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Unemployment Rates

An unemployment update & 2014 economic outlook

January 24, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

I hope your week has been fantastic so far. If you can give me a minute, here are two quick things to digest.

1) The Unemployment Scoop: New unemployment rates have been posted, so I wanted to give you the lowdown for national, state and local trends. Check out the graphs below and feel free to use them on your blog or in your newsletter. What are the rates at for December 2013? United States (6.7%), California (7.9%) and Sacramento County (7.7%). The jobless rates have continued to decline, which is good news on one hand because the economy seems to be on the rise. Yet on the other hand the labor participation rate is really low, which means less people are working and some are not moving back into the labor market. In short, since the labor force has seen a steep decline over the past five years in particular, it can make the job improvement numbers look a bit sexier than they really are. I mention this because it’s an important asterisk when looking at unemployment data. Yes, the economy has been improving and there are some positive things stirring locally, but we still need more jobs (and good ones).

2) Economic Report: If you haven’t seen the Sacramento Business Review that is put out by Sacramento State, it’s worth a read as it gives an economic forecast for 2014. I recommend you DOWNLOAD THE REPORT (pdf file), save it to your desktop and read at your leisure.

sacramento real estate market trend graph unemployment by sacramento appraisal blog

sacramento real estate market trend graph unemployment 4 by sacramento appraisal blog

sacramento real estate market trend graph unemployment 3 by sacramento appraisal blog

sacramento real estate market trend graph unemployment 2 by sacramento appraisal blog

Question: Any thoughts or questions? Comments are welcome below.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: economic forecast in Sacramento, EDD, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, real estate trends, Sacramento 2014, Sacramento Business Review, Unemployment Rates

Crystal Balls, Real Estate Trends & Black Friday

December 2, 2013 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

As the year fades away it’s now time for the beginning of what I call crystal ball real estate posts. What do I mean? Everyone will be speculating about what is going to happen in the 2014 market, and most posts will make very vague predictions. Since I don’t personally own a crystal ball, I’ll steer clear of some of that, yet I still want to point out some fundamentals to watch. Let’s think together below.

jobs interest rates and median sales price by sacramento appraisal blog

Watching the Layers: I keep mentioning the idea of the multi-layered real estate cake analogy. I don’t mean to be repetitive, but the gist of this analogy is that value in a real estate market is like a multi-layered cake since there are many “layers” in the market that help impact or create value. As you can see above, when “layers” like interest rates and unemployment are low, it tends to create space for values to rise. At the same time, it’s important to realize the Fed can artificially manipulate a market by lowering interest rates, which means jobs end up playing a lesser role in driving the housing market. This is definitely part of what happened with our recent real estate boom (doesn’t sound too healthy, right?).

jobs interest rates inventory and median sales price since january 2001 to 2013 by sacramento appraisal blog

Now let’s add in the extra “layer” of housing inventory. I know this is a busy graph, but spend a minute digesting what is happening here, and then I’ll make things easier on your eyes by zooming in on the trends.

jobs interest rates inventory and median sales price by sacramento appraisal blog

After years of declining values, the Sacramento market hit the bottom in the first quarter of 2012. Can you see that above? It’s important to note that as values began to increase, there was a huge drop in inventory and interest rates persisted to decline – both of which put upward pressure on home prices.

jobs interest rates inventory and median sales price since january 2011 by sacramento appraisal blog

Keys for 2014: Investors, low inventory and historically low interest rates have been the X-factor in the most recent value boom in the Sacramento area. It helps of course that the unemployment rate has been trending downward, but there is still quite a bit of healing needed for the local economy. As you can see in the graphs above, housing inventory and interest rates have begun to increase lately, which has been putting pressure on rising values. Personally I tend to think interest rates moving up a bit will matter less than what happens with inventory. Rates are still very low and their increase does make a difference with how much buyers can afford, but ultimately the market feels far more sensitive to inventory increasing. At the same time, cash purchases have been declining for two quarters, which is also helping to cool off values from an unsustainable rate of appreciation. It’s also worth mentioning that it will matter if Blackstone goes for Round 2 or not. Last year this one investment fund purchased anywhere from 1100-1500 houses (depending on whose numbers you use). They have been seemingly slowing down for the time being, but if they decide to ramp up their local focus again, it could effectively make the market more competitive by decreasing inventory.

appraisal christmas ad spoof

By the way, this is my spoof appraisal ad for Black Friday. What do you think? I posted this on my Facebook page last week for fun. My advice: Even though I want your business, don’t buy anyone an appraisal for Christmas.  🙂

Questions: Any thoughts, insight or stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Blackstone, Blackstone in Sacramento, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, interest rates, Inventory in Sacramento, real estate market trends, real estate trend graphs, Sacramento real estate trends, things that impact value, Unemployment Rates

Is unemployment tied to Sacramento real estate?

July 31, 2011 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

I have a guest post up today entitled “Is unemployment tied to Sacramento real estate” on Sacramento Real Estate Voice. Thank you Gena Riede for inviting me to post. Go check it out and give it some love. The post really focuses on sales and unemployment rates over the past few years in the Sacramento area and takes a specific look at Folsom, Galt, Rancho Cordova & North Highlands. Here is an example graph from the post. It’s amazing to me to see figures like this.

Visit my guest post HERE. Thanks so much.

If you have any questions, or real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs in the Greater Sacramento Region, contact Lundquist Appraisal by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook or subscribe to posts by email.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Folsom Real Estate Appraiser, Folsom Real Estate Market, Folsom Unemployment, Galt Real Estate, Galt Real Estate Appraiser, Galt unemployment rate, Gena Riede, Gena Riede Realtor, guest post, North Highlands real estate, North Highlands Real Estate Appraiser, North Highlands unemployment rate, Rancho Cordova Real Estate, Rancho Cordova Real Estate Appraiser, Rancho Cordova Unemployment Rate, Sacramento Real Estate Voice, Unemployment Rates

The Galleria mall fire & unemployment in Placer County

October 25, 2010 By Ryan Lundquist 1 Comment

Here are the latest unemployment rates for all cities and CDPs in Placer County as of September 2010 per EDD. For reference, the unemployment rate in Placer County in Sepetember2009 was 10.9% (as opposed to 11.5% in September 2010). It’s not a surprise to see an increase in umeployment over the past year since that is happening all over the Sacramento Region.

It’ll be interesting to see if there is an increase in unemployment in the Roseville area next month in light of the Gallteria mall burning last week. This of course assumes companies will not be able to provide work for employees over the next few months as the mall is rehabbed and also that employees live locally in Rosevile and Rocklin. It’s reported, for instance, that Macy’s will relocate their Galleria employees until the work has been completed, but there is nothing definitive yet about what Nordstrom will do. In the mean time too there is a “Keep Shopping in Roseville” page on Facebook.

Do you know anyone that works at the Galleria Mall? How have various employers and employees handled the situation thus far?

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: Fire at Galleria, Galleria Mall in Roseville, Lundquist Appraisal Company, Macys, Nordstorm, Placer County unemployment, Real Estate Appraiser, Real Estate Market, Roseville Galleria Mall, September 2009 unemployment rates, Unemployment Rates

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First off, thank you for being here. Now let's get into the fine print. The material and information contained on this website is the copyrighted property of Ryan Lundquist and Lundquist Appraisal Company. Content on this website may not be reproduced or republished without prior written permission from Ryan Lundquist.

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The information on this website is meant entirely for educational purposes and is not intended in any way to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or any sort of value conclusion for a loan, litigation, tax appeal or any other potential real estate or non-real estate purpose. The material found on this website is meant for casual reading only and is not intended for use in a court of law or any other legal use. Ryan will not appear in court in any capacity based on any information posted here. For more detailed market analysis to be used for an appraisal report or any appraisal-related purpose or valuation consulting, please contact Ryan at 916-595-3735 for more information.

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