The top locations where buyers are moving?

Last week I was giving a presentation, and I could tell people were getting excited when I mentioned the #1 location where buyers are moving in the United States. Cell phones were starting to come out to snap a pic of my slide, but I said, “Wait, don’t take a pic yet.” The truth is there can be a big difference between headlines and reality in real estate, and today I want to talk about a big headline that involves many cities around the country.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin

ARE THESE THE TOP 10 AREAS BUYERS ARE MOVING?

Redfin recently published some stats on their socials to talk about locations buyers are moving into, and people love stuff like this. But there’s a big problem. While I’m a fan of migration data (and Redfin stats), these are NOT actual buyers, but rather search queries where people looked up homes on Redfin’s website. What this means is Sacramento came up first on the list for people outside of Sacramento looking up the local market. 

Here’s the consumer takeaway. Bro, Sacramento is the hottest market in the country. But hold that thought. Let’s look at actual stats below. 

Also, here’s a top ten list where “buyers” are said to be leaving. I saw someone online with a political takeaway about red and blue cities based on these stats. Ha.

THE FINE PRINT SHOWS THESE AREN’T BUYERS

The methodology from Redfin is clear that these are “potential migrants,” but the language on their visuals shows “buyers.” Look, I like some of what Redfin puts out there, but this is disingenuous. There is no other way to say it. The problem here is people walk away forming ideas about the housing market, but search queries may not reflect what’s actually happening. I’m all for talking about these stats though. Let’s just get the labels right by calling these search queries instead of buyers. Know what I’m saying? 

THE BIG DISCONNECT WITH THESE STATS

Sacramento has been making Redfin’s top list of buyer destinations for the past few years, and yet we’ve had some of the lowest sales volume ever. So, there is a real disconnect between people searching online and actual purchases happening. Could some of the Redfin users have purchased in Sacramento? Or could some be future buyers? Of course. But it’s ironic for Sacramento to be at the top of a hot list when our volume is flirting with some of the lowest we’ve ever had. 

WHY ARE YOU MAKING A BIG DEAL OUT OF THIS? 

People form narratives based on headlines, and most people don’t read the fine print in situations like this. If you don’t believe me, check out Redfin’s IG post where they share this data, and ask yourself if people think these are buyers or search queries. In short, I care about accuracy, and let’s just be real about the market that exists. Besides, the last thing sellers need to see right now is that “Sacramento is the hottest market in the country.” I know, some might ask, “C’mon, Ryan, can’t we just have this small bit of optimism?” Hey, I’m not trying to crush anyone’s outlook. Please believe whatever you want. If you want to take encouragement that people are looking up “Sacramento” while in other locations, I think that’s cool. Let’s just keep it real and avoid false narratives. However, if your optimism is based on buyer stats that aren’t real, is that helpful? Asking for a friend. 

SUPPLEMENTARY STATS ARE COOL, BUT BE CAREFUL

The cool part about Redfin’s stats is we’ve never had stuff like before prior to the internet, so it’s fascinating to think about tracking search queries and wondering if there is a connection to the actual market. I mean, maybe there is, but it might take years for queries to pan out – especially in today’s market where the math is tough. No matter what, we have to be careful with anecdotal or supplementary stuff like this because the trend might not line up with actual stats. 

This reminds me of something else. There was a recent viral narrative about Google searches for “Can’t sell my house” being at an all-time high. Okay, that’s interesting, but what does it mean? And are there other housing stats we can look at to understand the market? Or do we just walk away with the narrative that it must be the worst market ever if these searches are at an all-time high? Or I think of people highlighting Zillow maps with the number of listings or notice of defaults. That’s super interesting data, but we don’t really know if the number being shown is normal or not. In other words, there’s no context for interpretation.  

All I’m saying is we have to compare ideas with actual stats at some point. 

NEW MIGRATION STATS FROM CALIFORNIA POLICY LAB

The California Policy Lab introduced some new migration stats this week for the state, and I made a visual with their data. The cool part is their stats track credit information, not just stats from the Census Bureau as I’ve shared before. Anyway, here’s a look at exits and entrances to the state over the past ten years. 

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here. 

Questions: What stands out to you most above? Do you think there is a connection between search queries and buyers? 

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