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Appraisal waivers & the foreclosure wave

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I have two things on my mind today. Yesterday I had a conversation about appraisal waivers and “hybrid” appraisals, so I wanted to share my take. Then I have some new graphs to help tell the story of the foreclosure crisis.

APPRAISAL WAIVERS & “HYBRID” APPRAISALS:

Here’s a Q&A with with Scott Short on appraisal waivers and “hybrid” appraisals. I get things changing for appraisers in light of big data, but diminishing the role appraisers play seems like a bad idea for the housing market. Watch here. If you want to just hear the “hybrid” part, it’s at 7:12.

By the way, a local appraiser named Barry Cleverdon had an accident a few weeks ago and is currently in a coma. Here is Barry’s GoFundMe.

THE FORECLOSURE CRISIS:

1) Healing: The foreclosure rate in the United States is way down. I would guess most markets have essentially healed. In Sacramento County ten years ago 84% of sales were distressed and now that number is less than 2% when considering both short sales and bank-owned sales (REOs).

2) Not the same in every neighborhood: When it comes to distressed sales, some areas and price ranges did better than others as you can see below. This reminds us the market doesn’t experience the same exact trend everywhere.

3) The power of equity: Areas with more equity and higher prices tended to fare better with the number of distressed sales. I know that’s what we’d expect to see, but it’s interesting to actually see it. It’s amazing how equity (and probably better jobs) can create opportunity and even help people weather a storm.

4) The promise of a new wave: Many have promised a new wave of foreclosures, but we just haven’t seen it. I hear things like, “Dude, there are so many Notice of Defaults right now.” That may be true, but not all of these NODs end up hitting the market. Or if they do go into foreclosure they may likely be sold on the court steps before MLS.

Two weeks ago I asked friends on LinkedIn which areas they wanted to see, and that’s how this post was born. I didn’t get to everywhere, but I got to most areas.

MAKE GRAPHS LIKE THIS: If you want to know how to make a graph like this, here’s a tutorial for how to put a few different layers of data on one graph.

BLOG BASH: Just a reminder my wife and I are hosting a party at Yolo Brewing on Saturday March 2nd. It’s an excuse to get together and you’re invited. It’s okay if we’ve never met too. I’ll be buying the first 100 beers. Details here.

Questions: What do you think of appraisal waivers and “hybrid” appraisals? What stands out to you most in the images above?

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Being neutral, price per square foot, and the Governor’s new digs

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I have a few things on my mind. Let’s talk about me being asked to recruit for a brokerage (really), price per sq ft, and the Governor’s new digs.

1) WHY I SAID “NO”:

A brokerage recently asked me if I would help them recruit agents. The idea was I could use my influence to attract agents to a certain brand and then get a commission for each person I recruited.

I said NO, and my answer will always be NO. I probably don’t even need to mention this, but I want to communicate clearly. As an appraiser I won’t take sides. I’m neutral in my work, but my independence also extends in the way I interact with the real estate community. This is why you’ll see me speaking in many different places and real estate offices. I’m here to educate, not advocate. The truth is if I said yes I would’ve instantly destroyed my credibility.

2) PRICE PER SQ FT:

Here’s a look at price per sq ft trends in a few local areas. I plan to share more graphs like this throughout the year if people like them. Does anyone want to see a video tutorial for how to make these? Let me know. What do you see?

Two Takeaways:

1) RANGE: There’s always a price per sq ft range, which means there’s never just one price per sq ft figure that applies to every property in a neighborhood. Sellers often want to hijack a price per sq ft figure from a sale down the street, but that’s one of the quickest ways to overprice. My advice? Pay attention to price per sq ft, but most of all ask yourself what the comps are selling for. That’s exactly what appraisers are going to do.

2) OUTLIERS: There are clear outliers. As an FYI, usually the highest price per sq ft figures end up representing the smallest-sized homes or over-the-top unique properties.

3) THE GOVERNOR’S NEW DIGS: 

Gavin Newsom is the new governor of California and he just bought a $3.7M house in Fair Oaks. This price point isn’t much in many areas of the country, but it’s actually the fifth highest residential sale ever in Sacramento County. This home is said to have over 12,000 sq ft and it’s located on 8 acres. It’s near the American River, but not on the river. Now two of the top five sales in the county have a connection to a governor (the other was the mansion Ronald Reagan started to build in Carmichael in the 1970s).

Here’s a picture I took of the front gate this week, and here’s a video from a previous listing if you wish to see the home. Not too shabby, right?

Value thought: In the future we’ll have to consider whether there will be a price premium or not for this home because a governor owned the property.

CLASS I’M TEACHING: I’m teaching my favorite class at SAR called How to Think Like an Appraiser on January 31st from 9-12pm. We’ll dig deep into comps and adjustments (and have some fun). I’d love to have you come out.

I hope this was helpful or interesting.

Questions: Would you pay more if a governor previously owned the home? What do you think of my recruiting story? I’d love to hear your take.

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Revisiting goals I mentioned in January for 2013

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Let’s get real today. No appraisals, graphs or market trends. My first post this year listed out five business goals and five personal goals. So far I’m plugging away and aiming to meet all of them, though one in particular has not been going so well. If I do not do something right away, there is no way I am going to meet my goal to lose weight. In the beginning of the year I mentioned the need to drop 15 pounds (really it’s closer to 20), so now it’s time to take some action.

I posted this on Facebook two days ago:

my post on Facebook

I don’t know about you, but it seems much easier to meet goals when teaming up with others and making them public too. The response from my Facebook post was immediate and overwhelmingly positive, so there should be quite a few friends and business contacts joining up with this effort. Initially I did not want to manage another community emphasis, but I’m definitely game now that response has come through so strongly. Project 680 supports homeless students in the FCUSD, so it’s wonderful to be able to turn some fat into advocacy for local kids.

Charity Weight Loss: Does this resonate with anyone? Would you or your friends be interested to join? Maybe do this with your family, the office, church? This will begin September 1 and go through December 1, 2013. Visit the 90-Day Health Challenge on Project 680’s website.

By the way, how are your goals coming along this year so far? I’d love to hear about a goal you have already met or are close to meeting. Comments are welcome below.

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I support homeless students from “head to toe”

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I like what I do, but you’ll probably never catch me saying appraisals are my passion. What is my passion? Rooting for the underdog. That’s why I’m taking a break from real estate talk to announce Project 680’s “Head to Toe” drive for homeless students. Project 680 is a volunteer organization I help steer, and its work matters deeply to me. It’s sobering that local kids are living in some sketchy places right now and going without some of the basics – like adequate shoes and clothing. The “Head to Toe” drive is simply a response to help these students in relevant ways. It’s about the community finding a solution to a local problem.

I’ll donate $1 to Project 680 for every comment, Facebook share and tweet this post gets (up to $100). Thanks for spreading the word.

Check out a one-minute promo video below (or here) and read more about a few ways to get involved. It’s amazing what can happen when we get intentional as a community about responding to needs around us. Project 680 is looking for more people to get involved (churches, businesses, families, individuals, schools, etc…). What about you? Let’s join forces together.

Project 680

UPDATE: Thank you so much for spreading the news. This post was shared on Facebook about 30 times that I know of, tweeted 30-40 times (the button isn’t correct below) and fetched some comments too. I will cut a check for $100 at some point this week. It’s neat to see how we can share information and use social media to spread vision for a cause. Thank you everyone.

If you have any questions or Sacramento home appraisal or property tax appeal needs, let’s connect by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email (or RSS) or “like” my page on Facebook