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Pretending it’s a seller’s market

July 1, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 13 Comments

Stop pretending. Those are strong words, but many sellers need to recognize the housing market has changed. Today, I have some advice, fresh price stats, and the skinny on what’s happening with listings. We are now done with the first half of the year, so let’s consider what the second half might look like. This post digests Sacramento trends, but many locations around the country have a similar vibe.

Skim quickly by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

7/16/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
7/31/25 Thomas Harris Event (TBA)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

THE BEST ADVICE FOR SELLERS RIGHT NOW

The best piece of advice I can give to sellers right now is to recognize a range of value exists. If I was going to sell a car, it’s not just worth $25,000 exactly. As if buyers would literally only pay that amount. Maybe a reasonable offer might be anywhere from $23,000 to $27,000. The same thing is true in real estate. We don’t want to look at a home and expect it is rigidly only worth $750,000. Maybe a reasonable range is more like $725,000 to $760,000. My advice? Don’t get stuck on the original price, get comfortable with a reasonable range existing, AND be open to potentially selling toward the lower end of the range.

SUPPLY IS GROWING MORE THAN DEMAND

We’re seeing the pile of listings grow more than the pile of sales, so the market has grown softer. We’re still not back to a pre-2020 normal number of listings, but the number of sales has been lackluster, so we’re really feeling the extra supply. In Sacramento, there are 40% more active listings compared to one year ago. It’s actually stunning though that we are only at this level after three years since mortgage rates more than doubled. This goes to show the housing market still feels very broken at the moment.

TWICE AS MANY LISTINGS AS THE BOTTOM

We are finally at a place where we are beating the number of listings from four previous years. This is a huge change from a year like 2023 when we had our worst year on record for the number of sellers listing their homes. Today, we literally have twice as many active listings in June 2025 compared to June 2023. In short, sellers are no longer frozen like they used to be. Yet, today’s numbers are still historically low. For reference, we had 8,900 more active listings in June 2008 (that’s 190% more than today’s levels).

SELLERS ARE NOT RUSHING THE MARKET

This year we’ve had 14.7% more new listings compared to last year, and that’s positive news. We want to continue to see sellers wake up. I realize about fifteen percent growth isn’t that much, but the market is really feeling it since the number of closed sales has been slightly lower than one year ago.

WHAT ARE PRICES DOING RIGHT NOW?

When asking people what they’re seeing with prices, I’m getting much more feedback that prices are going down. It’s still a mixed bag though where “flat” is also a strong word at the moment. These are two polls I did last week on Instagram and X (about 260 votes on my IG poll). Look, I don’t base my entire perception of the market on a poll. All I’m saying is people are starting to say things like, “Prices have dipped,” and the word on the street is something I listen to.

EARLY PRICE STATS (PRELIMINARY FOR JUNE)

It’s too early to publish a finalized median sales price, so please take June 2025 with a grain of salt. Overall, I just wanted to give some context to where we are at in general. Right now, we are down about 2% from one year ago (could change by next week). This shows a slight dip, and that seems about right when pulling comps in many neighborhoods. The region as a whole so far is up in June 2025 compared to one year ago, and we’ll see if that holds. Ultimately, expect that price stats in some areas are going to bounce around from month to month. Basically, prices have dipped, but they haven’t tanked like some think. Yet, I’m getting quite a few messages about properties that are just sitting. Do they need more time? Or has the market dropped more, but we aren’t seeing it in the stats yet?

NOTE: Median change doesn’t translate rigidly to every price range and location. Look to the comps to understand the market.

Here’s another way to look at it.

And here’s the region as a whole by the week for both the median sales price and average sales price.

WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR

Here are a few images to unpack what’s happening with buyers and sellers, and this might help us figure out what to expect ahead. Basically, we’ve likely peaked for the year for pendings and new listings, but the pile of actives should grow.

ACTIVE LISTINGS:

In a normal year, we typically see the number of active listings peak in late summer.

ACTIVE LISTINGS HAVE GROWN FASTER IN 2025

This year we are seeing active listings continue to grow (blue), and we should expect to see growth for a couple more months. It’s not that so many sellers are listing their homes, but we’ve seen fewer buyers participating, and that’s caused the pile of active listings to grow faster in recent months. I explained this with skateboard wheels recently. If rates continue to dip a bit, that could help the pile of active listings shrink some, but no matter what, we are no longer in a subdued market like 2023 where sellers were frozen like Han Solo in carbonite.

PENDINGS

The peak of the number of pending contracts typically happens in May in the Sacramento region as shown with this visual.

WE PEAKED IN 2025 & IT WAS MEDIOCRE

It looks like we peaked for the year in May for pendings, which isn’t a shocker, but these past few months have been really lackluster, so the peak just felt very mediocre more than anything. The thing we want to watch is what happens with rates and how that affects buyer behavior in the fall season. In 2024, we had a more vibrant fall for a couple of months when rates dipped, and it’s going to be interesting to see if we get a repeat. There is growing optimism ahead about lower rates, but we are still living with so much uncertainty, so we need time to see what happens. The thing to remember about today is we have 40% more active listings compared to last year. Moreover, buyers are also starting to hear about softening prices. So, it’s not the same exact dynamic as last year, and rates would likely have to go notably lower to offset an inflection point we’ve seen in recent months.

NEW LISTINGS

It’s normal to see seller activity peak in May in the region, and it typically remains pretty strong through summer.

STEADY GROWTH IN 2025 (15% MORE NEW LISTINGS):

Like clockwork, the number of new listings peaked in 2025 in May (blue), and we should expect a pretty normal seasonal trend ahead unless something changes seller behavior. All that said, growth has been tamer these past two months. I’m not ready to say sellers have backed off the market some. I’m just saying the growth in May and June was very modest compared to last year, and that’s something we want to watch (see blue vs red bars).

Thanks for being here.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What are you seeing right now with prices? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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Pulling comps in a softer market

June 19, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

Choosing the right comps can make all the difference in a softening housing market. I’m having SO many conversations about listings that aren’t moving, so it’s key to back up and get some perspective on comps. Any thoughts?

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

SELLERS NEED TO CATCH UP TO BUYERS

This meme is a good way to describe the real estate market. I think buyers are ahead of sellers in understanding the housing temperature because they spend so much more time scouring listings, waiting for the right home, and making offers. Moreover, buyers have gained power in recent months since the pile of active listings has grown while the number of buyers has shrunk. So, sellers need to catch up to buyers rather than expecting buyers to come to them. It’s time to get in tune with how picky buyers are about price, condition, and location. What are you going to do to stand out and entice a smaller pool of buyers?

FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT COMPS TODAY

1) Comps tell us about the past (not the present):

Comparable sales are like historic artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like. So, if I’m looking at a sale that closed 40 days ago, that property tells me more about the market from 70 days ago when the home got into contract. Are prices still the same today? In a market with some brewing downward price pressure, that’s the question. In short, don’t get stuck on the past, and recognize closed sales represent the past more than anything.

2) Give strong weight to properties getting into contract:

What is the market like right now? Look to properties that are actually getting into contract – the pendings. Forget about listings that are lingering and lofty sales from the past. If prices have softened since the highest comps from the spring, then fixate on what buyers are willing to pay right now (which is seen in the pendings). Of course, we might not know the exact contract price of each pending, but if we’re seeing pendings are only getting into contract when priced lower than recent sales, that’s telling of a softer market. Of course, we might see pendings at the same exact price level too, which is symptomatic of flat prices. By the way, about 34% of pendings in June so far have needed a price drop before getting into contract in the Sacramento region. This also means 66% did not need a reduction. On average, properties reduced by 5.7% before getting into contract. And yes, this is a Jennifer Aniston image I made with AI from X (Twitter).

3) Don’t price to other overpriced listings:

There are so many overpriced listings, so be careful about pricing to those unless your goal is not selling. I find some sellers get concerned about pricing lower because they don’t want to be a lower comp in the neighborhood, but individual sellers don’t have the power to keep the market high or make it go low. Take the pressure off yourself because you don’t control neighborhood values. Remember, one high or low sale doesn’t make or break the market. My advice? Do what you need to do. By the way, 43.5% of active listings have had a price reduction in the Sacramento region.

4) You’re not giving up value if you lower the price:

Some sellers struggle with getting attached to the original price, so they feel like they’re giving up value if they lower the price. Remember though, if it was never worth that amount, you’re not giving away value because you never had that value. Keep in mind, most of the time properties don’t end up at exactly the original list price. For instance, in the Sacramento region last month, only 14% of listings sold at exactly the original price.

5) Take negative price stats seriously:

We’re starting to get some negative year-over-year declines, and my hope is sellers will find strong motivation from that. This is where some listings are going to price lower than recent sales if current pendings are getting into contract at lower levels. All that said, we are NOT in a market with rapid price declines like 2007, so it’s important for buyers to be realistic about their power too. Also, don’t be rigid about declines. For instance, the median price being down by 1% doesn’t mean value is down by that exact amount in every neighborhood and price range. Look to the comps to understand where value is at.

By the way, this is one of my favorite visuals from ResiClub. We’re seeing more locations with year-over-year declines, so the orange part of the graph is growing. We’re starting to see some California cities join the list too (not just TX and FL).

And buyers, here’s a look at local competition over the past two weeks. This visual shows the number of offers in pending contracts by price range from MLS data. About 62% of pendings had one offer while only 4.5% had five or more offers.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What else do you think is important when looking at comps today? And what are you seeing happen with prices when pulling comps? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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It’s a buyer and seller standoff. Who will blink first?

June 11, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

It feels like a standoff right now with buyers and sellers. Who is going to blink first? Sellers aren’t budging on the price, and buyers aren’t willing to pull the trigger on an overpriced home. In today’s post, I have lots of topics including dropping prices, shrinking demand, stats for nine counties, and the vibe of getting one offer. Skim quickly or digest slowly by topic.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento (register here)
6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

MISSING URGENCY IN THE HOUSING MARKET

Buyers lack urgency, and they aren’t desperate to get into contract or overpay. They are extremely patient right now, so they’re going to take their time to find the right house at the right price. And if you thought buyers were already picky, getting some negative price readings is only likely to inflame more patience. On the other side, sellers are in a similar lack-of-urgency boat in that many are holding out for a unicorn price that probably doesn’t make sense for today’s market. The reality is many sellers don’t have a pressing timeline, and some don’t even need to really sell, so they don’t have major motivation to price it right and get the deal done. Yet, negative price readings can be motivating for some sellers ahead as that will feel sobering for some.

BUYER DEMAND HAS BEEN SHRINKING

It was the second-worst month of sales volume in May in recent decades in Sacramento County, our largest local county. Over the past year, we’ve had a trend of slightly more volume as buyers have been thawing out a little, but May was a volume beatdown. Sales have already been lower due to affordability struggles, but they were especially bad last month with an extra layer of economic uncertainty. Keep in mind demand ebbs and flows, so it’s not going to shrink forever. But for the time being, we are at a low point.

All that said, it’s key to remember that not every county and neighborhood is showing the same exact trend. For instance, May 2025 was definitely lower than last year in Placer County, but it still beat 2023 and 2020 – unlike Sacramento.

NO LONG LINES AT OPEN HOUSES LIKE 2021

I did a poll on my Instagram stories a few days ago, and the results line up well with what I’m hearing from agents overall. There are some crowded open houses, but traffic is mediocre in many cases. By the way, I don’t base my entire perception of the market on a poll with 150 votes, but hearing what people are experiencing in the trenches is worth listening to.

WHY IS MY PROPERTY NOT SELLING?

Yesterday, I had five conversations with real estate agents about their listings. I’m grateful when people reach out, and I’m always happy to trade some quick thoughts about the market (text me before calling). Please know that I don’t look up individual comps and tell someone if a listing is overpriced, but I do talk about the market. The reality is we’ve seen a sharper change lately, and many sellers are behind the trend living in the past. Here’s a snippet of a response I gave by Instagram DM.

Do you see how we are no longer at the pre-2020 norm level of competition? We’re also nowhere close to 2007 levels (or 2021). For the past couple of years, we’ve been hovering right around the norm, but May 2025 showed a sharper change beyond the norm.

The spring market peaked early this year (blue line). Moreover, the change is sharper than the norm too, which shows more properties are selling below the original price. In short, I think many sellers have been caught off guard. They don’t realize the spring market already peaked a couple of months ago, and they are out-of-touch with waning buyer demand.

GETTING ONE OFFER IS THE VIBE (OR ZERO)

Over the past weekend, 67% of pending contracts got one offer, and only 4% of units had five or more offers. Sellers, work with buyers. Offer concessions. Get the price right. Don’t expect buyers to bend to you. Meet them where they are at.

A HEFTY UPTICK IN SUPPLY

We saw a hefty increase in the months of supply in recent months. It wasn’t because so many sellers flooded the market. In fact, we actually didn’t have as many sellers hit the market in May (as I talked about last week). The issue is buyers backed off the market, and that helped the pile of active listings grow. Remember, supply can grow in two ways: 1) More sellers list their homes; 2) Fewer buyers participate, which means the pile of active listings grows since not as many homes are getting into contract.

HELLO YEAR-OVER-YEAR DECLINES

We are starting to see some year-over-year price declines in various counties. Not all metrics are down, so maybe the median is down while the average is still up, but there is no mistaking we’ve seen prices flatten to the point where we are starting to experience some negatives depending on the area. Remember, stats can bounce around from month to month, so don’t build your narrative on one month of data or put all your emphasis on the one metric that is up instead of down (or vice versa). I’ll share more counties below.

A SLIGHTLY BETTER MONTH FOR BUILDERS

The month of May was a slightly better month of volume for local builders, so have extra concessions started to work more? Maybe so. Volume is down 23% year-to-date compared to last year, which is a big number, but it’s a slight improvement from prior months. This is something we will monitor closely. Like I keep saying, builders either have to offer fat concessions or lower the price (or both). Keep in mind what builders do can really affect homes that were built in recent years around new subdivisions. I still think the hardest home to sell is the one that more directly competes with the builders because traditional sellers cannot buy down the rate as much as builders or offer such big concessions.

And here’s one of the larger builders over the past two weeks reaching out to agents saying, “I love you. We’re going to pay a commission to the buyer’s agent. Thanks for bringing your buyers to us.” And if you don’t get the meme, this is Stevie Wonder from his “I just called to say I love you” video.

DATA FOR NINE COUNTIES FOR MAY 2025:

I tend to lump smaller counties into sixty-day chunks with the hope of at least getting some sort of a comparison. Some areas are down, and others are up. When there aren’t that many sales, the numbers can bounce around quite a bit.

MONTH TO MONTH:

YEAR-OVER-YEAR:

Thanks for being here.

Questions: Who do you think is going to blink first in today’s market? Buyers or sellers? I’d love to hear your take on things.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

A Back to the Future Housing Market

June 5, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

It’s a Back to the Future housing market right now. You remember the iconic movie, right? Well, sellers are stuck in the past and buyers are living in the future. Let’s talk about it. Skim by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting PCAR
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

STUCK ANYWHERE BUT THE PRESENT

Don’t be Doc or Marty. Try to be present for today’s market. Too many sellers are stuck in the past thinking it’s still 2021, and I find buyers are stuck in the future expecting 2007 vibes. My advice? Be realistic about current market conditions. For sellers, let news of declining price metrics in some areas be motivational to get the price right, offer concessions, and get ahead of your competition. And for buyers, be patient for the right house and realistic about how much power you have.

THE SPRING MARKET PEAKED EARLY THIS YEAR

It’s still slightly early to share stats from May, but preliminary stats show two things: 1) Spring peaked early this year; and 2) It looks like we’re going to have some negative year-over-year price change in Sacramento. Prices are only preliminary, so I’ll report final numbers next week, but this is what we’ve been expecting. Keep in mind that Zillow’s home price index went negative for Sacramento in April (so did Homes.com). I’ll have a ton of stats and perspective next week on how the market showed a big change in the stats in May with so many metrics.

BUYERS ARE NOT LIKING UNCERTAINTY

We saw a real change in buyer demand starting in April (blue line). I don’t care if you’re red or blue, and this is not a partisan statement, but let’s not ignore that increasing economic uncertainty looks to be taking a toll on buyers.

SELLERS STEPPED BACK LAST MONTH TOO

While everyone is focused on weaker buyer demand, let’s talk about sellers too. New listings didn’t grow as much in May as they did in previous months. I’m not saying there is a trend here because we need more than one month of data, but my antennas are up. Is it possible some sellers could pull back in light of uncertainty too? Maybe. Only time will tell. If this does become a thing, it could help the pile of active listings not grow as quickly.

INVENTORY EXPLAINED WITH SKATEBOARD WHEELS

Here’s a reel I pushed out yesterday to explain the real estate market with skateboard wheels. I think this is a cool way to describe why active listings have been able to increase so much. And this goes along perfectly with what I’m saying. Let’s watch buyer AND seller behavior closely right now.

THE DOOM PERSPECTIVE IS FAR INTO THE FUTURE

I’ll admit I get bored with the housing doom perspective because it’s a one-trick pony with a singular sermon of fear. Death and destruction are coming. Yawn. Anyway, right now I find the doom narrative is gloating in victory and way ahead of the trend into the future. Prices are not crashing right now, and it’s not 2007 in the stats. Has the market changed? Yep. Let’s just be real about the numbers and keep things in context. It’s also important to have enough humility to know that nobody can perfectly predict the future.

DON’T BUILD A NARRATIVE ON ONE MONTH OF DATA

Some people might end up looking a bit silly. The truth is you don’t want to get one negative reading and then declare a new era is here. The funny part about stats is sometimes they bounce up and down. I saw one person in a different market talking about declines last month, but then the median price bounced back up this month. My advice? Talk about the numbers, but be careful of embracing a rigid narrative that doesn’t allow space for stats to bounce around (this is especially true of data in smaller counties).

PICKING AND CHOOSING THE HOTTEST STATS

Some people in real estate are cherry-picking stats right now. What I mean is if the median sales price is down, but the average sales price is up, then it’s all about gravitating toward whatever stat is up. My advice? Tell the story of the market without sugarcoating, and be careful about embracing a rosy seller-oriented narrative in a market where buyers are gaining power. Do you know what buyers and sellers need to understand? That prices have flattened and we have some budding downward price pressure.

COMPETITION ISN’T AT ZERO

There’s a disconnect right now with the housing narrative online and the actual market. In recent months, I’ve had some buyers even express frustration to me when talking about a flattening market with changing demand. “Bro, it’s really competitive when I’m trying to buy a house.” I pushed out some stats a few days ago to help talk about this. Here’s what the number of offers looks like by price point for May closed sales. Do you see how there is more competition at lower prices? Keep in mind this only represents sales. There are many listings with zero offers. Also, there is strong competition for properties that check all the boxes for price, condition, upgrades, and location. There is NOT strong competition for overpriced homes.

BE A PART OF THE MARKET THAT IS HERE

For my real estate friends, it’s all about connecting with people who have incentive to participate in the market. We’ve had $7.5 billion in price volume this year to date with nearly 12,000 closed sales in the wider region. Who is buying? Who is selling? Who is investing? Find those people.

CLOSING ADVICE FOR REAL ESTATE FRIENDS

Stay grounded. Be careful of sensationalism. Cultivate objectivity. Don’t treat high prices as sacred because they are not. Be in touch with buyers who want lower prices. Keep changing what you say about the market as the stats change. Expect more hesitancy from buyers and maybe even sellers as we start talking more about negative price stats. Try to get sellers ahead of their competition right now since there has been a sharper downward change in buyer demand. Run toward the challenge of the market, and keep finding ways to increase the size of your network. Stop doomscrolling. Find ways to unplug. Take care of your mental health (nobody else can do that for you).

Thanks for being here.

Questions: Are you seeing the Back to the Future dynamic? What stands out to you about today’s market? I’d love to hear your take on things.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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