Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Market trends and real estate appraisals for divorce, estate settlement, loans, property tax appeal, pre-listing and more. We cover Sacramento, Placer and Yolo County. We're professional, courteous and timely.

Spring market

How are appraisers handling concessions?

By 27 Comments

How are appraisers handling concessions to the buyer? Could a seller credit damage the chance of appraising at the purchase contract? These questions weren’t asked a year ago, but welcome to the 2023 housing market.

A 3-D sketch of homes. All houses are gray besides one blue house. The font on the image is the same blue that reads, "How are appraisers handling concessions?"

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
1/18/23 WCR Market Update in Cameron Park (register here)
1/19/23 Big market update at SAR on Zoom (register here)
1/20/23 NARPM Luncheon
1/23/23 Residential RoundUP on Zoom (register here (free))
1/26/23 How to Crush Lead Gen (for real estate) (register here)
1/27/23 Q&A Appraiser Marketing (free for appraisers only) (sign up here)
2/8/23 SAFE Credit Union “Snacks & Facts” (for RE) (register here)
3/10/23 PCAR Market Update Lunch & Learn (detailed TBD)
3/28/23 Downtown Regional MLS meeting
4/1/23 NAA Conference in Sacramento

GOOD NEWS FOR BUYERS

Buyers are getting more from sellers lately. Last month 51.5% of all sales in Sacramento County had some form of a concession. Sellers are tending to give things like credits for closing costs, credits for repairs, rate buydowns, etc… Sellers, be ready to negotiate with buyers and offer more if needed. And buyers, get all the market will give you.

A line graph to show the percentage of properties with concessions in Sacramento County. There was a dip during the pandemic, and we've seen more concessions lately as the market temperature has changed.

HOW DO APPRAISERS VIEW CONCESSIONS?

Question: When a buyer comes in over list price and asks for a concession from the seller, how is that viewed from an appraiser’s mindset?

Answer:

1) No effect on value: The appraiser needs to look to the comps to establish value. Bottom line. The seller can give 3% or more if the lender allows, but this shouldn’t have any bearing on the appraised value theoretically because the proof of value is found in the comps – not the terms of the contract. In other words, if the comps suggest a value at $500,000, it doesn’t matter if the subject is in contract at $500,000 with the seller giving 3% back for closing costs. However, if the only comps at $500,000 are ones with fat credits, and comps without any concessions are coming in closer to $485,000, then that tells us the comps with concessions are maybe closing high due to the concessions. This is where an appraiser might adjust the comps down in the appraisal report if it looks like the market isn’t willing to pay $500,000 without the extra sweetener to get the deal done. And this is where agents establishing a list price really want to pay close attention to what’s happening with concessions in the comps. Don’t just look at the final sales price.

2) Inflated contract price: All that said, when a property has been on the market for a long time, and it gets into contract at a higher level with a huge credit, it’s only human to wonder whether it’s really worth that amount. It sounds a bit suspect, right? In other words, would buyers really pay the contract price if the seller wasn’t giving a fat concession? This is a viable question, and the appraiser is going to record the full listing history of the subject property and scrutinize the terms of the contract in the appraisal report. This means the underwriter is going to see everything too. But still, the most weight needs to be given to the comps, so even if the contract price initially looks iffy based on the listing history alone, appraisers have to be careful to be objective about looking to the comps for value rather than the listing history alone. There is no ignoring the listing history though because it might be a clue about value. But then again, maybe there was a problem tenant who wouldn’t allow access, a lack of open houses, or some other reason why the property was on the market for longer than expected.

A meme with an actor leaning down toward a grave and flashing a peace sign (this is the actor from the show, The Flash). The headstone says "seller's market" and it says "buyers" by the actor.

3) But the seller wants a higher price: A strategy I see sometimes today is to raise the price and give the buyer a credit back for the amount the price was raised. The idea is to help the seller net more and keep the buyer happy with a credit. Look, it’s fine if the market allows the seller to do this, but sometimes properties are countered beyond what is able to be supported by the appraiser. Remember, the appraiser is looking at all the details of the comps – not just the closed price. Sometimes I hear people say, “Bro, the property closed at $500,000, so it’s a good comp.” Okay, but if this unit also had a 3% credit for closing costs, the appraiser has to consider if that credit inflated the price too. My advice? Be aware of countering too high beyond what the comps suggest is reasonable, and remember the appraiser’s job is NOT to ratify the contract price.

THE MARKET IS HEATING UP FOR THE SPRING:

By the way, the market is beginning to heat up for the spring. I’ve been talking about expecting this. Even during a declining trend, we historically see more attention on the market in the spring season. I’m hearing of more showings, some competition, and phones are ringing. Granted, it’s still crickets for lots of listings, so it would be a big mistake to say today has early 2022 aggressive vibes. The tough part about January is buyers are hungry for fresh listings, but they are slow to come to the market. More on that soon.

Thanks for being here.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Questions: What sort of concessions are you seeing offered right now? Anything else to add? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Rates are low, but buyers aren’t going nuts

By 21 Comments

Rates and inventory are really low, so on paper it seems like the market should be booming. But it’s not. The truth is sales numbers are down despite rates doing the limbo below four percent again. It’s like the market looks hot on paper, but it’s also a bit lackluster in some ways.

Affordability: A big issue today is buyers are struggling with affordability. After seven years of price increases, we’re seeing the market become too expensive for many prospective buyers since wage growth has not kept pace with price growth. Some buyers feel uncertain about the future also, which is causing hesitancy about whether to purchase.

Hot couple analogy: The market is like a super hot couple that looks great on paper. They’re rich, attractive, successful, and they get a ton of “likes” on Instagram. Everything looks perfect, but then out of nowhere they break up because it turns out their relationship wasn’t as good as everyone thought. In a similar way, the real estate market looks stellar on paper. Rates are low, inventory is sparse, and it’s actually really competitive out there. But we’re also seeing weaker sales volume which shows us buyers aren’t as enthusiastic as we’d assume them to be.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Now for those interested, let’s talk about Sacramento trends. If I had to pick a few phrases to describe the market it would be competitive if priced right, modest price growth, slumping volume, and fairly normal stats for the spring.

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

  • Prices are up, volume is down
  • It kinda feels normal right now
  • Price growth has been modest
  • 46% of sales had multiple offers last month
  • Sales volume is down for the 14th month in a row
  • Low rates have helped change the feel of the market this year
  • Inventory is thin, but slightly higher than last year
  • The post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal: The market felt really dull last year, but it’s been a somewhat normal year so far in 2019. There are certainly concerns about affordability, but from a stats perspective it’s been a pretty standard first half of the year. Pendings continue to be strong also, so buyers still clearly have a strong appetite for the market.

14 months in a row of slumping volume: Despite mortgage rates being low we’re seeing somewhat sluggish sales volume. In fact, sales volume was down 11.6% in the region last month and it’s down 8.6% so far in 2019. Moreover, we’ve had fourteen months in a row with lower sales volume compared to the previous year. In my mind it’s still best to say we’re having a slower year instead of a volume meltdown because levels aren’t alarmingly low by any stretch. Let’s watch this carefully.

Dude, rates will never get below 4% again: It’s been a little surprising to see how low rates have gone again, right? The narrative for a while was, “Dude, they’ll never go below 4% again. We’ve bottomed out.” Yet here we are. My sense is if rates keep going down it’ll only increase competition and artificially inflate prices. That would be temporarily nice for buyers, but an unfortunate byproduct is low rates in a wider picture tend to create less incentive for sellers to move. Why sell if you’re sitting on a 3.5% mortgage rate?

Purplebricks & the tech invasion: Last week it was announced that Purplebricks will be exiting the United States housing market after a 75% loss in shares. This company is going to the grave in the U.S., but the reality is we’re still in a market where tech companies are trying to disrupt the traditional real estate model. Next up? Zillow is said to be coming to Sacramento by the end of the year.

Joe Montana’s $49M overpriced listing: Former Quarterback Joe Montana listed his property for $49M and it didn’t sell because it was profoundly overpriced. In fact, the price has now been reduced to $28M. Many sellers are like Joe in trying to attract mythical unicorn buyers who will mysteriously overpay for some reason. My advice? Be aware that today’s buyers are incredibly picky about paying the right price.

The dream of selling at the top: I met a guy who wants to sell because he says the market might top out soon. His concern is a friend sold two years ago thinking the market was at its peak, but it wasn’t. The truth is it’s not so easy to time a market perfectly. We talk about how simple it is to do this, but most people pull it off from dumb luck more than anything. The reality is the bulk of buyers don’t buy based on price metrics, but rather lifestyle and affordability.

This is a fascinating chart, right? It shows a few price cycles over the past twenty years in Sacramento County. I don’t share this to say prices are about to change directions, but at some point that’s probably what we ought to expect because that’s what markets do. They go up and down. For now price momentum has been slowing and we’ll continue to watch this closely to see how it plays out. Let’s remember the collapse we saw in 2005 was not a normal trend that’s now the formula for the next price cycle. That was a market built on fraud and rampant speculation.

The coming recession: There are lots of predictions about a coming recession, and at some point one will happen. But predicting recession specifics is a bit like predicting housing market specifics. At the end of the day we might have ideas, but we don’t know the future if we’re honest. Moreover, the last “great” recession isn’t now the template or formula for all future recessions.

Eyeballs vs offers: Over two years ago I wrote about a $250M listing in Bel-Air. At the time it was the highest-priced property in the United States, and it was called “record breaking”. But today it’s still on the market and priced at $150M. Despite going viral and having global attention this listing did not sell. This reminds us it’s nice to have eyeballs on a listing, but the only thing that matters is offers. Sellers, if you aren’t getting offers, it may be time to adjust your pricing until the market bites.

Preparing for a slower season: At this time of year we typically see the market begin to slow down. The sales stats don’t show it yet, but when July stats come out we usually see it starts to take slightly longer to sell in July compared to June. This is a clue into a slowing market, and eventually we see more slowness in actual prices (but it often takes a few months to see the slow trend show up in actual sales stats). This is a good reminder to pay close attention to pendings today because that’s where we see what the current market is doing. What is similar and actually getting into contract? That is THE question.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market has moved forward this year, but it’s been at a slower pace. In other words, the market has felt competitive this year, but price momentum has continued to slow. Remember, “slower” and “slow” are not dirty words in real estate. They are market realities.

2) A QUICK RECAP: All year prices have shown a modest uptick. What I mean is prices are up from last year, but not by much. Keep in mind the lowest prices are likely the “hottest” market in town too.

3) VOLUME SLUMP: The number of sales has slumped in the region for 14 months (and 13 months in Sacramento County). Overall volume is noticeably lower this year, but it’s still not outside of normal low ranges though either (see 2014 and 2015).

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

  • June volume down 11.6%
  • Volume is down 9.9% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

  • June volume down 13.4%
  • Volume is down 9.3% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

  • June volume is down 10%
  • Volume is down 9.2% over the past 12 months

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

  • June volume down 6.3%
  • Volume is down 12.4% over the past 12 months

4) PRICES TICKED UP IN JUNE: The market generally showed price increases last month, though they were pretty subtle.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Six temptations to avoid when the market slows down

By 6 Comments

At this time of year the weather begins to change, the kids are finally back in school, AND pumpkin spice lattes come back on the menu at Starbucks. Oh, and it’s normal for the real estate market to slow down.

sacramento real estate market- image purchased from 123rf and used with permission by sacramento appraisal blog

The Truth: Real estate is usually very seasonal, meaning the market heats up in the spring and begins to slow down later in the year. This is normal, and we know this intellectually, yet it’s still easy to freak out when properties start taking longer to sell or demand changes. This is why I hope this post will be relevant.

NOTE: There is a difference between a market being slow and showing signs of a seasonal slowing. 

Six temptations to avoid when the market slows down

  1. Freaking out: Just as we expect the weather to change during the fall, let’s expect real estate to change too. The public likes hearing positive news (“values are increasing”), so reporting a market slowing seems negative or anti-climatic, but it’s actually normal almost every single year (see this post and look at the fall graphs compared to the spring). On the positive side, a slower seasonal market might provide space for a vacation, relaxation, and most significantly an opportunity for the real estate community to communicate seasonal dynamics to clients. Of course when a market slows it’s not always easy to be self-employed since paychecks also slow. Yet when we start realizing the market slows during the end of the year, it helps us adjust our expectations and make plans for life and business. There has to be more to the last quarter of the year than being stressed until the market picks up again in the spring.  🙂
  2. Projecting the aggressive spring on summer: It’s easy to look back in time to a more aggressive market and want to price according to sales from the hot spring. But when the market has changed, be careful to look at values for what they are right now instead of projecting hotter seasonal trends of the recent past onto a fading summer or cool fall. This is just the same as not dressing for summer if it is winter (I do wear flip flops year round though). We have to do what makes sense for the current time.
  3. Putting too much weight on sales: Sales tell us what the market used to be like when the sales went into contract several months ago, but listings and pendings tell us what the current market is like right now. When values begin to soften during the fall, this makes it all the more important to look at listings / pendings instead of only sales. If the listings are priced at a similar level to recent sales, but not selling, this tells us the market has changed, and we might need to adjust our expectations (and prices). The same is true with the stock market. We wouldn’t use stock prices from three months ago as our gauge for today’s prices, but instead look at what stocks are actually selling for right now.
  4. Targeting that one magical buyer: We all want to attract the highest price ever, so it’s easy to hold out for that one cash buyer from outside the market who is going to pay more than anyone has ever paid. Yet we have to consider what the rest of the local market is willing to pay (this is what the appraiser is going to be considering too). If you lined up 100 buyers who are interested in the neighborhood, what is the most probable price most buyers would be willing to pay? That’s a good picture of what market value looks like.
  5. Refusing to reduce the list price: It can sting to reduce the list price, but if the price isn’t right, it’s time to change that, right? If you had something for sale on Craigslist and it wasn’t selling, would you keep the price the same? No, you’d change it if you really wanted to sell. How do you know if the price is wrong? If there aren’t any offers, you’re not “in the market”, but only “on the market” (Jay Papasan). An honest question: If the market is telling you to reduce the price, but you aren’t willing to do so, do you really want to sell?
  6. Not listening to your real estate agent: If you are an owner and your real estate agent keeps encouraging you to do something to the property or change the list price, but you’re not listening, ask yourself why you are not listening.

I hope this was helpful.

Social Media Podcast: By the way, a few weeks back I did a podcast with The Appraiser Coach on using social media. Here it is in case you want to give it a listen in the background. It’s geared toward appraisers, but there are probably relevant nuggets in there for anyone in the real estate community. Listen here or below.

Questions: What’s temptation #7? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The real estate market that ripened early in Sacramento

By 8 Comments

The market ripened early this year. Buyers have simply been ready before sellers. On one hand listings and sales have been at fairly normal levels for the first two months of the year, so we can say the market is normal in that regard. But buyer demand really took off last month as pendings in the regional market were up by almost 30% compared to last February. This is the part that is not normal, and why we can say the Spring market ripened early.

Hungry buyers - image purchased and used with permission by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

One Paragraph to Explain the Market: Well-priced listings are going quickly and experiencing multiple offers, but otherwise properties are sitting on the market if they are not priced correctly. Buyers have been anxious to get into contract, but at the same time they seem to be showing discretion by not readily pulling the trigger on homes with adverse locations or issues. This has led to a sense of many current listings feeling like leftovers since they’ve been well vetted like thrift store clothing. The good news is we are reaching the time of year where more listings should be hitting the market to help alleviate the pressure of a lack of good inventory. Lastly, it took a few less days to sell last month, inventory decreased, and the sales to original list price ratio increased (all normal in Spring).

NOTE: I am posting once a week now, and this means my big monthly post will have less text, but a few more graphs (Placer, Sacramento County, & Regional Market).

Two ways to read this post:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here

DOWNLOAD 45+ graphs HERE for free (zip file): Please download these 45+ graphs here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or even some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

median price and inventory since 2013 - by sacramento appraisal blog price metrics since 2014 in sacramento countymonths of housing inventory by sacramento appraisal blogCDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blogsales volume in Sacramento Countyfebruary sales in sacramento county

PLACER COUNTY:

Placer County median price and inventory - by home appraiser blog

number of listings in PLACER county -February 2015 - by home appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

SACRAMENTO REGION (Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado):

median price and inventory in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blogmonths of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blogRegional market median price - by home appraiser blognumber of listings in Placer Sacramento Yolo El Dorado county - by home appraiser bloginterest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog

Questions: What is driving buyers to get into contract? Is it low rates? Is it a sense of needing to get in a home before values rise too quickly? What do you think?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Skip to content