Where would you say the real estate market is “doing pretty good” in the Sacramento area? What does that even mean in a post-bubble-bursting context? Take a look at the image below to get a hint of what the real estate market has been like in places like Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova, Davis, Fair Oaks, Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Folsom and El Dorado Hills among others.
Citywide stats are only so useful because sub-markets within a particular city might have drastically different figures. For example, Land Park and Pocket / Greenhaven will not show the same trends as the entire City of Sacramento mentioned above. Without making this post exhaustive though, let’s take this one indicator for what it’s worth. Overall any neighborhood under 30% in REOs and Short Sales would really be classified as “doing pretty good” for the current market. Despite 30% still representing 1 in 3 sales being distressed, it’s a fairly low percentage for a city or neighborhood. Even 50% seems to be a fairly common stat for areas that locals often think of as more “move up” kind of places. Many cities and neighborhoods have a foreclosure/short sale rate between 60-70%. It’s amazing to think that is normative, but it is definitely the case – particularly in cities where there was ample new construction during the boom years.
What do you think the information says about the health of the market? How does it impact real estate to have such a high percentage of distressed sales? What opportunities and threats exist in the current real estate market?
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Sometimes when thinking of property value in the Sacramento area, I think of the “steep grade” signs on the side of the road. Most trend graphs for the market over the past several years end up looking something like these signs.
