The housing market is warm. Not blazing hot.

The housing market is heating up, but it’s not blazing hot. The temperature so far in January feels warmer than anything. In other words, we’re seeing some spring vibes, but it hasn’t been completely insane. Let’s unpack that today. Scroll quickly by topic or digest slowly. Any thoughts?

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

1/31/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
2/6/25 She Invests event (TBA)
2/11/25 MLS Meeting TBA
2/12/25 Coldwell Banker EDH (private I think)
2/18/25 Travis Credit Union TBA
2/19/25 NARPM (private)
3/6/25 Yolo Association YPN Event
3/12/25 Windemere Sierra Oaks
3/20/25 HomeSmart iCare Realty (private I think)
4/10/25 Yuba-Sutter Association (details TBA)
4/15/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
5/8/25 Private event (details TBA)
5/13/25 PCAR
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
9/26/25 PCAR
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

SWEET 16 THANK YOU:

I had an incredible time at my blog party last week. Thank you to the hundreds of people who showed up. I am completely blown away, and I feel very loved.

SELLERS ARE THAWING OUT IN 2025

Check out the blue bar. Spring vibes. The number of new listings in January 2025 already outpaced the number from last January. In short, it’s good to see sellers thawing out. Granted, we are still far below normal levels, but more is what we want to see. We still have four days left in January too.

NEW LISTINGS PEAK ON THURSDAY

By the way, here’s a cool visual to help show the pattern of new listings hitting the market. Thursday is almost always the peak, and Sunday is almost always the low.

PENDINGS ARE MODEST SO FAR

Pendings are lagging a bit right now, and that likely stems from rates still hovering above 7% on average. The number of pendings is not painfully dull locally, but we are slightly below January 2024. A few months ago, lots of people talked about a “Trump bump” ahead since buyers were supposedly waiting to jump into the market after election results, but that hasn’t shown up in the stats yet. This is not a political statement either. More than anything, I don’t buy the idea that the market as a whole will improve with volume unless we see policy change or lower rates. Buyers and sellers need the math to work, which is the most important thing. Ultimately, the month isn’t over yet, but so far, the vibe has been sellers have grown more than buyers in 2025 (which is what 2024 felt like). Check out the green line (2025) from Redfin’s weekly data.

SLIGHTLY MORE MULTIPLE OFFERS

I’ve been watching the percentage of multiple offers for weeks, and we’ve been seeing a small temperature change. Granted, this is barely beyond recent sales, but it is slightly more heat (hence the market being warm instead of blazing hot).

BRO, SOME PROPERTIES ARE GETTING 15 OFFERS

It’s true. Over the past week, there were four properties that had fifteen or more offers. That’s wild competition, right? But we have to step back and recognize these are unicorns in today’s market. Four out of five units were priced under $399K too. Keep in mind just over half of pendings had only one offer, and 84.5% had three of fewer. My advice? If you have a solid offer, consider accepting instead of holding out for something higher (it’s not 2021). Another way to think about this stat is getting 15 offers was about 1% of the entire market this week.

SEEING A SPRING UPTICK IN THE STATS

Preliminary stats are showing spring seasonality. The black numbers below represent the percentage of multiple offers among closed sales for the month of December, and it was on the lower side. The dotted line though is based on January sales so far as well as current pendings, and we’re seeing an uptick (expected for the time of year). Nothing dramatic. If this was 2021, the number would be more like 70% instead of under 45%.

THE WORD ON THE STREET

We don’t have many stats for the spring market yet since it takes a bit for the trend to show up in closed sales, but we do have word on the street, and the stories of today turn into the stats of tomorrow. This is why it’s so valuable to ask people what they are experiencing in the trenches of the market. However, we have to take what people say with a grain of salt too because they might be judging the trend based on their book of business (or what they hope is going to happen) Are you seeing the trees in front of you, or are you describing the entire forest? That’s the question.

Here’s a poll I did on Instagram two days ago, and only a few people said the market was “super hot,” which I think is telling. Overall, “warm” or “mildly hot” is the operative word right now. What I really like about IG polls is I get to see who voted for which category, so it’s like I’m having a massive number of quick conversations with mostly people I know. This isn’t a scientific poll, but I think there is real value here.

And here’s a poll I did on X. Honestly, I’m giving less weight to this one for two reasons. One, X tends to be a pretty negative place (have you noticed? haha). And two, people from all over the country could have voted. The truth is the housing market is very dull in some portions of the country. In other words, the Northeast and West feel different than portions of Texas and Florida. Let’s remember, there is no such thing as a national housing market just as there is no such thing as a national weather temperature. Still though, we’re not in a market where “super hot” was the description.

CLOSING THOUGHTS:

We only have just about one month under our belt so far, and it’s not enough to judge what the entire year is going to be like. The spring market traditionally really starts to heat up in mid-February in a normal year, so let’s see what the market feels like in a few weeks. Of course, what happens with rates will be a huge factor ahead.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing right now in the spring market? Hot? Cold? Warm?

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