• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Sacramento Appraisal Blog | Real Estate Appraiser

Real estate appraisals for divorce, estate settlement, loans, property tax appeal, pre-listing and more. We cover Sacramento, Placer and Yolo County. We're professional, courteous and timely.

  • About
  • Appraisals
  • Order
  • Ask Ryan
  • Areas
  • Classes
  • Press
  • Trends
  • Share
  • Contact

low mortgage rates

Don’t hold your breath for a Covid discount

June 17, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

“Why is there not a pandemic discount? I don’t get it. The market has been going down.” Someone was angry with me recently after an estate appraisal didn’t come in low enough in his mind. The thought was prices should be dipping because we’re in a pandemic, but that hasn’t been happening.

The Truth: Lots of people expect the market to be weak right now.

The Takeaway: Let’s be careful not to impose ideas on the market about what we think should be happening. Instead, let’s look to the numbers to form our understanding. Likewise, it’s critical to be objective about the present and keep an eye on glaring uncertainties regarding the future. But let’s do this without viewing stats through a rose-colored lens or painting every conversation with a doom and gloom brush.

Anyway, that’s what’s on my mind…

———————— big monthly update below ————————

BIG MONTHLY UPDATE:

This is long on purpose. Skim or digest slowly. Your call. 

FREE MARKET UPDATE: On Monday June 22nd at 10am PST I’m giving a one-hour free market update via Zoom through the Sacramento Association of Realtors. Please sign up here.

WEEKLY VIDEO: Here’s my weekly video update to talk through the latest trends (shorter this week too). Watch below (or here).

Now some big topics…

FLAT PRICES: When we look at the latest price trends, it’s pretty flat. As you can see, the stats show modest price gains since last year. Granted, this month was more subdued than last month, so before writing home about this trend we need a few more months of data to fully understand the market. Remember, this doesn’t mean the market is dull because it’s actually quite competitive. It doesn’t mean every price range and neighborhood are flat either. But it does remind us prices haven’t been going insane despite the market feeling ultra-competitive. 

CRESTING FOR THE SEASON: Based on the next three images, it looks like the spring season has started to crest. We’re seeing a dip in prices and we’re having less multiple offers.

NEXT MONTH THOUGH: When sharing about flat prices, I’ve been tending to get reactions saying price metrics in a couple months may show an uptick again because mortgage rates have gone down lately. Look, that’s possible and we can adapt our narrative if that happens. To be fair, there’s nothing normal about life and real estate lately, so anything is possible for the future and we’re certainly experiencing some abnormal pent-up demand right now.

SALES VOLUME DOING THE LIMBO: Here’s a brand new visual to show most counties in May were down 30% or more in volume from 2019. Do you like this one? Should I keep making it?

LEARN TO MAKE A GRAPH: In case you didn’t see this on my YouTube channel, I put out a new tutorial for how to make a graph with three price metrics. This can be made for a zip code, city, county, etc… My advice? Set aside an hour in your schedule to make learning this happen. Becoming more visual changed the way I see the market and it frankly changed my career.

LOW RIDING: We had the second lowest month of sales volume for May in Sacramento County over the past twenty years.

BUT VOLUME IS ACTUALLY INCREASING: When we look at sales volume by the week instead of the month, we’re starting to see more sales close. In fact, for four weeks now we’ve seen an uptick. This change reflects pending contracts from about 4-6 weeks ago finally starting to close. I suspect in coming months we’ll keep seeing volume increase since pendings have been on fire lately.

MORE PENDINGS THAN NEW LISTINGS: For the fourth week in a row we literally had more pending contracts than new listings hit the market in the Sacramento Region. This shows buyers have been coming back to the market more quickly than sellers. Let’s remember buyers have strong incentive to get into contract quickly to lock in a historically low mortgage rate, but sellers just don’t have that same sense of urgency.

CHANGE BY THE RANGE: Here’s a look at what’s happening with different price ranges. These two images compare the change in April and May from 2019 to 2020. I don’t know that there’s anything revolutionary here, but what we want to watch over time is whether different price segments are slowing or speeding up. I think with a few more months of data we might have more to consider.

INVENTORY AT DIFFERENT PRICE POINTS: What’s happening with inventory in different price segments? Well, it’s actually pretty tight, but let’s watch above one million closely because it’s trending a little higher. Granted, it’s pretty normal to have 8-10 months of housing supply at the highest prices, but still we’ve seen more of an uptick lately.

2,651 FEWER LISTINGS SINCE THE PANDEMIC: Over the past three months there have been over 2,500 fewer listings compared to the same time last year. No wonder why it feels so competitive…

Now here are more visuals. As if this post wasn’t long enough already…. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share my content (please don’t copy my posts verbatim).

SACRAMENTO REGION:

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Okay, let’s wrap this thing up.

Questions: What stands out to you about the market right now? What are buyers and sellers saying? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Share:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: flat prices, housing trends in sacramento, listings, low mortgage rates, pandemic housing market, pandemic real estate trends, pending contracts, pendings, sacramento housing market, sacramento regional appraisal blog, seaonal real estate market

The blazing hot market & uncertainty

March 13, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

The market has been white hot, but there is also lots of uncertainty right now too. Let’s talk about this and take a deep dive into the latest stats for those interested. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

A few things I want to mention:

1) Layers: There are many layers that make the housing market move and sometimes unexpected things happen. Who would have thought we’d be talking about rates at 3% or a virus?

2) Dumpster fire: Social media is like a raging dumpster fire right now in light of coronavirus posts. It’s been unreal, so I’ve had to distance myself from scrolling too much. Can you relate?

3) Keeping my blog name: This won’t become the COVID-19 Appraisal Blog, but we’ll talk about the virus as needed as it relates to housing. No fear. No hype. Objective thoughts and analysis. Ultimately it’s important to have honest housing conversations and consider things that could affect the future.

4) Be at peace: I’m profoundly aware of the need to remain calm and have a sense of peace, but I’m also aware that probably won’t happen by accident. This might seem odd to mention, but I want to encourage everyone to find ways to cultivate peace right now in uncertain times. If you need ideas too, reach out. This is way more important than anything else I talk about, which is why I’m mentioning it.

Anyway, that’s what’s on my mind. Now for those interested let’s take a deep dive into local housing trends.

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

THE SHORT VERSION:

  • Prices are back to summer
  • Has coronavirus affected the market?
  • Watching for a coronavirus effect
  • Lack of confidence
  • More competitive at lower prices
  • More multiple offers
  • The market is accelerating
  • Mortgage rates & Debbie Downer
  • You still have to price it right
  • Sales volume is lackluster
  • Back to the nominal peak
  • More visuals for surrounding counties

DOWNLOAD 90 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Back to summer: The median price in Sacramento County jumped $20,000 from January to February. I know that sounds sensational to see a $5.3% increase, but keep in mind the median price was $385,000 at the height of summer last year, so the bigger story is we basically got back to where summer was plus a few percent. It’s pretty common by March or so to see the median price back to where it was during summer, but in a more aggressive year this can happen in February. On paper the market is glowing, but the big elephant in the room is the coronavirus, so let’s talk about it.

Has coronavirus affected the market? Someone called me yesterday and asked if coronavirus has affected the housing market. I wrote about this last week and I basically told the guy we don’t have any real data yet. So far in Sacramento this year the market has felt competitive and any threat of an outbreak has seemed to be hampered by the sexiness of low mortgage rates. However, we haven’t really had many COVID-19 cases manifest locally and people haven’t been too concerned. Though this week social media began to panic and it seems like we’ve reached an inflection point as events get cancelled, people are practicing social distancing, and familiar faces like Tom Hanks have the virus. In short, it seems like many people have shifted to take this more seriously and in terms of real estate that’s something that could easily affect buyer and seller behavior in coming time. I realize a focus on real estate right now seems trivial when talking about a pandemic, but that’s what my blog does. In short, let’s pay closer attention to the stats in coming weeks especially.

Watching for a coronavirus effect:  If we’re looking at recent sales, it likely won’t show us an effect of the coronavirus because sales tell us what the market used to be like when properties got into contract 30 to 60 days ago. If we begin to see an impact it’s going to start with what buyers and sellers are thinking right now, which will translate into what they do. Thus it’s important to listen for seller and buyer sentiment and to watch whether sellers are listing their homes and whether buyers step aside with a “wait and see” stance. More specifically, I recommend watching the number of new listings hitting the market, expired listings, price reductions, the number of sales happening, days on market, the number of pendings, number of multiple offers, credits being offered, etc… It’s tempting to look at prices as a gauge for any COVID-19 effect, but prices are the last place a trend shows up.

Lack of confidence: The big deal happening right now is consumers are losing confidence. On one hand the stock market doesn’t technically mean much for most buyers trying to qualify for a mortgage because their income isn’t based on Wall Street. But losing money in a 401K over time can certainly lead to less confidence about making other big financial decisions. So far the housing market has felt hyper-competitive this year locally because of low rates, but that can change quickly depending on how consumers feel about the economy, job market, and of course health. I know, housing is a need, so it’s different than choosing whether to eat out right now or not. But it’s also true buyers and sellers don’t always feel the need at every moment to pursue buying and selling. Like I said last week, markets don’t like uncertainty, so infusing more uncertainty into the economy and housing market is a big deal for how the market feels and what the market does. In all of this we’d be wise to avoid hype and sensational ideas. Let’s look to data to inform our perception of what is actually happening.

Okay, back to some stats.

More competitive at lower prices: Buyers know this. It’s been hard to get into contract lately – especially at lower prices where the market is more aggressive. Let me show you this with a bunch of yellow dots representing the sales price to original list price ratio. If you’re not familiar with this metric, when a property sells at 100% it means it sold at exactly the price it was listed. Likewise when the ratio is 103% it’s a sign a home sold three percent higher than the list price. Anyway, when looking at all February sales there are more properties selling above 100% at lower prices. This tells us homes are getting bid up more at lower prices. Duh, thanks Captain Obvious. I know this isn’t a surprise, but it’s fascinating to see visually. Here’s a big takeaway though. NOT everything is selling for more than the list price – even at lower prices. I know it doesn’t seem that way in the trenches of escrows, but there is no denying this reality when looking at the stats.

More multiple offers this year: This has been the most aggressive beginning of the year in several years. Technically the market saw 27% more multiple offers this year compared to last year at the same time.

The market is accelerating: For a long while I’ve been talking about how the market is slowing because that’s what the stats were showing, but I’m changing my tune because the market is accelerating again. Here are two images to consider. When we look at the median price in the region based on the previous twelve months, price growth has clearly tapered. It’s like you’re driving on the freeway and you take your foot off the gas pedal. You’re still moving forward, but you’re not going as fast. But when we look at the past 90 days in each respective year it’s obvious the market is starting to accelerate again.

SLOWING TREND:

SPEEDING UP LATELY:

Mortgage rates & Debbie Downer: This year the market has felt dramatically different than last year and the culprit is low mortgage rates. Having rates between 3 to 3.5% has been like injecting a steroid into the housing market because it’s made things super competitive. For some it’s helped create more affordability or at least incentive to get into the game, but this also artificially inflates prices and it’s not sustainable. I know I sound like Debbie Downer, but such low rates are a bit like injecting Cortisone into a bad hip. It feels good for a while until it wears off.

You still have to price it right: It’s tempting to think the market is so aggressive that you can price however you want. Nope. It’s still a price-sensitive sellers’ market. Even though it feels crazy right now due to low rates, buyers are still in tune with prices and not willing to offer any price out of desperation. Case-in-point: Here is what just about every neighborhood looks like. The longer a home is on the market, the further it tends to sell from its original price. It seems in most areas bidding wars happen in the first seven days and if the market is not biting at your price you better give serious consideration to doing a price reduction. If the market is speaking, it’s time to listen.

Sales volume is lackluster: Prices have been glowing and we’re seeing multiple offers, but sales volume is lackluster. On in more positive terms we could say the number of sales is pretty normal – but definitely on the lower side of normal. In the region we seem to have a new rhythm these past two years of 26,000 sales, but that’s clearly down from 28,000 in previous years (see image). Some say more new homes is the reason, but new construction hasn’t been that robust. Moreover, sales volume started to suffer as soon as mortgage rates shot up in 2018, so to me lower volume has more to do with buyers backing off (and affordability). With that said, we’ve been seeing fewer listings this year especially, so over time this can lead to fewer sales too.

Back to the nominal peak: The median price is officially back to where it was at the peak of the market in 2005. This honestly doesn’t mean anything because there isn’t any formula for the market where a “pop” or change happens when reaching a certain price level. But as a guy watching data closely for so many years, the numbers geek in me has been waiting a long time to see this happen. But again, it doesn’t mean anything. Technically when comparing value today with a date in the past it’s important to factor in how the value of the dollar has changed over time. If we use an inflation calculator the value of the dollar in 2005 at $395,000 would actually be worth $520,000 today. This is seriously anal and most people could care less about this technical conversation, but I wanted to mention it because it’s worth knowing. Also, I’ll hopefully avoid persecution on Twitter from the economics community. For me there is a practical takeaway here though because you’ll not hear me say stuff like, “Values are back to 2005”. Nope. Technically they’re not. But the nominal price is back to 2005, so that’s why I say things like, “Prices metrics are back to where they used to be.”

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

 

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

 

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 90 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What stands out to you about the market right now? What else would you add? What are you hearing about coronavirus?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Share:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: appraisal blog, coronavirus, COVID-19, El Dorado County, Greater Sacramento appraisal blog, low inventory, low mortgage rates, market momentum, Median Price, pandemic, Placer County, price growth, Sacramento County, Sacramento Region, sales volume

Coronavirus & the housing market

March 3, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 26 Comments

The world probably doesn’t need another coronavirus real estate post, but here we are. Over the past week I’ve had countless conversations on the topic so I wanted to share some thoughts. How might the coronavirus affect the housing market? Here are some things to keep in mind.

Things to consider about the coronavirus & real estate:

1) Uncertainty: Markets don’t tend to like uncertainty. It’s been true in the stock market over the past week and it’s true in real estate also.

2) Severity matters: If this virus doesn’t spread much there might not be much effect on the housing market. But if it begins to spread in mass it’s easy to imagine sellers postponing listing their homes and buyers choosing to sit on the sidelines. Ultimately as we consider the immediate future there’s a huge difference between having a handful of coronavirus cases versus a devastating outbreak like the movie Contagion (probably not a helpful film to watch right now). Keep in mind if we’re dealing with something that ends up being very temporary it’s not likely to have a lasting effect.

3) Consumer behavior: One of the most relevant things to consider is whether the coronavirus starts to affect consumer behavior and confidence. No matter what you think about this whole thing, if people begin to postpone or halt financial decisions, that’s when it can begin to matter more for the economy and housing market. Let’s remember many buyers are already struggling with a feeling of hesitancy about the market, so for some the coronavirus could end up magnifying that feeling. Are consumers going to dine out fewer times? Will they stop buying stuff? Will they sit on the sidelines of the real estate market to wait and see what happens? We’re at the beginning stages of this and we’ll have answers to these questions over time. Obviously if there was a massive outbreak though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the housing market stall or decline. In case you wanted to follow consumer confidence closely, here is a source tracking it daily (found via Len Kiefer):

4) Swine Flu & Ebola: Someone asked if I had any market stats from previous decades when we dealt with SARS, Ebola, or Swine Flu. No, I don’t. The struggle with these examples is we didn’t have a local epidemic, so there wasn’t any real impact on the market. 

5) The economy: One of the more gloomy elements to watch is the Chinese economy as well as our own. Some writers are talking about the potential for a worldwide recession in light of how tied the world is to China. That’s a sensational idea bound to get lots of attention. Is it real? We’ll see what happens.

6) Rates doing the limbo: In the midst of this we’re seeing mortgage rates drop and some are saying they’ll continue to dip. I’ve even heard claims they could drop below 3%. That would be insane!! So if anything it’s possible we could still have a very competitive real estate market in the immediate future. As a side note, it’s actually been an aggressive start to the year in terms of price growth in Sacramento and I’ll have more thoughts on that next week. For now buyers and sellers seem more focused on low rates than the coronavirus, but let’s keep watching because that could change.

7) Sifting data: Hopefully this will all blow over and we won’t have any worst-case-scenarios play out. If you want to watch real estate data though, be sure to pay attention to the number of listings and sales volume – not just prices. Remember, prices are the last place we see change show up even though it’s usually the first place we look. In other words, we see a market shifting first in consumer sentiment, what is happening with listings, whether homes are selling, and then eventually down the road with price changes. So like I always say, the trend happens before we see it in the prices.

8) Peace: On a personal note, I hope you find peace in coming time no matter what happens in the future. If you’re feeling stressed by all these conversations, maybe get intentional about filtering information and finding ways to add peace into your life.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you talking about in coronavirus conversations lately? What are buyers and sellers saying? Anything to add? What did I miss?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Share:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: China, consumer confidence, coronavirus, economy, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, layers of the real estate market, low mortgage rates, public health, rates declining, Sacramento, sacramento housing market, uncertainty, virus

The market is hot (but dull on paper)

February 12, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

The market looks really dull on paper, but it’s not. Well, the latest sales stats from January are sluggish, but one of the worst things we can do this time of year is get stuck on sales. The problem is the market is actually heating up right now, but we just won’t see it for a couple months until current hot pendings start closing escrow. Here are a few fresh analogies to help explain this dynamic. Then for those interested, let’s take a deep dive into the market.

Examples to explain the market at this time of year:

Pregnancy test: You can technically be pregnant but an over-the-counter test won’t tell you that for a couple of weeks. Similarly, the market is heating up, but we won’t see the results of the market changing for a couple months until current pendings start closing escrow.

Getting a pay raise: You got a pay raise, but you won’t see it reflected until your next paycheck in a few weeks or months. The market is exactly like that. Something good is happening, but we don’t quite see it in the sales stats yet (but we do see it in the pendings). 

Election results: The polls jut closed and there’s definitely a winner, but we don’t know who it is until the votes are actually counted. This reminds us of today. We don’t always know exactly what the stats are going to be in a couple months, but we do sense the market getting hot.

Planting a seed: The market is like planting a seed. You know something is growing, but you cannot see it yet until it pokes above ground in a month or two.

Thank you Twitter friends for helping me crowdsource some of these examples.

CLASS I’M TEACHING: By the way, I’m doing my favorite class at SAR on Feb 18th from 9am-12pm called “How to Think Like an Appraiser.” Sign up here.

THE BIG POINT: In a normal January and February the market is in a weird spot. It’s out of hibernation from the holidays, but we might not see any upward value movement in sales stats until March (even though the market started heating up in January and February). The truth? Data lags the trend. I remind myself of this every year. Anyway, here are some things to watch right now:

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

THE SHORT VERSION:

  • January stats were down
  • Hot stats have an asterisk
  • Strong pendings so far
  • The market feels like 2017
  • Competitive feel vs increases
  • Pretty weak January volume
  • No “full” priced offers yet
  • Multiple offers growing
  • Sales volume feels normal (sort of)
  • Why volume slumped
  • Low rates are like steroids
  • Listings are coming
  • Ain’t nothing wrong with a slower pace
  • More visuals for surrounding counties

DOWNLOAD 82 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

January stats were down: Usually January real estate numbers are sluggish, which is why we shouldn’t look to them to boost our self-esteem. This makes sense though because closed sales reflect what the market was doing during November and December when these properties got into contract. Here’s a good picture of the market where you can see clear softening from December to January in every category (this is normal for the time of year).

Hot stats have an asterisk: Most price metrics right now are up 5-7% compared to last year and this makes the market sound super hot. But one thing we have to realize is we’re comparing today with a very dull season last year. So for the past few months we’ve seen sexy stats that make it seem like the market is going insane, but we need to be aware of how easily numbers can get inflated if we don’t recognize how dull the market was then compared to now.

Strong pendings so far: The sales numbers for January are dull, but the seasonal market is definitely heating up. We just don’t quite see it in the stats yet. Last week 500 properties got into contract in the Sacramento Region. There were 600 new listings also. Overall pendings look to be up slightly compared to the past couple years at this time.

The market feels like 2017: It’s important to recognize the temperature of the market is definitely changing for the season as it’s getting “hot” around here, but it’s not also the type of hyper-aggressive market we saw in 2013 either. I think a good way to describe today is it’s a price-sensitive sellers’ market that feels much more like 2016 or 2017 rather than 2013.

Competitive feel vs aggressive increases: The market is definitely competitive out there, but it’s also important to realize it’s possible to have a really competitive market without crazy value increases either. In other words, we can have lots of competition without enormous price gains. This is sort of what much of last year felt like actually where the market was competitive but price increases were more subdued. Of course the verdict is still out on this spring season, and it’s frankly going to be interesting to see how the numbers evolve in light of how low mortgage rates are.

Pretty weak January volume: The positive news is this January sales volume was up about 6% compared to last year, but it was actually the second lowest January in terms of sales volume in over a decade in Sacramento County.

No “full” priced offers yet: Did you watch “Full House” from the 80s and 90s? I sure did. But I’ll admit I haven’t jumped on the “Fuller House” reboot on Netflix. I’m just not interested. Anyway, the “Full House” home in San Francisco has been on the market and it’s not selling. It’s almost like buyers aren’t willing to overpay just because the house was on TV… Seriously though, this is a great lesson. Buyers won’t pay any price, but they will pay the right price. Did you hear that sellers?

Multiple offers growing: An interesting way to gauge the market is to consider multiple offers beause it’s a clue into the current market. We don’t have sales stats yet to show a “hot” spring, but we do have pendings, and this says something. Last month 44.5% of sales had more than one offer. This is actually higher than it was last year or any year for that matter since our MLS began tracking the number of offers.

Sales volume is normalizing (sort of): For over a year we saw sales volume drop, but over the past six months we’ve been coming out of the slump. Well, technically. Stats have been up these past six months, but we have to take this news in context because we’re comparing today’s numbers with really dull stats from the previous year. In short, on one hand we’ve seen volume sort of normalize so to speak over the past two quarters, but on the other hand we’re still down from previous years as you can see in the second image below. In fact, this past year saw about 1,500 to 2,000 fewer sales compared with the clear trend from 2016 through 2018. But here’s the thing to remember. Sales volume was lower these past two years, but it’s also on the lower side of normal. So if we look at 2014 and 2015, for instance, we can see this clearly. But the bigger truth is we’ve seemed to break away from the higher trend from 2016 through 2018. So in this regard sales volume is still down. Are we now entering a new normal with lower volume? We’ll see.

Why volume slumped: When giving market updates the conversation about slumping volume almost always leads into talking about anemic listings. The idea is volume has slumped because there are fewer listings available. It sounds logical because if you have fewer listings, you’re going to have fewer sales. The truth is over time if sellers don’t list this could absolutely affect sales volume. But here’s the thing to remember. When volume started to really slump in 2018 it wasn’t because of a lack of listings. It was because mortgage rates shot up and it shocked buyers out of the market. Buyers definitively put their foot on the brakes and we saw the effect of that for over a year. So while anemic listings can certainly influence sales volumes figures over time I think we have to recognize that what started this was a reaction against increasing rates (which is really about affordability).

Low rates are like steroids: Mortgage rates have almost never been as low as they are right now, and we have a market that is very sensitive to rate changes. So when rates move up, we really feel it and the market gets dull. Likewise, when rates drop, buyers jump into the game and the market feels much more competitive. Buyers at the moment need to get into contract quickly to lock in a low rate, so that only compounds a competitive feel.

Expect more listings: Buyers have been patiently waiting for good product to hit the market and that’s finally beginning to happen. There are hundreds more listings going live every week and we can expect to see this continue through probably mid-Summer (which is the normal trend). 

Ain’t nothing wrong with a slower pace: There is no mistaking a slower pace of price growth lately. As you can see when looking at the annual median price in the Sacramento region, the market has clearly decelerated. This doesn’t mean it’s declining. It just means growth has been slower compared with the beginning of this real estate cycle. My observation is sometimes the real estate community struggles to admit this because people buy into the idea that you can only say good things about the market. But markets don’t always increase and they aren’t always aggressive either.

Okay, I need to mention one thing. When we look at the past quarter of sales for each respective year we actually see a more robust quarter this past year. Does this mean the market is starting to accelerate? Well, that could be, and mortgage rates could certainly be an x-factor here. But one thing we do need to consider is last year the market was REALLY dull, so I wouldn’t put too much stock for now in comparing today’s numbers with last year. My advice? Let’s get a few more months of data before drawing conclusions.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 82 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Do you have any analogies to add to my list above? What stands out to you about the market right now? What are you seeing out there? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Share:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2020 sales stats, Appraisal, Appraiser, El Dorado County, House Appraisal, House Appraiser, inventory, low mortgage rates, Placer County, reagional sacramento appraisal blog, Sacramento County, Sacramento regional real estate market, sales volume

  • Go to page 1
  • Go to page 2
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Connect with Ryan

 Facebook Twitter LinkedIn YouTube Instagram

Subscribe to Weekly Post

* indicates required

Search this site

Blog Categories

  • Appraisal Stuff (408)
  • Bankruptcy (3)
  • Divorce (4)
  • Estate Settlement (6)
  • FHA Appraisal Articles (56)
  • Internet (53)
  • Market Trends (486)
  • Photos from the Field (126)
  • Property Taxes (70)
  • Random Stuff (231)
  • Resources (566)
  • Videos (161)

Blog Archives: 2009 – 2021

Lundquist Appraisal Links

  • Appraisal Order Form
  • Appraisal Website
  • Rancho Cordova Appraiser Website
  • Sacramento Appraisal Blog Sitemap
  • Sacramento Real Estate Appraiser Facebook Page
  • Twitter: Sacramento Appraiser (@SacAppraiser)
  • YouTube: Sacramento Appraiser Channel

Most Recent Posts

  • The housing market feels like chaos
  • An explosion of appraisal waivers. Is that good or bad?
  • Skyrocketing prices aren’t happening everywhere
  • The housing market feels like a crazy auction
  • Are appraisers keeping up with rapid price growth?
  • How much have prices risen since the bottom of the market?
  • How long can this market keep going?
  • What is your housing persona?
  • Rapid price growth & the Gilmore Girls next door
  • Are first-time buyers targeting 2-4 unit properties?

Disclaimer

First off, thank you for being here. Now let's get into the fine print. The material and information contained on this website is the copyrighted property of Ryan Lundquist and Lundquist Appraisal Company. Content on this website may not be reproduced or republished without prior written permission from Ryan Lundquist.

Please see my Sharing Policy on the navigation bar if you are interested in sharing portions of any content on this blog.

The information on this website is meant entirely for educational purposes and is not intended in any way to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or any sort of value conclusion for a loan, litigation, tax appeal or any other potential real estate or non-real estate purpose. The material found on this website is meant for casual reading only and is not intended for use in a court of law or any other legal use. Ryan will not appear in court in any capacity based on any information posted here. For more detailed market analysis to be used for an appraisal report or any appraisal-related purpose or valuation consulting, please contact Ryan at 916-595-3735 for more information.

There are no affiliate links on this blog, but there are three advertisements. Please do your homework before doing business with any advertisers as advertisements are not affiliated with this blog in any way. Two ads are located on the sidebar and one is at the bottom of each post. The ads earn a minor amount of revenue and are a simple reward for providing consistent original content to readers. If you think the ads interfere with your blog experience or the integrity of the blog somehow, let me know. I'm always open to feedback. Thank you again for being here.

Copyright © 2021 Sacramento Appraisal Blog