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how appraisers choose comps

When there’s no other manufactured homes in the neighborhood

October 23, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

What do you do if you’re trying to value a manufactured home and there aren’t any comps in the market? I’ve been asked this a few times lately, so I wanted to pitch in some thoughts.

PUZZLE APPROACH: There isn’t one easy way to approach this, so when appraising something challenging I tend to look at a property like a puzzle where my goal is to find clues into value by considering a number of factors.

THINGS TO CONSIDER:

1) Older sales: There might not be any recent sales over the past 3-6 months, but what about older sales? There’s nothing wrong with looking at sales over the past few years and then figuring out how much the market has changed since those properties sold. This is exactly what I did when appraising a manufactured home in Carmichael recently. There were no recent sales and the most relevent one I could find was from 2016. I used that sale and simply adjusted for the market increasing in value over time.

2) Competitive markets: If sales are sparse in the neighborhood or city, why not look to competitive markets? When appraising in Carmichael I looked to Fair Oaks, Orangevale, and Citrus Heights. Of course I didn’t blindly choose sales. No, I had to be thoughtful about comp selection by making sure the other areas really were selling at a similar level. After all, there are portions of the other locations that could easily sell for more or less than portions of Carmichael.

Beyond one mile? Remember, it’s okay to use “comps” outside of a one-mile radius, but it’s suspect to cherry-pick higher sales further away when there are better (and lower) ones nearby. Here’s a good saying. It’s not how far you can go for comps, but where you should go.

3) If it was stick built: In my experience manufactured homes usually sell for less than stick-built homes. Duh, thanks Captain Obvious. But for the sake of being objective I’m leery about saying stuff like, “It’s going to sell for less than a stick-built home every time”. Anyway, my point is I can ask what the subject might sell for if it was a stick-built home in the neighborhood. Then at least I have a figure in mind as to what the highest possible price might be for the subject.

4) Subject sale: Has the subject sold in the past? If it was a reasonable sale at the time, it might give clues into value. What other locations were competitive at the time? Did it seem to sell toward the higher or lower end of the competitive market? Did it sell for more or less than other stick built homes?

5) Manufactured vs stick built: What’s the price difference between manufactured and stick built homes? That’s a good question. It’s not easy to answer if we don’t have sales in the market, so this is where we might look to a nearby market with more manufactured homes (not ones found in mobile home parks). When comparing manufactured vs stick-built homes, what sort of percentage price difference do we see? I’m not saying we should just take a percentage like this and apply it to stick-built “comps” in the subject neighborhood, but there could be some data here we might end up using. Remember, this is a piece of the puzzle or clue into value rather than the entire solution to value.

6) Ask for advice on finding sales in MLS: One of the challenges with manufactured homes is knowing how to find them in MLS. I suggest starting a map search as I show below. You might also do a single family home search and type in “manufactured” in the property description to see if anything comes up. Ultimately it might be worth it to ask a few colleagues how they find stuff in MLS.

7) Bottom & Top: Sometimes when dealing with a challenging property we have to ask ourselves where the top and bottom of the price market is in the neighborhood. At the least this gives us some context for where the value of the subject property might fit. In Carmichael I looked to the market and saw the lowest sales were closer to $300,000 and the highest competitive sales were just above $400,000. I realize this is a huge range, but at the least this gives me something to work with. Also, if my value is coming in below the bottom of a reasonable range, that’s a prod for me to keep digging for better comps and data (unless there’s a reason why the value should be lower).

8) Land value: Let’s not forget about land value. It’s worth asking what the site would sell for if it was vacant. This isn’t the main approach to value, but it’s a piece of the puzzle. The problem is if I’m relying heavily on one manufactured home comp in the market, but land value alone is more than that comp sold for, then maybe that one “comp” sold for too little.

CLOSING THOUGHTS: It really is like a puzzle when valuing something without the benefit of recent similar sales. My advice? Try to piece together many details like the ones above to help collectively paint a picture of value.

I hope that was helpful.

Photo credit: Thank you Realtor Sandy Muzinich for letting me use photos.

NEW VIDEO MARKET UPDATE: A couple of days ago I made a video to talk through the latest stats. It’s 10+ minutes and I talk through prices, inventory and sales volume. Enjoy if you wish.

Questions: What point stands out to you the most? Anything else to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Resources Tagged With: bottom of the market, Carmichael, choosing comps, comp selection, Fair Oaks, Greater Sacramento appraisal blog, how appraisers choose comps, Manufactured Home, MLS, no comps, Orangevale, questions to ask, stick-built home, top of the market

Choosing comps when there is a gated community

August 1, 2016 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

I had a real estate agent ask a fantastic question recently about choosing comps when there is a gated neighborhood. Here’s the issue: If the subject property is NOT located in a gated community, can an appraiser use “comps” that are similar and within 0.25 miles but are in a gated community? My answer is YES and NO.

45853684 - iron gate

YES: An appraiser can definitely use sales from a gated community. If there isn’t a price difference inside and outside the gate, an appraiser can use gated sales and make no value adjustment. Or if there is a price difference between the two locations, an appraiser can always choose to use gated “comps”, but also make an up or down adjustment to account for the value difference.

NO: Sound the alarm because it’s a red flag if you are valuing something outside a gate but only using gated “comps”. After all, what is the gate keeping in? And what is it keeping out? Despite being nearby, a gated subdivision could be a much different market that is higher or lower in price. Realistically, if I am only using gated sales for my “comps”, I haven’t really shown what the market is willing to pay outside the gate. There could be a value difference, which is why it’s critical to find non-gated sales to help tell the story of value for the subject property (even if the sales are older). It goes back to an “apples to apples’ comparison where we want to try to use the most similar sales in terms of size, location, condition, quality, bed/bath count, etc… Ultimately as we study the market we can make the distinction between properties that are truly “comps” from ones that are merely sales.

A local example: Here is a graph of all 2500 to 3500 sq ft sales in the Crocker Ranch area of Roseville. The blue dots are the gated sales and the yellow dots are the non-gated sales.

Crocker Ranch Neighborhood - Sacramento Appraisal Blog

The graph helps show larger-sized properties inside the gated areas tend to command higher prices. Obviously there are some higher non-gated sales too, but the highest sales in the area over the past 7 years have come from within the gate. This is why we have to study sales and then choose “comps” accordingly.

choosing comps in appraisal - sacramento real estate appraisal blog

Questions: Do you find values to be higher or lower outside of a gated community? Any other advice or wisdom you’d offer when it comes to choosing comps? Did I miss anything?

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Resources Tagged With: comp methodology, gated community, house appraisers in Sacramento, how appraisers choose comps, how to choose comps, outside of gated community, Sacramento home appraisers, sacramento regional appraisal blog, the right comps, the wrong comps, value premium for gate

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