El Dorado County

The blazing hot market & uncertainty

March 13, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

The market has been white hot, but there is also lots of uncertainty right now too. Let’s talk about this and take a deep dive into the latest stats for those interested. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

A few things I want to mention:

1) Layers: There are many layers that make the housing market move and sometimes unexpected things happen. Who would have thought we’d be talking about rates at 3% or a virus?

2) Dumpster fire: Social media is like a raging dumpster fire right now in light of coronavirus posts. It’s been unreal, so I’ve had to distance myself from scrolling too much. Can you relate?

3) Keeping my blog name: This won’t become the COVID-19 Appraisal Blog, but we’ll talk about the virus as needed as it relates to housing. No fear. No hype. Objective thoughts and analysis. Ultimately it’s important to have honest housing conversations and consider things that could affect the future.

4) Be at peace: I’m profoundly aware of the need to remain calm and have a sense of peace, but I’m also aware that probably won’t happen by accident. This might seem odd to mention, but I want to encourage everyone to find ways to cultivate peace right now in uncertain times. If you need ideas too, reach out. This is way more important than anything else I talk about, which is why I’m mentioning it.

Anyway, that’s what’s on my mind. Now for those interested let’s take a deep dive into local housing trends.

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Prices are back to summer
Has coronavirus affected the market?
Watching for a coronavirus effect
Lack of confidence
More competitive at lower prices
More multiple offers
The market is accelerating
Mortgage rates & Debbie Downer
You still have to price it right
Sales volume is lackluster
Back to the nominal peak
More visuals for surrounding counties

DOWNLOAD 90 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Back to summer: The median price in Sacramento County jumped $20,000 from January to February. I know that sounds sensational to see a $5.3% increase, but keep in mind the median price was $385,000 at the height of summer last year, so the bigger story is we basically got back to where summer was plus a few percent. It’s pretty common by March or so to see the median price back to where it was during summer, but in a more aggressive year this can happen in February. On paper the market is glowing, but the big elephant in the room is the coronavirus, so let’s talk about it.

Has coronavirus affected the market? Someone called me yesterday and asked if coronavirus has affected the housing market. I wrote about this last week and I basically told the guy we don’t have any real data yet. So far in Sacramento this year the market has felt competitive and any threat of an outbreak has seemed to be hampered by the sexiness of low mortgage rates. However, we haven’t really had many COVID-19 cases manifest locally and people haven’t been too concerned. Though this week social media began to panic and it seems like we’ve reached an inflection point as events get cancelled, people are practicing social distancing, and familiar faces like Tom Hanks have the virus. In short, it seems like many people have shifted to take this more seriously and in terms of real estate that’s something that could easily affect buyer and seller behavior in coming time. I realize a focus on real estate right now seems trivial when talking about a pandemic, but that’s what my blog does. In short, let’s pay closer attention to the stats in coming weeks especially.

Watching for a coronavirus effect: If we’re looking at recent sales, it likely won’t show us an effect of the coronavirus because sales tell us what the market used to be like when properties got into contract 30 to 60 days ago. If we begin to see an impact it’s going to start with what buyers and sellers are thinking right now, which will translate into what they do. Thus it’s important to listen for seller and buyer sentiment and to watch whether sellers are listing their homes and whether buyers step aside with a “wait and see” stance. More specifically, I recommend watching the number of new listings hitting the market, expired listings, price reductions, the number of sales happening, days on market, the number of pendings, number of multiple offers, credits being offered, etc… It’s tempting to look at prices as a gauge for any COVID-19 effect, but prices are the last place a trend shows up.

Lack of confidence: The big deal happening right now is consumers are losing confidence. On one hand the stock market doesn’t technically mean much for most buyers trying to qualify for a mortgage because their income isn’t based on Wall Street. But losing money in a 401K over time can certainly lead to less confidence about making other big financial decisions. So far the housing market has felt hyper-competitive this year locally because of low rates, but that can change quickly depending on how consumers feel about the economy, job market, and of course health. I know, housing is a need, so it’s different than choosing whether to eat out right now or not. But it’s also true buyers and sellers don’t always feel the need at every moment to pursue buying and selling. Like I said last week, markets don’t like uncertainty, so infusing more uncertainty into the economy and housing market is a big deal for how the market feels and what the market does. In all of this we’d be wise to avoid hype and sensational ideas. Let’s look to data to inform our perception of what is actually happening.

Okay, back to some stats.

More competitive at lower prices: Buyers know this. It’s been hard to get into contract lately – especially at lower prices where the market is more aggressive. Let me show you this with a bunch of yellow dots representing the sales price to original list price ratio. If you’re not familiar with this metric, when a property sells at 100% it means it sold at exactly the price it was listed. Likewise when the ratio is 103% it’s a sign a home sold three percent higher than the list price. Anyway, when looking at all February sales there are more properties selling above 100% at lower prices. This tells us homes are getting bid up more at lower prices. Duh, thanks Captain Obvious. I know this isn’t a surprise, but it’s fascinating to see visually. Here’s a big takeaway though. NOT everything is selling for more than the list price – even at lower prices. I know it doesn’t seem that way in the trenches of escrows, but there is no denying this reality when looking at the stats.

More multiple offers this year: This has been the most aggressive beginning of the year in several years. Technically the market saw 27% more multiple offers this year compared to last year at the same time.

The market is accelerating: For a long while I’ve been talking about how the market is slowing because that’s what the stats were showing, but I’m changing my tune because the market is accelerating again. Here are two images to consider. When we look at the median price in the region based on the previous twelve months, price growth has clearly tapered. It’s like you’re driving on the freeway and you take your foot off the gas pedal. You’re still moving forward, but you’re not going as fast. But when we look at the past 90 days in each respective year it’s obvious the market is starting to accelerate again.

SLOWING TREND:

SPEEDING UP LATELY:

Mortgage rates & Debbie Downer: This year the market has felt dramatically different than last year and the culprit is low mortgage rates. Having rates between 3 to 3.5% has been like injecting a steroid into the housing market because it’s made things super competitive. For some it’s helped create more affordability or at least incentive to get into the game, but this also artificially inflates prices and it’s not sustainable. I know I sound like Debbie Downer, but such low rates are a bit like injecting Cortisone into a bad hip. It feels good for a while until it wears off.

You still have to price it right: It’s tempting to think the market is so aggressive that you can price however you want. Nope. It’s still a price-sensitive sellers’ market. Even though it feels crazy right now due to low rates, buyers are still in tune with prices and not willing to offer any price out of desperation. Case-in-point: Here is what just about every neighborhood looks like. The longer a home is on the market, the further it tends to sell from its original price. It seems in most areas bidding wars happen in the first seven days and if the market is not biting at your price you better give serious consideration to doing a price reduction. If the market is speaking, it’s time to listen.

Sales volume is lackluster: Prices have been glowing and we’re seeing multiple offers, but sales volume is lackluster. On in more positive terms we could say the number of sales is pretty normal – but definitely on the lower side of normal. In the region we seem to have a new rhythm these past two years of 26,000 sales, but that’s clearly down from 28,000 in previous years (see image). Some say more new homes is the reason, but new construction hasn’t been that robust. Moreover, sales volume started to suffer as soon as mortgage rates shot up in 2018, so to me lower volume has more to do with buyers backing off (and affordability). With that said, we’ve been seeing fewer listings this year especially, so over time this can lead to fewer sales too.

Back to the nominal peak: The median price is officially back to where it was at the peak of the market in 2005. This honestly doesn’t mean anything because there isn’t any formula for the market where a “pop” or change happens when reaching a certain price level. But as a guy watching data closely for so many years, the numbers geek in me has been waiting a long time to see this happen. But again, it doesn’t mean anything. Technically when comparing value today with a date in the past it’s important to factor in how the value of the dollar has changed over time. If we use an inflation calculator the value of the dollar in 2005 at $395,000 would actually be worth $520,000 today. This is seriously anal and most people could care less about this technical conversation, but I wanted to mention it because it’s worth knowing. Also, I’ll hopefully avoid persecution on Twitter from the economics community. For me there is a practical takeaway here though because you’ll not hear me say stuff like, “Values are back to 2005”. Nope. Technically they’re not. But the nominal price is back to 2005, so that’s why I say things like, “Prices metrics are back to where they used to be.”

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 90 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What stands out to you about the market right now? What else would you add? What are you hearing about coronavirus?

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How much value does a pool really add?

February 18, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 18 Comments

What is a built-in pool worth? I get asked this question all the time. Well, let’s look at some fresh stats to help show why there isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer.

New Pool Stats: I pulled some stats and I’m excited to share these. If you aren’t local, does your market look similar regarding pools? Also, what other property features besides pools could we look at this way?

BIG POINTS:

– There are more pools at higher prices
– There are less pools at lower prices
– The percentage of pools differs greatly by location
– Some areas have tiny lots, so there are less pools
– The market expects a pool in some price ranges

THE HUGE VALUE POINT:

It’s easy to get stuck giving the same value adjustment every time we see a pool, but the market doesn’t pay the same amount for a pool everywhere because buyers have different expectations based on location and price range. So a pool probably isn’t worth anything in Antarctica while it’s worth way more in Arizona. As local stats show, in some areas like Granite Bay, buyers hands-down expect a pool to be present while in other places pools are extremely rare. Of course just because a pool is not common doesn’t mean it doesn’t add value. I’m just saying this gives us pause to consider the value of a pool might not be the same everywhere.

SORRY: I know I didn’t answer the question in my blog title, but that’s on my purpose. My goal is to give us something to think about rather than a bogus adjustment that isn’t going to apply everywhere. But if you do want to find out what a pool is worth, start comparing homes with and without pools to see if you can discern a price difference.

MARKET UPDATE VIDEO: Here’s a market update I did a few weeks ago. It’s about 40 minutes. Enjoy below (or here) if you wish.

SPEAKING GIGS THIS WEEK: On Friday I’m talking at the Gold County Women’s Council of Realtors. Then on Monday night I’m talking at the Real Estate Round Table (at a tavern).

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What stands out to you about the data above? What is the most or least value you’ve ever seen for a built-in pool? Anything to add?

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The market is hot (but dull on paper)

February 12, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

The market looks really dull on paper, but it’s not. Well, the latest sales stats from January are sluggish, but one of the worst things we can do this time of year is get stuck on sales. The problem is the market is actually heating up right now, but we just won’t see it for a couple months until current hot pendings start closing escrow. Here are a few fresh analogies to help explain this dynamic. Then for those interested, let’s take a deep dive into the market.

Examples to explain the market at this time of year:

Pregnancy test: You can technically be pregnant but an over-the-counter test won’t tell you that for a couple of weeks. Similarly, the market is heating up, but we won’t see the results of the market changing for a couple months until current pendings start closing escrow.

Getting a pay raise: You got a pay raise, but you won’t see it reflected until your next paycheck in a few weeks or months. The market is exactly like that. Something good is happening, but we don’t quite see it in the sales stats yet (but we do see it in the pendings).

Election results: The polls jut closed and there’s definitely a winner, but we don’t know who it is until the votes are actually counted. This reminds us of today. We don’t always know exactly what the stats are going to be in a couple months, but we do sense the market getting hot.

Planting a seed: The market is like planting a seed. You know something is growing, but you cannot see it yet until it pokes above ground in a month or two.

Thank you Twitter friends for helping me crowdsource some of these examples.

CLASS I’M TEACHING: By the way, I’m doing my favorite class at SAR on Feb 18th from 9am-12pm called “How to Think Like an Appraiser.” Sign up here.

THE BIG POINT: In a normal January and February the market is in a weird spot. It’s out of hibernation from the holidays, but we might not see any upward value movement in sales stats until March (even though the market started heating up in January and February). The truth? Data lags the trend. I remind myself of this every year. Anyway, here are some things to watch right now:

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

THE SHORT VERSION:

January stats were down
Hot stats have an asterisk
Strong pendings so far
The market feels like 2017
Competitive feel vs increases
Pretty weak January volume
No “full” priced offers yet
Multiple offers growing
Sales volume feels normal (sort of)
Why volume slumped
Low rates are like steroids
Listings are coming
Ain’t nothing wrong with a slower pace
More visuals for surrounding counties

DOWNLOAD 82 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

January stats were down: Usually January real estate numbers are sluggish, which is why we shouldn’t look to them to boost our self-esteem. This makes sense though because closed sales reflect what the market was doing during November and December when these properties got into contract. Here’s a good picture of the market where you can see clear softening from December to January in every category (this is normal for the time of year).

Hot stats have an asterisk: Most price metrics right now are up 5-7% compared to last year and this makes the market sound super hot. But one thing we have to realize is we’re comparing today with a very dull season last year. So for the past few months we’ve seen sexy stats that make it seem like the market is going insane, but we need to be aware of how easily numbers can get inflated if we don’t recognize how dull the market was then compared to now.

Strong pendings so far: The sales numbers for January are dull, but the seasonal market is definitely heating up. We just don’t quite see it in the stats yet. Last week 500 properties got into contract in the Sacramento Region. There were 600 new listings also. Overall pendings look to be up slightly compared to the past couple years at this time.

The market feels like 2017: It’s important to recognize the temperature of the market is definitely changing for the season as it’s getting “hot” around here, but it’s not also the type of hyper-aggressive market we saw in 2013 either. I think a good way to describe today is it’s a price-sensitive sellers’ market that feels much more like 2016 or 2017 rather than 2013.

Competitive feel vs aggressive increases: The market is definitely competitive out there, but it’s also important to realize it’s possible to have a really competitive market without crazy value increases either. In other words, we can have lots of competition without enormous price gains. This is sort of what much of last year felt like actually where the market was competitive but price increases were more subdued. Of course the verdict is still out on this spring season, and it’s frankly going to be interesting to see how the numbers evolve in light of how low mortgage rates are.

Pretty weak January volume: The positive news is this January sales volume was up about 6% compared to last year, but it was actually the second lowest January in terms of sales volume in over a decade in Sacramento County.

No “full” priced offers yet: Did you watch “Full House” from the 80s and 90s? I sure did. But I’ll admit I haven’t jumped on the “Fuller House” reboot on Netflix. I’m just not interested. Anyway, the “Full House” home in San Francisco has been on the market and it’s not selling. It’s almost like buyers aren’t willing to overpay just because the house was on TV… Seriously though, this is a great lesson. Buyers won’t pay any price, but they will pay the right price. Did you hear that sellers?

Multiple offers growing: An interesting way to gauge the market is to consider multiple offers beause it’s a clue into the current market. We don’t have sales stats yet to show a “hot” spring, but we do have pendings, and this says something. Last month 44.5% of sales had more than one offer. This is actually higher than it was last year or any year for that matter since our MLS began tracking the number of offers.

Sales volume is normalizing (sort of): For over a year we saw sales volume drop, but over the past six months we’ve been coming out of the slump. Well, technically. Stats have been up these past six months, but we have to take this news in context because we’re comparing today’s numbers with really dull stats from the previous year. In short, on one hand we’ve seen volume sort of normalize so to speak over the past two quarters, but on the other hand we’re still down from previous years as you can see in the second image below. In fact, this past year saw about 1,500 to 2,000 fewer sales compared with the clear trend from 2016 through 2018. But here’s the thing to remember. Sales volume was lower these past two years, but it’s also on the lower side of normal. So if we look at 2014 and 2015, for instance, we can see this clearly. But the bigger truth is we’ve seemed to break away from the higher trend from 2016 through 2018. So in this regard sales volume is still down. Are we now entering a new normal with lower volume? We’ll see.

Why volume slumped: When giving market updates the conversation about slumping volume almost always leads into talking about anemic listings. The idea is volume has slumped because there are fewer listings available. It sounds logical because if you have fewer listings, you’re going to have fewer sales. The truth is over time if sellers don’t list this could absolutely affect sales volume. But here’s the thing to remember. When volume started to really slump in 2018 it wasn’t because of a lack of listings. It was because mortgage rates shot up and it shocked buyers out of the market. Buyers definitively put their foot on the brakes and we saw the effect of that for over a year. So while anemic listings can certainly influence sales volumes figures over time I think we have to recognize that what started this was a reaction against increasing rates (which is really about affordability).

Low rates are like steroids: Mortgage rates have almost never been as low as they are right now, and we have a market that is very sensitive to rate changes. So when rates move up, we really feel it and the market gets dull. Likewise, when rates drop, buyers jump into the game and the market feels much more competitive. Buyers at the moment need to get into contract quickly to lock in a low rate, so that only compounds a competitive feel.

Expect more listings: Buyers have been patiently waiting for good product to hit the market and that’s finally beginning to happen. There are hundreds more listings going live every week and we can expect to see this continue through probably mid-Summer (which is the normal trend).

Ain’t nothing wrong with a slower pace: There is no mistaking a slower pace of price growth lately. As you can see when looking at the annual median price in the Sacramento region, the market has clearly decelerated. This doesn’t mean it’s declining. It just means growth has been slower compared with the beginning of this real estate cycle. My observation is sometimes the real estate community struggles to admit this because people buy into the idea that you can only say good things about the market. But markets don’t always increase and they aren’t always aggressive either.

Okay, I need to mention one thing. When we look at the past quarter of sales for each respective year we actually see a more robust quarter this past year. Does this mean the market is starting to accelerate? Well, that could be, and mortgage rates could certainly be an x-factor here. But one thing we do need to consider is last year the market was REALLY dull, so I wouldn’t put too much stock for now in comparing today’s numbers with last year. My advice? Let’s get a few more months of data before drawing conclusions.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 82 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Do you have any analogies to add to my list above? What stands out to you about the market right now? What are you seeing out there? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

When sellers care too much about the Zestimate

October 16, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

A seller’s Zestimate is really low and he’s pretty worried about it. It might seem a bit vain to care so much, but the seller is concerned since he’s heard buyers might offer less on his home if Zillow’s estimate is too low. Is that legit? Let’s talk about it. Then for those interested I have a huge market update below.

Three things about sellers caring too much about Zillow:

1) Some buyers need education: Some buyers do get hung up on Zillow, but these buyers are very likely the minority. Frankly, a buyer putting more weight on Zillow than actual comps or neighborhood trends is simply coming to the market as misinformed.

2) Obsession means more: If a home really is worth more than a Zestimate, buyers will recognize that and offer accordingly. In other words, the vast bulk of buyers won’t be getting stuck on a lower Zestimate when they know value is there. Will some? Maybe. But let’s remember the obsessive nature of buyers today. They scour all homes as soon as they hit the market, they’re in tune with every price reduction, and they often get a sense for what is both overpriced and underpriced in a neighborhood because they’re paying such close attention. Thus to think a buyer in today’s big data climate would forget about all the hours of obsessive research and get stuck on a Zestimate is out of sync with how buyers are approaching the market today.

3) Matching the list price: The irony is the Zestimate might actually end up chasing the list price when the home does come to the market. This doesn’t always happen, but there are numerous examples online of a Zestimate being really low only to be changed within days of the listing to match whatever the list price ends up being. Here’s a lopsided example I noticed with a Chip & Jo house and here’s a recent example from Jim the Realtor in San Diego.

NOTE: I wrote about Zillow two weeks in a row. It won’t be three next week.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

If I had to boil down the market to a few phrases I’d say fairly normal stats, slumping sales volume, modest price growth, overpricing sellers, and some hesitancy among buyers. Ultimately stats are showing about what we’d expect for this time of year, which is why I’m saying the market feels mostly normal. This doesn’t mean there aren’t red flags of course.

DOWNLOAD 90+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Stats feel mostly normal
Not every fall season is the same
Rent control hasn’t stopped the market
Year-over-year price growth is modest
Sacramento is busting landlords for MJ
Distressed sales hardly exist
Volume was up this past month (but it was still a low month)
We’re about to have a new soccer stadium

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Prices likely peaked for the season: Prices have been flattening or softening in most areas in the region. This doesn’t mean the market is dull or not competitive. It simply means prices are softening and we’re not surprised because that normally happens around this time. For reference, the median price often dips about 5% or so during the fall.

PG&E shutting off power: If you didn’t know, PG&E shut off power to more than 700,000 customers for a couple days last week in light of a perceived risk of fire. I’ve been asked if this is going to affect the real estate market. Here’s my take. If this became a frequent issue it’s hard to imagine buyers not considering it when making offers and choosing where to live. If this is an isolated incident though, it’s likely to have no real impact. Of course one other layer here is we could see buyers expecting or appreciating generators being present.

Not all falls are equal: It’s good to remember not all fall seasons are created equal. What I mean is sometimes the fall season will feel pretty dull with larger price cuts and other times the market just feels a little more flat. The verdict is still out on what this coming fall season will look like exactly, but there is no mistaking we are in the midst it now.

The last run on the market before Thanksgiving: There is typically a last run on the market about this time of year. Now that everyone is settled in from vacations and the kids are in school, we usually see a last move to buy before the holidays arrive. This is exactly why there is almost always an uptick in sales volume in December. It’s not that there are more homes that actually sell in December. It’s just there are a higher number of pendings from October and November that end up closing in December.

Rent control: The market hasn’t stopped because of rent control in the City of Sacramento. I wanted to mention this because sometimes we lose sight of seeing the market in the midst of strong feelings and sensational headlines. When looking at 2-4 unit sales there were slightly more this September compared to last year, and pendings are fairly normal for the time being. This doesn’t mean everything is going to be peachy. I’m not saying that at all. I only want to emphasize the market is still moving and over time we’ll understand how it’s all going to play out. By the way, I’ll be doing a rent control Q&A soon.

Modest price growth: Last month we saw most price metrics were up about 2-4% compared to the same month last year in 2018. This is much more subdued growth compared to previous years.

Busting landlords for illegal marijuana grows: The City of Sacramento has been busting landlords for tenants growing cannabis over the legal limit (six plants). This is a huge deal and something to watch because some landlords have been getting excessive fines (we’re talking hundreds of thousands of dollars). This story is seeming to fly under the radar, but there are huge implications for property rights and investing in Sacramento and beyond. The silver lining for many landlords though is the courts have seemed to shoot down the city’s tactics lately.

Meth houses & El Camino: If you’re a Breaking Bad fan you probably already watched El Camino. It only seemed fitting to share the DEA’s published list of known drug labs. Unfortunately the list has not been updated in years, but it’s better than nothing. Here’s a study also on the impact of drug labs on surrounding homes (PDF).

Distressed sales: Ten years ago distressed sales dominated the market and were about 80% of all sales in the region, but now they’re hardly even 1% of sales.

Slumping sales volume: It’s been a lower year of sales volume as we’re down about 7% compared to last year. I know that doesn’t sound like much, but it does translate to about 2,000 less sales. I wouldn’t call this a market meltdown, but we’ve definitely seen a slowdown since sales volume has been lower 15 out of the past 17 months in the Sacramento region. This is still on the lower side of normal, but it’s something to watch over time to understand exactly what it means.

Hesitancy: Buyers are picky about getting into contract as well as staying in contract. On top of that some buyers are feeling hesitant. They wonder if we’re near the peak for this cycle, so they feel less confident about playing the game.

New soccer stadium: We’re finally getting an MLS soccer team in Sacramento after years of drama. Someone asked me if this will affect the market. In short, the stadium is only one piece of the pie in the entire Railyards development. There will be 6,000 to 10,000 housing units and millions of square feet of commercial space including a Kaiser campus. So buyers focus on the entire package including the stadium rather than saying, “Yo, I’m only buying because of the stadium.” Oh, and buyers located multiple miles away are very unlikely to look at fresh neighborhood listings now and say, “Dude, I’m totally going to pay more because there’s a soccer stadium ten to twenty minutes away.”

Soccer KCRA interview: By the way, I did an interview with Channel 3 yesterday about the new soccer stadium.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FIVE THINGS TO TALK ABOUT:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market has continued to show price growth, but it’s been a more modest rate of growth. This is why I’m saying the market is slowing. Let’s remember “slow” is not a dirty word in real estate.

2) PRICE CYCLES: Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. What do you notice?

3) LAST YEAR vs THIS YEAR: Last year the market felt dark and many wondered if it was about to take a turn downward. That hasn’t been the vibe so far this year though. Most price metrics are up 2-4% or so this year. I’m not saying the market is perfectly healthy, but it feels profoundly different this year so far. It’s amazing what happens when mortgage rates slide down and help the market feel more normal….

4) VOLUME SLUMP: Volume was actually higher in September compared to last year at the same time, but it was still a pretty low September. In fact, in Sacramento County it was the second lowest September over the past 11 years. It’s important to remember last year was painfully dull, so it’s not all that hard to have a higher sales volume this year, right? The bigger story is sales volume is down in the region by about 7% over the past year. Moreover, volume has been down in the region for 15 out of the last 17 months. This is definitely something to keep on the radar. In my mind this is one of the most important trends to watch because it tells us whether buyers have their foot on the gas or brakes.

5) PRICES ARE SOFTENING FOR THE FALL: The market generally slowed in September in terms of price growth. This is why I’m saying prices feel a bit flat (even though they’re up from last year). This is normal for the time of year.