The smell of gentrification in Oak Park

Gentrification is either a dirty word or something wonderful depending on who you ask. One of the best examples of gentrification locally is the Oak Park area of Sacramento. Let’s take a deeper look at this neighborhood that is in the process of change. I’d love to hear your take in the comments below.

Oak Park high sale

Seriously, $428,000? When telling a few locals on Twitter last week that a property on 34th Street recently sold for $428,000, the responses were mostly, “What the heck? Really? Wow!!” I know that doesn’t sound like much for certain areas of the country, but it gives pause for Oak Park because it seems symbolic of what is happening in the neighborhood as well as indicative of values that have risen dramatically in recent years.

What is gentrification? According to Merriam Webster, it is the process of renewal and rebuilding accompanying the influx of middle-class or affluent people into deteriorating areas that often displaces poorer residents.

1) Neighborhoods Have Life Cycles:

Growth: A period during which there are gains in public favor and acceptance. Demand increases.
Stability: A period of equilibrium without marked gains or losses. No real obvious change.
Decline: A period of diminishing demand and acceptance.
Renewal: A period of rejuvenation and rebirth of market demand.

2) The Good & Bad: Blight needs to be cleaned up, so it’s a good thing when that begins to happen in neighborhoods. However, it’s a bad thing when native residents are displaced because they can no longer afford the neighborhood.

An Example of Gentrification: The Oak Park area of Sacramento has been gentrifying for more than a decade. In some portions of the neighborhood there are signs of revitalization as residential properties are rehabbed, chain link fences are removed, and commercial businesses along Broadway are starting to attract outsiders (which is something that rarely happened in previous years). Overall a shift in attitude is taking place, and that is being reflected with greater demand and higher home prices. There are “gentrification pockets” so to speak in various areas of Oak Park, but not all areas.

Oak Park Sales in Sacramento - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Here are all Oak Park sales over the past 6+ years. This graph shows all portions of Oak Park including North Oak Park (not Med Center). These are residential sales from MLS (no private sales). The highest sale in Oak Park recently closed at $428,000. On one hand this sale is higher than anything else, and that gives us pause, but on the other hand it is larger in size and new homes tend to command a value premium.

Oak Park and Med Center Sales in Sacramento - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Med Center Thoughts: North Oak Park has been a very hot market, and some would say the line between Med Center and North Oak Park has been blurred in recent years, meaning higher values of the Med Center area have trickled throughout North Oak Park. If you are a buyer, would you pay a premium for Med Center or do you not care? As an appraiser I like to graph Med Center separately because some properties in Med Center can still command a premium. However, the graph does show the highest prices in Oak Park are more readily competing with Med Center prices.

SNL’s Gentrification Skit: By the way, if you haven’t seen Saturday Night Live’s skit on gentrification, they nailed it. Watch below (or here). There is some language, so be careful about kids being present.

Questions: Any thoughts, stories, or points to share? I’d love to hear your take. How has your perception of Oak Park changed over the past decade? Do you think there is a price difference between Med Center and North Oak Park? What are the strengths and weaknesses of gentrification?

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Seeing real estate trends in Sacramento (you pick the neighborhood)

Let’s look at some specific neighborhoods today in Sacramento. How is the real estate market evolving in each of these areas? In this post I plan to include 10 graphs, but the fun part is YOU CHOOSE which ones I make.

HOW IT WORKS: Email me a request to graph a specific neighborhood or area. I’ll then make a graph like the ones below and post it here over the next few days. Keep checking back. You can use the graph as personal research, for a listing presentation or post online as you see fit. I’ll need three things:

  1. Name: Location or name of neighborhood (in Sacramento, Placer or Yolo).
  2. Time: How many years of sales do you want on the graph (1 to 5 years)?
  3. Other: Do you want to see all sales? Or would you like to refine data to see a certain square footage range, bedroom count, etc…?

Send me a quick email? Seriously. ryan@lundquistcompany.com

NOTE: I have all graphs in larger sizes if you need them. Just email me.

1) Antelope: Here all all sales over the past 5 years in Antelope per request of Scott. Isn’t it interesting to see how the market has moved? Bottomed out in early 2012, massive appreciation and then leveling off.

All Antelope Sales - 530

2) Days on Market for Antelope Sales: How long have sales in Antelope spent on the market? Here are all sales. A chart of average number of days on market each month or quarter would be great, but maybe in a different post.

days on market for all sales in Antelope in MLS - 530

3) Midtown/Downtown: Per request in a comment below, here are all sales in Midtown/Downtown from 0-2 bedrooms and under 1000 sq ft. This graph only includes single family sales – NOT condos. What do you see?

Midtown Downtown Sales in Sacramento - SFR Detached Only - NOT Condos

4) Elk Grove: Per request of Bruce, here are all sales between Bruceville, Franklin, Bilby and Elk Grove Blvd. This is the 95757 zip code. Any thoughts?

Elk Grove Market Trends - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog - 530

5) Arden Manor: Per request of Cass, here are all 3-Bed / 1-Bath sales in Arden Manor (located off Watt Avenue in Sacramento in case you are not familiar).

Arden Manor Sales - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog - 530

6) Carmichael: Per request of Susan, here are all 3-4 bedroom sales in Carmichael over the past five years. I took the liberty to include only sales under $1,000,000 because there were only a handful above that level (and including them made the graph less legible). It would be interesting to see a precise square footage range in Carmichael as a follow-up to this graph.

carmichael sales 3-4 bedrooms - 530

7) Natomas: Here are all sales in the 95835 zip code for houses at 3200 sq ft or larger (hope you like this one John).

Natomas 95835 Sales - 3200 sq ft and larger - 530

8) Elk Grove: This is a graph of all sales in Elk Grove under $400,000 with 3-4 bedrooms, 1500-3000 sq ft of living area and properties built between 1997 to 2007. Hope you like it Gary.

Elk Grove Market Data - 530

9) Condos in City of Sacramento: This pie graph helps shows all condo sales in the City of Sacramento from 2010 to 2014 – and it really says something about the market, doesn’t it? Being that many condo complexes have too many rentals, pending litigation or some other issue that is a turn-off for financing, there has been a very high percentage of cash purchases. Note this is the City of Sacramento and NOT the entire county. Hope you enjoy this one Barbara.

condo sales in city of sacramento

10) Laguna West in Elk Grove: Here are all sales with a gross living area between 2400-3000 and with no pool in the Laguna West neighborhood over the past three years. Hope you like this one Doug.

Laguna West Sales - 2400-3000 GLA - no pool - 530

Examples for Blog Post:

1479 model in Mather

Mather: This graphs shows all 1479 model sales in Mather over the past five years. I appraised a model recently that was priced beyond the highest recent sale. It was out of sync with the market.

Gold River Station Sales

Gold River Station: It’s easy to confuse Gold River Station with Gold River, but they are two different areas. Gold River Station is located just north of Highway 50 and immediately south of the Gold River HOA. Gold River Station is not a part of Gold River, which is important to consider when choosing comparable sales.

Any thoughts, insight or questions?

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