appraisers

Can you use brand new sales from the builder as comps?

August 21, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 13 Comments

I get asked this question all the time. “What do you do for comps when a home is only one year old? Can you compare it to brand new homes from the builder?” Here are a few things on my mind.

Builders vs you: It’s important to step back and understand that builders are able to let buyers customize features in a house, and that’s a big deal. This is one of the alluring things about buying a new home, and it’s not something a typical seller is going to do. Thus right away a builder has more power than an owner in the resale market.

Fading premium: Just as buyers tend to pay a price premium for a brand new car, the same thing happens in real estate. And just like a car begins to depreciate when it’s driven off the lot, the same thing happens with a home. When you’ve lived in a home, it’s no longer 100% brand new, so it may not command that same price premium in the market.

The market doesn’t care about your rear landscaping: I often hear, “But my home is better than the brand new ones because I put in rear landscaping. The builder models don’t have a rear yard.” That may be true, but the market might not care about that. The premium a buyer is willing to pay for a brand new house could still likely outweigh your rear landscaping (assuming we’re talking about standard landscaping).

Credits & incentives: Let’s remember builders can offer credits and incentives to close deals and keep prices high. When a market starts to soften especially, we have to ask what concessions are being included to continue to boost prices higher. This is key to understand because if brand new homes have padded prices, they probably aren’t ideal examples of what the market is really willing to pay. Here’s the better question. What would the market pay without all the concessions?

Resale homes rule: In an ideal world we want to find other homes that are one or two years old. Is there any price difference between the new models and resale homes not sold by the builder? That’s the big question and I realize it could be a fat chance we’re going to find something. But don’t be afraid to look through multiple years of sales too. Even if you have an older sale from a few years ago you can compare it to other newer ones at the time. How much of a price difference was there if any? Did the new ones still sell for more? Don’t forget to look to other competitive new developments in town too. You might get some insight there when it comes to brand new vs newer homes.

Keep an eye on the new stuff: I’m not saying to ignore new sales altogether or even to not use them. We should keep an eye on them for sure. Let’s just be cautious about flippantly choosing three brand new sales from the builder and calling it a day without really thinking through whether there is a price difference between brand new vs newer. If I was appraising in this situation I would hope to find at least one resale home somewhere, but I’d also be fine using brand new homes as comps too (but they might need an adjustment down).

The market: Keep in mind there are situations where the market may have gone up, but if the owner also lost some value due to a fading new construction premium, it’s possible the home might not sell for more than it was purchased for.

I hope this was helpful or interesting.

Questions: Which point resonates with you most? What did I miss? Any stories to share?

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A massive garage & paying too much attention to prices

August 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

I saw a massive garage while on vacation that I just have to share. I also have some quick thoughts on focusing too much on prices. Those are the two things on my mind. Then for those interested let’s dive deep into the market.

I took almost two weeks off and part of my vacation was to drive to Boise to visit family. Of course my real estate mind doesn’t shut off when out of town, so I was blown away to see a brand new neighborhood with nearly every other house having a massive RV space in the garage. This one actually has two separate RV spaces. I’ve never seen two spaces like this in my market. Have you?

I’ll admit the neighborhood looked a little odd from the street because of the amount of space dedicated to garage doors. It didn’t look bad per se, but it was definitely different. And for the record, I would use both spaces for a massive woodworking shop. Forget the RVs.

Migration garage marketing plan: This is actually brilliant marketing because the builder is clearly appealing to the retiree crowd. In fact, when talking with a few neighborhood residents, they tell me there are lots of ex-Californians as well as people from Texas and North Carolina. This reminds us of the reality of migration. Who is coming to the market? And who is leaving? Those are two vital questions to ask to know a market.

And a quick thought on prices…

Focusing too much on price? Price is THE obsession in real estate, but focusing too much on price can actually cause us to miss the real story of the market. It’s common to hear stuff like, “Prices are up, so the market is doing great.” I get that, but what if we had a market where there are fewer buyers, but those who are buying are still paying higher prices? This is where fixating too much on prices would cause us to miss what’s really happening. After all, if sales volume is sliding, it could be a sign of buyers stepping away from the market, which is a much bigger issue (that will eventually show up in prices if the trend continues). My advice? Pay attention to prices, but give equal or more focus to what is happening with current listings and sales volume. Are buyers absorbing the listings? What are they saying about the market? How is volume changing? Is the number of sales normal or not right now? These are some of the questions to keep asking.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Now for those interested, let’s talk about Sacramento trends. Prices have been a bit flat, but the bigger story here is the sales volume slump streak of fourteen months has ended. If I had to pick a few phrases to describe the market it would be competitive if priced right, modest price growth, lower volume, and fairly normal stats for the spring / summer so far.

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Prices feel a bit flat
The volume slump streak ended
July looks fairly normal stat-wise
Pendings are strong right now
Sales volume is still down this year
The market is slowing for the season
Mortgage rates are like a steroid
Inventory is sparse (but not in El Dorado County).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

The volume slump streak has ended: We had a fourteen month streak going, but it’s now done. For fourteen months in a row we’ve seen sales volume down compared to the same month last year until this month where sales volume was up about 4% in the region. It was a strong month for most local counties, though El Dorado County was down 15% from last year.

Modest price growth: Price metrics in the region are up about 2-5% or so this year compared to last year depending on which price metric we’re looking at. In short, this is pretty modest price growth overall, which has been the narrative all year (did you hear that sellers?).

Not surprised by slowing: At this time of year we tend to see prices begin to cool and it takes longer to sell. This is exactly what the stats are showing us below too. This comes as a shock to some, but if you follow real estate closely there’s a rhythm to the market, which means we can expect this slowing EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. In short, in a normal seasonal slowing we tend to see most of these things below happening to greater degrees as we inch closer to the holidays. This is a good reminder that low mortgage rates and sparse inventory aren’t a trump card to buck a traditional seasonal slowing. And if you want proof, it took three days longer to sell last month in the region compared to the previous month.

Rent control: The City of Sacramento approved a rent control measure today. This is huge news and it’s absolutely something to watch. I’ll be talking lots about this in coming time as the trend unfolds. I actually ran a Twitter poll the other day about rent control.

Inventory is down overall (mostly): In the region we have less than two months of housing supply. This is actually down from last year. In short, inventory is sparse on one hand, though on the other hand the new normal is low inventory. It’s tempting to say stuff like, “It’s normal to have a 5-month supply of homes for sale,” but that’s simply not true for today. Maybe it used to be the norm, but for now our new normal looks to be somewhere between 2 to 2.5 months of housing supply.

Multiple offers: When I talk about the market slowing it can sound confusing because the market feels really competitive when properties are priced right. In fact, you’ll probably get a few offers if you price it correctly. But if you overprice you can very easily get zero offers (really). Here’s a stat I’ve been tracking each month. As you can see nearly half of all sales had more than one offer last month. But then again, nearly half of sales didn’t too.

Inventory is GROWING in El Dorado County: Inventory has been shrinking in the market, but not in El Dorado County. This is a new graph I made and I hope you like it. I know it’s busy, but can you see recently how inventory has been shrinking everywhere besides El Dorado County? I may unpack this in a deeper blog post at some point, but this is definitely something to watch. Part of it could be due to the struggle of obtaining affordable fire insurance also.

Just kidding about rates never going below 4% again: It’s unreal to hear about mortgage rates at 3.5%. Remember just a couple years ago when everyone and their Mom were saying, “Rates have bottomed out.” Just kidding. They didn’t. On a serious note, low rates can act as a steroid to help get buyers off the fence and play the market. It helps buyers also artificially afford higher prices too, which isn’t the healthiest sounding thing in the world.

Property tax appeal season: If you didn’t know, it’s now property tax appeal season in the region. Most counties allow residents to dispute their property taxes between July and late November or early December (Placer County is mid-September). Here’s how the process works. Not many people honestly pay attention to their property taxes in an up market. It’s just true. But I advise for all property owners to stay in tune to be sure they are paying a fair share and no more.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market continues to show price growth, but the rate of change is slowing. This almost sounds offensive to some because the narrative in real estate is often that the market is always blazing hot. But let’s remember “slow” is not a dirty word in real estate. Moreover, do you know what sellers need more than anything right now? They need to price for the real market today rather than the ultra “hot” market of yesteryear.

2) A QUICK RECAP: All year prices have shown a modest uptick. What I mean is prices are up from last year, but not by much. Keep in mind the lowest price ranges are likely the “hottest” market in town too.

3) VOLUME SLUMP: Up until this past month the number of sales slumped in the region for 14 months in a row (and 13 months in Sacramento County). Sales volume was strong in July though and actually up. This year volume is still down about 9% in the region though. Overall despite a lower year of volume, it’s still not outside of normal low ranges (see 2014 and 2015).

4) PRICES SOFTENED IN JULY: The market generally slowed in July in terms of price growth. This is why I’m saying prices feel a bit flat. This is fairly normal for the time of year, and sometimes we see prices bounce up and down as summer comes to a close. Stay tuned. Let’s keep watching.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

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SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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Appraisers don’t use race when valuing homes

June 22, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 57 Comments

Last week in a congressional hearing on the future of the appraisal profession, some research was used to suggest appraisers are showing racial bias and essentially undervaluing black neighborhoods. I was not expecting the conversation to go that way during the hearing and I’ll admit I’m deeply concerned about the emerging narrative of appraisers being racists.

I know race is a polarizing topic, but I wanted to approach this today with humility to clarify a few things. Please join me in respectful conversation.

THREE THINGS:

1) Appraisers don’t use race: Appraisers cannot and do not use race as a factor when coming up with a value. This is 100% off limits – not to mention highly unethical and immoral. Race has absolutely nothing to do with value. Comps are never selected based on race or racial boundaries of any kind. Let me say that again. Race is NEVER considered during a valuation.

2) Have appraisers “devalued” neighborhoods by $48,000? In the congressional hearing a panelist talked about a study that shows black neighborhoods are devalued by $48,000 compared to otherwise similar white neighborhoods. That’s alarming and society needs to have some serious discussion about this, but this study has NOTHING to do with appraisers actually devaluing properties (read it here). When we hear the word “devaluation” it sounds like we’re talking about something appraisers are doing, but the $48,000 price disparity comes from the author studying price trends from Zillow rather than analyzing the actions of appraisers. In other words, appraisers are NOT devaluing homes by $48,000. Yet when congress members heard “devaluation” and the speaker saying appraisers are part of the problem, the impression is that appraisers are clearly showing bias by devaluing properties based on race. This impression has certainly been passed on via social media too. You can watch the hearing here.

3) Appraisers reflect the market: One of my takeaways from the hearing is there’s a deep misunderstanding of what appraisers actually do, which is why it’s easy to place blame for this $48,000 price disparity on appraisers.

a) Not magicians: Appraisers aren’t magicians able to cause value to rise or fall. We certainly don’t have the power to make prices $48,000 higher or lower in one neighborhood compared to another.

b) The only role: An appraiser’s only role is to ensure the value of a home is measured accurately without bias. What would buyers reasonably pay for a specific home in a specific location? That’s always the question, and the best reflection of value is likely going to come from competitive sales in the neighborhood itself.

c) Locations aren’t the same: The market isn’t doing the same thing everywhere and buyers are not willing to pay the same prices everywhere either. This is why the appraised value can vary so widely – even if homes are identical in different neighborhoods. The speaker’s $48,000 price disparity between black and white neighborhoods is truly shocking, but frankly that’s not an appraisal issue. The appraiser’s job isn’t to ensure values are the same everywhere. Appraisers use neighborhood sales data to come up with value and it would be unethical to borrow “comps” from a higher-priced area to jack up prices in a lower-priced community (or vice versa).

d) Helping is not an option: Even if appraisers wanted to see certain areas emerge in glory after the ugly reality of redlining, it’s still not an appraiser’s professional role to make that happen. This might sound callous, but appraisers don’t make markets move. They only measure the market rather than act as a gas pedal or brake pedal for prices. This is exactly why the $48,000 example is so flawed. This price difference isn’t caused by appraisers doing their job. There are much bigger issues at the root.

As an appraiser I will NOT:

– Show bias against race
– Value a property any differently because of race
– Discuss race in any appraisal report
– Work with people who are known racists
– Treat any clients differently due to race
– Base any opinions in my appraisal on race
– Tolerate racism in real estate if I’m aware of it
– Use subjective language to say one neighborhood is better or worse

As an appraiser I will:

– Strive to be professional and kind to everyone
– Be unbiased in my approach to value
– Respect owners and renters of all backgrounds
– Let market data tell the story of value
– Have friendships with diverse members in the real estate community
– Say yes to speaking engagements with diverse groups
– Listen when people talk about racism in real estate
– Be open to findings in studies on racial bias in valuation
– Speak up when narratives like this emerge
– Clarify the role of appraisers

Why I wrote this: After watching the hearing last week I was deeply concerned that the neutral role appraisers play is being sorely misunderstood. I’m dismayed too that colleagues are being perceived as racists.

In Closing: We have a systemic problem of racial discrimination in our country and there is an ugly history of racism in real estate too. In fact, here’s a sobering presentation talking about redlining in Sacramento. This is exactly why we need to have conversation about the study showing price differences between black and white neighborhoods. This is real. But before running with the headline that appraisers are “devaluing” neighborhoods by race, let’s hit the pause button. The study quoted doesn’t support this claim. Is racism real though? Of course.

Want to comment? Please know I will not approve any inflammatory or racial comments, so I ask that you choose your words accordingly. Likewise, if you don’t want to work with me because I won’t tolerate racism in my life and business, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Questions: What is your reaction to the information above? What did I leave out? What are your concerns about racism in real estate? Let’s chat.

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Dude, my house is worth more now, right? Because of that one thing.

June 19, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

My house is worth more now, right? Or maybe it’s worth less because of that one thing? I get questions like this all the time, so here’s some thoughts swirling through my mind. Skim the headings or dig in. Anything to add?

Questions I’ve heard recently:

Will prices rise because a nearby restaurant got a Michelin Star?
Did my value go up because of the new arena in Downtown Sacramento?
My house is worth more because Lady Bird was filmed here, right?
Is my house worth more because of that $5M record sale?
Would values decline if a new hotel is constructed 1.5 miles away?
A new Starbucks down the street makes value go up, right?
Will it damage neighborhood values if there’s a cannabis facility nearby?
Will a new gas station impact neighborhood prices?
Will the Golden State Killer’s house affect my value?
Are values going to decline if the school district is taken over by the state?
How will adding a casino nearby affect value?
Will prices go down if that new teaching hospital happens?

Not a dissertation: Many of these questions are truly complex and they could be research papers. At the same time we read some of these and think, “C’mon man, there’s no way that impacts value.”

Quick truth: We can get so trigger-happy about thinking everything makes a difference for value, but that’s just not the case. It’s like when a home owner says, “Yo, I got a new faucet in the bathroom. How much does this add to value?” Probably nothing. The market just isn’t that sensitive.

My Michelin Star poll: I ran a poll on Twitter after getting a fantastic question about whether Sacramento’s first Michelin Star would be a positive for the surrounding residential neighborhood.

This wasn’t a scientific survey, but it’s interesting to hear what people think. I tend to agree with the majority too. My sense is the Michelin Star will give bragging rights to neighbors, but I’m not sure buyers would truly pay more in an entry-level area to be closer to a top-tier restaurant. Keep in mind if this restaurant did begin to help the commercial market thrive, then maybe that could spill over into the residential market. Otherwise let’s not overthink this.

Generally speaking: If something has little impact on an area, it’s probably not going to affect value much. Let’s remember that when making value claims and thinking through issues. But if something persuades or dissuades buyers, then it could be a big deal for the market. In other words, will people buy or rent for more or less because of the thing? This is the type of market-based thinking we need to consider.

The arena: As an example, the new arena in Downtown Sacramento has been a game-changer because it’s drawn people and other businesses into the city. It’s been a catalyst for development in the immediate market. But that doesn’t mean a buyer ten miles away would pay more for a house because of the new arena. I say fat chance.

Lady Bird: Would someone pay more for a house because the movie Lady Bird was filmed in the neighborhood? I’m not saying the answer is NO, but I just haven’t met a buyer yet who said, “I totally paid more because of Greta Gerwig’s cinematic masterpiece.” Objectively speaking, I can only find four listings that mention the movie too, and that may be telling.

Two takeaways:

1) One thing: Let’s be cautious about looking for value under every rock. What I mean is it would be wise to remember not everything we encounter is going to sway buyers to pay more or less.

2) Support: Let’s think critically and be sure to look to data to support our value conclusions. At the end of the day we can make claims about how a certain something impacts the market, but what do stats and data actually show? That’s what matters most.

“Beyond the Bubble” article: I wrote a piece for Comstock’s Magazine this month called Beyond the Bubble. These are things on my mind lately with so much talk about whether we’re in a bubble or not.

Questions: What questions have you been asked lately? Have you seen one type of business or something else impact an entire area? What do you think of any of the questions above? Let’s chat.

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