Half the homes in the country lost value since last year. This is a big headline from Zillow, and I want to unpack that today before the holiday officially comes. I think it’s important in real estate to understand what people are saying about the market.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/13/26 Residential RoundUp via Zoom (register here)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
1/20/26 Carlile Group (private event)
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)
2/20/26 PCAR
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR
HOUSING CONVERSATION AT THE DINNER TABLE
I don’t recommend it, but if conversation isn’t spicy enough on Thursday while you’re with your people, here are some housing topics to bring up. Which one would rile up grandpa the most? Haha.
In all seriousness, I hope you deepen relationships this week. May you be filled with deep joy regardless of your circumstances.
ZILLOW’S SENSATIONAL HEADLINE
Zillow published a piece last week stating 53% of homes in the United States lost value over the past year, and it’s gone viral online. What really caught my eye was the locations with the most losses. Check out Sacramento ranking third on the list with 88% of homes said to have lost value – only behind Denver and Austin. I’m not surprised to see Sacramento make the cut since I’ve been talking about softer prices for many months now. But it’s also easy to get sensational with this headline because it sounds worse than actual market change.
If you’re in one of these top markets, what do you think of these stats?
ACTUAL VALUE DECLINES AREN’T SENSATIONAL
In short, 88% of homes losing value sounds really big, but how much did prices actually go down? Well, Zillow’s price index for Sacramento is down 2.3% from one year ago, and traditional metrics are hovering somewhere around that level depending on the month (they’re bouncing around). I like to say it’s been a slow burn for price change despite glaring affordability issues. Supply just hasn’t built enough to create quick change. I’m not sugarcoating here. I’m only pointing out the 88% headline sounds way more sensational than actual market change. All that said, a positive here is affordability has improved slightly for buyers. This isn’t a major change, but a little relief is welcome.
By the way, I’m not saying Zillow’s numbers are perfect for Sacramento either, though their numbers have been pretty reasonable so far compared to other metrics I’m watching. I’ll keep reporting on many different metrics to help us have a wide view of the trend. I’m also not a Zestimate fanboy, but it’s interesting to consider what percentage of Zestimates have dropped below last year as shown above.
A BIG THANK YOU
Thank you so much for this year. I am beyond grateful for the relationship we’ve built and the business we’ve done together. Thank you for your continual support. I know this has been a tough time in real estate for so many over the past few years, so I don’t take it for granted that I’m surrounded by amazing people who have blessed my life and business.
Thanks for being here. I hope this was helpful.
LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.
Questions: Which housing topic are you bringing up at Thanksgiving? And does anyone else feel like turkey is overrated?
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Happy Thanksgiving Ryan. That article from Zillow came out a couple of hours before I had a presentation to a local office, so I was able to reference it in my talk. I’m somewhat dubious about the analysis, but Zillow doesn’t look at the market the same way I do. The story implies that a majority of the appraisals I completed this year showed declining prices, which is not the case.
Let me add to your Thanksgiving dinner topics list: If I spend $300,000 on a new ADU for Grandpa to live with us, will my house value go up the same?
That’s great, Joe. So glad you could talk about that. Yeah, I’m not all in on the methodology here. I do think it’s interesting when we look at trendlines in our own graphs as well as sources like Zillow, Redfin, Homes dot com, etc…
And oh, that’s a fantastic question. $300K is a big price tag. 🙂
I presume this was based on the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which has been said to be very similar to Case-Shiller, but without the lag. Your data is more precise, because of the way you gather it.
(OTOH, Zestimates are often wildly inaccurate, particularly for California properties, because they are somewhat weighted by tax assessed values, then zoom up when a house is on the market, or a neighboring house sells. I moved this year and fully expect the current sales price-based Zestimate to drop significantly next year, when the tax assessed value gets into Zillow. That will only be due to my being able to lower the assessed value by 32% due to Prop 19.)
Happy Thanksgiving!
Thanks so much, Monica. Yeah, Zestimates are a joke since they basically chase the list price when a property is listed for sale. Yet, I think it’s an example of mass data at our fingertips that is worth talking about. We still have to weight the credibility though and see if there is any other data source to consider also. Congrats on the move!!! I hope it was a good one for you. Happy Thanksgiving!!!
I’m not a Zestimate fanboy either, but they sure beat the idiocy of Redfin estimates (I hope folk aren’t falling for their nonsense). We just have to remember these are speculative (but reasoned) averages that can’t be applied at the neighborhood level.
Thanks KC. Yeah, it’s very much hit and miss. You know what I’m liking in terms of a format is homes dot com? I really like how they pull in different data sources. Whether they are accurate or not is another thing, but I like the way they at least try to justify the value.
Agreed. I just got an estimate from Redfin on my former house for 953K which I sold in March for 1.270M. No changes in the property. Zillow marks it down only 2% from what I sold it for in line with what your figures show. That’s predatory pricing in an otherwise stable neighborhood, hands down.
Topic: “How would you appraise Epstein’s island?” Is stigma external obsolescence? Do you need three internationally known pedo properties featured in Netflix documentaries as comparable sales? Are the tunnels finished or unfinished below grade area per ANSI? Could the property be transitioned to have a new highest and best use with revenue going to victims?
Oh shoot. Haha. Thanks Gary. I actually don’t know where his island is located. Three comps within a radius though I’m sure. 🙂
Anybody starts talking about home prices at Thanksgiving will be sent to the kids table. Lets take a day off from that and talk about important stuff, like; are dogs cooler than cats?
I’m with you, Mark. We have a tiny gathering for Thanksgiving. No immediate family nearby, so it’s just my household. Housing talk will only happen if I bring it up, and that’s unlikely. I do have a PowerPoint ready just in case though…
Thank you for laugh out loud moment on the possible topics for the Thanksgiving Table. Next meme should have been an all out food fight. I am definitely seeing shifts in value with homes in less than ideal condition or with some impactful something like backing to busy road or general highway noise.
Haha. Thanks, Debbie. And please keep that feedback coming about what you’re seeing. I always appreciate your take. Seems like adverse locations and issues are standing out like a sore thumb.