Good housing news & expecting slower vibes

We just had a stronger month of buyer demand. Say what? Let’s talk about what happened in September. Today, I have five things I’m watching in the housing market as well as stats for ten local counties. I’m talking about Sacramento here, but I suspect much of what I’m saying is going to relate to many portions of the country. By the way, I just got back from a silver anniversary trip with my wife. See pics here. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/13/26 Joel & Mike Event (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)

FIVE THINGS ON MY MIND

1) IT’S GOOD NEWS TO SEE MORE BUYERS 

It was a stronger month of September for closed sales. In fact, this September outpaced the past two years. I realize this isn’t a huge historical flex because it’s still one of the lowest years we’ve seen, but any improvement feels like it deserves some celebration – at least a golf clap. Seriously, we have to rejoice in the small things, which is true for both life and work. This uptick reflects more pending contracts from previous months when rates went down. This shows the market can budge a little when rates improve. Yet, I’m not calling this a trend from here on out. Right now it’s just one month of goodness. The truth is we still have lots of economic uncertainty with an ongoing government shutdown. Ultimately, we’re not going to see a bigger change with volume until we see a sharper improvement to affordability. 

2) SOME PRICE STATS ARE GOING TO BE CONFUSING

It’s really easy to misinterpret the stats if we’re not careful. I talked about this yesterday in a presentation, and I wanted to share some outstanding commentary afterward from a Realtor on her Instagram story (thanks Kat). Do you see how price metrics are up 5-10%? The temptation could be to say the market is up by that much, but check out what is happening with size. Sales are 10% larger in size this year (larger homes tend to sell for higher prices). So, it’s not that we’ve seen all this price growth. It’s really about larger homes boosting the stats. My advice? Think critically about why prices are the way they are, and be careful about price data in smaller counties and cities because it can bounce around so much. 

3) SELLERS HAVE PUMPED THE BRAKES LATELY

One of the bigger themes lately is sellers have stepped back from the market. For five months in a row, we’ve seen a change in seller behavior, and the last two months were actually lower than the previous year (see blue bars). Sellers have been clearly thawing out since the low of 2023, but here they are pulling back now. Economic uncertainty isn’t helping boost seller confidence, and the current shutdown likely isn’t poised to help either. 

Someone told me I was cringe for sharing the distracted boyfriend meme because it’s so old, and that only fuels me to use it more. Haha. Look, if I wanted to be truly cringe, I would talk about “6-7” (sorry).

4) THE QUESTION EVERY SELLER NEEDS TO ASK

How do you NOT become a stat on this chart? I think that’s the question every seller needs to ask when listing a home. In other words, what does it take to become a sale instead of a cancellation? There are about 1,200 more listings this year in the region that didn’t make it to the finish line (that’s a 39% increase). These properties were pulled off the market after not selling, and this is a growing trend. Read more about cancellations here.

5) SLOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR THE REST OF 2025

As the year starts to come to an end, let’s be in touch with what the housing market normally looks like. Of course, it’s always possible for a market to behave slightly differently than the seasonal norm, but I always plan to see a traditional seasonal market play out unless something really unexpected occurs. So, I’m expecting slower vibes ahead.

BUYERS:

We’re poised to see buyer demand shrink for the rest of the year. Well, demand typically has more of a plateau through October before dipping more notably when the holidays ensue. Demand really drops after Thanksgiving as December is the annual bottom. Technically, that makes it the best time of year to buy since competition is low, but there also isn’t much on the market either. Lastly, I find smaller homes tend to sell more often during the end of the year before larger and more expensive stuff lists in the spring. So, in a sense, the end of the year feels like leftovers, but it also feels like a market where first-time buyers can make it happen. 

SELLERS: 

We’re at that time of year where sellers pump the brakes for the season, and this year we’ve seen a heavier foot as sellers have pulled back even more. There is still opportunity for sellers to list before the year is over, but many start to plan on the spring instead. If you didn’t know, price reductions tend to peak in November, which tells us there is still room for sellers to get priced right before the year ends. My advice? Keep an eye out for the sellers who do list in later November and December because those sellers are likely very serious about selling. What I personally like about rainy months is you get to see if the roof and yard drainage are working. 

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BIG MARKET UPDATE FOR THOSE INTERESTED

And now for those interested, here is a deep dive into ten local markets. The housing market is soft, but not as soft as it was a few months ago. The issue is sellers have stepped back from the market a bit, and we’ve seen slightly more buyer demand, so the market has tightened up a bit lately. This doesn’t mean it’s ultra-competitive though because that’s not really the vibe. It’s taking about two weeks longer to sell this year compared to last year, which reminds us we’re not in a sizzling hot market. We’re seeing more obvious year-over-year price declines in the stats now too. Keep in mind we’re seeing more concessions though too, and that helps boost prices on some level. This is important to consider as we look at the numbers. Keep an eye on my socials this week to talk more about the market. 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

Enjoy. And please take smaller counties with a grain of salt. Be sure to look at any changes in the square footage too because sometimes that can make a big difference in the numbers. In general, we’ve seen a bit more strength at the top of the price market, and that’s affecting the stats. 

MONTH-TO-MONTH

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Questions: What are you seeing in the market right now? What stands out to you most above? I’d love to hear your take.

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