New unemployment stats are out for Sacramento County. The unemployment rate dropped from 11.4% to 10.5% from March to April 2012. This is a big drop for one month, so we’ll have to see what coming months yield to see if this is just a blip or not. Whatever the case, it’s nice to see the overall downward trend in unemployment over the past year. It’ll only mean good news for the housing market to keep seeing this number decline. Source: EDD.

Here is a graph of unemployment in Sacramento County since 1990 to give a panoramic view of the job market. It’s amazing to consider the history of where we’ve been (and maybe a bit depressing too).

Do you want to share these graphs? If you’d like to use these graphs on your blog or website to be a resource to your readers and clients, please do so. If you need a larger size for a presentation or newsletter (or your blog), let me know. Please see my sharing policy for details. As always, thank you for linking back to me and keeping my images intact. It’s a huge honor when others share my content.

What do you see above? Anything stand out to you?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

If there is one conversation dominating real estate right now in Sacramento, it’s definitely the shortage of listings. It’s wild to think there is only about a one-month supply of inventory on the market. This means buyers have had to duke it out (not literally) to get into contract. Also, multiple offers and offers over asking have become much more common too.

But why is inventory low? Is it because of a coming “wave” of foreclosures or a “shadow” inventory? Do sellers have less confidence in the market? Do banks have something to do with it?

I talked with Eric Peterson of Praxis Capital about the issue of low inventory. Eric’s company pays very close attention to the market as they flip about 125 houses a year in the Greater Sacramento area. Watch the video below (or here).

What do you think? Anything else you’d add? Is there a looming shadow inventory? If you are an agent, buyer or seller, what’s it been like in the trenches for you lately?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

I don’t read calculus books for kicks, but I do like numbers. It’s really interesting to watch the trends in our real estate market in Sacramento to consider where we’ve been, what is happening now and where we might go. Take a minute to check out these graphs below and let me know what you think. What do you see?

Not many houses for sale: We’ve seen a huge drop in housing supply in the Sacramento area. Check out the graph above of Sacramento, Placer, Yolo and El Dorado Counties. Source: Trendgraphix, Inc.

Sacramento vs. Placer County: It’s interesting to see Placer County and Sacramento County median sales prices juxtaposed. I’m particularly interested to see how the trend evolves in the next six months. There is a slight uptick evidenced as of late and the Sacramento Association of Realtors blog reported an increase in median sales price level in April also. Only time will tell to see how that further unfolds. This graph comes from Joel Wright of Wright Real Estate (used with permission).

The Unemployment Saga: How is unemployment doing in the Sacramento area? Here is a historical glimpse of unemployment in Sacramento County from January 1990 through March 2012. I keep a running graph each month like this. If you need a larger size for a presentation or your blog, let me know (just keep my blog URL in the graph and see my sharing policy). Data source: EDD.

Current Unemployment Trends: As of March 2012 the unemployment rate per EDD in Sacramento County is 11.4%, which is similar to the rate during June 2009. It’s been so nice to see a decline from the high of 13.2% in July 2010, but there has been a slight uptick lately as you can see above. Unemployment rates tend to fluctuate, so it’s understandable to see the rate experience a little increase during recent months, but we just need it to decline to see housing improve. Bottom line.

California vs. Sacramento: How does the Sacramento area stack up against price trends in the rest of California? This graph shows the median price in California compared to the Sacramento area. The graph comes from Joel Wright of Wright Real Estate (used with permission).

Distressed vs. Traditional Sales: The Calculated Risk blog has some pretty amazing content. Be careful when you visit though because you might get stuck there for a while. The graph above is used with permission and is taken from a post that deals with distressed vs. traditional sales in Sacramento. The blog post states, “In April 2012, 60.7% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was up from 59.6% last month, and down from 66.8% in April 2011. This is lower than the last few years, but 60% distressed is still extremely high!” This is right in line with what I’ve been saying all along too as I’m cautious about focusing on smaller bits of good news in light of the overall context of the local economy and housing market. Granted, there are some positive signs with low inventory, small price increases and distressed sales going down, but we have a long way to go. Read more with two recent posts ”Juggling short sales and foreclosures in Sacramento” and “Weighing the distressed market in Sacramento.” Click HERE for a larger image of graph above.

What stands out to you? I’d love to hear your comments below.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

I came across this street in Sacramento last week and shot a quick video. Which house do you think might be overbuilt for the area? Does one stand out to you? The answer is obvious, I know, because one house is defnitely 2x or more the size of surrounding houses.

What disadvantages or advantages might an overbuilt house have? I’d love to hear your comments and stories below.

Let me know if you have any questions. Call 916.595.3735, email me, or contact me through my appraisal website.

Home owners often wonder how far the real estate market in the Sacramento area has declined since the housing “bubble” burst several years ago. Or in other words, if you bought your house today, how far back would you have to go to find the same price in the past? The graphs below from the Sacramento Association of Realtors help answer this question as they compare median sales price in respective zip codes to the county-wide median sales price from 1997 to 2010.

Have a look at the following graphs, see my commentary below, and let me know what you think. What do you see?

Carmichael Trend Graph (95608 zip code):

Elk Grove Trend Graph (95624 zip code):

Elk Grove Trend Graph (95758 zip code):

Fair Oaks Trend Graph (95628 zip code):

Greenhaven / Pocket Trend Graph (95831 zip code):

Land Park / Curtis Park Trend Graph (95818 zip code):

Mather Trend Graph (95655 zip code):

West Sacramento Trend Graph (95605 zip code):

Basically, if you bought a house today in the post-bubble real estate market in Sacramento, you’d be paying somewhere around late 2001 house prices generally (depending on the area of course). Many areas currently have a median price somewhere just before 2002, while some of the higher-priced zip codes tend to have a median price level right now closer to 2003-ish level. Keep in mind too that each house is different and may or may not be consistent with the overall zip code trend.

If you have any questions or insight, I’d love to hear your comment belows. If you have a need for my real estate appraisal or consluting services also, feel free to call 916.595.375, visit my website at www.LundquistCompany.com or email ryan@LundquistCompany.com.

How do the graphs above strike you?

I took this photo a few days back as a comp photo for an appraisal I’m doing near the Del Paso Heights area of Sacramento. This image tells an obvious story of a new roof being installed – but not just a newer roof, but a different type of roof. The house is being transformed from flat to hipped in style. The first image is an MLS photo.

The interesting thing to note while driving through this neighborhood is that there was at least one other house having a gable or hipped roof installed. Moreover, though there are still quite a few flat roofs in this neighborhood, many roofs have already been converted to a higher pitch. I’ve seen this same phenomenon in West Sacramento too. Does this say anything about the market?

Which style of roof do you prefer?

My Realtor friend Jenifer Miller invited me yesterday to give a 90-minute talk to a group of new real estate agents at Lyon Real Estate in Elk Grove. It was fun and I hope overall helpful too as we discussed how to more effectively communicate with appraisers in an HVCC world as well as a few tidbits on FHA minimum requirements.

Anyway, one of the members of the class brought up a great question. He asked how properties could not be worth at least their replacement cost. The truth is that we see so many properties in the Sacramento area selling far below what they would actually cost to build from scratch (cost of land + all improvements). 

That’s the nature of the market these days. But why is that? There are many factors to consider. Do you remember the real estate bubble? It couldn’t have lasted forever. Property values really climbed too quickly to enormously high levels, didn’t they? When the bubble burst, it changed the real estate market. There ended up being a huge oversupply of distressed properties listed on the open market, and these REOs set the pace for the rest of the market. Keep in mind too everything that was going on in Wall Street, the bailouts, and the economy beginning to sincerely struggle. All of these factors (and more) influenced property values.

Moreover, check out unemployment figures to the right for both Sacramento County & Placer County. These April 2010 stats from the Employment Development Department show an unemployment rate of 12.5% in Sacramento County and 11.5% in Placer County. Let’s contrast this with data from April 2006 that shows the unemployment rate was 4.8% in Sacramento County and 4.3% in Placer County. Things changed, didn’t they? In light of unemployment rates being significantly higher nowadays, do you think buyers could really afford to purchase houses right now at 2006 levels?  

What do you think? I’d love to hear your insight.

Check it out. I started a Facebook page for my business last week. My rationale for taking the plunge is threefold: 1) I like Facebook and I use it all the time; 2) Facebook is a ripe arena for conversation; 3) I want to make sure to be available and able to connect with others in this simple (free) way. Click the image below (or here) to visit the page.

You may wonder, “well, Ryan, you are so into social media, so why did it take you so long to create a Facebook page?” Honestly, I felt conflicted for a while, so I needed time to really think this through. Facebook is so personal, and I just didn’t want to be “that guy” who looked and sounded like he was marketing to his friends. This was really a philosophical hurdle that I needed to sift through over time before rolling out in confidence with a page. It just took a bit of time for me to ultimately feel comfortable enough that starting a page was the best move, and that it’s acceptable and non-spammy to have a page for business (well, non-spammy depending on how you use it of course). And by the way, I am not “that guy”.

Do you have a Facebook page? Why? Why not?

They say a picture is worth a thousand words, and in this case it’s true. I noted quite a few bullet holes in the stucco of a house on a recent appraisal inspection. I’m not a big gun guy (or CSI fan), so I couldn’t tell you what type of firearm caused this damage, but I do know that holes like this are a sad commentary on reality.

Here are a couple of trend graphs below for the 95742 zip code of Rancho Cordova. This area is comprised mostly of “Anatolia“, but also consists of a development called “Sunridge”, which is not part of the Anatolia HOA. 

You be the appraiser here. What do you see in the trend graphs below when looking at the past years of sales? Is there anything you notice to be different or similar when comparing the two graphs? 

Past three years of sales:

Past one year of sales: 

The yellow pages used to be the go-to source for information, but nowadays we use search engines. Whether in need of directions, movie times, or a solution to fixing a leaky faucet, we go online to find the answers.

This is true for personal matters and also for business. I know many people find my website and blog because they’re looking for information on the real estate market in Greater Sacramento or they’re maybe in need of appraisal services. In fact, seconds ago I returned a phone call from an out-of-state Realtor hoping to ask me a question about FHA appraisal standards. Or last week a home owner found me online and then hired me to do a retrospective appraisal on his property for his estate settlement. The stories go on and on like this. It’s just the way that business (and life) happens these days, and I am constantly amazed at how quickly we can come by good information. 

As a compliment to this post, I made a “search story” on YouTube. This is one of Google’s latest free and interesting gadgets. Have you made a “story” yet?

With all that being said, I’m glad you’re here. By the way, what did you type into a search engine to make your way over? If you end up having any questions about real estate or anything you see me mention on my site, let’s talk. I’m available for you at 916-595-3735 or ryan@LundquistCompany.com.

The question “How is the real estate market doing?” usually deserves more time than just 30 seconds. There’s definitely background research, information, and experience needed to answer this question properly. 

I wanted to take you through (in part) how I get this answer as a Certified Real Estate Appraiser in the Sacramento area. In the video below (or HERE) I analyze a portion of the Lincoln Crossing community in Lincoln, CA, and I’ll show you what goes on in my mind as I crunch numbers and explore the local market. I hope this video is helpful.