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Pent-up demand & glowing new construction

September 19, 2023 By Ryan Lundquist 7 Comments

There is some serious pent-up demand building. The number of sellers who have not listed their homes this year is really starting to add up – not to mention a growing pile of buyers. And speaking of building, new construction has been glowing this year. Let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
9/26/23 Orangevale MLS Meeting
9/28/23 Yuba City Big Market Update (in Yuba City (register here))
10/4/23 KW Sac Metro Big Market Update (register here)
10/6/23 How to Think Like an Appraiser at SAR (register here)
10/27/23 AI Fall Conference (San Francisco) (register here)

13-MINUTE INTERVIEW WITH NPR

I did a 13-minute interview last week with our local NPR station, Capital Public Radio. And yes, I mentioned Taylor Swift when talking about inflation.

PENT-UP DEMAND IS BUILDING

I hear many real estate professionals say things like, “Bro, if rates drop to 6%, it’s going to be wild.” I get it because there have been so many buyers and sellers on the sidelines. This year we’ve seen 7,700 fewer new listings in the Sacramento region compared to last year and nearly 12,000 compared to the pre-2020 normal. In short, even if we take the smaller number here, there are close to 8,000 people who did NOT list their home this year through August (and about 7,000 fewer sales compared to the pre-pandemic average). So, yeah, there is some serious pent-up demand among both buyers and sellers, and at some point these people are going to want to move when affordability works for them (or their lifestyle or economic situation warrants a move).

10,000 HOUSEHOLDS

Look, we talk about pent-up demand all the time, but let’s put some numbers to the conversation. By the end of 2023, it’s very likely we’re going to see about 10,000 fewer new listings compared to last year (which was already a low year). It’s sobering to think there are potentially ten thousand households who may want to move as soon as circumstances allow. This certainly doesn’t mean they are all going to jump in the market at once. I’m just saying in the background we have some serious unmet demand building.

STUBBORN RATES

By the way, rates have been stubborn above 7%, so it seems wise to plan on them being higher, and delighted if they go lower. I’m all for being optimistic in life, but a sharp rate downtrend seems really hopeful. I could be wrong, but I’m a big fan of being realistic about the market that actually exists and not getting too hyped about what could happen in the future.

GLOWING NEW CONSTRUCTION

Now I’d like to share some new construction numbers. I’m excited for these visuals, and I put these together thanks to stats from North State BIA.

A SOURCE FOR PERMIT DATA

First, here is a cool source for permit data from the US Census Bureau. You can look up any state and county, and I pulled four local counties. The wild part to me is to see how close Sacramento County and Placer County are right now considering such a vast population difference.

NEW VS OLD

New construction volume has been robust this year. It’s been the second highest year of new sales over the past decade besides 2021. This has been stunning to watch, and I don’t recall many in December 2022 predicting new construction volume would be so strong. Yet, here we are.

SAGGING OLDER SALES

In contrast, the existing sales market (older homes) has shown the exact opposite trend with sagging volume. Keep in mind the existing market is so much larger, so higher new volume hasn’t been able to make up for all the missing buyers today. In other words, new home construction isn’t the savior for total volume. One last thing. There have been nearly 12,000 sales so far this year, which reminds us buyers are still here. I mention this because sometimes the narrative is that nobody is buying, and that’s fake news.

WHERE ARE PEOPLE BUYING?

Here’s a look at the top cities for new builds last month. I feel like a broken record to say Roseville took the top spot again. I find Roseville typically represents about 25-29% of total volume.

NOT THE HIGHEST YEAR EVER

It’s been a solid year overall for new homes, but years like 2002 through 2005 were higher. I know, I’m such a killjoy, but I wanted to share some wider context. It would be great if we could see levels like 2002 again, but it’s not in the cards at the moment. Besides, there likely isn’t enough labor to build that fast anyway.

NEW HOMES ARE A BIGGER CHUNK OF THE MARKET

New homes sales represent over 25% of the entire regional market so far this year in 2023. What I mean is when we add the existing market (blue) and new construction (yellow), new homes this year are 25% of everything. This is why I keep emphasizing new construction in my market talks. If you’re a real estate professional and not in tune with new construction, why not?

Here’s another way to look at it. I prefer the bar chart above, but we can fight about it in the comments if you think otherwise. And remember, it’s not that there are vastly more new homes this year, but the issue is the number of new homes is a greater percentage of everything.

TWO MORE GRAPHS THAT NOBODY ASKED FOR:

I know the top one is chaos, but I wanted to share the madness of what putting two decades on one graph looks like (don’t do this at home, kids).

THE ASTERISK NEXT TO GLOWING STATS:

Without concessions and rate buydowns, we would NOT be seeing strong new construction volume. Bottom line. I know, builders have the benefit of attention from consumers since there are less sellers listing their homes, but in my opinion the stronger force for creating potent volume this year has been concessions to buyers. A few weeks ago, I talked with a buyer who got a $20K price discount, 2% credit for closing costs, and a rate buydown. It’s stuff like this that is making ALL the difference.

TWO PEOPLE TO FOLLOW:

Here are two individuals on the cutting edge of talking about new construction. I highly recommend following both on Twitter (X) or LinkedIn.

– Rick Palacios Jr with John Burns RE Consulting
– Ali Wolf with Zonda

I hope this was helpful.

Questions: Any thoughts about pent-up demand or new construction? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Is it 2007 again in the housing market?

September 12, 2023 By Ryan Lundquist 22 Comments

Is it 2007 again? There’s so much talk online about today’s housing market being like 2007, but what are the stats showing? Today I want to walk through three parts of the market. I suspect many locations are experiencing the same trend as Sacramento too. Skim by topic or digest slowly.

A brown background with some blocks that say, "normal" (crossed out in red). There is a white background rectangle with the title of today's post in black also.

It’s a strange market today with low volume and low supply. It feels a little amateurish to call it weird, but that’s a pretty good description.

THREE WAYS TO COMPARE 2007 & 2023

1) INVENTORY IS NOT BUILDING LIKE BEFORE

One thing that is REALLY different today is inventory is not building like it did in 2007. Supply has actually been subdued in today’s market as sellers have pulled back from listing their homes, and that’s the opposite of what we saw between 2005 and 2008. In fact, when prices peaked in August 2005, housing supply literally tripled in one year in Sacramento. Prices weren’t all that impacted the first year, but in the background, there was a tidal wave of supply building. Look, I’m not trying to sugarcoat today’s market, but we have a different vibe today where supply is not showing 2007 vibes. Granted, this doesn’t mean the market is healthy today. I’m just saying it’s way different.

Housing supply is actually lower today than one year ago.

New listings are down 34% from last year and 44% from the pre-2020 normal. Basically, we’re missing 7,700 new listings in the entire region compared to last year and 11,900 from the pre-2020 normal. I don’t have stats for 2007, but do you see what was happening in 2008? Yikes.

2) LOW VOLUME TODAY FEELS LIKE 2007:

One part of the housing market that feels really similar to the previous housing crash is the number of sales happening (volume). In 2005 prices peaked, and while prices weren’t down all that much the first year, the real change was seen in volume falling off a cliff. In real estate it’s easy to obsess over prices, but the real trend is often seen with volume.

We’ve basically had the lowest volume we’ve seen through August, so today really does feel like 2007 in terms of volume.

Not to beat the dead horse, but here’s another way to look at volume.

3) COMPETITION DOESN’T SMELL LIKE 2007

The stunning part about today’s market is how competitive it is in the midst of some of the worst volume ever. This is why I often call today a hybrid market. It’s like 2007 volume and 2020 competition gave birth to 2023.

Here’s a different way to compare competition in 2023 and 2007. Any dot above the 0% line went above the original list price, and anything below went below. Striking difference, right?

And days on market:

CLOSING THOUGHTS:

First of all, what happened last time isn’t the new template for every future housing correction, so even though I’m ironically writing a post about 2007, let’s remember that 2007 isn’t the new formula for every future downward cycle. With that said, today’s housing market feels like 2007 with volume, but it’s an entirely different beast with low supply, intense competition, and very few foreclosures. Ultimately, it’s not accurate to call this 2007 because it feels so different. Every time someone says it’s 2007, a puppy dies. Okay, that’s probably not true, but we do need to let stats form our narrative.

Though like 2007, we’re in a place where it would be healthy for prices to come down so more buyers and sellers can participate. The reality is sellers sitting back this year has so far catered toward keeping prices higher rather than fostering more much-needed affordability. I know, to some people it sounds like real estate sin for me to say this, but we have an affordability problem, and it’s not a healthy dynamic to see higher prices with lower volume. That’s not good for buyers, sellers, or real estate professionals.

What’s going to happen ahead? It’s impossible to predict the future with certainty since we’ve not had a market like this before. We have ideas for how long sellers might sit out, but the truth is nobody knows for sure. What happens with rates is a huge factor, and rates have persisted to be stubbornly high. No matter what, it’s important to not minimize the struggle of affordability today. In a traditional system low supply can help keep prices higher, but we’re not in a traditional market today, so over time we’re going to find out which is the more meaningful force. Affordability or low supply.

For now, we have a market that feels very stuck with a good chunk of sellers and buyers on the sidelines. It won’t be this way forever, but we seem poised to continue to see low volume and low supply until something changes the trajectory of the trend (rates, economic pain, etc…).

It does feel like 2007 in some ways, but in other ways it’s just so different.

—————— LOCAL HOUSING MARKET RECAP ——————

I have so much to say about today’s housing market, but let’s keep this short and sweet. I’ll push out a ton of stuff these next two weeks on my blog and my socials. Basically, we’re experiencing a pretty normal seasonal slowing so far. It does not feel like the crash-landing market last year in 2022 where most metrics saw incredibly sharp change. Basically, all the metrics are showing pretty normal seasonality so far (and they’re even more competitive than the pre-2020 normal). It looks like prices and volume have peaked for the year, which is normal to see. It’s worth noting we’re starting to see slightly higher prices compared to one year ago. Of course, volume is depressed and inventory is still sparse, so it’s a strange market.

SHARING POLICY:

Please share some of my images on your socials or in a newsletter. Here are 6 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

ANNUAL STATS

Remember, some annual stats like volume get a little weird because we’re now comparing today with a slumping market last year. But we still need to know these numbers, so I’m going to be pushing them out.

EL DORADO STATS:

Someone in the comments asked about El Dorado stats. Send me an email if you want some stuff. lundquistcompany @ gmail dot com.

MONTH TO MONTH:

JUST A FEW IMAGES:

I hope this was helpful.

Questions: What are you seeing out there in the market? What stands out to you above? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

More cash buyers in today’s housing market

September 7, 2023 By Ryan Lundquist 27 Comments

There are more cash buyers right now. Bottom line. Well, technically. Today let’s unpack the housing market’s cash trend, some myths, and things to watch ahead. This post is designed to scroll by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
9/26/23 Orangevale MLS Meeting
9/28/23 Yuba City Big Market Update (in Yuba City (details TBD))
10/4/23 KW Sac Metro Big Market Update (register here)
10/6/23 SAR Think Like an Appraiser (TBD)
10/27/23 AI Fall Conference (San Francisco)

CASH PURCHASES HAVE BEEN INCREASING

Ever since mortgage rates shot up in early 2022, we’ve been seeing more cash buyers. The uptick has become very noticeable lately in Sacramento, and probably in other markets too. The percentage of cash buyers this quarter so far is 21% of all sales. That’s nothing compared to 32% in 2012 when investment funds were playing the market like Monopoly, but we are still seeing a growing trend at the moment technically (see below).

BUT THERE’S AN ASTERISK (PLEASE READ)

Yes, there is more cash right now as a percentage of all sales, but it’s not that there are so many cash buyers flooding the market. What I mean is when you look at the number of cash buyers over the years, we aren’t seeing a crazy high level today technically. But what we are seeing is the cash buyers that are here today represent a greater percentage of the sales that are happening (see graph above). Does that make sense? It’s as if buyers who aren’t tied to what happens with mortgage rates are finding it easier to play the game today.

IT’S A CASH SANDWICH

We are seeing more cash at the bottom and more at the top. It’s like a cash sandwich. This is a normal dynamic with more investors purchasing stuff at the lower end and higher-dollar buyers flexing cash at the top. I shared this chart yesterday, and people were blown away at the percentage of cash above $1M, though there is always more cash at higher levels (this percentage is still a little higher than usual though).

Here’s another way to look at the same data. I think this is a cool way to see the trend, but I’m not sold on this image either. Thoughts?

DON’T BLAME INVESTMENT FUNDS

It’s easy to blame the cash trend on investment funds. I can’t tell you how many times I hear people say things like, “Dude, Blackrock and Blackstone are buying everything and destroying the housing market.” Look, I’m not an investment fund fanboy. I’m just saying the stats don’t line up with that narrative. The truth is investment funds are NOT playing a noticeable role in Sacramento region housing market right now. As far as I can tell, Invitation Homes hasn’t purchased anything in Sacramento since last summer.

DON’T BLAME IT ON THE BAY AREA

It’s also easy to blame the local trend on Bay Area buyers, but some recent stats from John Burns Real Estate Consulting suggest Bay Area outbound migration has gone cold, and Sacramento is NOT a hot inbound migration either at the moment. This sort of lines up with the word on the street from what I’m hearing from the real estate community too. Keep in mind this doesn’t mean there are zero Bay Area buyers. It’s just the fire hose of pandemic migration has seemed to turn into a slower drip.

AIM FOR THE MARKET – NOT THE UNICORN

It’s easy to aim for a Bay Area unicorn buyer who is going to drop fat stacks of cash and overpay. My advice? Aim for the market.

IT’S NOT THE iBUYER MODEL

The market shifted last year, and the iBuyer model has suffered. Opendoor currently owns 42 properties in the Sacramento region, and while they look to be trying to turn things around, just over one year ago they owned over 300 units at any given time, so they have really cut back. I would mention other iBuyers, but Zillow, Redfin, and Offerpad all stepped back from the market (failed), so the iBuyer model locally is basically Opendoor.

CASH DOESN’T ALWAYS MEAN INVESTOR

It’s easy to think cash represents only investors, but there are many buyers who purchase owner-occupied units with cash, so cash stats aren’t the end-all solution to determining the number of investors. With that said, in my experience the number of investors is often pretty close to the percentage of cash buyers locally. Here’s a cool tool by Redfin to gauge the percentage of investors in many markets across the country. Their stats show a 17% investor share in Sacramento. Over the years I’ve noticed John Burns Real Estate Consulting tends to show a little bit higher. In short, if someone said we have about 20% investors locally, I wouldn’t bat an eye. That seems legit.

WHERE IS CASH COMING FROM?

Someone asked me where the cash is coming from, but that’s not a question I can answer. The joke on Twitter is that it’s money laundering, but I’ll let you decide on that. Haha. If someone has a way to research this, I’m open ears. By the way, speaking of cleaning money, did you watch Ozark? Loved it.

THERE IS HOPE FOR BUYERS

While cash has been increasing, let’s remember 79% of the market is NOT cash. I think sometimes the narrative is that nobody can compete with cash, but that’s not actually what the stats show. For instance, $400,000 to $500,000 is an incredibly competitive price point in Sacramento County, but only 12.9% of sales were cash in this segment last month. Isn’t that a powerful stat? All I’m saying is we have to let the stats form our narrative instead of imposing a narrative on the market. It’s easy to get clicks and attention when we say “Blackrock is cutting out first-time buyers,” but that’s fake news in the local market.

DOES CASH ALWAYS PAY LESS?

I know this visual is a hot mess, but work with me. Anything above the 0% line went above the original list price last month, and anything below went below. In short, it’s not just one thing with cash buyers. 51% of cash transactions over the past couple of months went below the original asking price, 36.6% went above, and 12.4% sold at exactly the original price. These percentages are a little softer than the rest of the market in terms of going above, so it tells me cash buyers do tend to go a little lower than the entire market. Or maybe they’re getting better deals after properties have been lingering. There are many ways we can look at this. Ultimately, it’s not just one thing. Every escrow has a different story.

CASH BUYERS BID UP IN THE FIRST WEEK

It’s during the first week where cash buyers noticeably go above the original list price. And the longer a property is on the market, the lower it tends to sell when dealing with a cash buyer. But honestly, this trend looks just like the rest of the market, so there isn’t anything different here. What this shows us is cash buyers have to compete with everyone else to get it done. In other words, cash isn’t so strong that it’s somehow exempt from the market trend.

A MISTAKE BY CASH BUYERS

One mistake I see cash buyers make is to think they have so much power since they’re bringing greenbacks to the table. Look, sometimes cash is super convenient or necessary due to condition, but financed deals end up being all cash to the seller after escrow closes. And the vast bulk of the market is financed locally (79% lately). In short, if you’re coming with cash, you still have to compete and make a strong offer in the midst of a market with limited supply.

MORE AFFORDABILITY WILL CHANGE THESE STATS

Affordability improving will lead to be more financed buyers, and that can quickly change the total percentage of cash buyers in the market. For now, we’re in a place where there is a smaller pool of buyers, and a growing percentage of them happen to be cash at the moment. We’re missing nearly 40% of buyers from the pre-pandemic average, which is sobering.

I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing with cash in real estate right now? Anything to add? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The eye-candy of assuming a loan

August 29, 2023 By Ryan Lundquist 41 Comments

Assumable loans are eye candy in today’s housing market. The idea of taking over somebody’s 2.5% loan sounds amazing, right? It’s technically possible on paper for some loan types, but it’s challenging to pull off in the real world. Yet, if mortgage rates remain high, this is something we’re likely going to hear more about, so it’s important to know the process.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
8/29/23 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
9/06/23 KW Roseville Big Market Update (register here)
9/26/23 Orangevale MLS Meeting
9/28/23 Yuba City Big Market Update (in Yuba City (details TBD))
10/4/23 KW Sac Metro Big Market Update (register here)
10/6/23 SAR Think Like an Appraiser (TBD)
10/27/23 AI Fall Conference (San Francisco)

IT’S RARE TO ASSUME A LOAN (FHA, VA, & USDA)

I’m not a loan officer, so I won’t step out of bounds here, but it’s basically possible to assume an FHA, VA, or USDA loan from a current owner if the loan servicer is cooperative and everything else lines up between the buyer and seller. Conventional loans are NOT assumable, but I’ll defer to loan officers if there are rare cases where that can happen (seriously, talk to a loan officer). In short, it has to be the perfect storm of the right buyer, right seller, and right loan servicer to make an assumption happen.

UPDATED NOTE: A few people have said current FHA loans are not assumable, but everything I’m reading online from lenders and HUD directly seems to show FHA loans are assumable. My advice? Talk to a loan professional and the loan servicer. I defer to them.

HOW MANY LOCAL LOANS CAN BE ASSUMED?

Here’s a snapshot of FHA & VA transactions since 2009 in the Sacramento region. Of course, some of these properties have sold again already, but this is a general picture of how many potential assumable loans are out there. The real prize for a buyer would be purchasing from a seller who bought during the past few years when rates were really low (though many of those owners are sitting instead of selling).

WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE MARKET IS ASSUMABLE?

Okay, but what percentage of the market has sold in recent years with loans that could theoretically be assumed in the future? In 2020 nearly one out of every five homes sold with FHA or VA, and since then it’s been about 15% of loans.

A LOCAL LISTING EXAMPLE

Here’s a property in West Sacramento that was purchased in 2020 with FHA financing, and the listing advertises, “Seller offering a possible loan assumption at 2.75% as part of purchase price.”

BIGGEST HURDLES TO ASSUMING A LOAN:

1) Paying the difference: The buyer has to pay the difference between the loan amount and the equity the owner has. This means if a property has a $400,000 loan, but it’s worth $525,000, there is a big chunk of change for the buyer to bring to the table. Some loan officers tell me it’s possible to get a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) to pay the difference, but I’ll defer to lenders on that. All that said, it seems like buyers putting 20% down are often decent candidates to assume a loan because they can absorb the difference between the loan and value in many cases.

2) It can take a long time: I mentioned loan assumptions in a Facebook thread a few days ago. I heard about one local loan assumption taking FIVE MONTHS, another taking three months, or a quick one at 30 days. Look, maybe this process can be seamless once in a while, but can you imagine being in contract for five months without a guarantee of success? That is going to take a very particular seller and buyer, right? Moreover, if there are multiple offers, the seller is unlikely to choose the buyer wanting to assume the loan. This reminds us market conditions can either foster more or less loan assumptions.

3) The loan servicer isn’t always cooperative:

There are situations where the loan servicer simply denies the loan assumption. One real estate agent told me loan assumptions are basically a buzzword because they’re difficult to pull off. Sounds about right.

THIS MARKET REQUIRES CREATIVITY:

There is no sugarcoating assuming a loan as an easy process, but I think this market requires creativity. My advice is to understand the process, advertise the idea of an assumption if the seller is on board, talk to the loan servicer prior to listing, and help educate everyone on the process. Oh, and realize this is still a unicorn event that requires the perfect storm of everything coming together. This isn’t for the faint of heart, but it will work in some situations.

OKAY FINE, MORE NEW VISUALS

You wanted more visuals? This post is getting longer already, but okay. I put these together a few days ago, and I hope you like them.

CLOSING ADVICE:

My advice? Don’t put much hope in loan assumptions, but know how it all works so you can at least be aware of options. Like I said, it’s going to take the right buyer, right seller, informed real estate professionals, and a cooperative lender. When loan assumptions do happen locally, try to find out how the deal came together. The truth is buyers are starving to afford the market, and assuming a seller’s loan is going to help a small sliver of buyers out there. Ultimately, if rates remain high, this is going to be something more people are thinking about, and it’s possible we could see more loan assumptions ahead for that reason. If the market gets more competitive though, loan assumptions are the last thing sellers are going to target.

I hope this was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Anything to add about loan assumptions? Any stories to share? Could it matter for comps if we start seeing more loan assumptions? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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