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House Appraisal

At least read this part of the appraisal

January 15, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 15 Comments

I know, nobody actually reads appraisal reports. Well, except for one thing – the value. But let’s talk about a critical place to look in an appraisal that can make all the difference. I have a story to share too about why this even matters.

BONUS: Check out the new new sales volume graphs below.

Look for these boxes: The bottom of page two in the appraisal has a few important boxes the appraiser can check, and these boxes help show if the value is “as is” or if there are required repairs, inspections, or other conditions. My advice? Be sure to look at these boxes carefully as well as any commentary listed in the space below (or the addendum if it says “See Addendum”).

If the value is “as is”, the appraiser is saying the property is worth that amount without any required repairs or further inspections needed.

If a “subject to” box is checked that likely means the value has already taken into consideration certain repairs or that the property will pass a future inspection (maybe a pest inspection, foundation inspection, two-year roof certification, etc…). So if an owner does the repairs listed, it doesn’t increase the value because the value was already based on the repairs being made.

In short, if you see a box checked besides “as is”, that’s a clue there is more to understand about the value.

An example of why this matters: A real estate agent uploaded an appraisal I did into MLS. This appraisal was completed for a lawyer and the value was not “as is”. In fact, this property had extensive damage, but the attorney asked me to value the property as if it was in average condition. This was spelled out blatantly in my report by using the boxes above (and in other places).

The problem here is the selling agent may not have realized the appraisal was not “as is” because the listing said something like, “Appraised at $670,000 in August 2018.” Yet the property was listed for $100,000 less because it was being sold “as is.” So the question becomes, could this be a liability for the agent? What if an out-of-town buyer bought based on thinking he/she was getting a discount because of the attached appraisal? Also, does this expose the appraiser to liability or reputation damage if people are reading the report and not understanding the value isn’t “as is”? I’m not a lawyer, but something doesn’t quite smell right here.

I’m not trying to make a big deal out of this, but sometimes details matter, so I caution real estate friends to look closely at the appraisal to understand the value. By the way, the agent was cool about removing the appraisal when I reached out about this.

The Big Point: Please read the bottom of page two to understand if the value is “as is” or if there are repairs built into the value. That can make all the difference.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

SALES VOLUME SLUMPING: On a different note, here are some graphs I made yesterday to tell the story of sales volume slumping 11% in the Sacramento Region. I included a graph from 2005 also in case you’re wondering what volume did when the housing market imploded.

Questions: Any stories to share? Do you look at the boxes I mentioned above? When is it okay and not okay to upload appraisals in MLS?

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff Tagged With: as improved value, as is condition, as is value, Home Appraiser, House Appraisal, hypothetical condition, reading appraisal reports, reading appraisals, Real Estate Appraisal, Sacramento Market Trends, sacramento regional appraisal blog, sales volume, sales volume slumping, subject to repairs, subject to repairs in appraisal

Talking real estate cycles at the dinner table

November 19, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 29 Comments

Let’s talk about real estate cycles. Are we at the top of the market? Lots of people are wondering, so I figured I’d throw out some charts to help fuel conversation. My goal here isn’t to say YES or NO, but to focus on stats for the sake of discussion. Well, and if you need something to talk about at Thanksgiving dinner besides politics… 

CYCLE CHARTS: Here’s some charts to show the annual median price in various local counties. What do you see? Look at price changes and cycle lengths. If you’re not local, what would charts like this look like in your market?

NOTE: The market started increasing in the late 90s, but stats from then are limited. Just know the first cycle above would have been a couple of years longer.

What about the ’70s and ’80s though?

Someone in the comments wanted to see price trends in previous decades, so here’s the 70s and 80s for context from the Freddie Mac Price Index. I’d love to expand my charts above, but I don’t have quick access to mass stats to make that happen. I’ll keep my eyes open though.

THOUGHTS ON REAL ESTATE CYCLES:

1) Up and down: Sometimes we get stuck talking about real estate like it only increases in value, but that’s fiction. The reality is markets go up and down – just like relationships, the stock market, or my pants size. The truth is we see longer periods where prices increase, decline, or persist in stability.

2) The seven-year cycle: Some say the market changes every seven years, which is a nice idea, but there’s no universal rule that says the market has to behave a certain way after a specific period of time. I definitely buy into the idea of market cycles, but I’m not dogmatic about a fixed number of years.

3) Momentum change: Right now as charts show we’re seeing momentum slowing in the market. What I mean is we’re typically seeing more subdued appreciation rates over the past few years. That’s not really a surprise though as affordability is becoming more of an issue with today’s prices.

4) Other: What is point #4?

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING: From my family to yours I wish you a very happy Thanksgiving. I’m glad we’re in this together and I appreciate our weekly conversations. Over coming days I hope you get some time off and find refreshment. I honestly hope you don’t bring up real estate cycles at the dinner table. But then again if you do, let me know how it goes….

Questions: What do you see in the charts above? What stands out to you most? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Appraisal, Appraiser, Bubble 2.0, El Dorado County, House Appraisal, House Appraiser, Placer County, real estate bubble, real estate cycle, real estate cycles in Sacramento, real estate market trends, Sacramento County, Yolo County

Slumping volume & rising inventory

October 11, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Volume is down and inventory is up. Is that a problem? It sounds like a question for a high school Economics class, but here we are talking. Today I want to kick around two quick thoughts and then dive deeply into trends. I hope this helps – whether you’re local or not. Anything to add?

Here are the two big ideas to talk through right now.

This could be a problem: If sales volume continues to slump and inventory rises without buyers absorbing new listings, it could be a sign the market is changing in a big way. No matter how we look at it sales volume has been down lately in Sacramento. This was the weakest September since 2007 as volume was 14% lower than last year, and quarterly volume was down about 6% too. But keep in mind overall the year as a whole has actually seen strong volume, so it’s not like sales have fallen off the face of the earth (but it’s a concern we’re seeing the numbers change over the past few months). Housing inventory is also up and we haven’t seen it this high since 2014.

This could also be a dull fall: Despite the numbers seeming gloomy right now, they’re actually really consistent with what the market showed in 2014 when we had an extremely dull fall season. In fact, quarterly volume that year was down 6% and September volume was weak too. Does that sound familiar? Also, we have a nearly identical level of inventory right now compared to then too. I don’t say this to sugar coat any red flags in the market, but only to give pause and say what we’re seeing right now could simply be a very dull fall season.

We need more time: The truth is we need time to see how the market will pan out. For now we live in the tension of not knowing the future and interpreting trends for the present. My advice? Watch closely, be careful of hyped headlines, and be sure to take a wider view of the market too (let’s not forget 2014).

I hope that was helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Prices actually went up last month. What the? Yes, the market is softening, but prices saw an uptick from August to September. That might seem confusing since we’re talking about the market cooling, but it highlights exactly what I’ve been talking about lately in that you don’t often see a market changing by looking at prices. You see change first in the listings and sales volume – and then prices eventually. This is exactly what’s happening right now. 

Normal fall stuff: Last month it took longer to sell, the number of listings increased, and we saw a dip in sales volume. This is what we’d expect to see at this time of year, though the dip in volume was definitely sharp, which is something we’ll watch over time to see if it’s a byproduct of a dull fall or the start of a bigger trend. Beyond volume being down 6% this quarter, all the metrics look fairly normal for the fall. Well, they look normal for a dull fall season, that is.

Momentum slowing: Beyond a seasonal slowing we’re also seeing momentum slowing. I explain it here in a presentation I gave yesterday.

Interest rates rising: One of the reasons why we’re seeing volume slough could be due to interest rates rising. Earlier in the year it seemed buyers ran to the market in light of news of rising rates, but right now it doesn’t seem like buyers have their running shoes on any longer.

Buyers have more power, but not all power: The market is shifting to favor buyers, though sellers still have lots of power. Some buyers hear about a softening market and think they can make lowball offers, but that’s just not realistic. For instance, last month 40% of all sales had multiple offers in the region. That tells us the market isn’t dead despite softening. Buyers, did you hear that? Enjoy your newfound power, but you still have to bring strong reasonable offers.

Listings may have peaked: Overall housing inventory is up as I mentioned above, but it looks like the number of listings is starting to crest for the year. I’ve been watching listings closely over the past few weeks and it seems like they maybe peaked. We’ll know for sure in a month or so. This is exactly what we’d expect to see happen around this time of year, but it maybe seems like more welcome news right now. Let’s keep watching to know for sure.

Being technical about weak volume and inventory: Here’s the thing, we saw a very weak sales volume in September, and it ended up really impacting inventory levels. In fact, when looking at graphs the trend line shot up dramatically last month (see below). But technically what happened was the sales that normally would’ve sold were basically piled on to the number of listings instead, and that’s making the housing supply figure look much more dramatic. Ultimately the number of listings isn’t all that abnormal for the time of year, though if sales continue to dry up over time, then it becomes a much bigger deal to have even this number of “normal” listings.

Pricing lower this fall: Right now at the least it looks like we’re poised to have a dull fall like we had in 2014. These past couple of fall seasons the market simply felt a little more flat, but this year I expect we’ll see a more pronounced price difference between sales in the spring and the fall. Remember, if listings aren’t attracting offers, it’s because the market is no longer biting at that level. What is similar and getting into contract? That’s the big question, and when a fall season is more dull it’s important to be realistic about the need to potentially price lower. In other words, it’s probably not going to be enough to price a property 1% below the height of spring and expect a flood of buyers. Remember, it doesn’t matter what other listings are priced at if they’re not selling. The only thing that matters is what is actually getting into contract. That’s where we see the market.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 63 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from August to September?

3) What’s happening with inventory?

4) What’s happening with sales volume?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • September volume down 14%
  • 2018 volume down 1% (January to September)
  • Annual volume down 2% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • September volume down 16%
  • 2018 volume down 1.4% (January to September)
  • Annual volume down 1.8% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • September volume down 19%
  • 2018 volume down 3% (January to September)
  • Annual volume down 3% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 63 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What do you see happening with volume and inventory right now? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: declining sales volume, El Dorado County, Home Appraisal, House Appraisal, Housing Bubble, Market Trends, Placer County, prices in sacramento, regional appraisal blog, Sacramenot County, Sacramento Region, sacramento regional housing blog, sales volume going down, slumping sales volume, trend graphs, Yolo County

Loud tile, fake trends, & staying grounded

October 1, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

I’ve been seeing lots of vibrant tile like this lately. Have you? Do you like it or not? Let me know, and let’s also talk about fake trends and market hype.

Strong opinions: Last week when sharing a picture of this tile on social media, I heard some strong opinions ranging from, “Dude, that is the coolest thing ever” to “Wow, that is just plain ugly.” Some said it was really stylish, but they were concerned it wouldn’t age well. Another person remarked it was like a pattern from the 70s all over again (without the green). Haha.

The reality is vibrant tile has been showing up for the past couple years. Here’s some examples in higher-end flips by Olivia Barrett.

On Twitter @Nashramento shared an image of tile in her Family Room. She said the tile would’ve been too busy for the floor, but not on the wall.

Big point: There’s a variety of opinions on loud tile, but here’s the truth. The market doesn’t care what I think about this tile, and if you’re not a buyer it doesn’t care if you like it either. This doesn’t mean we don’t get to have opinions, but from a real estate sales perspective the ONLY thing that is relevant is whether buyers right now prefer the tile or not.

Moving beyond tile: We have some pretty big headlines right now, and just like the tile above, there are lots of opinions about what the market is doing.

FAKE TRENDS: Quick, here’s some fake trends with legit-looking graphs.

Okay, you either loved the fake trends or you think I’m ridiculous. For me they’re great for conversation – especially in the midst of so many market opinions.

TIPS FOR STAYING GROUNDED IN THIS SLOWING MARKET:

1) Read the article: Some people are only reading headlines instead of the article. Right or wrong, that’s how it is. This becomes a problem if actual stats aren’t as sensational as the headline.

2) Interpret the article: Here’s the question. Is the claim in the headline supported by data? I like hearing opinions, but it doesn’t matter if someone feels like the market is doing something. What do the numbers say? Keep in mind national data could show a different trend than local data too.

3) Listen to many voices: It’s good to get a wide variety of thoughts about the market from more than just one person or data source.

4) Be in touch with what a seasonal slowing looks like: Sorry to beat the dead horse on this point, but we need to be in tune with what normally happens in a slower seasonal market to help us understand trends and spot anything abnormal. My advice? At the beginning of each month ask yourself what is normal. What regularly happens in the given month to prices, sales volume, inventory, days on market, the number of listings, etc…? By the way, here’s my normal vs tanking video if you missed it.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Appraiserfest: One last note, I’m going to San Antonio, Texas for Appraiserfest on November 1-3, and I’d love to see you there. I’m very excited to meet people I’ve been talking to online for years, and I’m pumped to get to speak also. My topic is on becoming an expert in your market. I get 90 minutes on stage, but I hope to have lots of time over a few days to sit down to share ideas too. 

Questions: What do you think of the tile? Any tips for staying ground in this market in the midst of so much hype? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Random Stuff, Resources Tagged With: appraisals in Sacramento, Appraiserfest, contributory value, current market, Design, fake trends, funky tile, Home Appraisal, House Appraisal, loud tile, sacramento housing blog, sacramento regional appraisal blog, style, things that make a difference in value, vibrant tile popular

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