Sacramento County

Is the market good or bad right now?

March 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 33 Comments

People ask all the time. Is the market good or bad? I have some quick thoughts and then a huge market update for those interested.

The truth: The market isn’t always good or always bad. What I mean is it’s either good or bad depending on whether you can move, sell, buy, or invest. At times we get so focused on what prices are going to do that we forget to think this way. Remember, no matter what prices do in the future, the market will still be bad or good for various people.

College Admissions Analogy: Real estate is sort of like getting into college. It’s good if you have the grades and financing, but bad without a high GPA (or rich parents who can bribe school officials). Too soon? 🙂

The big point: I don’t say this to gloss over prices seeming to be closer to the top of a real estate cycle. I’m just saying sometimes we label a market good or bad without digging deeper. Who is it good or bad for? Who are the players in the market? Who will become the players if the market changes?

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

The market slumped during the second half of 2018, and now it’s an interesting spot. Let’s talk about it.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Pendings were fairly normal for February
Sales volume has slumped for 9 months
We’re starting to see prices tick up
I’m now publishing El Dorado County stats
Most metrics are doing what we’d expect for the spring
This post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee.

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here’s some of the bigger topics to consider right now.

That weird place of spring: We’re in a place in the market where a hotter seasonal trend is happening, but we don’t quite see it in the sales stats yet. Let’s remember sales from February tell us more about what the market used to be like in December and early January when these homes got into contract. So we have to look to the listings and pendings right now to understand the market.

It feels kinda normal-ish: It’s felt like a somewhat normal spring lately. We’ve seen prices tick up, multiple offers on many listings (if they’re priced well), it’s taking less time to get into contract, inventory is going down, etc… We’ve basically been seeing all the stuff we’d expect to see in the spring. Of course the real test is whether sales volume will be normal in March, April, and May, but we just don’t know that yet.

Dude, call the market already: Some people want to know definitively what the market is going to do in 2019, but we don’t have enough information yet. Besides, interest rates went down, and that’s like injecting a steroid into the market. So in some senses we have to wait until this steroid wears off.

Flattening rents: We’ve seen rents flatten lately. They’re still up, but the rate of increase is not as aggressive as it used to be.

The market isn’t slow, but it’s slowing: I get a little pushback when I say the market is slowing because the spring has felt more competitive. Here’s the thing. We’re having a hotter spring, but in the bigger picture of the market it’s just not as aggressive as it used to be. I think Barry Habib’s analogy says it perfectly. It’s like the market was driving 80 mph and now it’s driving 30 mph. In other words, we’re still seeing forward price progress, but it’s not 2013 anymore. If the stats over these next few months say differently of course, then I’ll change my tune based on new information.

Less offers (but actually more): Multiple offers are down about 13% in the region this year compared to last year, but the number of multiple offers actually increased from January to February. But that’s normal for spring, so I wouldn’t write home over it. The takeaway? Buyers, you need to bring a strong offer. Don’t think you are running the show. You’ve gained power from last year, but you’re not in charge.

Nine months of slump: Sales volume has slumped for the past nine months in the region. This means the number of sales was lower compared to the same exact month the previous year. In short, if this doesn’t change over time and get back on track, then we could be talking about the market starting to embark on a different trend. This past month volume was down about 7% in the region, which is much better than over 20% in December.

Normal pendings & steroids: Last month pending sales looked fairly normal, which suggests the market is trying to flirt with normalcy for the spring compared to the slump of volume we had over the past 9 months. What’s making the change? It’s most likely due to interest rates declining. Low rates are like a steroid for the market. Remember, if pendings were fairly normal in January and February, that could lead to fairly normal sales volume in March & April. But let’s see how it shakes out. We don’t have those stats yet.

Not many listings yet: There’s not much on the market yet, but that’s fairly normal for the time of year. Historically listings hit their stride between April and the end of summer, so we can expect lots more in coming time. For now inventory is declining, and that’s normal for the time of year.

Final thought before the graphs: In closing, the market is in an interesting spot. It feels like it’s juggling uncertainty from last year with a striving for normalcy today. We only have two months of data and we need to keep watching to see how this market is going to emerge.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SPRING GETTING HOT: The market is heating up for 2019 and here’s proof. We’re seeing price changes, lower inventory, and increased sales volume.

2) SLOWING MOMENTUM: Despite the heating, stats show the market is slowing down when we look at the rate of change by year. Looking at monthly, quarterly, and annual numbers helps give a balanced view of things. As a side note it’s going to be interesting to see price metrics these next few months.

3) SALES VOLUME SLUMP: It’s important to look at sales volume in a few ways to get the bigger picture. Here it is by month and year.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

February volume down 10.5%
Volume is down 5.2% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

February volume down 6.7%
Volume is down 6.6% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

February volume was up 13.3%
Volume is down 6.8% over the past 12 months

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

February volume was up 23%
Volume is down 7% over the past 12 months

NOTE: El Dorado County monthly stats vary significantly. I wouldn’t put much weight on volume being down 23%.

4) LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR: Here’s a comparison of last year compared to the same time this year. What do you see?

Quick note on how NOT to use my content: Please use these images in blog posts or on social media, but don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I recently saw someone remove my blog link on an image. Look, I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Now here are a bunch of images. Please enjoy.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

NOTE: This is the beginning of sharing more for El Dorado County (as long as people want it). What type of graphs would you like to see?

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? Which metrics above stand out to you the most? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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Will buyers step on the gas or brakes in 2019?

January 10, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 27 Comments

It’s the big question right now. Will buyers put their foot back on the gas pedal or will they continue to put on the brakes? For the past couple quarters in many markets around the country buyers seemed to show some resistance to prices and back off the market a bit. So we saw more sluggish sales volume, and now we’re wondering if it’s going to continue into the new year. I have a few quick thoughts and then there’s a big monthly market update for those interested.

What will buyers do in 2019?

1) We need time: Just like a dating relationship needs time to figure out where it’s heading, we need a little space to see where the market is going to go. In the next 30-90 days especially we should get a better understanding of the direction of the market.

2) Interest rates are a band-aid: Mortgage rates are declining again and that can be a steroid to help buyers jump back into the game. During the second half of last year there was a strong negative reaction to rate hikes, so we’ll see if lower rates today can create a similarly strong positive reaction to propel buyers back into the market. But let’s remember low rates are really just a band-aid on a gaping wound. What I mean is low rates offer a temporary solution to create more sales right now without making any dent in the huge issues of a housing shortage and affordability.

3) What to watch: I have a couple quick recommendations for what to watch over the next few months. First of all, know what is normal for the spring market. What normally happens to things like sales volume, inventory, prices, days on market, etc..? Knowing what is normal can help us spot what is not normal. Secondly, I recommend keeping a close eye on listings. Is the market absorbing inventory? Are properties getting into contract? And is the number of pending sales normal or not? Remember, if pendings are anemic today, in a couple of months these properties will close escrow and show up as anemic sales volume. So by watching listings and pendings today we can get an idea of what sales might be like in a couple of months.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

There were two parts to the market in 2018. The first half of the year was fairly normal, but the second half definitely slumped. Here’s some things to consider right now.

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

The Camp Fire and volume: Sales volume slumped 11% these past two quarters, but December was particularly sluggish. In fact, it was the worst December in volume since 2007. Furthermore, in 20 years we’ve only seen two lower Decembers in the Sacramento Region. On one hand we figured volume would be anemic for December because it’s been more sluggish for two quarters, but then it was painfully low (25% lower). In short, if this is the actual trend, it could be a big issue if we start to see volume slump each month by 20%+. It would be a sign the market is starting to change even more dramatically. However, there could be more to the story. Let’s not forget the devastating Camp Fire in November. I mention this because in Sacramento the smoke from this tragic fire was with us for two weeks or more, and many locals stayed indoors because of the unhealthy air quality. Thus this could have led to less pending sales in November, which in turn led to less closed sales in December. I’m not saying the fire is the culprit behind our dismal December, but I think we have to at least entertain it could have been a factor to a certain extent. Yet to be fair if we see other areas of California without any fire influence show a similar dip, then I’ll be the first to say the fire didn’t have any effect. For now I think it’s okay to keep it on the table as a possibility, but at the same time let’s not blame the fire for the trend of slumping volume.

Slowing, blah, blah, blah: We’re all pretty tired of hearing words like softening, shifting, slowing, and slumping, but that’s the nature of the beast when the market changes. The trend graphs below show higher inventory, it took longer to sell these past few months, and prices sloughed as they normally do. Beyond sales volume being anemic, other metrics were fairly in line with what we’d expect to see during the fall. Though still we can easily say this fall was more dull than the past few years for sure.

Hiding behind hot annual stats: I posted some market recap images below and they’re glowing. When looking at annual stats most price metrics are up about 6-7%. Does that sound surprising since we’ve been talking so much about the market slowing? Here’s the deal. Annual stats are sexy, but when we look at the numbers over the past 3-6 months instead we see a much different trend. This just goes to show if we’re not careful we can end up hiding behind hot annual stats and missing a duller trend in front of us.

Less offers: Here’s an interesting way to see the market has changed. I know this is a bit obscure, but then again it’s a cool way to look at the market.

Momentum change: The rate of price changes has slowed lately. What I mean is in years past we’d regularly see 7-10% price increases when running stats, but over the past few months we’re starting to see only 3-6% increases instead. I talked about this recently, and fresh stats show this same trend.

Leftovers: Right now in early January we have a market of leftovers. The reality is lots of properties that didn’t sell during the fall are still on the market. Most of these homes are simply overpriced. If sellers only would’ve looked at similar sales and considered similar listings that are getting into contract it would’ve made all the difference. There are a decent number of pendings in most neighborhoods right now, but the pendings are priced right (and often in good condition).

Listen to the Listings: In case it’s useful I wrote an article in Comstock’s Magazine this month to talk about the importance of giving strong weight to listings. It’s not just about the sales.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) 2018 RECAP: What did the market do last year? Here’s some recap images.

2) LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR:

NOTE: Placer County had very few sales this December, so I wouldn’t put much weight at all on the price figures for this month. The median price actually increased quite a bit from November to December. My advice? Don’t read anything into this.

3) SALES VOLUME: It’s important to look at sales volume in a few ways to get the bigger picture. Here it is by month, quarter, and year. As an FYI, volume was down 11% during the second half of the year in the region.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

December volume down 24.9%
2018 volume down 3.4% (entire year)

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

December volume down 24.8%
2018 volume down 4.8% (entire year)

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

December volume down 19%
2018 volume down 6.9% (entire year)

4) SLOWING MOMENTUM: The stats show the market is slowing down when we look at the rate of change by year. Looking at monthly, quarterly, and annual numbers helps give a balanced view of things.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Do you think buyers are going to put their foot on the gas pedal or brake pedal in early 2019? What do you see happening in the market right now?

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An underrated metric & slumping volume

December 12, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 24 Comments

There’s a stat that doesn’t get much love. It’s not sexy, nobody really writes about it in the newspapers, and most people don’t even know what it is. But it’s really important because it helps us tell how hot or cool the market is. I’m talking about the sales to list price ratio. Oops, did I lose you? I know, a topic like this sounds painful, but let’s consider why this actually matters. Then if you’re interested I have a huge local market update below to discuss slumping volume and slowing momentum. Any thoughts?

What is it? The sales price to original list price ratio is one of the best ways to gauge the temperature of the market. It’s the relationship between the final sales price and the original list price, and it’s expressed as a percentage.

If we only had one stat: We could likely get a pretty good understanding of how hot or cold a market is based on this metric alone. So without looking at price, inventory, or sales volume, if we simply saw a market had a 100% sales to original list price ratio, it tells us properties on average are selling for what they listed for. That’s a sign the market is hot or at least buyers are willing to pay what sellers are putting out there.

When we see this ratio moving up or down, it helps us get an idea of what the market is doing. For instance, over the past six months the sales price to original list price ratio has declined in Sacramento County, which tells us the gap has been growing between what sellers are asking and what they are actually getting. The most recent ratio is 96%, and that means on average properties are selling 4% lower than their original list price. That’s a powerful stat, right?

Not being anal, but ORIGINAL matters: It can make a huge difference if we’re looking at the original list price or the most recent list price.

Looking at the most recent list price makes it seem like the market isn’t cooling all that much. After all, a 99% sales to list price ratio still sounds pretty good. Yet this stat hides the real trend that properties on average are actually selling 4% lower than their original price. Thus if we’re not careful we can totally misunderstand the market despite good intentions. That’s sobering, right?

The “Bubble” years:

Right now 96% feels dull, but imagine 87%. Yikes!

Action Step: With so much talk about the market softening these days, it’s a good idea to pay attention to lots of different metrics – and especially the sales to original list price ratio. Keep in mind if the ratio isn’t available through MLS, it can always be run manually by dividing the final sales price into the original list price. For instance, all sales in Sacramento County this month totaled $512M while the original list price for all these sales totaled $533M. When I divide $512M into $533M I get 0.96 (or 96%).

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Dull is a perfect word to describe this fall season. Actually really dull would be more accurate. Let’s consider some of the bigger themes happening right now in the market.

DOWNLOAD GRAPHS FOR YOUR SOCIAL MEDIA: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy my post verbatim).

A week longer: It’s been taking about a week longer to sell this year compared to last year in the region (technically 8 days).

Prices softening: Prices normally soften during the fall season. If you don’t believe me, look at the graphs below. This year the median price is down by 6% from the height of summer in the region. This doesn’t mean every neighborhood or price range is down by that much, but there is a more defined softening present this year in many price ranges. Sellers would be wise to price according to listings that are getting into contract rather than the highest sales from spring.

Sales volume slumping (please read): Sales volume is only down by 3% in the region this year, but the bigger stat is volume is down 11% over the past four months. This is definitely something we need to watch closely to see how it unfolds. In short, if volume rebounds to normal levels as 2019 begins, then we’ll chalk this slump up to a dull fall season like we had in 2014. If volume persists to decline though we’ll correctly call this a new direction for the market. So is this seasonal or not? I’ll tell you in a few months or so….

Momentum change: The rate of price changes has slowed lately. What I mean is in years past we’d regularly see 7-10% price increases when running stats, but over the past few months we’re starting to see only 2-6% increases instead. I talked about this last month, and the new stats show this same trend.

Ironic power exchange: There has been a power exchange lately where buyers have been gaining market share and sellers have been losing it. Of course we know sellers have struggled with being out of touch with the market as they’ve been prone to overprice. It’s been easy to point this out all year long, but ironically we’re starting to see something similar with some buyers thinking they’re completely running the show when in fact it’s not quite a full-fledged Buyers’ market.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from October to November?

3) What’s happening with sales volume?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

November volume down 6.5%
2018 volume down 1.4% (January to November)
Annual volume is down 2.1% (past 12 months)

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

November volume down 12.1%
2018 volume down 3.3% (January to November)
Annual volume is down 3.4% (past 12 months)

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

November volume down 9.3%
2018 volume down 5.6% (January to November)
Annual volume is down 6.1% (past 12 months)

4) MOMENTUM IS SLOWING:

November:

Past 90 Days:

Entire Year:

DOWNLOAD 100+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 100+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Do you ever use the sales price to list price ratio? Why or why not? What do you see happening in the market right now?

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Seven years of price increases & my blue kitchen island

December 3, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Let me get straight to it. I’m excited to share some new visuals. I’m geeking out because these new images help tell a compelling story of seven years of price increases. Whether you’re local or not, I hope you can dig these.

A FEW QUICK THINGS THIS WEEK:

1) Loan Limits: You probably heard conforming loan limits were raised for the third year in a row. This basically helps buyers continue to afford higher prices. I’m not saying that’s bad, but it would be nice if wage growth more than anything was helping people afford the market.

2) Sign the Petition for Appraisers: Last week I wrote about a move to start getting rid of appraisers. This is a big deal with huge implications for the housing market and future escrows. I co-wrote a petition through change.org and I want to ask you to please sign it. SIGN HERE.

3) Cool Graphing Link: On a lighter note, Freddie Mac launched a new graphing tool where you can make quick visuals and even compare different markets throughout the United States. Not every city is listed, but it’s worth checking out and getting lost for a few minutes.

4) My Blue Kitchen: I talked about blue being the rage in kitchens, and I guess my post inspired me. During Thanksgiving break I built a new kitchen island and we painted it blue. Woodworking is definitely a passion and it’s something I do to help keep my sanity. Anyway, this was a fun project and I wanted to share.

SEVEN YEARS ON ONE GRAPH (NEW VISUALS):

Here’s some images for four counties (Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, & El Dorado). What I like is we see price trends for seven years on one graph. It may take a moment to figure out how to digest these images, but look for changes in price and volume over time. So far people who have seen these have noted rising prices and definitely vanishing affordability. Keep in mind they don’t include most of December for 2018, and that could change the look slightly by next month.

What do you see?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

SACRAMENTO REGION:

PLACER COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

YOLO COUNTY:

SHARE THESE IMAGES: You are welcome to share any of these images in your newsletter, on social media, or on your blog, etc… See my sharing policy for details and 5 ways to share (please don’t copy my post verbatim).

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What do think of these images? Which ones do you like best? Any suggestions for improvement? I’d love to hear your take.

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Sacramento County

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