Sacramento Appraisal Blog

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Shrinking housing supply & stop obsessing over rates

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The big news lately is housing supply has been shrinking. Some of this is due to more buyers in the game right now, but we’re also seeing sellers step back from listing homes. Some new visuals today as well as thoughts on wasting energy on obsessing over lower rates.

This post is designed to skim quickly by topic or digest slowly. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/24/26 Windermere Sierra Oaks Q&A
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom 
7/14/26 Elk Grove Presentation TBD
7/15/26 Stockton Presentation TBD
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
9/1/26 TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

THE LOWEST & HIGHEST PRICES IN 2026

Where are buyers purchasing? Here are the top areas in 2026 so far at the lowest and highest prices in the Sacramento region. Let me know if you like these visuals. I thought it would be cool to show things this way. 

SELLERS HAVE BEEN SHRINKING BACK LATELY

This is big news. It looks like increased uncertainty this year is starting to affect seller behavior. Think Iran War and inflation. What I mean is sellers have started to not list homes as much in 2026. This was a problem last year where sellers really stepped back during the second half of 2025. Yet, sellers started coming back to the market, and that’s why we saw five months in a row of finally being back above 2024 levels of new listings. But then May 2026 sunk back below 2024 levels again (doh!!!). This isn’t a drastic change, but I think it’s been enough to make the housing market feel a little tighter since there isn’t as much supply out there. Frankly, this is a step in the wrong direction for affordability. If we want the housing market to heal, we need more listings. 

Here’s a different way to look at it. The low point of seller activity was 2023, and we’ve improved since then, but sellers backed off in mid-2025, and both April and May 2026 have been lackluster. The longer these lines remain subdued, the longer the housing market feels stuck. 

GIVING UP LOW RATES

It feels like sellers will never give up a low rate, and some won’t, but we’re starting to see more owners list their homes despite a low rate. About 15% of all current local listings have sold previously on MLS between 2020 and 2025, and there are definitely some low rates mixed in there. 

NOT AS MANY OPTIONS FOR BUYERS

Sellers aren’t flooding the market. That’s often the narrative online, but here we are with sellers actually pulling back a little. The number of active listings is down 6% from year ago, so there aren’t technically as many options for buyers. Yet, part of this number being lower is about more buyers getting into contract (more on that below). 

HIGHER BUYER DEMAND DESPITE RATE HIKES

Some good news here. Mortgage rates went from 6% in January to above 6.5% lately, but it hasn’t really phased buyers. I’m not saying this uptick is not meaningful, but we’ve had more pending contracts in recent months despite rates rising. This is why we’ve had slightly higher closed sales volume so far. It’s only slightly more volume, but that’s on brand for 2026. The goal is to see the housing market a little less stuck. 

WASTING TIME & ENERGY ON RATES

Think about all the attention spent on rates increasing since January and how that could squash buyer demand. Yet, here we are with a little more buyer volume nationally and locally despite the uptick. I’m not saying rates don’t matter because they do, but if you work in real estate, maybe focus your attention on building relationships with people rather than obsessing over daily rate changes. Backing up, the message over the past four years has been that rates would be coming down soon. Trust me bro. But here we are with rates that are still pretty similar to what they were four years ago. At some point, I guess we need to recognize all this worry and attention spent on rates hasn’t made much of a difference. There is a lesson in there.

One more thing. It’s really difficult to accurately predict mortgage rates. Almost nobody gets it right. This doesn’t mean I don’t want to hear what people think. Loan officer friends in particular, I want to hear your take, so please keep sharing. Let’s just concede that predicting rates isn’t so easy since there are so many moving parts. And let’s be real that some real estate professionals get sucked into a narrative that fixates on rates, and that can be limiting. 

A LITTLE MORE DISTRESS IS THE VIBE

In most local counties, I’m seeing a slight bump in short sales. Here’s something from a presentation last week in Solano County. Ultimately, we don’t have a distressed housing market, but we are seeing a little more distress. And we should expect to see more distress ahead since we’ve bottomed out after the pandemic and we’re seeing an increase in mortgage delinquencies. A big issue here is prices have been pretty flat for years, so if someone bought 4-5 years ago, it’s possible there hasn’t been much growth (or maybe it’s worth less). This is where low-down FHA and VA borrowers are more prone to have to do a short sale. 

NOTE: I find people either minimize the growth since it’s nothing compared to what it used to be like, or they get sensational and say short sales increased 900% since 2024 (don’t do that). My advice? Let’s just recognize a little growth and keep things in context. 

“I’M NOT SEEING THE EXTRA VOLUME AT ALL”

I had a great conversation recently from someone who said she just wasn’t seeing all this extra volume I’ve been talking about, and others have felt the same too. Well, I’ve only ever mentioned that we have a little extra, so let’s be clear about that. To date, volume has been 2% better this year. Here’s a good way to think about it. If someone gained or lost 2% of their weight, would you notice? Probably not. It’s similar with the housing market. Yet, just because you don’t notice doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened. This is where we want to be careful to see the forest through the trees. Sometimes our subjective experience gets in the way of seeing the trend. 

WHERE IS THE EXTRA VOLUME?

We’ve seen about 2% more closed sales volume this year in the four-county region, and Sacramento County has been the culprit for the most change so far. Moreover, it’s extra buyers between $400K to $500K as the largest category of growth. It’s honestly too early to pull closed stats for May, and the numbers will look a little better next week when I finalize the stats.

More at the bottom. And a little more at the top. Preliminary stats for May.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here. 

Question: What are you hearing from buyers and sellers right now? Have you felt the market tighten in recent months? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Unsolicited advice about making it in real estate in 2026

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Real estate is easy money. It looks simple and glamorous on Selling Sunset, but this is a very tough business. And the past four years have been a huge grind ever since rates spiked and buyers disappeared from the market. Well, today I’m taking a break from stats. I have some encouragement about making it in today’s housing market. Let me know what you think.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/24/26 Windermere Sierra Oaks Q&A
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom 
7/14/26 Elk Grove Presentation TBD
7/15/26 Stockton Presentation TBD
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
9/1/26 TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

UNSOLICITED ADVICE ABOUT MAKING IT IN 2026

Here are some things on my mind. This is the type of stuff I think about constantly. I’m all about sharing the straight dope with the stats, but there is also hope and optimism to embrace. 

1) HONE YOUR MINDSET: The only thing you can control is your mindset, and having the right mindset is not going to happen by accident. It’s something that has to be cultivated. The truth is this market will either force you out or it’ll forge you into the person you need to be. What type of mindset is going to help you win today? And how can you cultivate that? Who are the voices you need to listen to? And who do you need to stop listening to?

2) PLAN FOR A VIBRANT LIFE. NOT A VIBRANT MARKET: We’re going to have lower sales volume for years ahead until there is a sharper change with affordability. Bottom line. This means we need to figure out how to have an awesome life instead of waiting for the market to get better before life gets good. Embrace today. Don’t be like Uncle Rico who was stuck in 1982. 

3) INCREASE THE SIZE OF YOUR NETWORK: The most important thing in real estate is relationships with people, and building a bigger network is essential for making it in today’s market. Don’t just wait for the phone to ring. How can you increase the size of your network? What is your plan? Who do you need to get to know? Who do you need to get in front of? What meetings do you need to start attending (or stop attending)? Who are the gatekeepers to the types of work you want to do? And don’t copy others either. Be yourself and figure out what works for you. 

4) STOP OBSESSING OVER PRICES: Markets go up and they go down, but many real estate professionals interpret the trend as good when prices are rising and bad when they aren’t. I get it, but the visual below just seems off. Can you imagine having a negative mindset for close to half of your real estate career if you embrace this way of thinking? Does it have to be like this? Instead of looking at prices, consider focusing on people who have incentive to participate regardless of what prices are doing. It’s not that prices don’t matter because they do. All I’m saying is if you catch yourself believing the market is good or bad based on prices, there is room to challenge that belief. Maybe it’s not actually about prices, but rather people finding opportunities in the market.

By the way, Nick Brooks (Realtor) once told me, “The good markets don’t last, and neither do the bad ones.” Killer statement. 

5) STOP PUTTING YOUR HOPE IN LOWER RATES: There has been so much hope in rates coming down, but it’s been four years since rates spiked, and they just haven’t changed that much. At some point, I guess we should be realistic. It’s sort of like hearing that a certain sports team is going to have a better year next year, but then they don’t (too real with the Sacramento Kings lately). My advice? Know what’s happening with rates, but put your energy and attention into connecting with people who have incentive to participate in today’s market. Besides, rates would have to come down significantly to make a bigger impact, so it just doesn’t make sense to obsess over them. 

6) HAVE MORE FUN IN LIFE: If all we do is focus on work, we end up very empty. So, what are you doing right now for fun? What is adding joy to your life? If there isn’t much, it’s time to start leaning into stuff that makes you feel alive. Look, I don’t have life down, and in so many ways I’m learning to focus on the basics again instead of just work. Here is the Venn diagram of my personal focus this year though. If you made something like this, what would it look like? 

7) SPEAK TO BUYERS: The real estate narrative tends to heavily favor sellers, equity, and higher prices, but don’t forget to talk about buyers and opportunities that exist for them. Seriously, there is a pervasive seller-oriented bias in real estate, and I think it’s something to overcome. My advice? Get more intentional about speaking to buyers and be a dispenser of advice for both sellers AND buyers. 

8) IDENTIFY OPPORTUNITIES: Identify opportunities by knowing which parts of the market are growing and shrinking. So, if 20% of the market is investors, what does that mean for your business? If we’re seeing the most growth in volume at lower prices, what action steps can you take? If we’re starting to see more short sales, what does that mean for your marketing? If Gen X and Millennials are inheriting homes from aging Boomers, what do you do with that information? If population is growing or shrinking in some areas, how does that influence your focus? If HOA fees keep rising or rents have dipped, who is going to want to sell? 

9) RUN TOWARD THE MARKET: The real estate business looks easy from a distance, but in the real world it’s a tough gig. My strong advice is to run toward the challenge of this market instead of getting stuck in discouragement. I find when we stop moving forward, it’s easy to start sinking. I don’t have an easy plan for how to do this, but there is something very powerful about having a mindset that faces the challenge rather than shrinks away. This is likely the one thing that distinguishes success in today’s market. 

10) BE FLUENT IN TRENDS: Okay, I have to end on this note because I’m a stats guy. Watch the housing market closely and be fluent in the trends so you can speak definitively about what is happening rather than resting on cliches or imposing a narrative that doesn’t actually fit the local trend. People can smell expertise when you’re talking about specific parts of the market, and I encourage all real estate professionals to put yourself out there. On that note, be a sniper rather than a shotgun with the stats. Don’t bombard people with a dissertation, but instead get focused in your message with small bits of information. I realize this is ironic since my blog posts are long, but the goal is for others to take a nugget here and there from what I do and then share that.  

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here. 

Question: What’s the best advice you would give for making it as a real estate professional in today’s market? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Growing population & slowing price change

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I have some really interesting stuff to share today, and I hope you dig it. Let’s talk about some glowing population stats and price growth that has seemed to flatten lately (sort of). The stats are also going to get awkward as we start comparing today with a really dull market last year.

NOTE: This post is designed to skim by topic or digest slowly

An image with '70s type colors (yellow, red, and orange), and the title of today's blog post. growing california population and slowing price change - sacramento appraisal blog

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/15/26 Nevada County 
5/21/26 Jenn Davis-Radcliffe Event (private)
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

IT’S NOT ALL BAD NEWS FOR CALIFORNIA POPULATION

There is so much attention on people leaving California, but most counties in the wider Sacramento region have been growing according to new stats from the California Department of Finance. I shared this on my socials, and it went viral on IG. People like to hear about population change, though it also brings out conversations about traffic and how hard it is to see things not stay the same, so this isn’t all bliss. 

HOUSING STATS ARE BORING RIGHT NOW

Check out how similar April 2026 is to April 2025. Mostly all the metrics are the same, which makes these stats honestly a little boring (not sensational). Yet, this is poised to change over the next few months as we start comparing 2026 with a really dull 2025. This assumes 2026 doesn’t have a sharp inflection point like we saw last year. 

Here’s what it looks like as a meme…

PRICE CHANGE IS SLOWER RATHER THAN INTENSE

Some price stats look like they’ve been starting to flatten a little or at least not intensify. This doesn’t mean price declines have stopped or bigger change isn’t possible in the future. It just means change has been slower lately, and we should talk about it to try to make sense of things. 

Both the median and Zillow show exactly what I’m saying as year-over-year price change has slowed. Yet, the Freddie Mac Price Index grew in March, so I’m not ready to say we’ve entered a full-on flattening season. I’m simply recognizing some stats have slowed. Ultimately, we need a few months to see how things play out. 

One more thing. Uncertainty today has not been an intense as one year ago, but there is still lingering uncertainty about the war, gas prices, and higher inflation. To date, these factors haven’t caused a big inflection point like we saw last year, but it’s something to continue to watch. 

CONDO PRICES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP

Condos are NOT showing the same tame price change as detached units. This is a good reminder that the single-family detached trend can be different from the condo trend.

COMPARISONS ARE GOING TO GET WEIRD

We’re going to start comparing today with a dull market in 2025, and it means we need to be thoughtful about interpreting what the stats mean. Locally, here are some things to watch:

  • Days on market is poised to be lower than one year ago in coming months (check out the green line compared to blue)
  • The % of homes selling above will be higher than last year
  • The % of homes selling below will be lower than last year
  • We should get more new listings this year than last year unless sellers start to back off more. I’m hoping a slightly weaker showing of new listings in April 2026 isn’t going to turn into a trend. 
  • Its possible buyer volume can be better in coming months as it has through April, but there are so many factors that can affect this.
  • Price stats seem poised to be closer to last year, but we’ll see.
  • It’s possible we’ll see a higher number of offers on properties today since competition shrank last year.

All of this will take a few months to start showing up more in the stats for closed sales, and then we’ll see what ends up happening for the rest of the year. 

The black lines (2026) will be much closer to the red lines (pre-2020 norm) in coming months. I think it’s possible the next few months will be slightly softer than the norm, but only time will tell. 

VOLUME IS HIGHER THAN ONE YEAR AGO

We probably don’t want to write home over 2% more closed sales, but it’s still something to note. This is exactly what we want to see in 2026. A little bit more volume. 

IGNORE THE MEDIAN PRICE IN SMALLER AREAS

Here are some images to show how erratic the median sales price can be in smaller counties. My advice? Don’t build your narrative on the median from month to month. You’re going to sound insane if you do. It’s reasonable to look at larger counties for the trend rather than getting too focused on smaller areas that bounce around so much more.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR RECAP IMAGES

Enjoy recap stats for twelve counties. I’m considering making month-to-month visuals again, but I’m still in test-drive mode for these ones. Please take smaller counties with a grain of salt. Stats can bounce around all over the place, so don’t be rigid about the change from month to month. 

Anyway, I hope that was interesting. Thanks for being here. 

Questions: How would you describe the market right now? What are you seeing happen with prices? Or you seeing the trend flatten or grow? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

More distressed sales coming to the 2026 housing market

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Distressed sales are back. It’s 2007 again. The market is about to implode. We’re all going to die. That’s what it sounds like online, but do the stats line up with those headlines? Well, there are actually more foreclosures happening today, so we need to talk about this, but the growth has been modest compared to the narrative. Today, let’s talk about what’s happening both nationally and locally with market distress, and consider the future. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

THIS VIRAL STORY IS CREATING CONVERSATION

The Wall Street Journal pushed out a story this week, and social media is ablaze talking about distressed sales. I think one of the big takeaways is we’re at a six-year high for foreclosures now. That sounds scary, but it also means we’re higher than we’ve been since 2020, which isn’t too crazy since levels have been so low in recent years. However, let’s not ignore an increase, so let’s talk about it. By the way, there are many housing doom prophets claiming victory.

WE’RE NO LONGER AT THE BOTTOM

This visual came from the Wall Street Journal piece, and I think it shows the trend perfectly. Foreclosures are starting to rise, we’re not back to pre-pandemic levels yet, and it’s nothing like the Great Financial Crisis. Ultimately, we’re still really low, but we’re also starting to rise. Both things are true. I find the doomer narrative only focuses on 2020 to 2026, while the rosy narrative ignores any growth lately. 

Here’s a HousingWire chart showing foreclosures and bankruptcies. Do you see the difference in rate of growth during the GFC and today? This is a reasonable reminder to not expect 2007 results with 2026 stats.

A GOOD WAY TO DESCRIBE THE TREND

We don’t have a distressed market, but we do have more distress. I think that’s the perfect way to describe the trend right now. Thoughts? 

IT’S NOT THE SAME AS 2007

There has been some growth in distress, but the stats also aren’t the same as 2007. These ResiClub charts show delinquencies and foreclosures by state. It’s interesting to see how not every part of the country is exactly the same either (not a shocker). Some areas really didn’t have much carnage back in the day either. I think what would be especially helpful is a chart that shows a baseline for what “normal” looks like in each area so we can better interpret today’s numbers. In California, we’re at 2% now compared to 6.1% in 2007. This sounds close, but think about how bad it was in 2007, and that reminds us there is a big difference between these numbers.  

MORE SHORT SALES LOCALLY

Locally, short sales have increased, but it’s been modest. We’re not quite back to 2019 levels, but there really isn’t any place to go but up, so we should see more ahead. Just remember more doesn’t flippantly mean 2008 all over again. Back then we had about 10,000 more active listings, which helped create very quick price change. For reference, there are currently 38 short sale listings in the region and 34 short sale pendings. I have to think there are other properties not formally categorized as a short sale too.

BRO, THERE ARE 1,000% MORE SHORT SALES

It’s easy to get sensational with stats. We could say short sales increased by 22% from one year ago, and it’s true, but there were also only six more short sales. Or we could say there are 1,000% more short sales compared to 2022, but that’s only thirty extra short sales. My advice? Be careful about sensationalism. A common tactic to sound alarming is to share a percentage change when dealing with very few numbers. 

MORE SHORT SALES AT FIRST-TIME BUYER PRICES

First-time buyer price points are the primary place where short sales have been occurring. What I mean is 26 out of 33 short sales were under $550K (and 21 out of 33 were under $500K). Citrus Heights has been a standout for more, but I wouldn’t call it an epicenter either since there just aren’t that many short sales happening overall. Mostly, short sales are sporadic rather than concentrated in just one area.

DISTRESSED SALES ARE 1.3% OF THE LOCAL MARKET

In the beginning of 2009, 84% of all sales were distressed in our largest local county, and lately, it’s been closer to 1.3%. 

When zooming in, we can see a bit more activity lately, so we’re no longer at the bottom. It’s been a slow burn to see distressed sales hit the market though, and there just hasn’t been an REO tidal wave. Part of me wonders how much we would really see anyway in a climate where institutional investors could buy privately before distressed supply hits the MLS. 

FLAT / LOWER PRICES CAN CAUSE MORE SHORT SALES

For many owners, there might not be much equity from a purchase in the past five years since prices have been pretty flat or down a little, and there are definitely people figuring this out as they want to sell. This market dynamic has essentially helped push some homes into a negative equity status. Buyers who purchased with a small downpayment in recent years are more prone to these situations (think FHA and VA). Nationally, we’re seeing the most delinquent loans as FHA and VA too. 

YES, SELLERS DO LIST AFTER JUST A FEW YEARS

Who are the sellers today? When did sellers purchase previously? I have some research I’m hoping to push out soon if I can (this takes so much time to pull). Here’s a look at Placer County where 15.7% of all current listings were last purchased on MLS over the past six years. I suspect many listings have equity here, but there are definitely situations where some sellers don’t. This only covers home that sold previously on MLS, so there are also some newly constructed homes that aren’t accounted for here because they initially sold privately from the builder. In short, I would look at 15.7% of listings as solid but conservative. I’ve heard some people say recently that over 30% of current listings were purchased over the past few years, but that doesn’t sound real at all. 

AGENTS, PLEASE INPUT DATA CORRECTLY INTO MLS

Friends, please input properties correctly into MLS if they are short sales or bank-owned properties. Accurate data helps everyone, and when stats aren’t accurate, it can lead to an off-base narrative.

BUYERS, DON’T GET YOUR HOPES UP

Be realistic that there are VERY FEW distressed listings right now, so if your plan is to target a foreclosure or short sale, that’s a tiny pond for fishing. 

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Overall, it’s NOT a distressed market, but we are seeing some slight growth with distressed supply, and I anticipate more ahead, so we want to continue to watch this. If you’re a consumer who is struggling today, you’re not alone. I know it’s tough to buy something and then watch the market change. I’ve been there before personally. If you work in real estate, expect to see more distress in the market because that’s the trend, but stay grounded in what the stats show. It’s been a slow burn to get more distressed inventory, so don’t expect quick change ahead unless something unexpected occurs. If you’ve never done a short sale too, maybe it’s time to take a class. Moreover, if prices soften more, we should see more short sales ahead. On that note, be sure to major in empathy because some consumers are going to need your understanding and then your expertise. Lastly, for those who peddle fear and conflate 2026 and 2007, why not show actual stats so consumers can form thoughts and make decisions? It gets old when people come to the table with a doom (or rosy) narrative. Yawn. 

Anyway, I hope that was interesting. Thanks for being here. 

Questions: Are you seeing any distress hit the market? In what ways? What did I miss? Anything to add? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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