Who is buying in today’s housing market? Some say it’s only the wealthy or institutional investors, and first-time buyer are missing in action. What do stats show when we look at forty local neighborhoods? Let’s find out.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
10/18/24 Prime Real Estate (private)
10/22/24 Culbertson and Gray Group (private (I think))
10/23/24 SAFE Credit Union (details TBA)
10/29/24 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/7/2024 Think Like an Appraiser (3 hours) TBA
11/19/24 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A 9am
12/5/24 Made 4 More Team (Exporting Data from MLS)
1/24/25 PCAR Market Update (details TBA)
2/6/25 She Invests event (TBA)
4/8/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
QUICK THINGS TO KNOW
The market isn’t the same: Not every neighborhood or price range is experiencing the same exact trend.
Sellers need to see this: In today’s market, it’s key for sellers to understand there is a limited pool of buyers. I hope these graphs can help drive home that point.
Demographics: Both 55+ Sun City neighborhoods have normal volume (uncommon to see), and that speaks to people not putting off retiring. Yet, Del Webb volume in Elk Grove is down, so this is also about location in Placer County.
Higher prices vs lower prices: Generally, higher-priced areas are doing better with volume as these buyers are less sensitive to interest rates and affordability. That’s why in some higher ranges we only see volume down by 20% (that’s actually good for today). Yet, it’s a mixed bag because volume isn’t robust in all higher-priced locations. Ultimately, there is no mistaking lower prices have been hit really hard as many entry-level price points are down in volume by 40% or more.
Interpreting good and bad: Today, if volume is only down 15% to 20%, that’s actually really good. That might sound strange to say, but being down by 30% or so is pretty much the norm right now. My advice? Compare 2024 with a year like 2019 (or the average of 2016 to 2019). Don’t get caught up comparing today with 2021 because that was typically a heightened migration year. A few areas doing “good” this year include Folsom (down 21% from the pre-2020 avg), Granite Bay down 22%, and Lincoln only down 13%. In contract, Oak Park is down 49%, Rocklin is 33%, East Sac is 30%, and El Dorado Hills is 33%. In short, like I said, the norm is being down 30%. But areas like Tahoe Park and Meadowview are down closer to 50%. Yikes.
Things to keep in mind: Some areas don’t have many sales, so be careful about interpretation. Also, certain locations have more new construction, which can matter. For instance, Anatolia looks strong in 2024, but it’s new homes listed on MLS that made the difference.
A QUICK RECAP INSTEAD OF 40 GRAPHS
Okay, since this morning I made two recap images to quickly summarize the volume trend. These are in order from worst to best volume. One image was too long, so it had to be two.
VOLUME IN 40+ NEIGHBORHOODS
Scroll to see an area you’re interested in. I asked people on my socials which neighborhoods they wanted to see, and here are many of them. I couldn’t get to everything, but this is a good start. If you need larger versions, please email me.
IF YOU WANT THE GRAPHS:
Email me if you want all the visuals (larger versions). Happy to share. Please use them as you see fit on your socials, bu don’t cut and paste my post verbatim. See sharing policy.
I hope this was interesting or helpful.
Questions: Does anything surprise you above? What are you noticing about volume in the market right now?
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Great information Ryan. Winters is another location with a lot of new construction in Metrolist. Filter out the new construction numbers and you’ll see a big decline in sales volume.
And as you point out, it’s difficult to use sales comparison to figure out values these days, especially for non-conforming homes or small markets.
Thanks Joe. Yep, new construction makes a huge difference in Wilton. Same with Anatolia. Could be he case in a few other areas. And yeah, very challenging to value today when we’re missing so many sales.
Such Great info! I wonder if the recent growth of the Yuba/Sutter/Plumas Areas are effecting the surrounding areas.. I’d love the opportunity to see the comparison if possible. As an agent and resident of this area I have been curious about the recent growth in the area and what factor the housing market has been.
Love your blog btw! Following this blog has helped tremendously in learning market trends. Regardless of area, thank you for your work! It has been a tremendous resource as a young entrepreneur.
Thank you so much Chanel. I really appreciate it. You know, I’m talking with someone right now about doing a big market update in Yuba County soon (next month). If that pans out, I’ll have more to push out on Yuba & Sutter. I did share some market update visuals last week for Yuba and Sutter, but nothing in this post. Thanks for the kind words. Please keep me posted with anything you’re seeing out there.
Great information. It’s always interesting to see which neighborhoods are performing better than others and why.
Thanks Gary. Agreed. It’s also nice to see giant pumpkins perform…. I hope your pumpkin regatta went really well. I can’t believe the size of that thing.
Hi Ryan,
Can you share some data for Roseville 95747 zip code please?
Hi Kevin. Sure, send me an email. This is a ZIP code where more new construction lately has been listed on MLS, so keep that in mind when you see the visual.
Wild to see that 2021 bump and it’s impact on average sale count in comparison to 2019.
Exactly. And that’s why I don’t use 2021 as a point of comparison. It was just so different in many areas. I think 2016 to 2019 sets a good baseline. But in truth, 2000 to 2019 isn’t that much different. I’ve run the numbers. It just seems awkward to me to use so many years (and a number that is a little larger than more recent years).
The wealthy and institutions seems to be more active in the current housing market dynamics for some reasons. For instance, wealthy investors and institutions have greater financial resources at their disposal, while first time buyers face various barriers, including high property prices, rising costs of living, and insufficient savings. Student debt and other financial obligations can hinder their ability to enter the housing market.
Thank you. Yeah, the way I look at it is people who have cash are less sensitive to higher mortgage rates. Technically, the number of cash buyers has been stable over the past few years in the midst of sinking overall volume. This underscores the point exactly.