Stop expecting lightning speed in real estate

Properties were selling in lightning speed a few years ago, but that’s not the vibe today. The truth is it could easily take twice as long to sell today, but the stats actually feel somewhat normal. I wonder if we’ve forgotten what the market used to feel like before 2020. Let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
10/23/24 SAFE Credit Union (details TBA)
10/29/24 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/7/2024 Think Like an Appraiser (3 hours) TBA
11/19/24 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A 9am
12/5/24 Made 4 More Team (Exporting Data from MLS)
12/11/24 Gateway: Think Like an Appraiser (private)
1/15/25 Mike & Joel Event (details TBA)
1/24/25 PCAR Market Update (details TBA)
2/6/25 She Invests event (TBA)
2/11/25 MLS Meeting TBA
4/8/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

I saw this Miata over the weekend, and it made smile. Haha. If the owner gets wind of this, please take me for a spin. Well, a loan officer on X said “higher for longer” when I shared this image, and that made me chuckle. So far that’s been the vibe in the housing market where mortgage rates have seemed to stay higher.

WHY ARE WE STUCK?

I find many people are having a hard time with the stats today because properties aren’t selling instantly like they used to. For some, this makes sense if they entered real estate in 2020, and only knew hyper speed as the norm. But to be fair, there’s also a disparity between properties that are actually selling (my stats below), and listings that are lingering. I suspect it’s tough at times to think past the ones that aren’t moving. Ultimately, my advice is to step back to gain some perspective about what “normal” looks like, and stop expecting 2021 vibes in 2024. And maybe consider a price reduction if you’re sitting without any interest.

Check out these stats though. Dorothy, we’re not in 2021 anymore…

NORMAL & SUGARCOATING

When looking at the stats, the number of days it’s taking to get into contract has been pretty normal lately. I’m not sugarcoating here. There are some really abnormal things happening today such as the low number of sales. But days on market is…. pretty normal according to the stats. The red line represents the pre-2020 average, and the green line is today. The interesting part about 2024 is the market was more competitive in the beginning of the year, and things have slowed as inventory has built.

And here’s what 2021 looked like (orange). It’s astonishing to see that properties were basically selling in less than half the normal amount of time back then.

OKAY, LET’S LOOK AT MORE YEARS

The black numbers are October, and 35 days is pretty consistent with many years prior to 2020. Could this change in the future? Of course. I’m just saying right now the stats aren’t sensational.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

I might write about price reductions soon. I think there is a need for more context as to what is happening today compared with the norm so to speak. Let me know if that might be of interest.

SELLING LOWER AS YOU LINGER

The longer you’re on the market, the lower you tend to sell from the original list price. Duh, we know that’s true. But it’s still cool to see it on a visual. Here are closed sales in the region over the past week. It’s really the first two weeks where things tend to get bid up more. What I really love to see though are properties that sold below the original price immediately since it shows those sellers listened to the market right away. 

THINKING ABOUT WEEKS INSTEAD OF DAYS

Instead of thinking about days on market, let’s think in terms of weeks. I think this is a cool way to consider the stats. And this is a good reminder that the trend isn’t the same in every county.

And here’s the same data, but days on market instead.

HELLO LONGER DAYS ON MARKET

One last batch of visuals. We’ve seen an increase in days on market in every local county. It seems most areas look like they’re almost at “normal” levels, but Yuba is getting up there. Let’s keep watching this over time.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Let’s keep watching the numbers and change our narrative as needed. Ultimately, I think it’s time to embrace a wider perspective with days on market stats and stop expecting 2021 lightning speed. Yet, I know it’s tough on sellers and agents to wait though, but the reality is market is going to involve more waiting. On that note, in light of the stats above, when do you suggest doing a price reduction?

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Does anything surprise you above? What are you noticing with listings right now.

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