real estate trends

Peaking prices & rosy real estate narratives

September 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

People tend to freak out when prices slow down. What’s going on? Is the market crashing? But every year around this time we start to see the market soften. Let’s talk about this, and then for those interested I have a big market update.

1) Slowing is normal: Prices have likely crested for the season in many areas of the country. What I mean there’s a good chance we’ve more or less seen the highest prices we’re going to see for 2019 as the market is starting to show its descent from the high-altitude spring season. This happens EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. It doesn’t mean it’s not competitive either. It just means it starts to take longer to sell, the number of sales begins to shrink, and prices tend to taper.

2) The rosy real estate narrative: It can be a struggle for many people when hearing the market is slowing. It’s like we are only allowed to talk about real estate in glowing terms and our talking points must fit into a rosy narrative. So when there’s any hint of news that sounds even slightly negative, it feels like something is wrong. What do you mean prices aren’t going up? Wait, they’re softening? Does that mean the market is about to turn? Remember, just as it’s not always sunny outside, real estate isn’t always burning hot either.

3) The mistake of misinterpreting slowness: On the other side of the coin we tend to see lots of doom and gloom conversations around this time of year as the market softens. My advice? Know what is normal for the fall season so you can assess whether it’s a normal seasonal slowing or something more. In other words, let the stats speak to you and inform your real estate narrative. Otherwise you may be swayed by sensational headlines or get sucked into a real estate culture that sometimes struggles when things aren’t ultra-positive.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Now for those interested, let’s talk about Sacramento trends. If I had to sum up the market I’d say things have felt a little more normal lately. Granted, low mortgage rates are like a steroid helping the market feel normal, but nonetheless stats have been about what we’d expect for this time of year – which is unlike the dark season we experienced last year at the same time.

DOWNLOAD 80+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Stats feel mostly normal
California will now have rent control
Year-over-year price growth is stronger
Don’t be like Michael Jordan
Volume was down slightly in August
Listings are seriously anemic
Pendings are strong right now
Sales volume is down 9% this year
The market is slowing for the season

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal and cresting prices: We’re seeing about what we’d expect to see right now with prices starting to soften. I’d say prices have likely crested for the season. It’s possible we could see some price metrics bounce up slightly due to low mortgage rates, but that usually doesn’t happen beyond August much. Besides, any sales from September really reflect older pendings from July and August anyway.

Rent control: Statewide rent control in California was just passed by the legislature. There is going to be a learning curve for the real estate community on how to deal with this from a value perspective too. We may need years to really understand the effect on the housing market. Keep in mind this only applies to 2-unit+ properties built prior to 1995 (it does not apply to single family homes). Also, this doesn’t mean rents won’t increase either because landlords can legally raise rents 5% plus inflation each year.

14th bubble anniversary: The real estate “bubble” popped fourteen years ago in Sacramento in August 2005. In other parts of the country the market started to turn in 2007, but we started to tank in 2005. So happy anniversary, I guess.

Michael Jordan’s house: In 2012 Michael Jordan’s house was put on the market for $29 million and after seven years it still hasn’t sold. It’s now listed for about $15M. This just goes to show buyers aren’t willing to pay any price – even if the owner is famous. This is a great object lesson for sellers today who are prone to think they can command whatever price they want since inventory is low. Nope. Buyers are extremely sensitive to paying the right price and they’re more informed than ever. If you want to sell you need to price it right. Bottom line.

Slowing doesn’t mean it’s cold: The market isn’t slow, but it’s starting to show signs of slowing for the season as it’s taking longer to sell, most price metrics declined from July to August, and sales volume looks to be starting to slough for the year as it normally does. This doesn’t mean the market is cold though. Not at all. It’s just not as hot as it was during the spring. Over the next month I’d expect the market to heat up a bit though since kids are back in school and vacations are done. There is usually a last run on the market before the holidays arrive.

Almost 8 years of price increases: In the current real estate price cycle we’ve had about eight years of price growth so far. When I say eight, some people correct me with seven, but that’s not accurate if you count every year since 2012. I also have a chart like this for Placer, Yolo, & El Dorado County in my monthly download.

Stronger price growth: Prices are up about 4-5% from last year, which is a change from a more subtle 2-3% we’ve been seeing for most of the year. What’s going on? Part of the growth could stem from low mortgage rates fueling buyers to play the game, but let’s remember too last year was a dull time in the market, which means it’s going to be easier on paper this year to see glowing stats (more on that below). Let’s not make too much of one month of data.

Really sparse listings lately: The number of listings has been noticeably down. I mean, we’re seeing multiple hundreds fewer per month these days. Technically housing inventory as a metric is on the lower side of normal these days, but there have been fewer listings hitting the market (remember, inventory as a metric measures the relationship between listings and sales rather than the number of actual listings). I’ve been thinking about what’s going on here for a number of months and I’ll admit I don’t have it all figured out. Part of it of course is pendings have been stronger, which naturally means there’s fewer available listings. And maybe some would-be sellers refinanced into a lower rate rather than selling. I don’t think this is the byproduct of the iBuyer model with so many listings selling privately instead of coming to the market, but some properties certainly sold this way. Mostly I would guess this is related to sellers feeling uncertain about the market. Just as buyers had their moment last year where they backed off the market a bit, maybe sellers are feeling it’s their turn? There could be other reasons. This is something I’ll keep watching to understand over time. I’d love to hear your take here.

Warning about glowing stats ahead: Hey stat nerds, this is important. Over the next few months if we have fairly normal numbers they could end up looking glorious since last year the market was in a slump. If you remember, when mortgage rates shot up in 2018 buyers began to put their foot on the brakes and it felt like there was a dark cloud looming for about six months. Anyway, when you’re pulling stats over these next two quarters, just remember the numbers might technically look glowing this year compared with last year. My advice? Take stats with a grain of salt and compare multiple years of data rather than give laser focus to last year.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market continues to show price growth, but the rate of change is slowing. This sounds offensive to some because the narrative in real estate is often that the market is always blazing hot. But let’s remember “slow” is not a dirty word in real estate.

2) A QUICK RECAP: All year prices have shown a modest uptick at about 1-3%, but this past month the stats look a bit sexier. Part of this could be due to lower mortgage rates, but some of it could be due to the market showing weakness last year (which helps pad today’s stats).

3) VOLUME SLUMP: Volume was lower last month compared to August 2018, but not by much. The bigger story though is volume is down in the region by 9% over the past year. Moreover, volume has been down in the region for 14 out of the last 15 months. Overall despite a lower year of volume, it’s still not outside of a normal low range (see 2014 and 2015).

4) PRICES SOFTENED IN AUGUST: The market generally slowed in August in terms of price growth. This is why I’m saying prices feel a bit flat (even though they’re up from last year). This is fairly normal for the time of year, and sometimes we see prices bounce up and down as summer comes to a close. Stay tuned. Let’s keep watching.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 80+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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Who is coming & going? A huge question to ask in real estate

May 29, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 31 Comments

I said goodbye to some family members this past weekend. Like many Californians they’re leaving the state. It’s probably not surprising to hear, but California lately has been having more residents leave than come. Of course other states are feeling this too because they’re now welcoming (or not) West Coast refugees. Let’s talk about this. Here are a few things on my mind.

Why are people moving? People move for lots of reasons, but affordability is a huge one. We see lots of Baby Boomers wanting to take their California cash elsewhere to retire and live the good life. We also see young families move to lower-priced areas in hopes of putting down roots and even buying a home. But it’s not just about finances. Some residents are looking for a different lifestyle, less traffic, a better job market, more space, more land, and a different business and political climate.

Cashing out at the top: In coming time I expect we’ll see more migration if sellers think the top of the price market is near. I suspect we’ll see this dynamic in the Bay Area too, though they may eye a lower-priced Sacramento instead of out-of-state.

Changing markets: Migration can change a local real estate market in the obvious way of increasing prices and tightening supply, but it can also spur new construction and commercial development. We have to remember builders sometimes even cater their product to buyers coming from out-of-town. This is why locals sometimes look at a project and say, “Who can afford this?” Well, the answer might be wealthy out-of-towners.

DATA SOURCES I’M WATCHING:

1) Local publications: I’m digesting what the Sacramento Bee, Sacramento Business Journal, and Comstock’s Magazine have to say about trends. Here’s a 2018 piece from SacBee that states locals moved most often to Reno, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Seattle, & Austin. I don’t have updated stats yet, but I’m guessing Boise might make this list at some point. Here’s a piece from SacBiz talking about general migration issues. Additionally, the Greater Sacramento Economic Council is essential since they focus heavily on Bay Area migration.

2) Word on the street: What is the real estate community saying? Where are people coming from? And where are they leaving to? These are often clues what is happening in the trenches of escrows. I saw a Realtor recently provide a workshop on how to move to Idaho too, and that’s certainly a reflection of the times (and forward thinking).

3) National publications & data: I’m paying attention to studies from Redfin, Zillow, and other organizations. I’m also keen on articles discussing US residents migrating to the middle of the country. Lots of these studies and articles of course pull data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Here is some research from the Legislative Anaylist’s Office (this is a couple years old but some of the best stuff I’ve seen).

4) Moving companies: One way to get a sense of migration patterns is to listen to moving companies. For instance, SF Gate published a piece a few months back stating more people took a one-way U-Haul trip to Sacramento and Roseville from the Bay Area than any other location last year. Newspapers tend to publish stats like this, so it’s not like you have to go read studies. Here’s a sampling of migration reports though from Atlas Van Lines, United Van Lines, and North American Moving Services.

WIN A SIGN FOR MOVING DAY

When my family moved out of town I made an “Idaho or Bust” sign so we could take pictures on moving day. It was pretty cool for photos, so I made some more signs for locals and real estate agents to give away. In the next few days or so I’ll roll out a simple contest to win a sign on my Facebook page, so be sure to check it out. I’ll keep the contest open for a week or so most likely.

APPLICATION STEP: Last but not least, it doesn’t mean much if we acknowledge a trend without doing something about it. So here are some questions. I shared these a few months back, and they are definitely relevant in this conversation.

QUESTIONS FOR REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS
Who are my clients going to be over the next few years?
What are my clients going to need from me?
What skills do I need to add to be ready for the future?
Who is coming to the market?
Who is leaving the market?
Who is going to be participating in the future market?
What steps do I need to take to position myself for the future?
Where can I meet future clients?

VIDEO MARKET UPDATE: Here’s a video market update including lots of cool stats on the million dollar market. Enjoy if you wish.

I hope this was helpful.

Questions: How have you seen migration patterns affect the real estate market? What are the pluses and minuses? What are you seeing happen in your area? I’d love to hear your take.

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Is the market good or bad right now?

March 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 33 Comments

People ask all the time. Is the market good or bad? I have some quick thoughts and then a huge market update for those interested.

The truth: The market isn’t always good or always bad. What I mean is it’s either good or bad depending on whether you can move, sell, buy, or invest. At times we get so focused on what prices are going to do that we forget to think this way. Remember, no matter what prices do in the future, the market will still be bad or good for various people.

College Admissions Analogy: Real estate is sort of like getting into college. It’s good if you have the grades and financing, but bad without a high GPA (or rich parents who can bribe school officials). Too soon? 🙂

The big point: I don’t say this to gloss over prices seeming to be closer to the top of a real estate cycle. I’m just saying sometimes we label a market good or bad without digging deeper. Who is it good or bad for? Who are the players in the market? Who will become the players if the market changes?

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

The market slumped during the second half of 2018, and now it’s an interesting spot. Let’s talk about it.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Pendings were fairly normal for February
Sales volume has slumped for 9 months
We’re starting to see prices tick up
I’m now publishing El Dorado County stats
Most metrics are doing what we’d expect for the spring
This post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee.

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here’s some of the bigger topics to consider right now.

That weird place of spring: We’re in a place in the market where a hotter seasonal trend is happening, but we don’t quite see it in the sales stats yet. Let’s remember sales from February tell us more about what the market used to be like in December and early January when these homes got into contract. So we have to look to the listings and pendings right now to understand the market.

It feels kinda normal-ish: It’s felt like a somewhat normal spring lately. We’ve seen prices tick up, multiple offers on many listings (if they’re priced well), it’s taking less time to get into contract, inventory is going down, etc… We’ve basically been seeing all the stuff we’d expect to see in the spring. Of course the real test is whether sales volume will be normal in March, April, and May, but we just don’t know that yet.

Dude, call the market already: Some people want to know definitively what the market is going to do in 2019, but we don’t have enough information yet. Besides, interest rates went down, and that’s like injecting a steroid into the market. So in some senses we have to wait until this steroid wears off.

Flattening rents: We’ve seen rents flatten lately. They’re still up, but the rate of increase is not as aggressive as it used to be.

The market isn’t slow, but it’s slowing: I get a little pushback when I say the market is slowing because the spring has felt more competitive. Here’s the thing. We’re having a hotter spring, but in the bigger picture of the market it’s just not as aggressive as it used to be. I think Barry Habib’s analogy says it perfectly. It’s like the market was driving 80 mph and now it’s driving 30 mph. In other words, we’re still seeing forward price progress, but it’s not 2013 anymore. If the stats over these next few months say differently of course, then I’ll change my tune based on new information.

Less offers (but actually more): Multiple offers are down about 13% in the region this year compared to last year, but the number of multiple offers actually increased from January to February. But that’s normal for spring, so I wouldn’t write home over it. The takeaway? Buyers, you need to bring a strong offer. Don’t think you are running the show. You’ve gained power from last year, but you’re not in charge.

Nine months of slump: Sales volume has slumped for the past nine months in the region. This means the number of sales was lower compared to the same exact month the previous year. In short, if this doesn’t change over time and get back on track, then we could be talking about the market starting to embark on a different trend. This past month volume was down about 7% in the region, which is much better than over 20% in December.

Normal pendings & steroids: Last month pending sales looked fairly normal, which suggests the market is trying to flirt with normalcy for the spring compared to the slump of volume we had over the past 9 months. What’s making the change? It’s most likely due to interest rates declining. Low rates are like a steroid for the market. Remember, if pendings were fairly normal in January and February, that could lead to fairly normal sales volume in March & April. But let’s see how it shakes out. We don’t have those stats yet.

Not many listings yet: There’s not much on the market yet, but that’s fairly normal for the time of year. Historically listings hit their stride between April and the end of summer, so we can expect lots more in coming time. For now inventory is declining, and that’s normal for the time of year.

Final thought before the graphs: In closing, the market is in an interesting spot. It feels like it’s juggling uncertainty from last year with a striving for normalcy today. We only have two months of data and we need to keep watching to see how this market is going to emerge.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SPRING GETTING HOT: The market is heating up for 2019 and here’s proof. We’re seeing price changes, lower inventory, and increased sales volume.

2) SLOWING MOMENTUM: Despite the heating, stats show the market is slowing down when we look at the rate of change by year. Looking at monthly, quarterly, and annual numbers helps give a balanced view of things. As a side note it’s going to be interesting to see price metrics these next few months.

3) SALES VOLUME SLUMP: It’s important to look at sales volume in a few ways to get the bigger picture. Here it is by month and year.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

February volume down 10.5%
Volume is down 5.2% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

February volume down 6.7%
Volume is down 6.6% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

February volume was up 13.3%
Volume is down 6.8% over the past 12 months

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

February volume was up 23%
Volume is down 7% over the past 12 months

NOTE: El Dorado County monthly stats vary significantly. I wouldn’t put much weight on volume being down 23%.

4) LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR: Here’s a comparison of last year compared to the same time this year. What do you see?

Quick note on how NOT to use my content: Please use these images in blog posts or on social media, but don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I recently saw someone remove my blog link on an image. Look, I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Now here are a bunch of images. Please enjoy.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

NOTE: This is the beginning of sharing more for El Dorado County (as long as people want it). What type of graphs would you like to see?

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? Which metrics above stand out to you the most? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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An underrated metric & slumping volume

December 12, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 24 Comments

There’s a stat that doesn’t get much love. It’s not sexy, nobody really writes about it in the newspapers, and most people don’t even know what it is. But it’s really important because it helps us tell how hot or cool the market is. I’m talking about the sales to list price ratio. Oops, did I lose you? I know, a topic like this sounds painful, but let’s consider why this actually matters. Then if you’re interested I have a huge local market update below to discuss slumping volume and slowing momentum. Any thoughts?

What is it? The sales price to original list price ratio is one of the best ways to gauge the temperature of the market. It’s the relationship between the final sales price and the original list price, and it’s expressed as a percentage.

If we only had one stat: We could likely get a pretty good understanding of how hot or cold a market is based on this metric alone. So without looking at price, inventory, or sales volume, if we simply saw a market had a 100% sales to original list price ratio, it tells us properties on average are selling for what they listed for. That’s a sign the market is hot or at least buyers are willing to pay what sellers are putting out there.

When we see this ratio moving up or down, it helps us get an idea of what the market is doing. For instance, over the past six months the sales price to original list price ratio has declined in Sacramento County, which tells us the gap has been growing between what sellers are asking and what they are actually getting. The most recent ratio is 96%, and that means on average properties are selling 4% lower than their original list price. That’s a powerful stat, right?

Not being anal, but ORIGINAL matters: It can make a huge difference if we’re looking at the original list price or the most recent list price.

Looking at the most recent list price makes it seem like the market isn’t cooling all that much. After all, a 99% sales to list price ratio still sounds pretty good. Yet this stat hides the real trend that properties on average are actually selling 4% lower than their original price. Thus if we’re not careful we can totally misunderstand the market despite good intentions. That’s sobering, right?

The “Bubble” years:

Right now 96% feels dull, but imagine 87%. Yikes!

Action Step: With so much talk about the market softening these days, it’s a good idea to pay attention to lots of different metrics – and especially the sales to original list price ratio. Keep in mind if the ratio isn’t available through MLS, it can always be run manually by dividing the final sales price into the original list price. For instance, all sales in Sacramento County this month totaled $512M while the original list price for all these sales totaled $533M. When I divide $512M into $533M I get 0.96 (or 96%).

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Dull is a perfect word to describe this fall season. Actually really dull would be more accurate. Let’s consider some of the bigger themes happening right now in the market.

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A week longer: It’s been taking about a week longer to sell this year compared to last year in the region (technically 8 days).

Prices softening: Prices normally soften during the fall season. If you don’t believe me, look at the graphs below. This year the median price is down by 6% from the height of summer in the region. This doesn’t mean every neighborhood or price range is down by that much, but there is a more defined softening present this year in many price ranges. Sellers would be wise to price according to listings that are getting into contract rather than the highest sales from spring.

Sales volume slumping (please read): Sales volume is only down by 3% in the region this year, but the bigger stat is volume is down 11% over the past four months. This is definitely something we need to watch closely to see how it unfolds. In short, if volume rebounds to normal levels as 2019 begins, then we’ll chalk this slump up to a dull fall season like we had in 2014. If volume persists to decline though we’ll correctly call this a new direction for the market. So is this seasonal or not? I’ll tell you in a few months or so….

Momentum change: The rate of price changes has slowed lately. What I mean is in years past we’d regularly see 7-10% price increases when running stats, but over the past few months we’re starting to see only 2-6% increases instead. I talked about this last month, and the new stats show this same trend.

Ironic power exchange: There has been a power exchange lately where buyers have been gaining market share and sellers have been losing it. Of course we know sellers have struggled with being out of touch with the market as they’ve been prone to overprice. It’s been easy to point this out all year long, but ironically we’re starting to see something similar with some buyers thinking they’re completely running the show when in fact it’s not quite a full-fledged Buyers’ market.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?