Sacramento Appraisal Blog - Market trends and real estate appraisals for divorce, estate settlement, loans, property tax appeal, pre-listing and more. We cover Sacramento, Placer and Yolo County. We're professional, courteous and timely.

Pulling Comps on a Governor’s Mansion

April 30, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 14 Comments

Last week I got to tour one of the most interesting listings in California right now, and I have a few thoughts about comps. If you didn’t know, when Ronald Reagan was governor of California, he began building a huge mansion in Carmichael, and this unicorn property is now listed for sale.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

A BRIEF HISTORY OF THIS ESTATE

The State of California built a Governor’s mansion in the 1970s in Carmichael, which is about 10 miles from Downtown Sacramento. This mansion began construction under Ronald Reagan’s leadership, and he would have likely lived there, but it was not completed until Jerry Brown took office (Brown refused to live in this house, which he dubbed “The Taj Majal”). This home located at 2300 California Avenue has 8 bedrooms, 8 full bathrooms, and is just under 12,000 square feet of living area (11,984). If you want more information about where Reagan lived in Sacramento, check out a post I wrote years ago.

CURRENTLY LISTED FOR SALE AT $7.5M

This estate is now listed for sale by Hattie Coleman. It’s been on the market now for almost 200 days. Check it out here. Thanks for letting me tour the place last week. I’ve been meaning to get out there, and I’m so glad I did.

AN OUTLIER ABOVE OTHER OUTLIERS

This mansion sold previously for $4,062,500 per MLS ($4.1M in Tax Records), and it was an outlier above other outliers in the entire county. It originally sold from the government in 1983, but I’m not sure what the price was then.

And here’s a look at Carmichael sales compared to the mansion. This is a good reminder that comps may not necessarily come from Carmichael. More on that below. Where would you choose comps?

THE ZESTIMATE CHASES THE LIST PRICE

I had to check, and sure enough, the Zestimate chased the list price when this home was listed for sale. The Zestimate was at $5.2M, but as soon as it listed, it jumped to $7.1M. Look, online estimates are interesting, but I put zero weight on any of them. Like I always say, Zillow can’t smell if 20 cats live there. I just like to point out how this works because I think some consumers place too much emphasis on the Zestimate while not seeing the games that happen behind the scenes. And you’re telling me it was only worth $2M in 2021 before jumping to $5M in 2024?

And here’s Homes dot com. Again, I don’t put any weight on these estimates. I just think it’s interesting to watch so we can compare these to what the property actually sells for.

SOME PICS OF THE PROPERTY FROM MY VISIT

I took these pictures last Friday when visiting the property. This is the largest Mid-Century Modern home I’ve personally seen. It doesn’t get too much bigger than this in Sacramento when it comes to size. As you scroll, check out the time capsule next to the fountain. It’s not to be opened for another fifty years, and I wonder what’s in there. Look at those doors too. Imagine what those would cost today.

WHAT DO WE DO FOR COMPS?

In real estate text books, comps are easy. There are always three model match sales in a one-mile radius over the past ninety days. But in this case, this property is a total outlier. What would someone pay for something with a substantially-larger lot size and square footage – not to mention some cool California history? On that note, are there bragging rights to own a home like this?

QUESTIONS I WOULD ASK ABOUT COMPS

I don’t have a perfect answer for comps because this is a unicorn property, but here are a few ideas swirling through my mind. I suspect we would have to ask all of these questions if trying to value the home.

What would it be worth without the history? And does the history add extra value?
What is the land worth? (substantial lot size)
What did it compare to during the prior sale in 2004? Granted, we have to take previous sales with a grain of salt because the sale may or may not represent the way the market sees the property today. Moreover, the property has been refreshed, so it’s not necessarily the same home as back then.
What are buyers willing to pay in the region for stately homes? My graphs above show this estate sold above any other home in Sacramento County at the time. I mention this because sometimes we have to pull comps from much further away if warranted. Yet, we can’t forget this property is still tied to a location, so we have to be careful with this and make location adjustments if need. There is such a thing as too dissimilar though. I think of a real estate agent who told me the best comps were in Napa for his listing in Sacramento. Yeah, that doesn’t smell reasonable.
Where is the top of the price market? What is the most a buyer would pay for something like this before moving on to a different home?
Are there other homes with historic or almost historic significance that might be a good frame of reference?
What would this property cost to build today? Per Wikipedia, “In 1972, the legislature budgeted $150,000 for preliminary plans for the mansion and $1.3 million for the construction of the building.”
Are there any other non-residential uses possible for this estate? In my conversation with the public over the past week, I had a few people mention some potential uses beyond being owner occupied. What does zoning allow? And what is the highest and best use?
What other questions am I missing here?

POLARIZING REACTIONS

I find Mid-Century Modern homes can be polarizing. What I mean is people either love them or hate them. So, some look at this home and think it’s gorgeous, and others might think it’s really plain. That’s the nature of the beast with MCM architecture, I think. Ultimately, when it comes to real estate value, all that matters is what actual buyers think (we still get to have opinions though). Know what I’m saying?

Anyway, I hope that was interesting. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What do you think of this property? What would you do for comps? What did I miss? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

It’s not 2008 in the housing market

April 23, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

It’s not 2008 in the housing market. It’s so easy to flippantly compare today with the Great Financial Crisis, but let’s look at actual stats. How much do these years actually compare? I’m not sugarcoating the problem of affordability either. Let’s just be realistic about the numbers.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

WHAT WAS THE 2008 HOUSING MARKET LIKE?

I recently wrote about why home prices haven’t crashed, and I wanted to follow up with one simple visual. Check out days on market, the number of listings, and price change. The only thing that was better back then was sales volume (see below).

NOTE: There were about 10,000 more active listings in the entire region in early 2008 (but about 7,000 more in just Sac County).

STOP THE CASUAL 2008 COMPARISONS

I’m guessing the vast bulk of people who constantly juxtapose today’s market with 2008 aren’t sharing actual stats to substantiate their claim. So, the whole thing just feels like selling fear to get clicks for ad revenue. I think part of the problem is most stat sources don’t seem to go back beyond ten years, so there isn’t fodder for conversation. All I’m saying is let’s be realistic about the market that exists and concede it’s extremely unlikely to get 2008 results with 2026 stats. Having subdued supply in recent years has kept prices higher (only a little bit of price relief so far).

ARE SALES REALLY LOWER TODAY?

The one thing that’s lower today is the number of closed sales, and that’s especially bad since we’ve had population growth since then. However, volume was already recovering in 2008, so it makes sense to see more sales that year. What I mean is 2007 was our worst year of volume, and there were about 10,000 extra sales in 2008 compared to 2007.

NOT A HUGE FLEX, BUT WE’LL TAKE IT

I anticipate we’ll beat 2007 volume again in 2026 (just like we did last year), but beating 2008 levels won’t happen without a sharper change to affordability. And beating 2007 isn’t a huge flex either, but we’ll take it.

DON’T SUGARCOAT AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS

When I share stats like this, I sometimes get pushback because people think I’m trying to say everything is fine and prices only go up. That’s not what I’m saying though, and I can’t emphasize enough that we have a glaring affordability problem. Let’s just have honest conversation about why the housing market has continued to feel stuck without much price relief. Let’s also be realistic about any red flags.

IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT SELLERS

Lastly, let’s not forget to have empathy for many people who are currently locked out of buying a home in today’s market. I think sometimes affordability conversations have such a strong bias toward sellers and keeping prices high that we forget to think about buyers. Housing isn’t just about sellers though.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Are you having many conversations about 2008 vs today? What did I miss? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

AI in real estate & more buyers at the bottom

April 17, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Zillow can’t smell if 20 cats live there. I’ve said that for years, but here we are in a new era where so many consumers are using AI to understand value. So, it’s time to amend the statement. AI can’t smell if cats live there. I think we’re at an interesting place with AI and consumers, so I wanted to share some brief thoughts. And then I want to talk about a growing portion of the market – lower prices.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

It seemed fitting to have an AI image today (made with Grok).

BUT AI SAYS MY HOUSE IS WORTH…

I’m starting to get more conversations with clients and consumers based on what AI says. It seems like, “But AI says…” is the new “But Zillow says…” What I find to be unique about AI though is the conversations are going beyond just the home value. With AI, for me, it’s been more about what one particular item might contribute to the value or the return-on-investment for various improvements. I’ve had a client share the value of an ADU based on what ChatGPT says, and I had a recent client provide an itemized list of what they spent on improvements over the past four years and what AI says each improvement contributes to value.

TWO EXAMPLES OF QUESTIONS I ASKED AI:

I’m not saying these examples are accurate (be super careful with stuff like this). I am saying consumers are at the other end of the phone or desktop and asking questions. So, this is where real estate professionals have to be prepared for conversations.

I asked Grok about an HVAC:

I asked ChatGPT about the value of an ADU:

SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT AI

Be ready for more real estate conversations. AI feels like it’s going to help real estate conversations get deeper, and I’m here for it.
Don’t forget to fact check what AI says. Dig into some of the cited data sources. If we only read headlines and AI summaries, that can be dangerous.
AI is going to be valuable for business and valuing properties. I’ve only scraped the surface, but I’m blown away at what some colleagues are doing.
AI can make life efficient, but it can’t live for us, so we have to remember to build relationships with other humans. Look, I love technology, and we’re clearly advancing in some ways, but it seems like society is getting lonelier despite technology, and that’s a huge concern.
As a side note, I’ve noticed people use AI on me in two ways. Sometimes my profile pic is being sent through AI for speaking engagement flyers. It’s a little weird to be honest. I’d rather be shown “as is.” Last year somebody even put my profile pic in a suit instead of the blue shirt. Haha. The second thing I’ve noticed is a few people send my charts through AI and then strip out credit to me. This is a rarity, but it’s not cool. The wild part though is AI sometimes botches the columns and stats. Yikes.

Maybe AI me is hotter though. Onlookers might not see any difference, but my family thinks I look weird (AI version) because they know me best.

Now let’s look at a growing part of the market…

MORE STRENGTH AT LOWER PRICES IN 2026

Do you know where we’ve seen the most growth in closed sales volume this year? It’s at the lower end of the price market – particularly between $400,000 to $500,000. This isn’t true in every single local county, but it’s true in the region as a whole and many counties. My thesis is prices have dipped a little from last year, and that’s caused more properties to sell within lower price points.

Scroll down for twelve counties of stats like this.

ARE THERE MORE FIRST-TIME BUYERS?

It’s possible we have more first-time buyers, but I can’t really say for sure. There isn’t a perfect way to uncover this with MLS stats. I will say it’s a positive trend to see more sales at lower prices though since that’s a range where first-time buyers are playing the game. By the way, here’s financing and cash since 2009 (FHA alone is not a good metric to gauge first-time buyers).

A VIRAL NARRATIVE ABOUT FIRST-TIME BUYERS

The National Association of Realtors came out with some new stats this week to show first-time buyers are at record low levels, but there are some questions about the study. Look, it’s possible NAR is correct. I’m just not confident about their stats. I am not anti-NAR here either, so save your hate mail. These stats are from a national survey that got 6,103 responses across the country. This is the same 120-question survey mailer that was used to say first-time buyers are now forty years old (other sources don’t show that same age). I’m not aware of another data source that can confirm or contest this survey, but I’m open to suggestions if anyone has a preferred source.

TAKE A LOOK AT THE METHODOLOGY

Here is the methodology for this study. You can click here to see directly that this was the methodology for the screenshot above. I like other NAR stats, but I’m not willing to share their narrative from the survey. It’ll go viral everywhere, but I’m going to hold back on this one.

WE DO HAVE AN AGING POPULATION

All that said, we have an aging population nationally with a birth rate that is slowing, so it wouldn’t be surprising to me in decades to come to see more transactions at older ages. There is so much talk about a Silver Tsunami as Boomers grow in age. Just remember that not every Boomer is going to die and list their home in one moment. Here’s a visual from my ResiClub Pro Membership to show the share of population that is 55 and older. Interesting, right?

TWELVE COUNTIES OF DATA (FLEXING AT LOWER PRICES)

Check out twelve counties of stats to see what I mean about more strength between $400K to $500K. Take smaller counties with a grain of salt since three months of data isn’t much to work with, and recognize that some counties have had a struggle with volume this year (San Joaquin in particular). If you work in real estate, keep asking yourself which price points are growing and contracting. And if $400K to $500K keeps growing, connect with investors who may want to sell also.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: How are you seeing AI show up in real estate conversations? What are you noticing happening at lower prices right now?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Home prices, uncertainty, and the Iran War

April 10, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

Has housing momentum slowed? It feels like the market had more energy as the year began since affordability was mildly better, but here we are with higher rates and the Iran War. Yet, we’re also in the midst of a spring price increase and sellers coming back to the market, so this isn’t the same level of uncertainty we felt last year. Let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

1) UNCERTAINTY IS HERE AGAIN, BUT IT’S DIFFERENT

The curve ball for the 2025 housing market was uncertainty since sellers unexpectedly backed off the market last spring and summer. And now here we are again with another dose of uncertainty with the Iran War and higher rates. My sense is we haven’t seen consumers back off like they did last year though, so for now it doesn’t feel like we’ve hit a huge inflection point. Yet, I’m getting a sense of softening demand when talking with the real estate community, so it’s possible we could see this sentiment show up in the stats in a few months. Ultimately, it’s important to continue to watch how things unfold in Iran as well as at the gas pump, energy prices, etc…

But new construction volume was weaker than expected in March. Here’s a telling quote from Tim Murphy, who is the CEO of North State BIA. When talking about new construction in the Sacramento region, he said:

While March generally sees the highest number of new home sales in the area, It seems clear that buyers were concerned about the uptick in mortgage interest rates, skyrocketing gasoline prices, a falling stock market and other economic reactions to the war.

For some, it’s almost impossible to talk about this stuff without getting political, and I get it. But politics aside, consumer confidence and affordability matter for the marketplace, and that’s why we need to keep having conversation. Let’s just stay grounded and avoid sensationalism.

2) GOOD NEWS: SELLERS HAVING BEEN COMING BACK

On one hand, we’ve felt more uncertainty brewing, but through March sellers have actually been coming back to the market after notably backing off for the second half of last year. That’s why I’m saying it doesn’t feel the same as last year. Check out how the blue bars were up by 20% compared to the red bars in early 2025, but then the growth stopped. The positive news is we’ve had four months in a row now where new listings have outpaced 2024 levels, and this past month actually beat 2025. This is honestly great news because more supply is healthy for the housing market. In short, if sellers feel uncertain, it hasn’t showed up in the stats yet. Will this change in the future? Only time will tell, so we need to watch seller behavior closely.

3) BUYER DEMAND WAS STRONGER IN MARCH

March had a couple percent more sales this year, which is good to see, but overall buyer demand is basically the same as last year (very slightly ahead). Pick your poison. Call volume flat or get hyped over being technically just a little higher today. And remember, the worst part of 2007 was in the second half of the year – not the very beginning. Some people look at stats like this and say we’re worse than 2007 today. Well, that’s true for the beginning of 2007. Not true for the second half of the year. No sugarcoating though. Volume is incredibly low right now.

4) PRICES ARE DOWN & UP

Two things are true here. Price metrics are down about 1-2% from one year ago, but we’re also seeing a spring uptick in 2026 so far. So, they’re down, but there’s a seasonal gain happening too. Let me show you what I mean by starting off with year-over-year metrics being down.

Do you see an uptick happening for the spring of 2026 so far though? So, we’re clearly seeing some expected normal seasonality. But remember, part of the increase has to do with larger homes selling. And the median isn’t a perfect metric either (there is no perfect metric). In coming weeks, I’ll share a few Sacramento price indexes as they get published. These days, it’s a good idea to look to a few stats beyond the median and average. To date though, all five or six price metrics I’ve been watching have been telling the same story for Sacramento. Down a little from the previous year.

5) THE MARKET ISN’T THE SAME EVERYWHERE

It’s easy to say the same thing about every location, but the real estate market isn’t exactly the same, so it’s important to not try to fit every single location into one neat little slogan. Here’s a cool new visual I’ve been playing with to help show how properties sold compared to their original price. What do you think? Does this have potential? Yay or nay?

And some other visuals. It’s not a mistake that Land Park does NOT have yellow (there were zero sales at exactly the original price last month). By the way, Land Park and East Sac have been very competitive lately. No joke.

BIG MARKET UPDATE

And now for any onlookers who want some hardcore stats for twelve local counties, here you go.

BE CAREFUL ABOUT SMALLER COUNTIES

I’m hesitant to even push out stats in some areas because the numbers bounce around so much from month to month. As an example, let’s look at El Dorado County. This past month was down -7.5%, but the previous two months were up substantially. This is EXACTLY why it’s important to not build a narrative on one month of data (happens all the time though).

PAY ATTENTION TO OUR LARGEST LOCAL COUNTY

I find all local counties are basically experiencing the same trend, but the smaller areas bounce around more statistically. My advice? Stay focused on the trend in Sacramento, our largest local county. It serves as a bellwether for other nearby counties in my opinion. This doesn’t mean the market is exactly the same in every single price range and location, but we do tend to see all ships rise and fall with the tide though too.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATS IN 12 COUNTIES

Big counties. Small counties. I have them all. I changed my format a couple months ago. I realize this is a bit crazy because there are so many stats, so it’s maybe not as user-friendly. I think it packs a punch though with some pretty interesting stats. I was getting a little bored with the previous images. I’ll admit this is maybe too much though, so I’m open to feedback. Let me know what you think.