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Placer County real estate trends

It’ll never sell that high (but then it did)

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There’s no way it’s going to sell that high. Have you ever thought that in real estate? Well, let’s talk about a property that many said would never sell at $4.1M, but then it did. I definitely have some takeaways about this lofty condo in Downtown Sacramento, and I hope non-locals will relate to the commentary. Then for those interested I have a huge market update below. Any thoughts?

A few things on my mind about this one sale:

1) Outlier: This sale is a total outlier. It is a big deal, but it’s also completely disconnected from the rest of the market. Can you tell based on the graph?

2) Thin history above $4,000,000: There have literally only been four residential sales ever above $4M in Sacramento County. EVER. So yes, it’s huge news to have a condo close this high, but at the same time let’s not think everything is now worth four million. Here are the sales:

a) Governor’s Mansion in Carmichael in 2004 at $4.1M
b) Sierra Oaks home in 2013 at $4.7M
c) Elk Grove estate in 2005 at $4.6M (sold $1.3M in 2011)
d) Downtown Condo at $4.1M

3) Lamborghini & Camry: Some have said things like, “I can’t afford the market any longer.” But this one “lone ranger” sale isn’t the new comp for everything in town. It’s tempting for sellers to price higher now, but it’s not like someone ten miles away is going to pay more at the $300,000 level because of a multi-million dollar condo sale. If my neighbor bought a Lamborghini, that doesn’t all of a sudden mean I have to pay more for a Camry…

4) An emerging market: There is definitely an appetite for high-end condos in Sacramento, so let’s expect to see this niche market find more expression in coming time. Ultimately the sales office at the Kimpton Sawyer Hotel has done well so far to sell units far above what many locals imagined. Of course the eventual test for these properties will be to see what happens when they hit the resale market in coming years without the benefit of marketing from a Beverly Hills sales agency.

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Anything to add?

-—-—- Big monthly market update (absurdly long on purpose) ———–

The market feels very normal for the spring. Well, I guess what I mean is all the stats are normal, but buyers are pulling the trigger very quickly and we’re seeing multiple offers on just about anything that is priced correctly. One of the bigger stories is sales volume so far in the beginning of 2018 is up 5% in the region. In fact, we’ve seen the strongest start to the year since 2013. Buyers have been starving for more inventory, so they’re gobbling up anything in site as long as it’s not overpriced. But part of the growth in volume these past few months could also stem from some buyers trying to get a slice of real estate pie before interest rates rise.

New recap images: Last month I introduced recap images. Here’s round two, though this month my data from last year is less complete since I tore my knee a year ago (I’m all better now). Anyway, what do you think?

Two quick things:

1) Inventory is increasing: We’re starting to see inventory increase a bit. For years it did nothing but decline, but toward the end of last year it seemed to flatten out, and so far this year we’ve seen some slight upticks. Granted, inventory this past month was only up 3% in the region compared to the same time last year, but that’s better than being perpetually down every single month.

2) The wrong comps with new construction: With more new construction lately, it seems like some sellers are using brand new nearby homes as “comps” for their older homes. Let’s remember the new ones often sell with a hefty price premium, so they really don’t make adequate comps. My advice? Don’t get distracted by the brand new stuff. Try to find older sales that are similar rather than assuming buyers are going to pay the same amount as a new home.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 52 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 52 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What do you think of that $4.1M condo sale? What else are you seeing out there in the market? I’d love to hear your take.

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Addicted to low rates, sending 2x4s, and a market update

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The market feels addicted to low interest rates. So what’s going to happen when rates rise? Let’s travel back to the late 70s for some insight and consider a few thoughts. Then I have a huge local market update for those interested.

A few thoughts about interest rates:

1) Addicted: We have a market that feels addicted to low rates. I guess that’s understandable since rates have been hovering around 4% for the past 6 years. On one hand it seems silly that buyers would freak out about rates near 4.5% because that’s historically low, but at the same time the market is sensitive about rate changes because we’ve become accustomed (or addicted) to low rates. Let’s remember rate changes can make a bigger difference at lower prices too because they can more readily impact affordability.

2) They used to be 18%: Some people say, “You kids are so lucky because when I bought my first house the interest rate was 18%.” There’s some truth there and let’s be in tune with history, yet prices used to be substantially lower too. You bought at 18%, but the price was $112,000.

3) Not the only factor: What interest rates do can end up impacting affordability, sales volume, housing supply, and prices. Check out a deep article by Freddie Mac to read through some of the potential changes coming. Yet let’s remember interest rates are not the only factor for housing. There are many other layers of the market that end up influencing value. We can’t forget about the job market, economy, a housing shortage, financing, creative loans, new construction, cash investors, etc… In short, interest rates are a big factor for the market, but they are not the only factor either. One more thing. Nobody knows the future. While it looks like rates are going to be increasing more, we could be saying something entirely different next year.

When rates doubled from 1977 to 1981 (from Freddie Mac):

1) Mortgage origination fell by 40%.
2) Annual single family home sales volume dropped by 36%.
3) New construction dropped by 51%.

History teaches us a huge change in rates can absolutely sway the market. Obviously an uptick from 4% to 4.5% is not the same thing as 1977, but the effect then reminds us to keep an eye on mortgage origination, sales volume, and new construction (and prices).

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Anything to add?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

It’s starting to look like Spring. Prices are picking up, it took two less days to sell last month, and more listings are hitting the market. It was actually the strongest February of sales volume we’ve seen since 2013. The market has an aggressive feel with multiple offers (when properties are priced correctly), yet in some neighborhoods it almost seems like values have been a bit flat or subdued. Thus it’s a good reminder the market can feel aggressive sometimes without absolutely insane value increases. Keep in mind there are about 100 price reductions every day right now in MLS, and that means buyers are not willing to pay any price despite a housing shortage.

Sales volume is down (barely): There is lots of talk in the media about how sales volume is slumping nationally and is down 3% or more, but it’s only down 0.28% this year in the region compared to last year. It’s actually up from two years ago, which a big point in my mind. In Sacramento County sales volume is down nearly 1.5%, which is about where it’s been hovering lately. This isn’t a red flag for the market, but it would be if sales volume really started to slough. Moreover, knowing that rising interest rates can impact sales volume, this is important to watch over time.

The bottom vs. top: The bottom of the market has less inventory, more competition, and more upward pressure than the top. The highest prices above $1M have over a year’s worth of homes for sale. It’s actually fairly normal to have that much inventory at the high-end, though this month is a bit higher than the same time last year, so let’s keep watching that. Part of having so many listings at higher prices though is sellers are pricing at absurd levels that are totally disconnected from the market. It’s like everyone and their Mom wants to sell for $3M when very few sales in Sacramento fetch those types of prices.

Advice for sellers: Pay careful attention to similar properties that are actually selling in the neighborhood rather than overpriced listings. In other words, price according to the comps and listings that are getting into contract rather than listings that don’t really reflect the market. And don’t use price per sq ft to price your home either.

RENTS: I’ve been focusing more on rents and I’ll keep doing that if people like it. I have a rent folder in the download link below too (data from Yardi Matrix).  

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: How do you think rising rates will impact the market over time (if they do keep rising of course)? Anything I missed? I’d love to hear your take.

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Price ceilings & literal ceilings that are too low

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I have two types of ceilings on my mind. How do you know when a market begins to reach its price ceiling for the season? And how low can a ceiling be in a home and still be considered legitimate square footage by an appraiser?

I recently inspected a house where the ceiling was 6 feet 8 inches high. Is that tall enough to count? Is there such a thing as too low? Let’s talk about it. 

How low can a ceiling be? Lots of people think 8 feet is the minimum ceiling height because that’s a common height in most homes, but it’s actually 7 feet according to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI Z765). Technically ANSI says it’s okay to have a ceiling height at 6’4″ under beams though. Keep in mind sometimes a ceiling might have a downward slope like we see with a Tudor or the photo above. When ceilings slope really low, there is something called the “5 foot rule” where the appraiser can count any space above 5 feet as living area as long as over 50% of the ceiling area is at least 7 feet.

When appraisers observe houses with ceilings below 7 feet, they’ll typically email the lender and say, “Hey there, this property has a ceiling less than 7 feet, and that doesn’t cut it according to ANSI standards. How do you want me to proceed?” After hearing that there’s a good chance the lender might not want to do the loan. Of course a property with low ceilings can still have value and even be appraised, but it may need to be marketed to an investor paying cash instead of a buyer using conventional or FHA financing.

Market price ceilings: Switching ceiling gears, how would you know if the market was beginning to reach its price ceiling for the season? That’s a great question to ask since many markets in the United States are going to be doing just that over the next couple of months. As I said in June, the Sacramento market is beginning to slow down even though we don’t see it in the sales stats yet. This doesn’t mean the market is cold or values are declining. It only means we are seeing subtle clues to a slowing market as high altitude values from the spring are at the beginning of a downward seasonal descent.

Umm, please don’t say the market is slowing!!!

At times it’s not very popular in the real estate community to publicly talk about the market slowing, but it’s something that happens nearly every single year. I realize we have big headlines about the market being “hot”, and it really is in many way, but catching the symptoms of a slowing market is key for valuing properties (and it’s good for clients). I suggest starting to watch price reductions more closely because they’ve been increasing lately in Sacramento and this is one of the first signs of a slowing market. Also pay attention to days on market increasing in coming time along with some of the other factors above (including the sales to list price ratio). I highly recommend asking other real estate professionals the question, “What are you seeing out there?” It’s amazing the type of insight you can glean from title reps, loan officers, appraisers, agents, escrow officers, etc…

I hope that was helpful or interesting. Any thoughts?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

Values showed an increase again last month and sales volume was very steady compared to the past few Junes. Overall most price metrics were up 1-2% from last month, though the month prior they increased 2-4%. Inventory is still down about 20% from last year, and properties have been selling like hotcakes in only 9 days (that’s the median). In case you wanted to know, most price metrics are up about 7% from last year. One interesting thing to watch is FHA sales are starting to sag more noticeably as they ticked down a few percentage points to 21% of the market in Sacramento County. Granted, 1 in 5 sales is still quite a bit of FHA volume, but last year we were seeing 1 in 4 sales go FHA. It’s easy to think this means first-time buyers are getting squeezed out by Bay Area buyers, but that’s not really the case. My sense is the downtrend is due to more would-be FHA buyers using competitive conventional products instead of FHA. Lastly, it’s worth noting Curbed has a glowing article about Sacramento (cool that they quoted me too). This article is starting to go viral and it’s bound to get many locals pumped on how “hot” the Sacramento market is. Yet despite being “hot” in many ways, let’s remember to look for the signs of a slowing market because we have to realize the market usually hits its seasonal price ceiling right about now (but we won’t see it in the sales stats for a while). I could go on and on with words, but let me share some graphs to show the market visually.

DOWNLOAD 74 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Sacramento County graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

Sacramento Regional graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

Placer County graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

DOWNLOAD 74 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Any low ceiling stories to share? Is the price ceiling for the season just about here? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

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That awkward moment when the market changes

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Have you ever met someone who looked really good on the outside, but the inside was a different story? That’s sort of like the housing market right now. Sales stats look super attractive, but if we really consider listings and other metrics we begin to see a different story. The market is slowing. Since it’s not always easy to explain that, here are a few analogies to help describe how important it is to look beyond just sales to gauge the temperature of the market. Then for those interested, let’s take a deep look at Sacramento trends. Any thoughts?

Examples to explain the market when it begins to slow:

  1. First Date: A first date is all about putting your best foot forward, and that’s exactly why we usually need more than just one good date to make up our mind about someone (gotta be sure the person is not psycho). The same thing happens with real estate. Shining sales stats are like a first date because they lure us in and make us feel good. But we can’t really judge an entire market just by the sales. We need to consider listings and other metrics too.
  2. Taking the Temperature in the Shade: If you take the temperature in the shade in the summer, you’re going to get a much different reading. The same thing happens in real estate where we can get the wrong temperature of the market if we only focus on sales instead of listings and other factors.
  3. Judging by one Tweet: These days it’s easy to judge a person by one tweet instead of looking at their wider body of work (their life). The same thing happens in real estate when we only look at sales instead of listings and other stats. If our vision is too narrow, we might not see what the market is actually doing.
  4. Pregnancy Test: I asked my author wife for an analogy and she said the market is like a pregnancy test (I wouldn’t ever have thought of that). You can technically be pregnant but an over-the-counter test won’t tell you that for a couple of weeks. Similarly, the market may have changed, but we may not see a price difference in sales for a month or two. But the change is definitely there when we look at listings and other metrics.
  5. Pokemon: I’m just kidding. I won’t go there.

In a small way, I hope this was helpful. It’s very powerful to explain the market in different ways. Any other analogies to share?

—————– For those interested, here is my big market update  —————–

Big monthly market update post - sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased from 123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 80+ graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: On paper the market has been hot. We’ve seen all the normal stuff like price increases, slightly higher sales volume in 2016, and sparse housing inventory. If you didn’t know, the median price in Sacramento County is 105% higher than it was in 2012 and 16% lower than the peak in 2005. Distressed sales actually reached their lowest level since 2009 last quarter too. Cash sales volume has been hovering at a normal level while FHA sales volume has been declining. Overall the market is still really competitive, but it’s starting to turn. Keep in mind it’s common for real estate to lose some steam around mid-Summer. While the sales stats don’t show it yet, we see a slower market with the sales-to-list price ratio declining last month from the previous month, it took the same amount of average days to sell for the past two months in the region, and there has been a slightly more optimistic tone among real estate professionals about buyers getting into contract. While it felt utterly hopeless to get an offer accepted a few months ago in certain price ranges, it is starting to feel slightly more hopeful based on feedback from agents. Moreover, it seems like there has been growing price resistance lately (particularly at the higher end of the market). The market has been price sensitive all year as buyers are not fooled by absurdly high prices, but the sensitivity seems more heightened right now.

Sacramento County:

  1. FHA volume has been about 24% of the market (it was nearly 27% of the market last year at the same time).
  2. Cash volume is roughly the same as it was last year at the same time (around 16% of the market).
  3. It took an average of 25 days to sell a home last month, which is 2 days less than the previous month (and 5 less days compared to last year).
  4. REOs were only 2.9% of all sales last quarter (lowest level in years).
  5. Sales volume is up very slightly Q2 2016 compared to Q2 2015.
  6. There is only 1.38 months of housing supply in Sacramento County, which is 14% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased by 3.5% last month.
  8. The median price is 13% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft increased by 1.4% last month.
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 9.7% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

inventory - June 2016 - by home appraiser blog

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog REOs and Short Sales in Sacramento - 1 inventory in sacramento county Since 2013 - part 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Cash & FHA sales in sacramento county

median price context in sacramento county price metrics since 2015 in sacramento county - look at all

june market in sacramento - by sacramento regional appraisal blog 2

layers of the market in sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog

Bottom of the Market in Sacramento

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. It took the same amount of time to sell last month as it did the previous month (though 3 less days to sell this June compared to last June).
  2. Sales volume is up slightly in 2016 compared to 2015.
  3. Cash volume is about the same this year (16% of the market for Q2).
  4. FHA volume is down 7.5% so far this year in the region.
  5. The sales to list price ratio was 98% in the region last month.
  6. There is 1.6 months of housing supply in the region right now, which is 13.5% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased 3.6% last month from the previous month.
  8. The median price is 11% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft increased by nearly 1% last month.
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 8.9% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

sales volume 2015 vs 2016 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

sacramento region volume - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog interest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog - market median price and inventory in sacramento regional market 2013 median price sacramento placer yolo el dorado county Regional Inventory - by Sacramento regional appraisal blog Regional market median price - by home appraiser blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. It took 4 less days to sell a house last month than the previous month (and 3 less days than last year at the same time).
  2. Sales volume was up about 1% in June 2016 compared to last June and is down slightly for the year (about 2%).
  3. FHA sales were 17% of all sales last month and cash sales were 13% of all sales last month.
  4. There is 1.7 months of housing supply in Placer County right now.
  5. Housing inventory is 8.5% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  6. The median price increased 0.5% from the previous month and is up 7% from last year at the same time.
  7. The average price per sq ft was $212 last month (was $200 last year at the same time).
  8. The average price per sq ft is up 1.4% from the previous month and 6% from last year at the same time.
  9. Bank owned sales were only 1% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were 1.9% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog number of listings in PLACER county - 2016 Placer County housing inventory - by home appraiser blog Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

DOWNLOAD 80+ graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Question: Any other market insight you’d like to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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