% of all sales last month.
  8. It took an average of 26 days to sell a home last month, which is 1 day less than the previous month (and 8 less days compared to last year).
  9. REOs were only 3% of all sales last month and short sales were 2.8%.
  10. The median price increased by 1% from last month, is down 3% from two months ago, and is up nearly 12% from last year at the same time.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

inventory-in-sacramento-county-since-2013-part-2-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

median-price-context-in-sacramento-county

median-price-since-2013-in-sacramento-county

price-metrics-since-2015-in-sacramento-county-look-at-all

inventory-august-2016-by-home-appraiser-blog

cdom-in-sacramento-county-by-sacramento-regional-appraisal-blog

sales-volume-in-sacramento-county-since-2012

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. The median price is 98.5% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. It took the same time to sell last month compared to the previous month (but 8 less days compared to August 2015).
  3. Sales volume is about the same as it was last year at the same time (very slightly more this year so far)
  4. Cash sales were 15% of all sales last month.
  5. Cash sales volume is 6.4% lower this year than last year.
  6. FHA sales were 22% of all sales last month.
  7. FHA sales volume is down nearly 7% this year so far.
  8. There is 1.77 months of housing supply in the region right now, which is over 13% lower than the same time last year.
  9. The median price increased last month, but it’s down from two months ago. The median price is up nearly 9% from last year at the same time. The average sales price and average price per sq ft are both up about 8% from last year too.
  10. REOs were only 2% of all sales last month and short sales were the same.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

median-price-sacramento-placer-yolo-el-dorado-county

regional-inventory-by-sacramento-regional-appraisal-blog

sacramento-region-volume-fha-and-conventional-by-appraiser-blog

days-on-market-in-placer-sac-el-dorado-yolo-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

number-of-listings-in-sacramento-regional-market

interest-rates-inventory-median-price-in-sacramento-regional-market-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog-market

number-of-listings-in-placer-yolo-el-dorado-sacramento-by-home-appraiser-blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. Today’s median price is 70% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. It took 4 more days to sell a house last month than the previous month (but 6 less days than last year at the same time).
  3. Sales volume was down less than 1% in August 2016 compared to last August and is down slightly for the year about 3%.
  4. Both FHA sales were 16% and cash sales were 19% of all sales last month.
  5. There is 2.05 months of housing supply in Placer County right now, which is down nearly 13% from the same time last year.
  6. The median price declined about 1% from the previous month, but for a better context it’s up 7% from last year at the same time.
  7. The average price per sq ft was $214 last month (was $202 last year at the same time).
  8. The average sales price was $472K last month (up about 4% from last year).
  9. Bank owned sales were only 1% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were 2% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

placer-county-median-price-since-2014-part-2-by-home-appraiser-blog

placer-county-housing-inventory-by-home-appraiser-blog

months-of-housing-inventory-in-placer-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

number-of-listings-in-placer-county-2016

days-on-market-in-placer-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

placer-county-sales-volume-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

how-to-think-like-an-appraiser-class-by-ryan-lundquistAppraisal Class I’m teaching: On September 29 from 9am-12pm I’m doing my favorite class at SAR called HOW TO THINK LIKE AN APPRAISER. This is a tremendous time where we’ll talk about seeing properties like an appraiser does. We’ll look at comp selection, using price per sq ft properly, and so many issues. My goal is to help you walk away glad you came and full of actionable ideas for business. Register here.

Question: Did I miss anything? Any other market insight you’d like to add? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

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