The market is going to implode. No, it’s actually all good. There are so many opinions right now. Take a look at the housing personas and let me know which one(s) you’ve seen. Then I have a big market update for those interested.
WHAT IS YOUR HOUSING PERSONA?
Doomsday Daniel: The market is going to crash like it did years ago.
Worried Will: Not making any decisions because he’s so worried.
Zoe Zillow: Totally obsessed with Zillow.
Pedro Prophet: Makes new predictions when old ones don’t come true.
Bubble Betty: This is definitely another housing bubble.
Fine Fiona: The market is fine. There are no worries.
Waffling Wally: Sorta kinda 50/50 about the market.
Headline Harlow: This person says whatever the latest headlines say.
Foreclosure Frances: Another foreclosure wave is coming. Just wait.
Polly Pollyanna: It’s all good and it’s always a good time to buy and sell.
Uncertain Ursula: Honestly not sure what to make of this current market.
Bloodthirsty Benjamin: Cannot wait for a crash to buy investments.
Withdrawn Wionna: Stepped aside because she cannot afford the market.
Forbearance Felix: All housing conversations lead back to forbearance.
Spencer Spinster: Negative housing aspects are spun into something positive.
Rosy Rosario: Sees everything through a rose-colored lens.
Equity Ernesto: Has huge equity to deploy to a different neighborhood.
Discouraged Dominic: Has struggled to get an offer accepted.
Eva Exodus: Close to moving to Idaho. Or South Carolina. Or Texas.
Sell Soon Stanley: Getting ready to list because the top is near.
Normal Norman: The market is normal and not in a “bubble”.
FOMO Finnegan: He’s jumping in because he’s afraid of missing out.
Sariyah Stats: Has stats and numbers to quote. Always.
Bentley Buzzword: The market is headed toward a “shift” in the future.
Cyclepants Chloe: The market has a 7 year cycle and time is up.
Laid-back Lexi: Not stressed about housing. Always chill.
Carson Corrector: Prices will correct but not implode.
Walter One Metric: The market will turn as soon as this one thing happens.
Bailey Broken Crystal Ball: Nobody knows the future.
This is all in good fun. I hope you enjoyed this. What other names would you suggest? Did I miss anything?
———————- (skim or digest slowly) ———————–
BIG MARKET UPDATE
For those interested, here’s a big Sacramento market update:
THE SHORT VERSION:
Here is a highlight reel to talk through some of the bigger themes right now. In short, the stats are stunning and this is likely the most competitive market we’ve ever had. Demand is simply excessive while supply is anemic.
QUICK RECAPS:
I’m thinking about doing these charts every month. Do you like them?
NOTE: I’m not going to do Yolo or El Dorado County charts because there aren’t enough sales. Stats would be ALL over the place year over year.
THE LONGER VERSION (organized by county):
1) Sacramento Region
2) Sacramento County
3) Placer County
4) El Dorado County
I welcome you to share some of these images on your social or in a newsletter. Please use this stuff. In case it helps, here are 5 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.
1) SACRAMENTO REGION:
2) SACRAMENTO COUNTY:
3) PLACER COUNTY:
4) EL DORADO COUNTY:
Other visuals: Not that you needed more, but check out my social media in coming days and weeks for extra visuals. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.
Thanks for being here.
Questions: Which housing persona(s) have you seen? What stands out to you about the market lately? I’d love to hear your take.
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Stats Ryan, did you run into issues with duplicate records? Any other issues running the numbers this month?
Haha. Yeah, I definitely identify with the stats persona. Unfortunately there are some duplicate sales listed in MLS right now. I’m really hoping they will figure this out and I will revisit any data in 2021 to see if there are any noteworthy differences once the issue has been solved. For now the numbers I pulled are consistent with the trend we’ve been seeing overall in the market, so I’m inclined to say data duplicates have not been compromised to the point of showing something incorrect. That’s my take for now and I hope I’m right. Ultimately it is bothersome to see this issue and I hope Metrolist understands how critical it is to solve this issue for the sake of trust. For any onlookers, what has happened lately is there are properties showing up as sales multiple times. For instance, there is one sale that is listed in Sacramento, Folsom, and Fair Oaks (it is located in Sacramento though). If this happens too many times it can skew the numbers, so it’s a big deal to rectify.
Rollercoaster Rollie: what goes up must come down.
I wish I’d thought of that. Too good Mark. Thank you.
Thanks Ryan! These have to take you hours to do!
Thanks so much. It does take a while. I have a system down, but it does take hours for sure.
Oscar Ostrich-bury my head in the sand and ignore it all but my parents are Sariyah Stats and Bailey Broken Crystal Ball with Uncle Bloodthirsty Benjamin and Aunt Polly Pollyanna
Thanks so much. I love the Oscar Ostrich. I think at times it’s easy to think everyone is thinking about real estate, but it’s just not true. I’ll have to think about my parents. I hadn’t even thought to go there… 🙂
Thank you so much for putting these together. I always find them insightful and funny. It helps me tap into the market quite a bit more than I would on my own!
Thanks Michelle. I appreciate it. I thought this would maybe combine some humor with stats. I always like that combo. We’ll see how people perceive it. 🙂
Hi Ryan, wish you’d add Nevada County to your reports! We are part of the Sacramento region but we often are the forgotten child.
Thanks Bob. If I ever get hired to crunch numbers full-time by some sort of data firm, I will cover that county. For now I don’t cover this area because I don’t appraise there. For me I cover the 4-county region and I happen to serve within this area too.
My sense for outlying areas it’s critical to watch the entire region, so hopefully there is still some value here. I do have a colleague who covers Nevada trends though. He hasn’t posted much lately, but you can check out Brian here: https://snappraisal.com/
Carl the Complainer. He complained about the prices and taxes in California. Moved to Idaho and complained about the cold. He moved back to the neighborhood last week. Bought his house back for 20% more than he sold it for and his property taxes tripled. It’s not cold here though. I’m sure he will find something new to complain about soon.
Oh my. Ferris, you hit the nail on the head. This person absolutely exists and we all know it because we’re friends with him on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter… A new location might help Carl, but the problem is much deeper than geography. 🙂
Ryan, great post! I love this. So, my housing persona is Schizophrenic. It just depends on the data I’m analyzing at the moment.?
Love it. So good Jamie. Thank you.
I read Ryan’s blog today – oh, boy Gary
Thanks Gary. 🙂
I am happy you are healthy and working,
see you in person soon for a Sacramento Association of REALTORS class.
Morris Lum CIPS
NAR Emeritus Broker
Educational Committee SAR
Commercial Council SAR
Thank you so much Morris. I really look forward to the days of hanging in person at SAR. There is one class I love to teach also, but it’s three hours and I’ve told SAR it’s just too long to do on Zoom. 🙂
Hope you are well.
Robert Realist here–I tell you what’s going on. 😉 Ryan, I think you might be Charles Chartist, perhaps married to Sariyah Stats…
Michael, you definitely should have written this post. I love it. 🙂 That’s definitely part of who I am.