We have a problem with comps in real estate. There just aren’t that many, and it’s made it much more challenging to figure out value. Yet, this could get a little better in 2026. Let’s talk about it.
LAST MARKET UPDATE IN 2025 IS NEXT WEEK:
I’m doing my last market update of the year. This is a free and catered Realtor lunch & learn thanks to SAFE Credit Union. There is SO much to talk about. I want everyone to leave energized for 2026. Please RSVP here.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (RSVP here)
1/13/26 Residential RoundUp via Zoom (register here)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
1/20/26 Carlile Group (private event)
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)
2/20/26 PCAR
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR
WE’VE HAD A COMP PROBLEM FOR THREE YEARS:
We’ve been missing about 30% of the normal number of sales. This is true both locally and nationally. This chart from Calculated Risk shows the gravity of the situation as we’ve been flirting with historically low volume for three years now. And what this means is we’ve had 30% less comps to choose from. Yikes!! This is exactly why it’s been challenging to value properties. Here’s a post with comp tips in the midst of limited sales.
THE GOOD NEWS
It seems like many housing data sources are projecting stronger volume next year in light of the perception of lower mortgage rates ahead. In fact, NAR is predicting a 14% increase in the number of sales. My projection locally is we’re going to get more volume, though 14% seems optimistic (I hope I’m wrong). Ultimately, the positive here is there are likely going to be more comps to choose from in 2026.
THE BAD NEWS
We’re still poised to have historically low volume until there is a sharper change with affordability. The housing market simply feels stuck, and there isn’t a mechanism to quickly increase the number of buyers. In other words, it’s not going to be a market with robust volume for a long time since it’s going to take years to get buyers and sellers back. Yet, if the projection is correct about next year, it’s going to be something positive to get even a little more volume back. This isn’t standing ovation news, but maybe a golf clap is in order. And for my real estate friends, this is a solid reminder to stay focused.
SOMEONE WAS MAD AT ME FOR USING OLD COMPS
I had someone angry with me recently that I used much older sales as comps in a private appraisal. I tried to explain my rationale, but the person wasn’t willing to listen. Here’s the deal though. If there aren’t any recent comps, then we have two choices. Use older sales and adjust for how the market has changed, or go out further into other markets for more recent sales (doable, but not always ideal). In real estate textbooks, this issue doesn’t come up since there are always three model match sales over the past 90 days, but the real world is different. The truth is valuations today look a bit messy since we don’t have the luxury of ample recent sales. We simply have to do the best with what we have. Remember, when the market changes, how we do things sometimes has to change also.
OLDER COMPS AREN’T ALWAYS BAD COMPS
When looking at price movement, it’s not always bad to use older sales anyway since prices have been pretty flat for a few years now. There are times when I use a sale that needs a downward adjustment since the market has softened a bit, but other times I might select a sale from a couple years ago that doesn’t need any adjustment since the market is basically willing to pay the same price right now. I’m going to talk about this more soon, especially since there are some people who purchased four years ago with very minimal equity (or sometimes none).
Thanks for being here. I hope this was helpful.
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Questions: What are you doing for comps these days? Do you prefer to use older sales or go further out into other neighborhoods?
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Great post. I love older sales because I think it’s usually easier to adjust with quantifiable data for market change than to adjust for characteristics. I usually tell people there are three choices when comps are limited. One go to further markets, another to go back in time further, and the final one is to use comparable sales that are less similar than we would like.
I’m so glad you mentioned the third choice too. And we just need to understand what the historic difference is between the dissimilar properties. I’m actually dealing with this right now with a condo appraisal on my desk. This one condo model hasn’t sold in years unfortunately, so I really only have recent sales that are larger in size as well as a nearby McKeon condo subdivision that sells for less. In this case, I’m not going to use a 2019 model match sale. I think the best bet is to be sure to study historical differences between the subject model and these other properties. This is what we have to work with. Going out further away is not much of an option either since other condo complexes are at such a different price point.
From an appraisal standpoint, the easiest adjustment to support is a market change/time adjustment. Everything else is harder. I’m much more willing to use an older sale than something different or in a different market.
Nice to see you mention Calculated Risk, my go to for national real estate analysis. Well worth the subscription, and even his free content is worth your time.
I’d love to see more volume next year but I’m very leery of predicting anything at this point-I’ve seen too many interest rate predictions be wrong in recent years.
Thanks Joe. Yeah, Bill does a great job. I subscribe to ResiClub too, which is very helpful for national stuff (and local too). I hear you on predictions. There are too many unknowns. Any prediction about volume hinges on rates staying where they are at or going lower. One of the struggles in today’s market is sellers have backed off over the past six months, and that’s not helping boost affordability. So, there are some unique issues at the moment.
Lack of comparable data has been an issue for quite some time on Maui. The adjustments and the adjusted sales price spreads are higher than typical and harder to support. I’m a big fan of the value range. Thanks for writing your blog. It is helpful with good information. Happy Holidays.
Dan, I really appreciate hearing from you. I can’t imagine what it’s like on an island with such limited supply. I think we complain about low supply here, but you have an entirely different level of low. 🙂
Great post, Ryan. I’m with you on the limited sales. One thing I have encountered with the limited sales is obtaining sufficient data to determine time-of-sale adjustments. Ideally, it’s best to use data from similar properties (age, size, bedroom/bath, area, etc.), but since there are limited sales, it’s sometimes necessary to expand the parameters, which can make the results less reliable. I hope we do have increased volume next year so that our data and metrics may be more accurate.
Thank you, Tom. Agreed too. We have to do our best with what we have. I’m optimistic about more volume, and we’ll see if I’m right. I heard a real estate voice talk about a coming “explosion”, and I totally disagree with that though. The market isn’t poised for a huge change in volume.