Real estate headlines can get stale quickly, so we have to be really aware of what we’re saying. Is it still even true? Here’s an example of what I mean.

Headlines in recent years: Rising fire insurance rates in California are causing buyers to pull back from more rural areas.

New stats that change the narrative: In El Dorado County this past year we actually saw a larger increase of sales volume WITHIN areas that have higher fire insurance. Take a look at this visual. Typically El Dorado Hills & Cameron Park don’t have fire insurance issues whereas the rest of El Dorado County does (generally speaking). In short, volume in “fire areas” grew more than areas without issues.

Off the charts: Here is a visual to show how off the charts sales volume has been in El Dorado County. There was an initial COVID dip early in the year and then a massive increase WAY beyond normal.

QUICK TAKEAWAYS:

1) The market is always changing, so we need to be sure our narrative is informed by actual data instead of headlines from last year.

2) Uncertainty about fire insurance rates clearly didn’t hold back buyers this year in El Dorado County. Part of this could stem from rates regulating and buyers getting used to higher rates, but there is no mistaking El Dorado County had enormous pandemic migration. Thus incoming buyers simply cared way more about having land and space than fire insurance rates.

3) I’ve only run stats for El Dorado County, so I’d be careful about saying fire insurance is no biggie throughout California. Moreover, this trend could change in coming years. It’s actually very difficult to parse fire stats for Placer County. If anyone has ideas for how to do that I’m open ears. I just haven’t found a way yet.

VIDEO MARKET UPDATE:

Yesterday I did a big market update at Joel Wright’s Residential Roundup event. This is 38 minutes. Enjoy if you wish or skip to the last slide with closing thoughts to focus business in 2021. Watch below (or here).

PRESENTATION TODAY: I’m speaking at a Placer County Women’s Council of Realtors event from 10-11:30am. I’ll have one hour to unpack the market and I have some fresh Placer and El Dorado stats too. Sign up here.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing in El Dorado County or other areas? What are you hearing about fire insurance? I’d love to hear your take.

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