Is it just me, or do ten-year real estate graphs look a bit like Christmas trees lately? I’m not trying to gloss over the pain of the real estate “bubble burst” in the Sacramento area (especially since I bought in 2004), but it’s interesting to see how current values have been circling around to give a “tree” view in many neighborhoods lately. Most lower-end and middle-range areas tend to have this “tree-like” or “mountain-ish” look. Yet at the same time, more established areas like Curtis Park and River Park still have higher property values, so graphs look a bit different in those cases. Let me take you on a brief tour below.

The “Via Casitas” townhomes in Carmichael are a perfect example of the “tree” phenomenon as you can see above.

When looking at all 1288 model sales in Rosemont, we see a similar outcome with a huge increase and then a huge decrease.

This is a graph of a PUD community in the Citrus Heights area. In light of few recent sales in the complex, I wanted to help illustrate how the market has seen the subject complex compared to two surrounding complexes. While values have mostly been higher in these two other complexes, all three PUD communities have taken a more or less similar trip over the past decade.

I don’t have the other half of this graph, but trust me, you could pretty much flip the current trend since 2005 and it would fairly accurate. I wanted to include this one to illustrate how far the condo market has declined since the bubble burst. Older lower-end condos have particularly struggled in light of greater affordability outside the condo subdivision and sometimes lending problems on condominiums.

In contract, more well established classic neighborhoods in the Sacramento have a much less defined “tree view”. In other words, while property values have still seen a hefty decline from the top of the market, values are still higher historically speaking than many surrounding areas. River Park is a good example as you can see values hovering well above 2002, where as many areas have property values deeper into 2001 right now.

The Curtis Park neighborhood shows a similar trend. The graph above isolates all sales with a GLA between 2000-2600. I put together graphs like this sometimes to help show context historically for my clients.

Lastly, here is “The Bluffs” condo subdivision in Fair Oaks. You’ve probably seen these condos when passing over the American River on Hazel Avenue since they overlook the river and sit right on top of the “bluffs”.

I figured it would be interesting to show you a few brief examples of trends over the past 10 or so years. It’s interesting to me to see the market from such a perspective, and I believe it can be helpful to inform making a purchase and investment strategy too.

What do you think? Anything you’d like to add?

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