AI in real estate & more buyers at the bottom

Zillow can’t smell if 20 cats live there. I’ve said that for years, but here we are in a new era where so many consumers are using AI to understand value. So, it’s time to amend the statement. AI can’t smell if cats live there. I think we’re at an interesting place with AI and consumers, so I wanted to share some brief thoughts. And then I want to talk about a growing portion of the market – lower prices.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

It seemed fitting to have an AI image today (made with Grok).

BUT AI SAYS MY HOUSE IS WORTH…

I’m starting to get more conversations with clients and consumers based on what AI says. It seems like, “But AI says…” is the new “But Zillow says…” What I find to be unique about AI though is the conversations are going beyond just the home value. With AI, for me, it’s been more about what one particular item might contribute to the value or the return-on-investment for various improvements. I’ve had a client share the value of an ADU based on what ChatGPT says, and I had a recent client provide an itemized list of what they spent on improvements over the past four years and what AI says each improvement contributes to value. 

TWO EXAMPLES OF QUESTIONS I ASKED AI: 

I’m not saying these examples are accurate (be super careful with stuff like this). I am saying consumers are at the other end of the phone or desktop and asking questions. So, this is where real estate professionals have to be prepared for conversations.  

I asked Grok about an HVAC: 

I asked ChatGPT about the value of an ADU: 

SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT AI

1. Be ready for more real estate conversations. AI feels like it’s going to help real estate conversations get deeper, and I’m here for it. 
2. Don’t forget to fact check what AI says. Dig into some of the cited data sources. If we only read headlines and AI summaries, that can be dangerous. 
3. AI is going to be valuable for business and valuing properties. I’ve only scraped the surface, but I’m blown away at what some colleagues are doing. 
4. AI can make life efficient, but it can’t live for us, so we have to remember to build relationships with other humans. Look, I love technology, and we’re clearly advancing in some ways, but it seems like society is getting lonelier despite technology, and that’s a huge concern.   
5. As a side note, I’ve noticed people use AI on me in two ways. Sometimes my profile pic is being sent through AI for speaking engagement flyers. It’s a little weird to be honest. I’d rather be shown “as is.” Last year somebody even put my profile pic in a suit instead of the blue shirt. Haha. The second thing I’ve noticed is a few people send my charts through AI and then strip out credit to me. This is a rarity, but it’s not cool. The wild part though is AI sometimes botches the columns and stats. Yikes.

Maybe AI me is hotter though. Onlookers might not see any difference, but my family thinks I look weird (AI version) because they know me best.

Now let’s look at a growing part of the market…

MORE STRENGTH AT LOWER PRICES IN 2026

Do you know where we’ve seen the most growth in closed sales volume this year? It’s at the lower end of the price market – particularly between $400,000 to $500,000. This isn’t true in every single local county, but it’s true in the region as a whole and many counties. My thesis is prices have dipped a little from last year, and that’s caused more properties to sell within lower price points. 

Scroll down for twelve counties of stats like this.

ARE THERE MORE FIRST-TIME BUYERS?

It’s possible we have more first-time buyers, but I can’t really say for sure. There isn’t a perfect way to uncover this with MLS stats. I will say it’s a positive trend to see more sales at lower prices though since that’s a range where first-time buyers are playing the game. By the way, here’s financing and cash since 2009 (FHA alone is not a good metric to gauge first-time buyers).

A VIRAL NARRATIVE ABOUT FIRST-TIME BUYERS

The National Association of Realtors came out with some new stats this week to show first-time buyers are at record low levels, but there are some questions about the study. Look, it’s possible NAR is correct. I’m just not confident about their stats. I am not anti-NAR here either, so save your hate mail. These stats are from a national survey that got 6,103 responses across the country. This is the same 120-question survey mailer that was used to say first-time buyers are now forty years old (other sources don’t show that same age). I’m not aware of another data source that can confirm or contest this survey, but I’m open to suggestions if anyone has a preferred source. 

TAKE A LOOK AT THE METHODOLOGY

Here is the methodology for this study. You can click here to see directly that this was the methodology for the screenshot above. I like other NAR stats, but I’m not willing to share their narrative from the survey. It’ll go viral everywhere, but I’m going to hold back on this one. 

WE DO HAVE AN AGING POPULATION

All that said, we have an aging population nationally with a birth rate that is slowing, so it wouldn’t be surprising to me in decades to come to see more transactions at older ages. There is so much talk about a Silver Tsunami as Boomers grow in age. Just remember that not every Boomer is going to die and list their home in one moment. Here’s a visual from my ResiClub Pro Membership to show the share of population that is 55 and older. Interesting, right? 

TWELVE COUNTIES OF DATA (FLEXING AT LOWER PRICES)

Check out twelve counties of stats to see what I mean about more strength between $400K to $500K. Take smaller counties with a grain of salt since three months of data isn’t much to work with, and recognize that some counties have had a struggle with volume this year (San Joaquin in particular). If you work in real estate, keep asking yourself which price points are growing and contracting. And if $400K to $500K keeps growing, connect with investors who may want to sell also. 

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here. 

Questions: How are you seeing AI show up in real estate conversations? What are you noticing happening at lower prices right now? 

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