The housing market is waking up in 2026

It’s only been one month, but there’s already so much to talk about in the 2026 housing market. We’re seeing some mild positive signs with both buyers and sellers, and spring vibes are emerging. Let’s talk about it, and please let me know what you’re seeing, whether you’re local or not.

This post is designed to skim quickly or digest slowly by topic.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

2/11/26 Lodi Association of Realtors event
2/12/26 Answer Home Loans Event at PCAR (register)
2/20/26 PCAR 
2/26/26 NAPRM Luncheon
3/4/26 Nick Sadek Sotheby’s International Realty (private)
3/12/26 Made 4 More 
3/18/26 Derek Sandoval Office (EXP)
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
10/2/26 PCAR 

WELCOME BACK, SELLERS

Sellers stepped back from the market for the second half of 2025, but for two months in a row we’ve seen a little bit of a rebound with more new listings than 2024 levels. This January was only down about 3% from last year, which seems like a win in a market starved for more supply. It’s healthy when sellers participate, AND it’s good for affordability.

BUYER DEMAND WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER

It looks like slightly lower rates and prices are making a little bit of a difference. Buyer demand was just better than last year. Look, these numbers are still really anemic, so don’t get too hyped, but any little change feels like a win in today’s market, right? 

IS THERE A DISCONNECT WITH THE NARRATIVE?

In a sense, it seems like the housing narrative feels hotter than the stats right now. On one hand, it’s exciting to see buyer demand pick up slightly, but then closed sales volume was down 10% this January compared to one year ago, and 66% of properties sold below their original list price in the region. I realize January shows us what happened in December pendings. All I’m saying is there is a sense where the narrative maybe feels hotter than the market. It’s possible the stats in coming months will show a much hotter trend, of course. Right now, I just haven’t really seen a crazy change in the number of pendings, percentage of pendings getting multiple offers, and other metrics I watch. I wonder if part of our perception of temperature change is the market tightening (see below). 

HAVE YOU FELT SURPRISED THOUGH?

I’ve seen a few properties that surprised me in January. I thought, no way could they get into contract at those levels. But then they did. What the? At times, this makes me pause and wonder if the market is more competitive than the stats so far suggest. But this is where we need to be careful about judging the entire forest by just a couple of trees. Yet, it’s also a reminder that we need time to see the trend, and it takes a couple of months for the trend to show up in closed sales. So, let’s keep watching.

THINGS IN 2026 THAT CARRIED OVER FROM 2025

– Buyers are drawn to quality and condition
– Buyers are extremely picky about price, condition, and location
– Everything in an escrow is more challenging right now
– Buyers are still getting in below list in so many cases
– Some sellers are still overpricing
– It’s multiple offers or crickets

IT’S NOT 2021, BUT IT CAN BE REALLY COMPETITIVE
(ESPECIALLY UNDER $500K)

There is a pending with 42 offers per MLS data. That’s insane, right? But only 2% of current pendings have ten or more offers, so let’s keep things in check. I’m not diminishing the reality of sensational examples, but let’s not paint the entire trend with unicorns. Besides, the last thing we want is for sellers to start salivating over getting ten offers. By the way, every single pending in MLS with ten or more offers is priced below $599,000 right now. Moreover, 25 out of 29 are below $500K, and the bulk of these were probably priced low on purpose. Backing up, the average is two offers when looking at all pendings, so it can be competitive for sure. This is especially true for homes that check all the boxes of what buyers are looking for. But just remember that 59% of pendings have only one offer. In short, we’re still in a market where sellers might just get one buyer on the hook (or zero if overpriced). 

THE HOUSING MARKET HAS TIGHTENED LATELY

The temperature has changed lately, and I think that’s what many real estate professionals are noticing. I really understand when agents tell me it feels more competitive because there is something statistically true here. Things got really dull in the summer, but supply and demand have squeezed closer together over the past few months, so the market doesn’t feel as tight. Like I said above, it’s possible some of the hotness people are sensing right now will show up better in closed sales stats ahead. After all, it has to make at least some difference in the market to have less sellers and slightly improved affordability. Yet, I suspect some of the perception about temperature is about not being as dull as it was over the summer. Does that make sense? 

Here’s a cool way to look at the trend with properties selling above and below. The red line is the pre-2020 average, and do you see how the gap has grown tighter in recent months? This is exactly what I’m talking about. The market is no longer as dull as it was for much of last year. Why did things change? Sellers backed off, and that closed the gap between supply and demand. Slightly lower rates and prices are helping too.

So far, January 2026 is starting out slightly softer than the norm. The percentage that closed above was 22.1% and below was 66.0%. It’s going to be interesting to see where the trendline goes in coming months. 

WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE LISTINGS 

Supply is not exploding, but it has grown slightly. There are some doomer narratives about a flood of listings, but that’s not real (in Sacramento at least). Right now, we are still anemic with only 8.8% more active listings compared to one year ago. 

PANIC ABOUT SUPPLY HITTING

I think this spring is feeling a little traditional in that many real estate professionals are in a panic right now waiting for the good stuff to hit. Buyers are ready for quality listings, and they’ll come eventually. The market tends to hit more of a stride in March, but we’ll notice a change after the Super Bowl too. I may write about that next week. By the way, who is going to win the big game on Sunday?

GETTING HOT AFTER HIGH SCHOOL

One of the normal signs of spring I’ve been seeing lately is older listings have started to turn some heads after being ignored. Here’s how I described it this week. Sorry not sorry. Haha. 

IT’S A MIXED BAG

The housing temperature has changed lately, and we’re definitely in the thick of the spring market starting to heat up. But I would also say it’s a mixed bag. When I talk to real estate professionals, there are some listings that are really moving, but others are sitting. Some stuff goes very quickly while other homes will just sit. So, I tend to like the mixed bag metaphor to describe the trend. In other words, the market isn’t just one thing. 

PRACTICAL ADVICE

Rejoice in some flickers of hope we’re seeing with more sellers and slightly stronger buyer demand. Even if it’s small news, it’s important to take it in. But stay grounded and be cautious about getting high on housing hope. 

Let’s keep watching. I’m excited to unpack things ahead. 

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What are you seeing out there in the trenches right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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