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days on market

Is it just me or is the market slowing?

November 12, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 24 Comments

The market is slowing. We’ve been hearing that all over the place lately and it’s been a common clickable headline. But it’s not just hype because there’s some truth to it. Today I want to show this reality with a few visuals, mention three takeaways, and unpack a huge Sacramento market update for those interested. I hope this is helpful – whether you’re local or not.

Tighter Prices: Is the market slowing? How would you show that? Take a look at the rate of price changes in the images below and let me know what you see.

OCTOBER:

PAST 90 DAYS:

ENTIRE YEAR:

TAKEAWAYS:

1) Slowing: Prices are still up, but they’re not up by as much this year. What I mean is in years past we’d regularly see 7-10% price increases when running stats, but over the past few months we’re starting to see 4-6% increases instead. This helps show the market as a whole is slowing.

2) Dull fall & critical thinking: Stats have begun to change more significantly these past few months since a slower feel hit the market. A few months back sales volume dipped, but now after multiple months of lower volume this is becoming a trend (at least for the fall). As we watch this unfold and see that prices are much tighter together as I showed in the charts above, let’s consider two things: 1) Price stats today are more subdued in light of a much duller fall season (duh); and 2) Last year’s fall season ended up being a little more flat than usual, so higher prices from then could be helping this year’s numbers appear a little more depressed. I know, it sounds like I’m trying to soften the idea of the market slowing, but that’s not it at all. I’m thinking critically through the numbers and explaining in part why they are the way they are. Ultimately I find myself interpreting these numbers cautiously, and I think we need to get beyond this fall to see the bigger picture of what the numbers show us and where the trend is going to go.

3) Wide & narrow view: I chose to share stats in three ways on purpose to show something important. Did you notice a difference in the price change depending on how wide or narrow the dates were – whether 30 days, 90 days, or 12 months? Basically the more data we considered, the tighter the price gap was. This is a good reminder to look at the market in different ways to try to discern the trend. It’s also a good reminder to be careful of pulling older data because sometimes that can mask a trend that is happening right now.

The future: Naturally when hearing about momentum slowing in a market it’s easy to start predicting the future as we see price gaps tighten. Many say the market is going to crash, others say it will correct by 10%, and some say it will level off and progress into a state of balance. All three of these ideas have one thing in common. They’re guesses.

I hope that was helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Last year the fall season felt more flat than not, but this year is a different story. We are definitely having more of a dull seasonal lull that reminds us how the market felt in 2014 when the fall season was definitively soft. Here are some of the things I’m watching right now. I’d love to hear what you are seeing. Please comment below or send me an email.

Graphs for your newsletter and social media: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy my post verbatim).

Adjusting to rates: Buyers have seemed to back off the market a bit lately, and we’re seeing the effect of that with lower sales volume. What’s up with this? The culprit could be increasing interest rates and a growing lack of affordability.

Balancing of power: Buyers have gained more power in recent months, though I don’t think sellers got the memo since they are still struggling with overpricing and pretending it’s an aggressive market from 2013 instead of a slower market in 2018. This doesn’t mean buyers have total control though. Keep in mind 41% of all sales last month had multiple offers, which tells us it’s not the type of market where buyers can lowball sellers and get whatever price they want.

Pricing lower this fall: Since the summer the median price has softened by 4% in Sacramento County, 5% in the region, and 7% in Placer County. This doesn’t mean every neighborhood lost 4-7% in value. These are county stats and they don’t translate into every area or price range. Keep in mind it’s normal to see a 5% or so reduction in the median price during a given fall season, but this year it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more pronounced price difference between spring and fall (we’ll see how it pans out).

The story of sales volume: In September volume was down a whopping 16% in the region, and that raised lots of eyebrows to make people wonder if the market was starting to tank. This past month sales volume was not as weak, but it was still down nearly 9% in the region and about 4% in Sacramento County. Over time we need to keep watching this trend to better understand if it’s a sign of a definitive change in the market or if it’s the byproduct of a dull fall season (or both). One thing to remember is despite a few months of gloomy sales volume recently, volume is only down 2% in 2018 in the Sacramento region.

Listings did peak: I’ve been talking about listings looking like they were peaking for the past couple months, and the stats now definitely show listings have crested for the season. This is normal for the time of year as sellers tend to pull back from the market and wait until spring to list. This is why the fall sometimes feels like a market of leftovers since many sellers are waiting until the next year.

Concessions and credits: Buyers have more options today, so they’re tending to ask sellers more often for credits, repairs, and concessions. It would be wise for sellers to listen to buyers and be aware they may need to give something to get the deal done.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from September to October?

3) Where are we in relation to peak prices in 2005?

4) What’s happening with sales volume?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • October volume down 4%
  • 2018 volume down 1% (January to October)
  • Annual volume is down 1.9% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely been down over the past 4-5 months.

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • October volume down 8.8%
  • 2018 volume down 2.1% (January to October)
  • Annual volume is down 2.5% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year overall, but it’s been down over the past 4-5 months.

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • October volume down 20.6%
  • 2018 volume down 4.9% (January to October)
  • Annual volume is down 5.4% (past 12 months)

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 60 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What do you see happening in the market right now? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Appraisal, Appraiser, CDOM, days on market, DOM, dull fall season, housig market in Sacramento, lower prices, Placer County housing market, real estate graphs, sacramento housing market, sacramento regional appraisal blog, sacramento regional housing market, slowing market, softening prices

Price ceilings & literal ceilings that are too low

July 12, 2017 By Ryan Lundquist 13 Comments

I have two types of ceilings on my mind. How do you know when a market begins to reach its price ceiling for the season? And how low can a ceiling be in a home and still be considered legitimate square footage by an appraiser?

I recently inspected a house where the ceiling was 6 feet 8 inches high. Is that tall enough to count? Is there such a thing as too low? Let’s talk about it. 

How low can a ceiling be? Lots of people think 8 feet is the minimum ceiling height because that’s a common height in most homes, but it’s actually 7 feet according to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI Z765). Technically ANSI says it’s okay to have a ceiling height at 6’4″ under beams though. Keep in mind sometimes a ceiling might have a downward slope like we see with a Tudor or the photo above. When ceilings slope really low, there is something called the “5 foot rule” where the appraiser can count any space above 5 feet as living area as long as over 50% of the ceiling area is at least 7 feet.

When appraisers observe houses with ceilings below 7 feet, they’ll typically email the lender and say, “Hey there, this property has a ceiling less than 7 feet, and that doesn’t cut it according to ANSI standards. How do you want me to proceed?” After hearing that there’s a good chance the lender might not want to do the loan. Of course a property with low ceilings can still have value and even be appraised, but it may need to be marketed to an investor paying cash instead of a buyer using conventional or FHA financing.

Market price ceilings: Switching ceiling gears, how would you know if the market was beginning to reach its price ceiling for the season? That’s a great question to ask since many markets in the United States are going to be doing just that over the next couple of months. As I said in June, the Sacramento market is beginning to slow down even though we don’t see it in the sales stats yet. This doesn’t mean the market is cold or values are declining. It only means we are seeing subtle clues to a slowing market as high altitude values from the spring are at the beginning of a downward seasonal descent.

Umm, please don’t say the market is slowing!!!

At times it’s not very popular in the real estate community to publicly talk about the market slowing, but it’s something that happens nearly every single year. I realize we have big headlines about the market being “hot”, and it really is in many way, but catching the symptoms of a slowing market is key for valuing properties (and it’s good for clients). I suggest starting to watch price reductions more closely because they’ve been increasing lately in Sacramento and this is one of the first signs of a slowing market. Also pay attention to days on market increasing in coming time along with some of the other factors above (including the sales to list price ratio). I highly recommend asking other real estate professionals the question, “What are you seeing out there?” It’s amazing the type of insight you can glean from title reps, loan officers, appraisers, agents, escrow officers, etc…

I hope that was helpful or interesting. Any thoughts?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

Values showed an increase again last month and sales volume was very steady compared to the past few Junes. Overall most price metrics were up 1-2% from last month, though the month prior they increased 2-4%. Inventory is still down about 20% from last year, and properties have been selling like hotcakes in only 9 days (that’s the median). In case you wanted to know, most price metrics are up about 7% from last year. One interesting thing to watch is FHA sales are starting to sag more noticeably as they ticked down a few percentage points to 21% of the market in Sacramento County. Granted, 1 in 5 sales is still quite a bit of FHA volume, but last year we were seeing 1 in 4 sales go FHA. It’s easy to think this means first-time buyers are getting squeezed out by Bay Area buyers, but that’s not really the case. My sense is the downtrend is due to more would-be FHA buyers using competitive conventional products instead of FHA. Lastly, it’s worth noting Curbed has a glowing article about Sacramento (cool that they quoted me too). This article is starting to go viral and it’s bound to get many locals pumped on how “hot” the Sacramento market is. Yet despite being “hot” in many ways, let’s remember to look for the signs of a slowing market because we have to realize the market usually hits its seasonal price ceiling right about now (but we won’t see it in the sales stats for a while). I could go on and on with words, but let me share some graphs to show the market visually.

DOWNLOAD 74 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Sacramento County graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

Sacramento Regional graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

Placer County graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

DOWNLOAD 74 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Any low ceiling stories to share? Is the price ceiling for the season just about here? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 5 ft rule, ANSI, appraisals, Appraiser, average sales price, avg price per sq ft, cash purchases, ceilings are too low, days on market, FHA, foreclosures, Home Appraiser, hot market, house appraisals, increasin market, Median Price, Placer County real estate trends, Sacramento County real estate trends, Sacrametion Regional Market, seasonal slow down, sensational news, trend graphs

10 things to know about low housing inventory

April 20, 2017 By Ryan Lundquist 20 Comments

Inventory is low. Really low. That’s one of the big stories right now in real estate, so I wanted to spend some time kicking around some thoughts. Let’s take a look at ten things to know about housing supply in Sacramento. If you aren’t local, I hope you can still find some value. Do you see any parallels to your market? Any thoughts? 

DOWNLOAD 50 graphs HERE: Please download new market graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT LOW HOUSING INVENTORY

1) Housing inventory is clearly on a declining trend.

inventory in sacramento county Since 2013 - part 2 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Housing supply has been vanishing over the past few years in light of greater buyer demand, sellers sitting instead of selling, less new construction, increasing sales volume, and other reasons.

2) Housing supply is really sparse (except at the top).

inventory - March 2017 - by home appraiser blog

Housing supply was low last year, but this year it’s 15-20% lower. Having less listings means it’s really competitive for buyers – especially under $400,000. However, inventory is not low at every price range as there are far more listings at the top. Before freaking out though, this is actually a normal trend we see almost every single month. But the disparity between under $500,000 and above $1,000,000 is striking. As an FYI, it’s worth noting the top of the market does feel a bit soft.

3) Inventory is still not as low as the Blackstone days.

inventory in sacramento county Since 2011 - by sacramento appraisal blog

It’s true that inventory is anemic, but we have to remember during 2012 and 2013 it was at one month for nearly an entire year when Blackstone and other investors were gutting the market. I mention this because while the market has an aggressive feel, it’s still not what it was. If inventory persists in declining though it will be a bloodbath in terms of competition for buyers (good for sellers though as a developer mentioned to me on Twitter). 

4) Inventory was 1400% higher ten years ago during the “bubble”.

inventory in sacramento county Since 2007 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Ten years ago during the worst of the real estate “bubble” popping we had a 14-month supply of homes for sale (as opposed to one month now).

5) Bank-owned inventory is not a driving factor today.

REOs and Short Sales Sacramento County - by Sac Appraisal Blog

Eight years ago over 70% of all sales in Sacramento County were REOs, but that number is now about 3%. Some folks promise a new “foreclosure wave”, but it’s definitely not here right now.

6) Low inventory is putting pressure on values to increase.

Median price since 2013 in sacramento county

Declining inventory over the past few years is a big factor in rising prices. Right now values are about where they were at the height of last summer (or slightly higher) after a lull in the fall in many neighborhoods in Sacramento County. But let’s not make the mistake to think the market is doing the same thing everywhere. The truth is in some areas increases have been modest at best over the past year while some price ranges feel flat, but the bottom of the market is hands-down experiencing the largest increases. Remember, in some price ranges the market feels more aggressive than actual value increases too, so it’s really important to sift through emotions, look at actual numbers, and not overprice because the market is “hot”. A good mantra for some areas is “Aggressive Demand, Modest Appreciation.”

7) Strong demand is a huge reason why inventory is declining:

price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county

Demand is strong right now for both buying and renting, and buyers and tenants are simply gobbling up almost anything out there (I say “almost” because buyers are still sensitive about adverse locations and overpriced homes). Thus it’s not surprising to see the median price is 7% higher than last year, the average sales price is 9% higher, and the average price per sq ft is about 9% higher. Prices increases from February to March were anywhere from 1-3% depending on the metric (this doesn’t mean values went up by 1-3% though). 

8) Increasing sales volume is one reason for lower inventory.

Cash in Q1 - by Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog

Housing inventory is the relationship between sales and listings, so if there are more sales and no real change in the number of listings it will naturally mean inventory as a metric will show a decline. Look at the graph above to see all sales since 2013 for the first quarter of the year. Can you see how sales volume is increasing? At the same time we see cash volume declining. This reminds us the market is trying to figure out what normal looks like. It’s healthy to see sales volume growing.

9) Low interest rates have helped take homes off the market.

Interest Rates Since 2008

Historically low interest rates have played a big role in shaping inventory in that some owners are sitting on a 3.5% interest rate from years ago and they are simply not going to move unless necessary. Why would they anyway if their replacement home would come with a much higher mortgage? This means there are fewer homes hitting the market that might otherwise sell.

10) Low inventory is causing homes to sell faster.

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog

Last year it was taking 5 days longer to sell a home and two years ago in March 2015 it was taking 15 days longer to sell a home. Can you see how low inventory makes a difference in how long it takes to sell? By the way, here is CDOM by price range. As you can see, the higher the price the longer it takes to sell. Just because it is a “hot” market does not mean every property is selling in 3 days.

BIG MONTHLY POST NOTE: Once a month I do a big market update (and it’s long purpose). Normally I talk about Placer County and the Sac Region too, but I tore my MCL a few weeks back, so I only had time to focus on Sacramento County in today’s post. Next month I’ll likely be back to normal (but I may change it up too).

DOWNLOAD 50 graphs HERE: Please download new market graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Did I miss anything? Any other thoughts as to why inventory is low? How would you describe the market right now? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: appraisal blog, appraisals in Sacramento, days on market, foreclosures, housing supply, housing trends, interest rates, low housing supply, low inventory, Lundquist Appraisal, market update, price increases, REOs, sacramento appraisers, Sacramento County, sales volume increasing, Short Sales, trend graphs

Seeing the real estate market without numbers (and a big Sacramento update)

June 13, 2016 By Ryan Lundquist 18 Comments

It’s not just about the numbers. Like many, I’m a huge fan of getting deep into real estate stats, but the truth is there are so many other ways to sniff out what the market is doing. Thus I’ve created a list of some of the things on my radar lately that help say something about the temperature of the market. Then for those interested, let’s crunch some numbers with my big monthly Sacramento market update. I’d love to hear your take. Any thoughts?

How to see the market moving - image purchased and used with permission from 123rf - Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Ways to see the real estate market without numbers:

  1. Facebook Posts: I can’t tell you how many posts I’ve seen lately saying, “Hey, my friend needs to rent a house. Anyone have something?” Seeing an increasing number of posts like this on Facebook or Nextdoor.com is definitely a symptom of rising rents and scarce inventory.
  2. Celebrity Flipping Seminars: Last week an HGTV flipping couple hosted a 4-day “how to flip” seminar in Sacramento, and this week a different “guru” is coming to town. If anything, this tells us the market for flipping has passed.
  3. Riskier Loans: As more lower-down payment loan products hit the market, it reminds us buyers need more options to afford higher prices.
  4. Sacramento Kings vs. Market - jokeSacramento Kings Wins: Here is an image to show the relationship between an NBA team winning and the housing market. Okay, there really isn’t a connection, but it almost looks like there is (you can make numbers say whatever you want).
  5. Less Property Tax Appeals: As the market has improved, assessment appeals have declined every year since 2008 in Sacramento County. Right now home owners are enjoying equity again and they’re hardly paying attention to their property tax bills. Here is an image to back that up.
  6. More Divorces: As the housing market has rebounded, it seems there are more divorces. I’ll admit stats are tricky in that some sources say divorces are increasing and others say they are not. It may be my personal experience, but I’ve done more divorce appraisals these past 2-3 years than I have in the previous ten years.
  7. Builders Being Less Cooperative: I’ve heard from several agents lately about local builders being less cooperative with agents representing buyers. That’s fairly normal for builders of course, though being less cooperative is certainly a luxury afforded by a market with tight inventory too. In other words, if the market had three times the housing supply, conversations might go differently at the sales office.
  8. The word “shift”: There is so much emphasis right now on the market shifting or maybe doing so in coming time. When the real estate community uses terms like shift, change, correction, or bubble, it can sometimes highlight what the market is doing (or at least what is on the mind of the real estate community).

Question: What is #9? I’d love to hear in the comments below. By the way, scroll to the bottom if you want to see some of my recent woodworking projects.

—————– For those interested, here is my big market update  —————–

Big monthly market update post - sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased from 123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: Yep, the stats show the market has been increasing. This doesn’t mean every single price range or neighborhood is going up in value, but county and regional data are definitely showing that trend overall. One of the bigger narratives is that housing inventory is still down by 15% in the region compared to last year. Sales volume has been up slightly for the year and it took 6 less days to sell last month compared to the previous month. For context, last year at the same time it was taking an average of 8 days longer to sell. This reminds us the market has been more competitive this year compared to last year, though don’t take that to mean value increases have been extremely aggressive. Last month the median price increased by nearly 2% in the region, and the average price per sq ft increased by 2.5%. Overall most value stats are up a good 8-10% since last year, though remember it’s not the same market as it was in 2005 when we’d say, “My house went up by $10,000 last month.” It’s still important to price correctly unless you want to sit instead of sell.

Sacramento County:

  1. It took an average of 27 days to sell a home last month, which is 4 days less than the previous month.
  2. The sales to list price ratio was 100% last month.
  3. It took 8 less days to sell this May compared to last May.
  4. Sales volume was up nearly 4% in May 2016 from May 2015.
  5. There is only 1.35 months of housing supply in Sacramento County.
  6. Housing inventory is 22% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased by 3% last month.
  8. The median price is 9.6% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft increased by 1.8% last month.
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 9.9% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

Median price since 2013 in sacramento county

monthly inventory is sacramento county since 2001 - by sacramento appraisal blog

inventory - May 2016 - by home appraiser blog

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Regional Appraisal Blog

price metrics since 2015 in sacramento county - look at all

market in sacramento - sacramento appraisal group

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. It took 6 less days to sell last month compared to the previous month.
  2. It took 8 less days to sell this May compared to last May.
  3. The sales to list price ratio was 99% in the region last month.
  4. Short sales and REOs were both 3% of sales last month.
  5. There is 1.6 months of housing supply in the region right now.
  6. Housing inventory is 15.6% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  7. The median price increased 1.7% last month from the previous month.
  8. The median price is 6.8% higher than the same time last year.
  9. The avg price per sq ft increased 2.5% last month.
  10. The avg price per sq ft is 8.4% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

median price sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

sacramento region volume - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

sales volume 2015 vs 2016 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

Regional Inventory - by Sacramento regional appraisal blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

median price and inventory in sacramento regional market

Regional market median price - by home appraiser blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. It took 2 less days to sell a house last month than April.
  2. It took 1 less day to sell this May compared to last May.
  3. Sales volume was up 3% in May 2016 compared to last May.
  4. FHA sales were 16% of all sales last month.
  5. Cash sales were 17% of all sales last month.
  6. There is 1.84 months of housing supply in Placer County right now.
  7. Housing inventory is 12.4% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  8. The median price is about the same as it was the previous month.
  9. The median price is up 7% from May 2015.
  10. Short sales were 2.1% and REOs were 1.7% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

number of listings in PLACER county - 2016

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County housing inventory - by home appraiser blog

I hope this was helpful and interesting.

My Latest Woodworking: By the way, I know this post has been ridiculously long already (on purpose since it’s my big monthly market update), but here are some of my recent woodworking projects. If you didn’t know, I like to tinker and create.

Ryan woodworking 2

Ryan woodworking 1

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Question: Any other market insight you’d like to add? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: bank-owned sales, days on market, housing inventory, low housing supply, Placer County real estate, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, Sacramento County real estate trends, sacramento regional appraisal blog, sacramento regional market trends, Short Sale, values going up, values increasing

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