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market trends in Sacramento

Real estate locusts & low-income neighborhoods

October 10, 2012 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

There are big investors in town right now playing the Sacramento market like Monopoly. Rental funds with multiple millions of dollars have been devouring the lower end of the market like real estate locusts. This has made rental funds instant mega-landlords and simultaneously caused many would-be owner occupants to have fewer opportunities to buy into lower-income neighborhoods.

Let’s talk about this phenomenon. There is a bit more opinion than usual from me in this post, but it’s timely and relevant for discussion. I really want to hear your take, so please comment below.

Image purchased by Lundquist Appraisal and used with permission. Image credit a href='httpwww.123rf.comphoto_11557434_fake-money.html'123bogdan  123RF Stock PhotoCash Competition: It’s very difficult for lower-income buyers to compete with so much cash right now. This is America. I’m not saying we need to create hurdles for hedge fund rental investors or script laws against the free market. Owning property is one of our inalienable rights after all. I’m only saying it may not be best for longterm neighborhood stabilization when landlord investors with deep pockets are buying properties on such a massive scale. For example, there were six recent flips in the past 30 days in one particular subdivision, and a rental fund investor swooped in to pay cash for all of them as soon as they hit MLS. That’s the free market and I don’t judge any buyer, seller or agents involved, yet here we see how big money has trumped owner occupancy and simultaneously increased the rental rate in a neighborhood that was ripe for owner occupants. These investors typically pay top dollar or even overpay to obtain assets, which is helpful for property values in the short-term. But one must ask, what is the potential impact to lower-income neighborhoods if cash keeps winning like this over time? What will it look like in a number of years when these homes hit the market for resale? What if the market doesn’t perform well and all these homes are dumped?

Morality and stabilization: There is of course no moral obligation for sellers to sell to owner-occupants, and absolutely nothing wrong with investing in real estate either. Please don’t misunderstand me. Here is some food for thought though when it comes to long-term neighborhood stabilization in lower-income areas and the phenomenon we’re seeing in today’s market with rental funds:

  1. Owner-occupancy increases stability: Lower income neighborhoods often need all the help they can get. Selling to owner occupants helps to stabilize neighborhoods and can help increase property value over time because of a more stable element in the community.
  2. Landlords galore: It’s TBD how well rental funds will manage their massive portfolio. One investor contact told me a particular fund is writing 1,200 offers per month in the Sacramento area. Can you imagine the massive amount of rentals this fund will have to manage? Do they have the systems in place to do an effective job handling their portfolio? That’s the question. Moreover, what if they don’t mow lawns, take care of deferred maintenance or screen tenants? How will this impact neighborhoods? By the way, one of the aforementioned properties above that sold to a huge rental investor has been sitting vacant for nearly six weeks and has grass one foot tall already.
  3. Less farm agents: There are often few “farm” agents in lower-income areas, so there is less of a connection to the community, which may make it easier to sell to rental fund landlords.
  4. Appraisal issues: Let’s be honest. It’s not easy for sellers to deal with lower appraisals and the headache and hurdle of two appraisals on a flipped property (when required). Multiple appraisals can be a death-blow to an owner when one comes in at a higher level and the other comes in lower. The lender will often go with the lower appraisal.
  5. The allure of cash: What’s more attractive? A full price cash offer asking for no concessions or credits, or an offer over asking that will net slightly more, but there may be loan or appraisal issues? Since cash is king, it gives hedge funds more power in the market. It’s simply an easier and understandable road for sellers in many cases too.
  6. Community building: Each neighborhood needs to do its own work to improve its plight. Improving neighborhoods is not the responsibility of the real estate community. Bottom line. Change comes from within – especially change involving curbing blight. However, there are still outside market forces to consider as big money on Wall Street can impact the number of home owners on “Main Street”, which in turn makes it more challenging for lower-income neighborhoods to improve over time (especially if hedge funds are not upstanding landlords).

Questions: What are the long-term consequences, if any, of rental funds buying up the market? How do you see this playing out? Do you think hedge funds are capable of being good landlords on such a massive scale? How do you think owner occupancy can be increased in lower-income neighborhoods? I’d be curious to hear of any strategies, resources or programs available. If you are an agent, how are you helping buyers compete with so much cash right now?

If you have any questions or Sacramento home appraisal or property tax appeal needs, let’s connect by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email (or RSS) or “like” my page on Facebook

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Market Trends Tagged With: appraiser in Sacramento, hedge fund investors, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, market trends in Sacramento, paying all cash, rental fund investors, Sacramento Real Estate Market, Wall Street investors in Sacramento, Wall Street meets Main Street

Dipping unemployment in Sacramento County

July 4, 2012 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

It’s that time again for a monthly unemployment rate update. For the second month in a row unemployment is at 10.5% in Sacramento County (May 2012). As you can see in the graphs below, unemployment has been declining over the past year and is down from the peak of 13.2% in July 2010. It is important to keep in mind the unemployment rate dropped nearly an entire percentage point just a couple of months ago, so we’ll see in coming time if the rate around 10.5% is a blip or not.

By the way, the Sacramento Bee recently added an interactive unemployment map on their website. I recommend checking it out to see a visual history of unemployment in all counties throughout California over the past several years.

Have you been seeing small improvements in the job sector? I’d love to hear your two cents and any stories you might have.

Unemployment in May 2012 in Sacramento County - Graph by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Unemployment in Sacramento County 1990-2012 - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

All things considered, we are definitely not out of the woods yet as far as the local economy goes, but a decrease in the unemployment rate is a step in the right direction.

Do you want to share these graphs? If the graphs above would be a relevant resource for your clients or blog readers, please feel free to share. If you need a larger size for a presentation or newsletter (or your blog), let me know. Please see my sharing policy for details. As always, thank you for linking back to me and keeping my images intact. It’s a huge honor when others share my content.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: economy in Sacramento, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, market trends in Sacramento, May 2012 Unemployment, Sacramento Bee Interactive Unemployment Map, unemployment in California counties, unemployment in sacramento county

Unpacking the real estate market in Sacramento

May 15, 2012 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

I don’t read calculus books for kicks, but I do like numbers. It’s really interesting to watch the trends in our real estate market in Sacramento to consider where we’ve been, what is happening now and where we might go. Take a minute to check out these graphs below and let me know what you think. What do you see?

Months of Housing Supply in Sacramento Placer Yolo El Dorado County as of April 2012

Not many houses for sale: We’ve seen a huge drop in housing supply in the Sacramento area. Check out the graph above of Sacramento, Placer, Yolo and El Dorado Counties. Source: Trendgraphix, Inc.

Sacramento County and Placer County median price graph by Joel Wright

Sacramento vs. Placer County: It’s interesting to see Placer County and Sacramento County median sales prices juxtaposed. I’m particularly interested to see how the trend evolves in the next six months. There is a slight uptick evidenced as of late and the Sacramento Association of Realtors blog reported an increase in median sales price level in April also. Only time will tell to see how that further unfolds. This graph comes from Joel Wright of Wright Real Estate (used with permission).

Unemployment Rate January 1990 to March 2012 Sacramento County - by Sacraemento Home Appraiser

The Unemployment Saga: How is unemployment doing in the Sacramento area? Here is a historical glimpse of unemployment in Sacramento County from January 1990 through March 2012. I keep a running graph each month like this. If you need a larger size for a presentation or your blog, let me know (just keep my blog URL in the graph and see my sharing policy). Data source: EDD.

Unemployment Rate Sacramento County January 2009 to March 2012 by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Current Unemployment Trends: As of March 2012 the unemployment rate per EDD in Sacramento County is 11.4%, which is similar to the rate during June 2009. It’s been so nice to see a decline from the high of 13.2% in July 2010, but there has been a slight uptick lately as you can see above. Unemployment rates tend to fluctuate, so it’s understandable to see the rate experience a little increase during recent months, but we just need it to decline to see housing improve. Bottom line.

Sacramento County and California Graph Median Price by Wright Real Estate - Joel Wright

California vs. Sacramento: How does the Sacramento area stack up against price trends in the rest of California? This graph shows the median price in California compared to the Sacramento area. The graph comes from Joel Wright of Wright Real Estate (used with permission).

distressed sales vs conventional sales in Sacramento - graph by Calculated Risk

Distressed vs. Traditional Sales: The Calculated Risk blog has some pretty amazing content. Be careful when you visit though because you might get stuck there for a while. The graph above is used with permission and is taken from a post that deals with distressed vs. traditional sales in Sacramento. The blog post states, “In April 2012, 60.7% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was up from 59.6% last month, and down from 66.8% in April 2011. This is lower than the last few years, but 60% distressed is still extremely high!” This is right in line with what I’ve been saying all along too as I’m cautious about focusing on smaller bits of good news in light of the overall context of the local economy and housing market. Granted, there are some positive signs with low inventory, small price increases and distressed sales going down, but we have a long way to go. Read more with two recent posts “Juggling short sales and foreclosures in Sacramento” and “Weighing the distressed market in Sacramento.” Click HERE for a larger image of graph above.

What stands out to you? I’d love to hear your comments below.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: appraiser in Sacramento, Calculated Risk Blog, distressed vs traditional sales, EDD, graph of unemnployment 2009-2012, graph of unemployment 1990-2012, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, market trends in Sacramento, Real Estate Market in Sacramento, REO and Short Sales in Sacramento, sacramento real estate blog, unemployment rate March 2012 Sacramento County

Unemployment in Sacramento County Since 1999

March 12, 2012 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

Here is a glimpse of the unemployment rate in Sacramento County over the past 10+ years from 1999-2012. We’ve seen the rate drop from the peak of 13.2% in July 2010, and lately the county is flirting with unemployment around 11.0%. The most recent rate statistics for January 2012 from EDD shows an unemployment rate at 11.1% in Sacramento County.

What stands out to you about the graph?

January 1999 to January 2012 Unemlpoyment Rates in Sacramento County

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: appraiser in Sacramento, EDD, Graph of Sacramento County unemployment, Home Appraiser, Important metrics for real estate, market trends in Sacramento, Unemployment Rate in Sacramento County

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First off, thank you for being here. Now let's get into the fine print. The material and information contained on this website is the copyrighted property of Ryan Lundquist and Lundquist Appraisal Company. Content on this website may not be reproduced or republished without prior written permission from Ryan Lundquist.

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