trend graphs

‘Tis the season for real estate predictions

December 12, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 17 Comments

Buckle up. It’s real estate prophet season where everyone and their Mom has a prediction about the market next year. Here are some quick thoughts and then a deep dive into local trends for anyone interested.

1) Nothing too extreme: So far I’m not hearing too many extreme views on the housing market. What I mean is there aren’t as many voices saying, “It’s going to tank” or “We’re going to have massive increases.” For instance, here’s a forecast from Realtor.com and it’s pretty mild. Very little price growth and a dip in the number of sales too. For reference, I wouldn’t base my perception of the market on any forecast.

2) Consumer thoughts & Twitter: I asked Twitter to predict and people seemed to mostly think prices would be flat or modest. This isn’t anything scientific, but the results don’t surprise me based on conversations I’ve been having. If you work in real estate, ask people what they think. But be careful about opinions formed from headlines instead of local data.

3) Beware of the prophets: Spoiler alert. Nobody knows what the market is going to do, so beware of false real estate prophets who predict the same thing every year and then repackage their predictions for the new year. My advice? Don’t lose credibility by trying to predict the future. It’s okay to say, “My crystal ball is broken, but I can tell you what the market is doing right now.” This doesn’t mean we don’t have ideas where things might go based on current data, but it does mean we’re ultimately humble about our ability to predict the future.

And now ironically here’s a piece from the Sacramento Bee on where the market is heading in 2020 (behind a paywall). I was asked to pitch in some thoughts and I did. Of course like a broken record I always start a media interview like this with, “My crystal ball is broken…. Here are some things to consider.”

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

Summary: Some fall seasons are really dull, but this hasn’t been one of them. In fact, if you’re looking for a slogan right now it could be, “Hey man, it’s not that dull.” The numbers look pretty hot too, but there’s a reason for that (which I’ll get into below). Yesterday when speaking in a real estate office someone asked, “Ryan, has the market not been as slow this year? It seems like it.” And my answer was, “You’re exactly right.” Granted, we’re still seeing signs of a traditional seasonal slowing, but the market has felt more vibrant than usual. This is actually the type of trend we had in 2017 where many real estate professionals said things like, “It seemed like the market just kept going.” Well, technically the market did slow, but I understand why people said that.

DOWNLOAD 90 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

It’s not that dull
The numbers are hot technically
A new tech company in town
FHA on the prowl
Stop waiting for multiple offers
Rent control communication
Kurt Cobain’s house
Fewer multiple offers this season
How to find school boundaries
California price record
Sellers are still disconnected

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Not that dull: Last year many thought the market was at a tipping point because it just felt dark. Sales volume was slumping in a big way and inventory was spiking as buyers stepped back from the market. But today things feel much different in light of low mortgage rates changing the feel of the market. In fact, most price metrics have seemed flat this fall and it took eight less days to sell this November compared to last year at the same time.

Sifting hot numbers: Price metrics have been more glowing lately, but I advise taking these with a grain of salt. The thing is last year the stats were depressed, so when we compare normal numbers today with dismal stats then, it tends to make things look really hot. My advice? Over these next few months be aware of more sensational data due to lackluster stats from last year. Otherwise if we’re not careful we might end up thinking the market is much hotter than it actually is.

A new tech company in town: There’s yet another new tech company playing the local market. This time it’s an outfit called Reali, which appears to be a discount brokerage, but they say they have AI too. Thanks to Mudge on Twitter for the photo of this listing in East Sac.

FHA has been up: For years FHA has been shrinking because there are more conventional products that can readily compete with FHA. But these past few months we’ve seen a bit of an uptick in FHA. This is nothing massive, but it’s worth noting and maybe indicative of an appetite among first-time buyers to get into the market. Last month 21% of sales were FHA in Sacramento County and this past month we saw 19% of all sales. This is up slightly from FHA tending to hover closer to 17-18% or so for the past couple of years. Again, this isn’t something major, but my curiosity is at least piqued.

Accept the offer: We are not in a market with a crazy number of multiple offers. This is exactly what the stats show. Here’s a look at the number of offers among all current pending sales. My advice to sellers? If you get one reasonable offer, it’s probably time to accept it rather than waiting for a mythical unicorn buyer to swoop in and pay more.

Uh, rent control communication: Rent control is a new dynamic and there is going to be a learning curve when it comes to communicating about it. Just yesterday I spotted several listings that mentioned how rents can be raised or how rent control didn’t apply. My advice? Know the letter of the law and how it’s going to be different in the City of Sacramento as well as California. Locally we have two different sets of rent control to consider, and they are similar but not the same. In case it’s useful I did a rent control Q&A a few weeks back. This isn’t a super sexy topic to read about because it’s technical. But these details matter and for anyone who works in real estate it’s time to know the fine print.

Doesn’t smell like teen spirit (hopefully): Kurt Cobain’s former house in Seattle is for sale at $7.5 million. As a guy who loves 90s music I’m definitely watching this. If you’re interested, here’s a history of sales, permits, and other stuff from the Assessor. Remember, if you buy a house that is famous because of a former occupant or something that happened there, you might have people coming by. In fact, here’s a picture I took while visiting Seattle a couple years ago. By the way, think of the marketing opportunities…. “Come as you are,” or “Nevermind about other homes…”

Fewer multiple offers: There’s been fewer multiple offers lately, but that’s a normal part of the fall season. At this time of year there’s simply not as many eyeballs on listings which means there’s also fewer offers. This underscores exactly how important it is to price for the market that actually exists today rather than the more aggressive trend in the spring.

School boundaries: Here’s a quick screencast I put together for a friend on how to find school boundaries. This can come in handy to be able to quickly find boundaries for all schools (not just the district). This can matter at times for pulling comps too.

California new high price record: We have a new record in California as the “Beverly Hillbillies” mansion sold for about $150M. No, this doesn’t mean your property is worth more now. The highest residential sale ever in the United States is an apartment in New York at $238M (it was several apartments combined actually). I’ve read about a flip in SoCal that is supposed to come to the market eventually for $500M…. We’ll see.

Disconnected sellers: Last but not least, sellers are still lagging behind the trend. What I mean is the market has slowed, but sellers are stuck in the past and expecting to command lofty prices from super hungry Bay Area Buyers. They think everything is selling cash too when in fact only 15% of the market was cash last month. It’s like sellers are showing up to a party with Z Cavaricci pants and “Can’t Touch This” t-shirts. They didn’t get the memo that style has changed… Okay, that got weird.

News 10: If you think this post is absurdly long already, you’re right. Here’s a piece I did on News 10 this morning though on gentrification in Oak Park. I pulled some cool stats and honestly I was pretty excited to see my stats so large on the screen too. Haha.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FIVE THINGS TO TALK ABOUT:

1) SLOWER GROWTH (with an asterisk): Price growth has been slowing. It’s what the stats are telling us. Though technically the monthly and quarterly data below show higher price growth this year. But take this with a grain of salt because the market was REALLY dull last year. So when we compare numbers this year with dismal stats from the last half of 2018 it tends to inflate the numbers today.

2) PRICE CYCLES: Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. What do you notice?

3) LAST YEAR vs THIS YEAR: All year long most price metrics have been up about 2-4% each month compared to last year, but these past two months they’ve been higher. This is likely due to stats sagging last year during a really dull 2018 fall season. Additionally, mortgage rates went down a few months ago and we’re likely seeing some of the effect of that.

4) VOLUME SLUMP: We’ve been having a definitive sales volume slump since mid-2018, but lately volume has been stronger. In other words, sales volume has been up for three out of the past five months. This is something to keep on the radar. It’s not a volume meltdown, but it’s definitely been a slower year.

5) LAST MONTH vs THIS MONTH: The market looks pretty flat in some categories from October to November. But in other ways we still see the market slowing. For anyone who says we are not having a seasonal slowing, please look closely at all the images in this post. We are. It just hasn’t been as dull as some other fall seasons.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month. Also, if you’re in Placer, be careful about only looking to Placer data because limited sales can mean numbers jump around quite a bit from month to month.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 90 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What sort of predictions are you hearing (or making) right now? What stands out to you about the market? Anything to add?

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Street names & hot stats with an asterisk

November 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 17 Comments

I have two things on my mind. Street names and super “hot” market stats. Then for those interested I’ve include my big monthly market update below.

Two things:

1) Street Names: Just for fun, could a street name actually affect value? I mean, if it was really off-color, would buyers pay less because of a name? In my mind it seems iffy because I’ve never seen a name that would actually deter buyers. Yet the middle schooler in me can think of some examples that might work… Anyway, after a conversation on Twitter, here are some of the more random street names in Sacramento. What funny or odd street names have you seen?

2) Hot stats with an asterisk: Last year we experienced a REALLY dull market in many places across the country. If you remember mortgage rates ticked up and it was as if a dark cloud was looming over the housing market. I’m bringing this up because stats last year were depressed. Thus when comparing last year to more glowing or normal numbers today it can make recent price figures look really sexy. My advice? Over these next few months be aware of more sensational data due to lackluster stats from last year. Otherwise if we’re not careful we might end up thinking the market is much hotter than it actually is.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

Summary: The numbers are “hot” this month. Prices are up to a greater extent than they’ve been most of the year, inventory is down, pendings are strong, and sales volume has been up too. Part of the reason why the numbers are so stellar is because last year’s numbers were dull, but some of the hotness stems from low mortgage rates a few months back too. In other words, strong pendings from the summer finally closed in October.

DOWNLOAD 90+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

It’s been a normal fall so far
FHA buyers have been hungry
Zillow bought their first house
Anemic housing supply
Celebrity flippers are coming
Rent control doesn’t apply to every property
Market crash vs recession
Strong million dollar market
Slowing price momentum
Overpricing is still an issue

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal fall so far: Not all fall seasons are created equal. What I mean is some falls are duller than others, and this year so far has seemed to be a stronger season. Granted, prices are still softening like we’d expect, but it’s nothing like the painfully dull fall we had last year when some thought the market was about to take a big turn.

Hungry first-time buyers: Last month FHA was 21% of the market in Sacramento County. It’s been over two years since we’ve seen a month with 21% of the market go FHA. For years FHA has been declining because there are conventional products that can readily compete, but so far in 2019 FHA is up 5.6% in Sacramento County.

Zillow’s first purchase in Sacramento: About a month ago Zillow entered the Sacramento market and they just closed on their first house. It was a $560,000 private sale in Carmichael. On a related note, a piece came out in Forbes this week about iBuyer models paying close to market value. Look, we need to remember the credits these companies are getting from owners are padded into the purchase price. So instead of reducing the price to account for repairs, iBuyer tech companies are keeping the price higher and getting a credit for repairs within the purchase price. This is a huge advantage because it makes it look like the price is even closer to fair market value.

Anemic housing supply: Last week the big news was sellers are spending an average of 13 years in their homes instead of 8 years. As a result we’re seeing fewer homes hit the market. This is surely in part a consequence of eight years of historically low mortgage rates. We now have millions of owners with less incentive to list because they’re sitting on a low rate with equity.

Celebrity flippers are coming on strong: A few weeks ago I couldn’t sleep and I snapped this image while watching television at 4am. This flipping program aired simultaneously on four major networks. My advice? Be careful. We all want financial freedom, but you can spend thousands of dollars on these seminars to obtain “secret” flipping knowledge you can probably get for free.

Rent control does not apply to single family homes in Sacramento: I have an exhaustive Q&A post on rent control coming soon, but for now I wanted to mention something important. Rent control in the City of Sacramento only applies to properties within city limits with two units or more that were built prior to 1995. It does NOT apply to single family homes. However, if an investor owns ten or more properties under an LLC (and a couple other scenarios), rent control can apply. Keep in mind California has some differences between Sacramento rent control. Here’s an overview of rent control in California with a video link to a lawyer talking through rent control dynamics.

Ready for the market to crash because of a recession: Some prospective buyers are waiting for a recession in hopes of the market crashing, but real estate doesn’t always crumble when a recession happens. In fact, sometimes prices even rise. Here’s a video I made to talk through the past five recessions in Sacramento. This is a huge topic right now.

Strong million dollar market stats: The million dollar market has been growing. We really are in a market of outliers where we’re seeing some of the highest prices ever (Sellers, don’t overprice because of this). For reference, the top three sales ever in East Sacramento have all sold this year.

Slowing price momentum: Overall price growth has slowed down from years ago. This isn’t a shocker because I’ve been beating this point to death for the past couple years at least. What I mean is prices are moving forward still, but it’s not the type of rapid growth we saw in early 2013.

The plague of overpricing: Sellers these days are fixated on glowing stats and they’re often thinking the market is more competitive than it actually is. It’s like sellers are saying, “The market is SO hot and I’m going to get tons of offers,” but then buyers are like, “OK, boomer” (sorry, had to fit that in). Seriously though, overpricing is an enormous problem for sellers among all ages, price ranges, and locations. My advice? Price according to similar homes that are actually getting into contract. Remember, the market in later November and December is usually the slowest time of year. If you’re priced right you’ll likely get one or two offers, but if you’re priced too high you’ll likely get zero.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FIVE THINGS TO TALK ABOUT:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: Price growth has been slowing. This isn’t my idea or agenda. It’s what stats are telling us. This market is still very competitive when priced correctly, but it’s not a market with hefty price appreciation.

NOTE: Two of the categories above are showing slightly more price growth in 2019 compared to last year. But remember, when looking at data for October or the past 90 days, we have to consider how dull the market was last year.

2) PRICE CYCLES: Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. What do you notice?

3) LAST YEAR vs THIS YEAR: All year long most price metrics have been up about 2-4% each month compared to last year, but this month they were a little stronger. This is likely due to stats sagging last year during a really dull 2018 fall season. Additionally, mortgage rates went down a few months ago and we’re likely seeing some of the effect of that.

4) VOLUME SLUMP: We’ve been having a definitive sales volume slump since mid-2018, but lately volume has been stronger. In other words, sales volume has been down fifteen out of the past eighteen months. But sales volume has been up for three out of the past four months. This is something to keep on the radar. It’s not a volume meltdown, but it’s definitely been a slower year.

5) PRICES ARE SOFTENING FOR THE FALL: The market generally slowed in October, which is expected for the time of year.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 90+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What’s the wildest street name you’ve seen before? What market trend above stands out to you the most? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Does the market really change every seven years?

October 22, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

The market changes every seven years. And now it’s ready to take a big turn. Have you heard that? Is there really such a thing as a “seven-year rule”? Is it legitimate? Let’s talk about it.

A FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER

1) Behavior: The market doesn’t have to behave a certain way every seven years. Bottom line. Case-in-point: We’ve had almost eight years of price growth in Sacramento in the current price cycle.

2) There is a cycle: Sometimes we only hear about the market being “hot”, but there really is a rhythm over years where prices go up and down. In many locations the market tends to change every decade or so, so I get why people believe in the seven-year rule. But keep in mind some markets are more flat over time rather than super cyclical like California (big point).

3) Talking in a range: I’m not a huge fan of being dogmatic about seven years, so I prefer to hear things like, “The market tends to change every 7-10 years or so.” Of course this type of statement might be totally off in some areas of the country, but in my market I get it when people say this because of historical data.

Now to some new images…

PRICE CYCLE IMAGES: I used the Freddie Mac Price Index to tell the story of the market over four decades. I like this price metric because it goes back 40 years. I’d love to use MLS instead, but that only goes back 20 years. Anyone have a different metric suggestion?

How long were the past few UP cycles before the market turned?

CALIFORNIA
1980s: 7.9 years
1990s: 10 years
Current: 7.5 years

SACRAMENTO
1980s: 7.1 years
1990s: 8.6 years
Current: 7.7 years

How long did the past few DOWN cycles last?

CALIFORNIA
1980s: 9 months
1990s: 5.5 years
2000s: 5.6 years

SACRAMENTO
1980s: 17 months
1990s: 5.9 years
2000s: 5.9 years

NOTE: It’s tempting to try to predict this next cycle based on the past few, but be really careful with that. There is no rule that says the market always has to behave the same.

Bonus (Adjusted for Inflation): I adjusted for inflation here to help compare dollar amounts over decades (and to satisfy econ / grad student friends who prod me about this).

OTHER CYCLE CHARTS: I have other price cycle charts based on MLS data over the past 20 years. I have charts for Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, & El Dorado County. See my big monthly market update (scroll to “price cycles”).

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

MAKE THIS GRAPH FOR YOUR MARKET?

Do you want to know how to make a price cycle graph? I made a template to help you do this. Download my template and follow the instructions in the Excel file. If you make something, please tag me online or email me. I’d love to see what your market looks like. Here’s a video tutorial. Here are a few more tutorials also.

Questions: What stands out to you in the images above? Any other thoughts about price cycles?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

When sellers care too much about the Zestimate

October 16, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

A seller’s Zestimate is really low and he’s pretty worried about it. It might seem a bit vain to care so much, but the seller is concerned since he’s heard buyers might offer less on his home if Zillow’s estimate is too low. Is that legit? Let’s talk about it. Then for those interested I have a huge market update below.

Three things about sellers caring too much about Zillow:

1) Some buyers need education: Some buyers do get hung up on Zillow, but these buyers are very likely the minority. Frankly, a buyer putting more weight on Zillow than actual comps or neighborhood trends is simply coming to the market as misinformed.

2) Obsession means more: If a home really is worth more than a Zestimate, buyers will recognize that and offer accordingly. In other words, the vast bulk of buyers won’t be getting stuck on a lower Zestimate when they know value is there. Will some? Maybe. But let’s remember the obsessive nature of buyers today. They scour all homes as soon as they hit the market, they’re in tune with every price reduction, and they often get a sense for what is both overpriced and underpriced in a neighborhood because they’re paying such close attention. Thus to think a buyer in today’s big data climate would forget about all the hours of obsessive research and get stuck on a Zestimate is out of sync with how buyers are approaching the market today.

3) Matching the list price: The irony is the Zestimate might actually end up chasing the list price when the home does come to the market. This doesn’t always happen, but there are numerous examples online of a Zestimate being really low only to be changed within days of the listing to match whatever the list price ends up being. Here’s a lopsided example I noticed with a Chip & Jo house and here’s a recent example from Jim the Realtor in San Diego.

NOTE: I wrote about Zillow two weeks in a row. It won’t be three next week.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

If I had to boil down the market to a few phrases I’d say fairly normal stats, slumping sales volume, modest price growth, overpricing sellers, and some hesitancy among buyers. Ultimately stats are showing about what we’d expect for this time of year, which is why I’m saying the market feels mostly normal. This doesn’t mean there aren’t red flags of course.

DOWNLOAD 90+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Stats feel mostly normal
Not every fall season is the same
Rent control hasn’t stopped the market
Year-over-year price growth is modest
Sacramento is busting landlords for MJ
Distressed sales hardly exist
Volume was up this past month (but it was still a low month)
We’re about to have a new soccer stadium

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Prices likely peaked for the season: Prices have been flattening or softening in most areas in the region. This doesn’t mean the market is dull or not competitive. It simply means prices are softening and we’re not surprised because that normally happens around this time. For reference, the median price often dips about 5% or so during the fall.

PG&E shutting off power: If you didn’t know, PG&E shut off power to more than 700,000 customers for a couple days last week in light of a perceived risk of fire. I’ve been asked if this is going to affect the real estate market. Here’s my take. If this became a frequent issue it’s hard to imagine buyers not considering it when making offers and choosing where to live. If this is an isolated incident though, it’s likely to have no real impact. Of course one other layer here is we could see buyers expecting or appreciating generators being present.

Not all falls are equal: It’s good to remember not all fall seasons are created equal. What I mean is sometimes the fall season will feel pretty dull with larger price cuts and other times the market just feels a little more flat. The verdict is still out on what this coming fall season will look like exactly, but there is no mistaking we are in the midst it now.

The last run on the market before Thanksgiving: There is typically a last run on the market about this time of year. Now that everyone is settled in from vacations and the kids are in school, we usually see a last move to buy before the holidays arrive. This is exactly why there is almost always an uptick in sales volume in December. It’s not that there are more homes that actually sell in December. It’s just there are a higher number of pendings from October and November that end up closing in December.

Rent control: The market hasn’t stopped because of rent control in the City of Sacramento. I wanted to mention this because sometimes we lose sight of seeing the market in the midst of strong feelings and sensational headlines. When looking at 2-4 unit sales there were slightly more this September compared to last year, and pendings are fairly normal for the time being. This doesn’t mean everything is going to be peachy. I’m not saying that at all. I only want to emphasize the market is still moving and over time we’ll understand how it’s all going to play out. By the way, I’ll be doing a rent control Q&A soon.

Modest price growth: Last month we saw most price metrics were up about 2-4% compared to the same month last year in 2018. This is much more subdued growth compared to previous years.

Busting landlords for illegal marijuana grows: The City of Sacramento has been busting landlords for tenants growing cannabis over the legal limit (six plants). This is a huge deal and something to watch because some landlords have been getting excessive fines (we’re talking hundreds of thousands of dollars). This story is seeming to fly under the radar, but there are huge implications for property rights and investing in Sacramento and beyond. The silver lining for many landlords though is the courts have seemed to shoot down the city’s tactics lately.

Meth houses & El Camino: If you’re a Breaking Bad fan you probably already watched El Camino. It only seemed fitting to share the DEA’s published list of known drug labs. Unfortunately the list has not been updated in years, but it’s better than nothing. Here’s a study also on the impact of drug labs on surrounding homes (PDF).

Distressed sales: Ten years ago distressed sales dominated the market and were about 80% of all sales in the region, but now they’re hardly even 1% of sales.

Slumping sales volume: It’s been a lower year of sales volume as we’re down about 7% compared to last year. I know that doesn’t sound like much, but it does translate to about 2,000 less sales. I wouldn’t call this a market meltdown, but we’ve definitely seen a slowdown since sales volume has been lower 15 out of the past 17 months in the Sacramento region. This is still on the lower side of normal, but it’s something to watch over time to understand exactly what it means.

Hesitancy: Buyers are picky about getting into contract as well as staying in contract. On top of that some buyers are feeling hesitant. They wonder if we’re near the peak for this cycle, so they feel less confident about playing the game.

New soccer stadium: We’re finally getting an MLS soccer team in Sacramento after years of drama. Someone asked me if this will affect the market. In short, the stadium is only one piece of the pie in the entire Railyards development. There will be 6,000 to 10,000 housing units and millions of square feet of commercial space including a Kaiser campus. So buyers focus on the entire package including the stadium rather than saying, “Yo, I’m only buying because of the stadium.” Oh, and buyers located multiple miles away are very unlikely to look at fresh neighborhood listings now and say, “Dude, I’m totally going to pay more because there’s a soccer stadium ten to twenty minutes away.”

Soccer KCRA interview: By the way, I did an interview with Channel 3 yesterday about the new soccer stadium.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FIVE THINGS TO TALK ABOUT:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market has continued to show price growth, but it’s been a more modest rate of growth. This is why I’m saying the market is slowing. Let’s remember “slow” is not a dirty word in real estate.

2) PRICE CYCLES: Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. What do you notice?

3) LAST YEAR vs THIS YEAR: Last year the market felt dark and many wondered if it was about to take a turn downward. That hasn’t been the vibe so far this year though. Most price metrics are up 2-4% or so this year. I’m not saying the market is perfectly healthy, but it feels profoundly different this year so far. It’s amazing what happens when mortgage rates slide down and help the market feel more normal….

4) VOLUME SLUMP: Volume was actually higher in September compared to last year at the same time, but it was still a pretty low September. In fact, in Sacramento County it was the second lowest September over the past 11 years. It’s important to remember last year was painfully dull, so it’s not all that hard to have a higher sales volume this year, right? The bigger story is sales volume is down in the region by about 7% over the past year. Moreover, volume has been down in the region for 15 out of the last 17 months. This is definitely something to keep on the radar. In my mind this is one of the most important trends to watch because it tells us whether buyers have their foot on the gas or brakes.

5) PRICES ARE SOFTENING FOR THE FALL: The market generally slowed in September in terms of price growth. This is why I’m saying prices feel a bit flat (even though they’re up from last year). This is normal for the time of year.