Goodbye California. Many households have said that in recent years, and in a housing market that feels frozen with so many sellers sitting, one of the groups that still has incentive to sell happens to be residents leaving the state. Today, let’s talk about fresh migration stats. Any thoughts?
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
11/7/2024 Think Like an Appraiser (3 hours) Register here
11/19/24 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A 9am
11/20/24 Delia Real Estate Group (private I think)
12/5/24 Made 4 More Team (Exporting Data from MLS)
12/11/24 Gateway: Think Like an Appraiser (private)
1/15/25 Mike & Joel Event (details TBA)
1/24/25 PCAR Market Update (details TBA)
2/6/25 She Invests event (TBA)
2/11/25 MLS Meeting TBA
4/8/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
WHY ARE PEOPLE MOVING?
There isn’t just one reason why people are leaving California, but some of the usual suspects include retirement, climate change, looking for a different lifestyle, economics, politics, job change, cashing out, etc… I’m sure there are other reasons too. What are you seeing the most?
FRESH STATS:
All visuals are based on the American Community Survey / Census Bureau. These stats are based on 2023, which is considered fresh for migration data. For my real estate friends, please feel free to use my visuals however you see fit (just don’t cut and paste my entire post verbatim). Thanks.
WHERE ARE CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS MOVING?
Is everyone moving? Nope. But the latest stats show 690,127 people left the state in 2023. Here’s a look at the top destinations where California residents relocated. By far, Texas was the number one destination (like almost every year). This visual only includes a handful of states, but see an exhaustive list below. Is this what you’re seeing with friends or in your business?
MIGRATION HAS SOFTENED SINCE 2021
Duh, we don’t need stats to show us migration has slowed because the stories we’re hearing and conversations we’re having confirm that already. Look, I definitely still regularly hear about outbound migration, but it’s nothing like stories galore from 2021. And while we’re on the subject, I’m not hearing anyone in real estate say things like, “Bro, all the buyers are from the Bay Area,” which also speaks to migration change. Anyway, here’s a comparison of top migration destinations for Californians in 2023 compared to 2021. It’s not a shocker to see the trend decrease, but there are a few states such as Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia that showed more outbound migration in 2023 (impressive). There could be other states with more movement too, and I can dig into that if there is demand (let me know).
REMOTE WORK IS CHANGING
Another consideration for why migration hasn’t been as robust lately is due to remote work starting to pull back from the peak in 2021. Image from ResiClub / Lance Lambert.
YES, MOVING TO CALIFORNIA HAPPENS
People do actually move to California. In fact, the latest stats show 422,075 people moved to the state in 2023. The narrative is that everyone is leaving and nobody loves California anymore, but that’s just not true. Of course, the joke is it’s former California residents moving back. Haha. By the way, Texas almost always comes in first place for exporting residents to California.
A COOL MIGRATION TOOL
Here’s a pretty cool migration resource from the San Francisco Chronicle to see where residents in specific California counties moved. You can track inbound and outbound migration from counties (and even out of state). Keep in mind this tool is based on IRS data instead of the Census Bureau like my post today. And thanks Joe Lynch for the head-up (heard it from you first).
QUESTIONS FOR REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS
Many prospective sellers are stuck and unable to move since the math doesn’t work right now, but many of those moving out of state have incentive to list right now despite higher rates. My advice? Find those people.
– Who are your clients going to be over the next two years?
– Who is coming to the market?
– Who is leaving the market?
– What steps do you need to take to position yourself for the future?
– Where can you meet future clients?
WHERE ARE CALIFORNIANS MOVING THE LEAST?
Here’s a top list of areas where California residents are moving the very least. Does anything surprise you? And what works better? Horizontal or vertical bars?
COMING TO CALIFORNIA THE LEAST
And a top list of who is moving to California the least. North Dakota, where is the love? Haha.
BRO, I WANT TO SEE AN EXHAUSTIVE LIST
Okay, here are two more visuals to show migration data for every state instead of just top destinations above. These are probably too large for social media, but I’m anticipating questions about other states, so I’m trying to be thorough and avoid hate mail.
I hope this was helpful.
Questions: Does anything surprise you about the stats above? Why are people leaving and coming? Did I miss anything?
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