Making the numbers say what we want (and a Sacramento market update)

We can make numbers say whatever we want. We see this all the time in the media, politics, and even in real estate. Sometimes it’s a matter of intentionally fudging the numbers, but other times we might be honest about sharing something but actually still get it totally wrong. Today I want to highlight a real life example how we can end up saying something totally different about the market depending on the numbers we’re looking at. Whether you’re local or not, I hope you can take something away from this post. Then for those interested we’ll dive into a big Sacramento market update. Any thoughts? I’d love to hear your take.

Example 1: Sales price to list price ratio:

sold-vs-list-price-percentage-in-sacramento-county

The sales vs. list price percentage is the ratio between the sales price and whatever the most recent list price was before a property got into contract. For example, imagine a property listed at $100,000, was reduced to $98,000, and then went into contract at $98,000. The sales to list price would be 100% (98/98). If we look at this metric alone and see a county average of 100%, it looks like properties are selling for whatever they’re listed for. Woohoo, the market is hot!!!

Example 2: Sales price to ORIGINAL list price ratio:

sales-price-to-original-list-price-in-sacramento-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

The sales to original list price ratio is the relationship between the original list price and the final sales price. For example, imagine a property listed at $100,000 but was reduced to $98,000, and then went into contract at $96,000. The sales to list price ratio would be 96% (96/100). This metric takes into account ALL price reductions, and in my mind tells a more fuller story of the market.

KEY QUESTION: Which one above does your CMA report?

BIG POINT: If we look at the sales price to list price ratio the market seems like it’s NOT softening. But if we take a deeper look at the sales price to ORIGINAL list price ratio, we see properties on average sold for 4% less than their original list price last month. This is definitely a more telling stat because it reminds us how many properties have been overpriced lately. Remember, there were nearly 1800 sales last month, so an average 4% decline is a big stat. But it’s easy to miss that if we don’t know what to look for and end up reporting the first stat above.

—-—–—– And here’s my big monthly market update  ———–—–

big-monthly-market-update-post-sacramento-appraisal-blog-image-purchased-from-123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: The market feels like it should at this time of year. It’s taking slightly longer to sell than it was a couple of months ago, the sales to original list price ratio has been declining, and prices are softening as the hot summer fades away. This doesn’t mean the market is dull at every price range though. In fact, the bottom of the market under $300,000 is definitely more aggressive than properties above $500,000. Right now housing inventory is 11% lower than it was the same time last year and a whopping 35% lower than it was in 2014. If you remember, two years ago the market felt extremely dull and there were about 400 price reductions every day when logging in to MLS (this year price reductions are hovering around 200 tops every day (that’s for the entire MLS coverage area)). This reminds us some fall markets are softer than others. Sales volume this year has been about the same as it was last year, though it’s important to note FHA is down 6% and cash is down over 8% so far. Celebrity house flipping seminars are coming to town frequently in Sacramento, but keep in mind only 2% of all sales in the region last month were bank-owned, which reminds us low-priced fixer deals on MLS are pretty much a thing of the past. Lastly, there has been lots of talk about the market having shifted or beginning a downturn, but right now the stats look to be showing a normal seasonal slowing. We often hear things like, “the market is starting to tank”, but unless we see a real change in the stats or hear something more definitive from the real estate community about values declining, let’s be in tune with the slowing seasonal market. In case it’s useful, here is a video tutorial I did a couple of weeks ago to walk through the slowing season and what it looked like in 2005 also.

Sacramento County:

  1. The median price is 102% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. Sales volume was up 8.5% this August compared to August 2015.
  3. There were only 4 sales under $100K last month (single family detached).
  4. Sales volume is up about 4% this year compared to last year.
  5. Housing inventory is 11% lower than the same time last year (only 1.57 months of inventory).
  6. FHA volume is down about 6% this year compared to 2015 (though they were 26% of all sales last month).
  7. Cash sales were only 14% of all sales last month.
  8. It took an average of 26 days to sell a home last month, which is 1 day less than the previous month (and 8 less days compared to last year).
  9. REOs were only 3% of all sales last month and short sales were 2.8%.
  10. The median price increased by 1% from last month, is down 3% from two months ago, and is up nearly 12% from last year at the same time.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

inventory-in-sacramento-county-since-2013-part-2-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

median-price-context-in-sacramento-county

median-price-since-2013-in-sacramento-county

price-metrics-since-2015-in-sacramento-county-look-at-all

inventory-august-2016-by-home-appraiser-blog

cdom-in-sacramento-county-by-sacramento-regional-appraisal-blog

sales-volume-in-sacramento-county-since-2012

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. The median price is 98.5% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. It took the same time to sell last month compared to the previous month (but 8 less days compared to August 2015).
  3. Sales volume is about the same as it was last year at the same time (very slightly more this year so far)
  4. Cash sales were 15% of all sales last month.
  5. Cash sales volume is 6.4% lower this year than last year.
  6. FHA sales were 22% of all sales last month.
  7. FHA sales volume is down nearly 7% this year so far.
  8. There is 1.77 months of housing supply in the region right now, which is over 13% lower than the same time last year.
  9. The median price increased last month, but it’s down from two months ago. The median price is up nearly 9% from last year at the same time. The average sales price and average price per sq ft are both up about 8% from last year too.
  10. REOs were only 2% of all sales last month and short sales were the same.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

median-price-sacramento-placer-yolo-el-dorado-county

regional-inventory-by-sacramento-regional-appraisal-blog

sacramento-region-volume-fha-and-conventional-by-appraiser-blog

days-on-market-in-placer-sac-el-dorado-yolo-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

number-of-listings-in-sacramento-regional-market

interest-rates-inventory-median-price-in-sacramento-regional-market-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog-market

number-of-listings-in-placer-yolo-el-dorado-sacramento-by-home-appraiser-blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. Today’s median price is 70% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. It took 4 more days to sell a house last month than the previous month (but 6 less days than last year at the same time).
  3. Sales volume was down less than 1% in August 2016 compared to last August and is down slightly for the year about 3%.
  4. Both FHA sales were 16% and cash sales were 19% of all sales last month.
  5. There is 2.05 months of housing supply in Placer County right now, which is down nearly 13% from the same time last year.
  6. The median price declined about 1% from the previous month, but for a better context it’s up 7% from last year at the same time.
  7. The average price per sq ft was $214 last month (was $202 last year at the same time).
  8. The average sales price was $472K last month (up about 4% from last year).
  9. Bank owned sales were only 1% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were 2% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

placer-county-median-price-since-2014-part-2-by-home-appraiser-blog

placer-county-housing-inventory-by-home-appraiser-blog

months-of-housing-inventory-in-placer-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

number-of-listings-in-placer-county-2016

days-on-market-in-placer-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

placer-county-sales-volume-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

how-to-think-like-an-appraiser-class-by-ryan-lundquistAppraisal Class I’m teaching: On September 29 from 9am-12pm I’m doing my favorite class at SAR called HOW TO THINK LIKE AN APPRAISER. This is a tremendous time where we’ll talk about seeing properties like an appraiser does. We’ll look at comp selection, using price per sq ft properly, and so many issues. My goal is to help you walk away glad you came and full of actionable ideas for business. Register here.

Question: Did I miss anything? Any other market insight you’d like to add? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

No man’s land & the aggressive real estate market

It’s easy to explain what the market did, but what is it doing now? Everyone and their Mom can sound like an expert with the benefit of hindsight, but how do we see the current market? Do we give more weight to recent sales or listings? Do we have to wait for sales to close to know how the market is unfolding? Let’s consider a few thoughts below. I also have my big monthly market update at the bottom of this post for those interested. Any thoughts?

aggressive market in sacramento - sacramento appraisal blog

Four points to consider:

  1. Sales show us the past: A sale might close escrow today, but does it really tell us about the market today? Not necessarily. A closed sale on April 12, 2016 probably got into contract in early March, so it likely tells us more about the market 30-45 days ago rather than today. The current market in April could actually be higher or lower, so it’s important to ask how value has changed if at all.
  2. Pendings help us see the current market: The current market is often better seen in the pendings and listings rather than the sales. This assumes we have enough solid data of course. One of the most practical questions we can ask is whether properties are getting into contract at higher levels or not. Simply put, if pendings are higher than the most recent sales (and they’re not padded with concessions), they helps us see the current market has probably increased in value. Other questions to consider: Are properties getting into contract more quickly? Is inventory going up or down? Is the sales-to-list price ratio increasing or declining in the neighborhood? Are sellers offering incentives to buyers or not? It’s easy to be so fixated on sales that we don’t ask these questions, but the answers help us gauge current trends. Remember though, sales might tell us about the past, but we still give them strong weight because they actually closed at that level. After all, pendings might not end up selling. In that sense we have to “appraise” the pendings too. Are they reasonable? Do they reflect the market? Or are they outliers?
  3. Getting bid up to “no man’s land”: Sometimes in a frenzied market, properties can easily get into contract for more than they are worth. Yes, the market has been aggressive and values have been increasing (see trends below), but sometimes properties are simply getting bid up to “no man’s land” so to speak. In other words, there just isn’t any support for a value that high based on all market data. Remember, even when housing inventory is incredibly sparse like it is right now, there still has to be support for the value. We can’t just list at an astronomical level or let offers get bid up way beyond what is reasonable and expect a magical appraisal to meet the contract price.
  4. Making or not making market adjustments: If the market has changed since the sales went into contract, appraisers may need to account for that with a market conditions adjustment. If you didn’t know, appraisers can give an up or down adjustment to the comps if the market has changed since the comps went into contract. In fact, if an adjustment is not given when it should be given, the appraised value could easily reflect the market in the past rather than today. Appraisers need to consider what a real market adjustment for time might look like. For instance, last week I used a comp that was nearly one year old since recent sales were sparse, and I gave an 8% adjustment up since the neighborhood market has increased in value by that much. I could have given a small token adjustment that I just made up, but 8% was very reasonable based on more recent sales and current pendings.

Any thoughts? I’d love to hear your take below.

—————– For those interested, here is my big market update  —————–

Big monthly market update post - sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased from 123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 87 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Sacramento Market Summary: It’s been aggressive out there. This is why many real estate professionals are comparing the current market with the beginning of 2013. There are certainly similarities, though the market three years ago had very rapid appreciation and all the metrics show it was hands-down more aggressive than it is today. We can talk about the differences in the comments if you’d like. Values overall saw a healthy uptick last month, it took 12 less days to sell a house compared to the same time last year, and housing inventory is currently over 25% lower than it was last March. Sales volume was up about 4% last month compared with the same time last year, and interest rates declining has certainly helped draw more buyers out (which doesn’t help with the low inventory problem). FHA had been increasing in the Sacramento market, but in light of how aggressive the market is out there, FHA buyers have begun to get squeezed out. FHA buyers were still 23% of all sales last month, but that’s down from 25-28% for multiple months in a row. It’s worth noting bank-owned sales are up very slightly. Some REO brokers have said they are starting to see more action in their REO pipelines, though so far there really isn’t any big change as REOs were only 5% of all sales the past quarter.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

  1. It took an average of 37 days to sell a home last month.
  2. It took 9 less days to sell last month that the previous month.
  3. It took 10 less days to sell this March compared to last March.
  4. Sales volume was up nearly 4% this March compared to March 2015.
  5. There is only 1.2 months of housing supply in Sacramento County.
  6. Housing inventory is 26% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased by 2% last month.
  8. The median price is 8.7% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft increased by 2.3% last month.
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 8.3% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

inventory in sacramento county Since 2013 - part 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

inventory - March 2016 - by home appraiser blog

fha and cash in sac county - sacramento appraisal blog

sales volume and cash in sacramento - by home appraiser blog

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

REO and short sale trends - sac appraisal blog 3

median price and inventory since jan 2013 - by sacramento appraisal blog

price metrics since 2015 in sacramento county - look at all 2

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. It took 9 less days to sell last month compared to the previous month.
  2. It took 9 less days to sell this March compared to last March.
  3. Sales volume was 2.5% higher in March 2016 compared to last March.
  4. Short sales were 3.5% and REOs were 5.2% of sales last month.
  5. There is 1.5 months of housing supply in the region right now.
  6. Housing inventory is 19% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased 3% last month from the previous month.
  8. The median price is 7.2% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft increased 1.6% last month.
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 7.6% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

median price and inventory in sacramento regional market 2013

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

sales volume 2015 vs 2016 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

sacramento region volume - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

Regional market median price - by home appraiser blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. It took 14 less days to sell a house last month than February.
  2. It took 9 less days to sell this March compared to last March.
  3. Sales volume was 11% lower in March 2016 compared to last March.
  4. FHA sales were 18% of all sales last month.
  5. Cash sales were 20% of all sales last month.
  6. There is 1.8 months of housing supply in Placer County right now.
  7. Housing inventory is 3% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  8. The median price declined 2% last month (take with a grain of salt).
  9. The median price is up 6.5% from March 2015.
  10. Short sales were 3.2% and REOs were 2.4% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

Placer County housing inventory - by home appraiser blog

Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog

number of listings in PLACER county - 2016

months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

interest rates inventory median price in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

I hope this was helpful and interesting.

DOWNLOAD 87 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: Any other points to add about sales vs. listings? How else would you describe the market right now? I’d love to hear your take and what you are seeing in the trenches.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The stats show the market is slowing (and we’re not surprised)

Shocking titles tend to get clicked more on Facebook. So if I wanted more clicks, I probably could have gone with a sensational title like, “The market is taking a turn downward”. Or maybe I could have said, “Big changes you MUST know about in Sacramento real estate.” After all, the stats are showing values are softening, so hyping up this point could certainly lead to more traffic. But you know what? I’m not interested in hype, and I never want more clicks at the expense of my integrity. Yes, the market is growing softer right now, and that can feel scary for some, but truth be told there really isn’t any shock here because this is exactly what we expect to see happen during the fall months. Nonetheless, the fascinating part is the fall season this year has still been different than it was last year. This year is actually much more competitive and far less dull. So let’s unpack some trends below with the goal of understanding what values are doing so we can more effectively tell the story of the market to our clients and contacts. I hope this is helpful for locals as well as out-of-town readers (what is your market doing right now?).

housing numbers - image purchased and used with permission by sacramento appraisal blog

Two ways to read THE BIG MONTHLY POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

One Paragraph to Describe the Sacramento Market: The market has been slowing in the Sacramento area, but it’s nowhere near as slow as it was last year at the same time. Overall sales volume is up nearly 11% in the region this year, housing inventory is down 24%, and homes took 4 fewer days to sell this September compared to last September. There have actually been less price reductions so far this year too. In terms of home prices, the median price, average price per sq ft, and average sales prices are tending to be about 4-5%+ higher than they were last year, though this doesn’t mean values are necessarily 4-5% higher. This is an important distinction because median price increases don’t always translate dollar to dollar to actual value. Keep in mind the median price in the regional market has softened by almost 2.5% over the past few months, and the median price in Sacramento County has been about the same for five months in a row. There are some graphs below to help show the seasonal market, and they remind us it is customary to see the median price soften, inventory increase, and sales volume decline during the fall months. Overall there is still a higher demand than there was last year, but the market is very price sensitive. Buyers simply aren’t pulling the trigger on overpriced homes (sellers, please consider that). By the way, if you missed my post last week, I gave some perspective on “real estate bubble” conversations, and it is a very relevant post as we see price metrics begin to soften at this time of year.

Sacramento County Market Trends for September 2015:

  1. The median price has been hovering around $290,000 for 5 months (3.6% higher than last year).
  2. It took an average of 36 days to sell a house last month (up 2 days from the previous month).
  3. Last year at this time it was taking an average of 41 days to sell a house.
  4. FHA sales were 29.5% of all sales last month (nearly 28% of all sales in Sacramento County last quarter).
  5. Sales volume is 10.1% higher so far in 2015 compared to last year.
  6. Sales volume was 13% higher in Sept 2015 compared to Sept 2014.
  7. There is a 1.74 month supply of homes for sale (similar to previous month).
  8. Housing inventory is nearly 30% lower right now compared to Sept 2014.
  9. The average price per sq ft is 188 (5.6% higher than last September).
  10. The average sales price is $314,317 (1.9% higher than last September).

Median price since 2013 in sacramento county

reo and short sales sacramento county 2

seasonal market in sacramento county median price

seasonal market in sacramento county sales volume 2 FHA and cash trends in Sacramento 3

seasonal market in sacramento county inventory 2

inventory - September 2015 - by home appraiser blog CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county

Sacramento Regional Trends for September 2015 (Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado):

  1. Sales volume was up 11.5% in Sept 2015 compared to Sept 2014.
  2. Sales volume for the year is up 11% compared with 2014.
  3. The median price at $325,000 is up 4.8% from last year, but down 2.5% from the past few months.
  4. It took an average of 41 days to sell a house last month (2 days longer than last month).
  5. FHA sales were 23% of all sales in the region last month.
  6. There is 2.06 months of housing inventory (same as previous month).
  7. The average sales price is $360,481 (4.3% higher than last year, but down slightly from three months ago at $370K).
  8. It took 4 less days to sell a house this Sept compared to Sept 2014.
  9. FHA sales volume has increased by 30% in 2015 compared with 2014.
  10. Housing inventory is nearly 24% lower right now compared to Sept 2014.

sales volume 2015 vs 2014 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

breakdown of sales fha and everything else in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

breakdown of sales in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

median price sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County Market Trends for September 2015:

  1. Sales volume was up 7.7% in September 2015 compared to September 2014.
  2. Sales volume for the year is up 15.8% compared with 2014.
  3. The median price in Placer County is $389,000 (about 1% higher than last year at the same time).
  4. Cash sales were 18.8% of all sales last month (very normal level).
  5. It took 46 days on average to sell a house last month (same as previous month).
  6. Last year at this time it took 1 day longer to sell a house.
  7. FHA sales were 16.7% of all sales in Placer County last month.
  8. There is 2.42 months of housing inventory (17% lower than last year).
  9. The average price per sq ft is 194 (5.3% higher than last year at the same time).
  10. REOs were 2.6% of all sales and short sales were 1.5% of all sales last month.

Placer County median price since 2014 - part 2 - by home appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

interest rates inventory median price in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

I hope this was helpful. Thank you so much for being here.

Quick Pricing Advice:

  1. It’s normal for prices to cool during the fall. This year the market is not as soft as it was last year at this time, but we are still seeing a softening.
  2. Price according to the most recent listings that are actually getting into contract rather than the highest sales from the spring.
  3. Talk about the difference between actives, pendings, and neighborhood sales on your listing appointments and in your appraisals. See How to use a CMA to gauge the temperature of the market for a fantastic way to quickly explain what the market is doing to your clients.
  4. The market is price sensitive, which means buyers are not biting on overpriced listings despite inventory and interest rates being relatively low.
  5. Remember there are many markets within a market, so price according to the neighborhood market rather than county-wide trends since your neighborhood might be more or less aggressive compared to the entire county.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: How do you think sellers and buyers are feeling about the market right now? What are you seeing out there?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The slowing, competitive, & price-sensitive market in Sacramento

Slowing down. Competitive. Price sensitive. Still more aggressive than last year. These are all ways I would describe today’s housing market in Sacramento. Let’s unpack the latest trends today to really see the market so we can better understand it and explain it to clients.

slow but competitive market in sacramento - image purchased and used with permission from 123rf - sacramento appraisal blog

4 Hours to write this post: This post usually takes easily 4-5 hours to write each month. Keep in mind I create 50-60 graphs and then break down the trends into bite-sized talking points. I honestly LOVE doing this, and the goal is to be able to use the information for life and business. Why am I mentioning this? I just wanted to let you know how much I value helping us stay in tune with the market. New readers, the three other monthly posts are short, sweet, and general, but this one is long and hyper-local.

Two ways to read THE BIG MONTHLY POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 54 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

One Paragraph to Describe the Sacramento Market: Last month I talked about how the market has been slowing down. Sometimes when we say “slow”, it can really freak people out. But it’s actually very normal for real estate to soften during the later summer and fall after a more aggressive buying season in the spring. Moreover, when the market does change, it’s simply an opportunity to price more efficiently and explain the changing market to clients. The danger is when we say the same thing about the market all year long despite the trends really not being the same. What are some of the signs of slowing? It took 4 days longer to sell a home last month than the previous month in the Sacramento region. Housing inventory increased slightly in the surrounding four counties last month. The sales to list price ratio decreased by 1% last month. The median price in Sacramento County has been the same for four months in a row. The median price in the Sacramento region has declined by 1% over the past few months. I could go on and on. Of course let’s remember that sales volume is up by a whopping 10.9% so far this year in the region, and housing inventory is actually 22% lower right now in the region compared to the same time last year. Ultimately it’s still very competitive out there as buyers are hungry to get into contract before interest rates rise too much or while they feel like they can still afford the market (that’s so 2004). All year the market has been remarkably price sensitive too, which means buyers have been hesitant to write offers on overpriced homes. As housing supply presumably continues to increase over the next few months, watch out for price reductions to continue to increase, unrealistic expectations from sellers, and buyers gaining more power.

Sacramento County Market Trends for August 2015:

  1. The median price has been hovering at $290,000 for 120 days.
  2. It took an average of 34 days to sell a house last month (up 3 days from July).
  3. Last year at this time it was taking an average of 40 days to sell a house.
  4. FHA sales were nearly 27% of all sales in Sacramento County last month.
  5. Sales volume is 9.7% higher so far in 2015 compared to last year.
  6. Sales volume was 15% higher in August 2015 compared to August 2014.
  7. There is a 1.76 month supply of homes for sale (slightly lower than July).
  8. Housing inventory is nearly 27% lower right now compared to August 2014.
  9. The average price per sq ft is 185 (5.5% higher than last August).
  10. The average sales price is $319,636 (slightly lower than past two months).

context for median price - by sacramento appraisal blog

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

inventory in sacramento county Since 2013 - part 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

inventory - August 2015 - by home appraiser blog

price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county

number of listings in sacramento - August 2015 - by home appraiser blog

sales volume in Sacramento County

Sacramento Regional Trends for August 2015 (Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado):

  1. Sales volume was up 12.8% in August 2015 compared to August 2014.
  2. Sales volume for the year is up 10.9% compared with 2014.
  3. The median price at $328,825 is up 6% from last year, but down 1% from the past two months.
  4. It took an average of 39 days to sell a house last month (4 days longer than last month).
  5. FHA sales were 23% of all sales in the region last month.
  6. There is 2.05 months of housing inventory (up from 1.98 last month).
  7. The average sales price is $367,545 (4.2% higher than last year, but down slightly from two months ago at $370K).
  8. It took 3 less days to sell a house this August compared to August 2014.
  9. FHA sales volume has increased by 30% in 2015 compared with 2014.
  10. Housing inventory is nearly 22% lower right now compared to August 2014.

sales volume 2015 vs 2014 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

breakdown of sales fha and everything else in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

breakdown of sales in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

interest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County Market Trends for August 2015:

  1. Sales volume was up 11.7% in August 2015 compared to August 2014.
  2. Sales volume for the year is up 17% compared with 2014.
  3. The median price in Placer County is $402,900 (increased from last month, but it’s been hovering from $390-400K generally).
  4. Cash sales were 18.5% of all sales last month (very normal level).
  5. It took 46 days on average to sell a house last month (6 more days than July).
  6. Last year at this time it took 1 day longer to sell a house.
  7. FHA sales were 19% of all sales in Placer County last month.
  8. There is 2.35 months of housing inventory (up from 2.17 months in July).
  9. The average price per sq ft is 201.8 (been hovering around this level for a few months).
  10. REOs were less than 2% of all sales and short sales were roughly 2.5% of all sales last month.

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County median price and inventory - by home appraiser blog

interest rates inventory median price in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Regional market median price - by home appraiser blog

I hope this was helpful. Thank you so much for being here.

Quick Pricing Advice:

  1. Remember it is normal for the market to cool off during the latter part of the year. Knowing seasonal cycles and communicating them is key.
  2. Price according to the most recent listings that are getting into contract rather than the highest sales from the spring. Remember, it’s normal for housing inventory to increase during the fall, so this will only allow buyers to be more picky.
  3. The market is still very price sensitive, which means buyers are not biting on overpriced listings despite inventory and interest rates being relatively low.
  4. Price according to the neighborhood market rather than county-wide trends since your neighborhood might be more or less aggressive compared to the entire county.

DOWNLOAD 54 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: How do you think sellers and buyers are feeling about the market right now? What are you seeing out there?

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