Advice for an increasing real estate market (and Sacramento trends)

When the market is flat, it’s easy to impress clients and look like a guru because of how accurate your values are. But when inventory shrinks, demand is off-the-hook, and the market shifts, it’s not always easy to nail value because things can change quickly in a short period of time. In light of the market increasing in value lately in many areas of the country, I thought it would be useful to offer some quick advice for dealing with increases. Then at the bottom of the post I have my ridiculously long Sacramento market update. I’d love to hear your take. Any thoughts?

increasing market advice for agents and appraisers - sacramento regional appraisal blog

Advice for Agents: When values are increasing, it’s crucial to pay careful attention when pulling comps before a listing. The tricky part in a “hot” market is it can be possible to get into contract at much higher levels than what is reasonable, so in a sense the agent has to really spend time weighing what a realistic value looks like before the listing hits the market. Keep in mind a lender’s appraiser is going to need to come up with a value that is supported by market data, reasonable for the neighborhood, and representative of the market. It’s easy to say, “The market is ‘hot’ and inventory is low, so I priced it higher,” but there really has to be support for the higher value. I recommend asking yourself the following questions and then talking clients through the answers.

  1. Is there support for value at the list price? (sales, pendings, listings, data)
  2. Is the list price reasonable? Does it make sense for the neighborhood?
  3. Would the market pay this price or would only one buyer pay this amount?

Advice for Appraisers: In an increasing market appraisers need to spend time figuring out how much the market has changed in recent time. In other words, if there has been upward value movement since the most recent sales got into contract, it could be very reasonable to give upward market adjustments to the comps. I suggest paying careful attention to competitive pendings, making market graphs in each report to help see the market, and keep an eye on competitive neighborhoods too in case data is sparse in the subject neighborhood. Lastly, let’s remember value increases might look more aggressive in some areas than others, so adjustments won’t look the same in every neighborhood or price range. Moreover, a typical canned market adjustment might be 1% per month (because that’s what a mentor taught us to do), but that might not be legit at all (like most canned adjustments). What does the market say? Let’s do our best to listen and then adjust if needed.

Questions: Any thoughts? What other advice would you give?

—————– For those interested, here is my big market update  —————–

Big monthly market update post - sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased from 123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 77 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: The market has been showing value increases. Whether looking at the median price, average price, or average price per sq ft, all the numbers sound “hot” so to speak. This isn’t a surprise though because it’s what normally happens in April. It’s worth noting it took 8 less days to sell last month compared to the same time last year, and the median price is up in the region by nearly 8% from last April. FHA sales were roughly 25% of all sales last month in Sacramento County, though they are down slightly from 27-28% of the market in past quarters (this is a stat worth watching over time). Sales volume for the entire year is down slightly, but not by much. In short, the stats are glowing overall because there has been upward growth with most metrics. However, buyers are still exhibiting price sensitivity. If properties are not priced correctly they are sitting instead of selling. Moreover, under the umbrella of a “hot market”, some sellers are simply pricing WAY too high for the market. They hear the word “hot”, but that doesn’t mean you can sell for anything. Lastly, just because the market has increased in value in some neighborhoods and the entire county doesn’t mean values are increasing for every property type or in every price range.

Sacramento County:

  1. It took an average of 31 days to sell a home last month.
  2. It took 6 less days to sell last month that the previous month.
  3. It took 11 less days to sell this April compared to last April.
  4. Sales volume is down slightly from last year by 3%.
  5. There is only 1.3 months of housing supply in Sacramento County.
  6. Housing inventory is 15% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased by 1% last month.
  8. The median price is 10% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft increased by 2.8% last month.
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 8.8% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

inventory - April 2016 - by home appraiser blog

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog

Median price since 2013 in sacramento county

price metrics since 2015 in sacramento county - look at all

median price and inventory since 2005 - by sacramento appraisal blog

inventory in sacramento county Since 2013 - part 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

fha and cash in sac county - sacramento appraisal blog

seasonal market in sacramento county sales volume 2

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. It took 6 less days to sell last month compared to the previous month.
  2. It took 8 less days to sell this April compared to last April.
  3. Sales volume was 4.6% lower in April 2016 compared to last April.
  4. Short sales were 3% and REOs were 3% of sales last month.
  5. There is 1.6 months of housing supply in the region right now.
  6. Housing inventory is 9.5% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased 3% last month from the previous month.
  8. The median price is 7.7% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft increased 2.5% last month.
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 6% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

median price sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

sales volume 2015 vs 2016 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

sacramento region volume - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

Regional Inventory - by Sacramento regional appraisal blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

median price and inventory in sacramento regional market

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. It took 6 less days to sell a house last month than March.
  2. It took 2 less days to sell this April compared to last April.
  3. Sales volume was 6% lower in April 2016 compared to last April.
  4. FHA sales were 17% of all sales last month.
  5. Cash sales were 21% of all sales last month.
  6. There is 1.8 months of housing supply in Placer County right now.
  7. Housing inventory is 6.7% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  8. The median price increased 5.6% last month (take with a grain of salt).
  9. The median price is up 9.2% from April 2015.
  10. Short sales were 2.7% and REOs were 1% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County housing inventory - by home appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

number of listings in PLACER county - 2016

Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

I hope this was helpful and interesting.

DOWNLOAD 77 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

SacBee: By the way, the second article I wrote for the SacBee real estate section went live. It’s called “One size does not fit all when talking about the housing market.”

Questions: Any advice you’d give to clients right now about pricing? Is there any other market insight you’d like to add? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

4 things to remember about increasing values and low inventory

Let’s talk about increasing values and low inventory. ‘Tis the season for this conversation because the market is heating up right now as we are on the cusp of spring. Here are a few things that have been on my mind, and then a huge local market update after that (for those interested). I’d love to hear your take in the comments below. Any thoughts?

values in real estate - sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased and used with permission from 123rf

  1. Front Loaded Market: In a normal market prices tend to heat up in the spring and soften in the fall. While this isn’t true everywhere in the United States (or for every year or type of property), this general reality reminds us that value increases are often loaded into the front part of the year rather than throughout the entire year. For instance, if values increased by 6% last year, it doesn’t mean value went up by 0.5% each month. Instead, any increase in value might actually have occurred from February to June.
  2. Rapid Appreciation: I’ve been hearing lots of chatter about rapid appreciation lately. The idea is the market has increased substantially in value over the past couple months and appraisals are lagging behind the trend. I know low appraisals are a reality, and if appraisers aren’t giving upward adjustments for value increases (when warranted of course), it can lead to conservative appraisals that probably reflect the market two months ago rather than right now. Whatever the case, the Sacramento market has felt extremely competitive lately because of freakishly low inventory, though actual value increases seem more nominal for the spring rather than exponential. Yes, there are some properties that have been bid up 10% or so, but those properties were probably priced far too low since increases that large have not typified this market. Moreover, sometimes markets feel more aggressive than they actually are, so a market’s mantra might be: “Aggressive demand, modest appreciation.”
  3. Not Every Neighborhood: Some neighborhoods and price ranges are trending differently than others. I know that sounds obvious, but it’s worth mentioning because it’s easy to lump all areas and price ranges together. For instance, the median price in the regional market last month increased by 2.5%, but that doesn’t mean values increased by 2.5% in every single neighborhood or price range. When valuing a property, we can keep an eye on trends from the wider area, but at the end of the day we need to look at competitive sales and listings in the subject property’s particular neighborhood. What is the competitive market doing in the neighborhood? If we impose the notion that “values increased by 2.5% last month” on every neighborhood, we’re probably going to make some valuation mistakes.
  4. Less New Construction is Starting to Matter: When the economy collapsed, new home construction sloughed off and has not yet recovered anywhere close to where it was during the glory years from say 2003 to 2005. This might not seem like a big deal, but now imagine the population has grown over the past 10 years, which essentially means there are now less available housing units for a larger population. On top of this, institutional investors bought homes in recent years and are holding on to them instead of selling. Moreover, some owners purchased several years ago are sitting on a sweet 3.5% interest rate and a low mortgage payment. Why would they sell in today’s market unless they really had to? Not all areas in the country are struggling with low inventory, but a lack of new home construction in recent years is actually a big deal, and it’s certainly contributing to a lower housing supply in many markets including Sacramento. Lastly, when there are less housing units for the population, it tends to create an environment where rents increase. This is an important trend to watch.

Any thoughts? I’d love to hear your take below.

—————– For those interested, here is my big market update  —————–

Big monthly market update post - sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased from 123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE:
Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Sacramento Market Summary: The market in February was fairly normal in Sacramento. Values saw a modest seasonal uptick, sales volume increased, and inventory declined. This was all expected because it’s what we normally see at this time of year. But while market stats are more on the tame side, the market has felt anything but that in the trenches of house hunting. Multiple offers are commonplace and buyers are seeming to exude a 2004-ish frenzy to get into contract before values rise too quickly (does that concern anyone?). Despite housing inventory being extremely tight, properties that are priced too high are sitting instead of selling, and that reminds us how price sensitive buyers have become. The market is definitely a sellers’ market, though that doesn’t mean sellers can command any price they want. It’s interesting to note it took 12 less days to sell a house this February compared to last February, and only 3.4% of all sales in the region last month were short sales. One last thing. There is a big difference in the mood among buyers when mortgage interest rates are closer to 3.5% compared to even 4.0%, so watch rates and the market closely.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

  1. It took an average of 46 days to sell in both February and January.
  2. It took 12 less days to sell this February compared to last February.
  3. Sales volume was nearly identical in February 2016 compared to last February.
  4. FHA sales were 24% of all sales last month.
  5. Housing inventory is 25% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  6. The median price increased by 6.7% last month (take that w/ a grain of salt).
  7. The median price is 6.7% higher than the same time last year.
  8. The avg price per sq ft increased by about 1% last month.
  9. The avg price per sq ft is 6% higher than the same time last year.
  10. Sales volume in 2016 is roughly the same as the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

Median price since 2013 in sacramento county

inventory - February 2016 - by home appraiser blog

inventory in sacramento county Since 2013 - part 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Median price and inventory since 2001 by sacramento appraisal blog

market in sacramento - sacramento appraisal group

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. It took 1 day longer to sell a house last month than January.
  2. It took 12 less days to sell this February compared to last February.
  3. Sales volume was 2% lower in February 2016 compared to last February.
  4. FHA sales were 22% of all sales last month.
  5. Short sales were 3.4% and REOs were 4.8% of sales last month.
  6. Housing inventory is 20% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased 2.5% last month from the previous month.
  8. The median price is 3% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft declined slightly last month (less than 1%).
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 7.9% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

sales volume 2015 vs 2016 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

sacramento region volume - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

median price and inventory in sacramento regional market 2013

number of listings in sacramento regional market

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. It took 7 more days to sell a house last month than January.
  2. It took 6 less days to sell this February compared to last February.
  3. Sales volume was 4% lower in February 2016 compared to last February.
  4. FHA sales were 20% of all sales last month.
  5. Cash sales were 19% of all sales last month.
  6. Housing inventory is 17% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. Sales volume is up 2.5% this Jan/Feb compared to last Jan/Feb.
  8. The median price increased 2.5% from the previous month.
  9. The median price is up nearly 11% from February 2015.
  10. Short sales were 1.5% and REOs were 4.3% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog number of listings in PLACER county - January 2016 Placer County housing inventory - by home appraiser blog Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

I hope this was helpful and interesting.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE:
Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: Any other points to add about increasing values or low inventory? What stands out to you about the latest stats in Sacramento? I’d love to hear your take and what you are seeing in the trenches.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

8 things you can buy if you win Powerball (and the market in Sacramento)

Have you bought a Powerball ticket? It’s wild to think someone is probably going to win 1.5 billion dollars this week. Of course there’s an extremely slim chance you’d actually win, but if you do, here are some things you can buy when it comes to real estate. After that, let’s take an in-depth look at Sacramento’s housing market.

powerball winner - real estate - sacramento appraisal blog

8 real estate things you can buy if you win Powerball

  1. All current listings in Sacramento: You could literally buy every single active residential listing in Sacramento, Placer, and Yolo County (and still have about $150M left).
  2. NBA Team: You could buy the Sacramento Kings NBA team and have about one billion to spare.
  3. 63 million Shares of Zillow: You could buy 63,911,376 shares of Zillow ($23.47 per share).
  4. Buy an Island: This is an obvious choice for a billionaire. You could easily buy your own island. Heck, you could buy a group of islands. See some islands that are for sale right now.
  5. Own 7 Years of East Sacramento Sales: If you bought every single house that sold on MLS in East Sacramento since October 2008, you would still have 600 million left.
  6. Build a Sports Stadium: Most recent professional sports stadiums have ranged in cost from around $500M to $1.5B. For instance, the 49ers new stadium cost around $1.3B and the Sacramento Kings stadium is coming in around $500M. If you buy, what are you going to name it?
  7. Build a Bigger House than that One Guy in India: You may remember hearing about a 27-story residential home that was built in India in 2014. This home can withstand an 8.0 earthquake and it’s the second most expensive home in the world behind Buckingham Palace. Keep in mind it requires a staff of 600 to care for it. The property was said to have cost $1B total, so you have the coin to pull it off (Wikipedia).
  8. Do Some Good: Imagine the good you could do if you won the lottery. But we know that’s not going to happen. The great thing is we don’t have to wait to win Powerball to be generous since generosity is only relative to how much money we have – whether two dollars or $1.5B.

By the way, the winner won’t actually get 1.5 billion. I realize a huge sum is coming off the top right away for taxes and such.

Now let’s look at the latest Sacramento real estate trends.

the market in 2015 in sacramento

Two ways to read THE BIG MONTHLY POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 78 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: If I had to sum up the market last year I would say: Modest value appreciation, but aggressive demand. If I added a few more details I would say the story of the market is summed up as follows: More sales, lower inventory, higher demand, a fairly normal fall (though far less dull than 2014), and modest value increases over the year. Right now housing inventory is only 1.28 months in the region, which is 32% lower than last year at the same time. Overall sales volume in 2015 was 10.8% higher in the regional market, and it’s important to note FHA volume increased by 30% this year. In December it took 4 days longer to sell a home than it did in November, and that reminds us the market experienced a seasonal softening dynamic even in the midst of more competition. Remember though it was taking 90 days to sell a house four years ago, and selling in less than half the time right now helps us see the market can be different each year depending on inventory, interest rates, the economy, etc…  Overall most of the value increases came in the first two quarters of the year, and the market was fairly flat for the past six months in terms of value. Buyers really haven’t had very many options because of how low inventory has been, but at the same time buyers are exhibiting price sensitivity by not pulling the trigger on overpriced listings. One last aspect worth mentioning is rents have been increasing in many areas in Sacramento, and it’s worth watching this trend.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

  1. It took 4 more days to sell a house last month than November (but 7 days less than last year at the same time).
  2. Sales volume was 20% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 10.9% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. FHA sales represented 27.5% of all sales during the past quarter.
  5. Housing inventory is 41% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  6. The median price increased by 2% last month (see #6).
  7. The average price per sq ft and average sales price stayed about the same from the previous month (so don’t put too much weight on #5).
  8. The average price per sq ft is 10% higher than last year at the same time.
  9. The median price is 11% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  10. REO sales were less than 4% of all sales last quarter (Short Sales were less than 5%).

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

sales in 2015 2

Median price and inventory since 2011 by sacramento appraisal blog

bottom of market

fha and cash in sacramento county by sacramento appraisal blog - part 2

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

inventory - December 2015 - by home appraiser blog

REOs and Short Sales in Sacramento County since the bottom

price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county - look at all

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. It took 3 more days to sell a house last month than November, but it was taking one week longer to sell at the same time last year.
  2. Sales volume was 14.5% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 10.8% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. Housing inventory is 32% lower than the same time last year.
  5. Cash sales were only 15% of all sales in 2015.
  6. The average price per sq ft, median price, and average sales price showed a slight seasonal dip over the past few months.
  7. The avg price per sq ft is 7.5% higher than last year at the same time.
  8. The median price is 5.6% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  9. REO sales were 3.5% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were only 3% of all sales last month in the region.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

sales volume 2015 vs 2014 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

prices in sacramento region - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

median price and inventory in sacramento regional market

interest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. It took 6 more days to sell a house last month than November, but it was taking 5 days longer to sell at the same time last year.
  2. Sales volume was 1% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 13% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. Housing inventory is 16% lower than the same time last year.
  5. Cash sales were only 15% of all sales in 2015.
  6. The average price per sq ft, median price, and average sales price showed a slight seasonal dip over the past few months.
  7. The avg price per sq ft is 3.6% higher than last year at the same time.
  8. The median price is 2% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  9. REO sales were 1.8% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were only 3% of all sales last month in the region.

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog number of listings in PLACER county - December 2015 Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

I hope this was helpful and interesting.

DOWNLOAD 78 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: How would you spend the money if you won at Powerball? What stands out to you about the latest stats in Sacramento? How would you describe the market? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Some perspective as real estate “bubble” conversations emerge

Lots of real estate “bubble” talk lately. Have you noticed? It’s a hot topic for the public and real estate community as housing affordability is becoming more of an issue since values have been on the rise for the past four years. Even Hollywood is getting in on the action with movies hitting the screen about the bursting of the “bubble” ten years ago (thanks Jonathan Miller for the heads-up). Anyway, this isn’t another post on whether we are in a bubble or not, but rather some things to keep in mind for the real estate community as bubbly conversations emerge. I’d love to hear your take in the comments below.

real estate bubble - image bought and used with permission from 123rf dot com by sacramento appraisal blog

Enjoy the tips. Anything you’d add?

Things to keep in mind during real estate “bubble” conversations:

  1. Predicting is Dangerous: Predicting the future of real estate is sort of like predicting what Justin Bieber is going to do next. What will the Biebs do next month or next year? Nobody knows. The same is true in real estate, and it’s okay for real estate professionals to simply say, “I don’t know what the market is going to do. My crystal ball is broken. But I can tell you what the market is doing right now and what it seems poised to do.” Seriously, if you work in real estate, this is probably the best and most honest answer you can give.
  2. Remember that markets change: At some point in the future values are going to decline, and at some point in the future they are going to increase. Of course we want to avoid incredibly steep declines, but otherwise it’s normal for real estate values to go up and down, and we should therefore expect that. We seem to have a mindset that prices should only increase, but that’s just not realistic. That would be like saying every day should be sunny or each day of a marriage should be only positive and filled with bliss (nothing is always positive).
  3. Be in tune with the slow fall season: When the market slows during the fall, it only exacerbates bubble talk. The past three years have seen a very definitive dull market in the fall (at least in the Sacramento area), and we need to respect and embrace that slow seasonal reality (and price accordingly). It’s sort of like when work is slow, it’s easy to get depressed or even think the business is going under. Well, it’s the same deal with the cyclical real estate market.
  4. Never promise equity: It’s easy to say things like, “This house will be worth much more in two years, so it’s a good time to buy,” but can anyone really guarantee that? If you never promise value to your clients, they can never come back and say, “You told me the market was going to increase and it didn’t”. This was exactly what many real estate pros told buyers using 100% financing last decade. “Hey, the market is going to increase, so don’t worry about that adjustable rate. You can refinance out of it in two years.” Interestingly enough, today’s FHA buyers are sometimes told, “You can get in the market with FHA now, and just refinance into a conventional loan when the market increases.”
  5. Focus on affordability: Everyone wants to buy at the lowest point in a market, but very few people actually pull that off. In fact, many times it’s simply an accident when it does happen. Ultimately people ought to buy when it makes sense for their wallet and lifestyle, and that is a fantastic point to emphasize because it respects where people are at in life rather than telling people when they should do something. If you have clients who want to buy, then honor their desires by helping them understand what affordability looks like with whatever market is in front of them.
  6. Become great at explaining the cake: Value in real estate is like a multi-layered cake since there are many “layers” in a market that impact prices. See my cake image here and use it (I love this analogy). It’s easy to think of real estate in terms of being only about supply and demand, but it’s also about interest rates, the economy, cash investors, financing, affordability, jobs, consumer confidence and so many other “layers”. In short, when one layer of the cake changes (such as inventory or financing), it can change the entire cake (the market).
  7. Hone your pricing skills:  How can you get better at pricing, pulling comps, or making value adjustments this year? It can be challenging to price when a market slows or declines because values might actually be lower than the most recent sales and listings indicate. Thus I recommend getting some training this year, taking some stellar CE, or connecting with some locals who you think are getting it right (By the way, if you’re local, I teach a 2 or 3-hour class called “How to Think Like an Appraiser”. May I do a training in your office?)
  8. Change what you say about the market as the market changes: It’s easy to speak fluently in clichés or say the same thing about the market for years. Agents do this by saying “it’s a good time to buy and sell” even if it isn’t, and appraisers do this by always indicating in their reports that values are “stable” with a “balanced” supply of inventory (even if that’s not the case). When we look closely at trends and begin to see what the market is doing, we can change what we say to our contacts and clients. Moreover, we might even price more effectively and give better real estate advice.
  9. Bubble Obsession: Values were massively inflated ten years ago, yet we still have this obsession about getting back to “the good ‘ol days”. Was it really that good to see huge price increases only to have the housing market collapse around us? Do we want to get back there? Nah, I think we can do better. This is why I recommend real estate professionals to be aware of bubble issues, but also find other interesting things to talk about and share. I’m absolutely not saying to ignore the market or be dishonest, but only find a balance so we don’t perpetuate a fear or worry about what may or may not happen to values in the future.
  10. Consider your future clients: One of the best things to do when considering the future of real estate is to think about who your clients might be as the market changes. Based on the way the market is moving, who do you think your clients are going to be in 2016 and 2017? What will your database need over the next two years? Are they going to be looking to buy, sell, rent, get married, get divorced, invest, do a short sale, get back in the market, remove PMI, sell a parent’s home, move up, build an accessory dwelling for an aging parent, downsize, settle an estate….?

I hope this was helpful.

Thank you sincerely for reading. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate you letting me share a few thoughts each week.

Questions: What is point #11? Which one resonated with you the most? Do you think we’re in a “bubble”? (I’ll share my thoughts if someone asks)

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