I have some really interesting stuff to share today, and I hope you dig it. Let’s talk about some glowing population stats and price growth that has seemed to flatten lately (sort of). The stats are also going to get awkward as we start comparing today with a really dull market last year.
NOTE: This post is designed to skim by topic or digest slowly
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
5/15/26 Nevada County
5/21/26 Jenn Davis-Radcliffe Event (private)
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH
IT’S NOT ALL BAD NEWS FOR CALIFORNIA POPULATION
There is so much attention on people leaving California, but most counties in the wider Sacramento region have been growing according to new stats from the California Department of Finance. I shared this on my socials, and it went viral on IG. People like to hear about population change, though it also brings out conversations about traffic and how hard it is to see things not stay the same, so this isn’t all bliss.
HOUSING STATS ARE BORING RIGHT NOW
Check out how similar April 2026 is to April 2025. Mostly all the metrics are the same, which makes these stats honestly a little boring (not sensational). Yet, this is poised to change over the next few months as we start comparing 2026 with a really dull 2025. This assumes 2026 doesn’t have a sharp inflection point like we saw last year.
Here’s what it looks like as a meme…
PRICE CHANGE IS SLOWER RATHER THAN INTENSE
Some price stats look like they’ve been starting to flatten a little or at least not intensify. This doesn’t mean price declines have stopped or bigger change isn’t possible in the future. It just means change has been slower lately, and we should talk about it to try to make sense of things.
Both the median and Zillow show exactly what I’m saying as year-over-year price change has slowed. Yet, the Freddie Mac Price Index grew in March, so I’m not ready to say we’ve entered a full-on flattening season. I’m simply recognizing some stats have slowed. Ultimately, we need a few months to see how things play out.
One more thing. Uncertainty today has not been an intense as one year ago, but there is still lingering uncertainty about the war, gas prices, and higher inflation. To date, these factors haven’t caused a big inflection point like we saw last year, but it’s something to continue to watch.
CONDO PRICES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP
Condos are NOT showing the same tame price change as detached units. This is a good reminder that the single-family detached trend can be different from the condo trend.
COMPARISONS ARE GOING TO GET WEIRD
We’re going to start comparing today with a dull market in 2025, and it means we need to be thoughtful about interpreting what the stats mean. Locally, here are some things to watch:
- Days on market is poised to be lower than one year ago in coming months (check out the green line compared to blue)
- The % of homes selling above will be higher than last year
- The % of homes selling below will be lower than last year
- We should get more new listings this year than last year unless sellers start to back off more. I’m hoping a slightly weaker showing of new listings in April 2026 isn’t going to turn into a trend.
- Its possible buyer volume can be better in coming months as it has through April, but there are so many factors that can affect this.
- Price stats seem poised to be closer to last year, but we’ll see.
- It’s possible we’ll see a higher number of offers on properties today since competition shrank last year.
All of this will take a few months to start showing up more in the stats for closed sales, and then we’ll see what ends up happening for the rest of the year.
The black lines (2026) will be much closer to the red lines (pre-2020 norm) in coming months. I think it’s possible the next few months will be slightly softer than the norm, but only time will tell.
VOLUME IS HIGHER THAN ONE YEAR AGO
We probably don’t want to write home over 2% more closed sales, but it’s still something to note. This is exactly what we want to see in 2026. A little bit more volume.
IGNORE THE MEDIAN PRICE IN SMALLER AREAS
Here are some images to show how erratic the median sales price can be in smaller counties. My advice? Don’t build your narrative on the median from month to month. You’re going to sound insane if you do. It’s reasonable to look at larger counties for the trend rather than getting too focused on smaller areas that bounce around so much more.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR RECAP IMAGES
Enjoy recap stats for twelve counties. I’m considering making month-to-month visuals again, but I’m still in test-drive mode for these ones. Please take smaller counties with a grain of salt. Stats can bounce around all over the place, so don’t be rigid about the change from month to month.
Anyway, I hope that was interesting. Thanks for being here.
Questions: How would you describe the market right now? What are you seeing happen with prices? Or you seeing the trend flatten or grow?
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Hey Ryan,
The market depends on the segment. East Sacramento has increasing prices, as we discussed, but other areas I work have been stable or decreasing. It depends.
The low volume continues to make conclusions challenging, especially in low volume, non-conforming markets. It’s tough to figure things out now, as it has been for years.
Totally agree. The market is the same everywhere. I think the bigger picture has been maybe tightening a little. Still, I think we need more data. I think it’s worth conversation at this point though. It is tough out there, and I think it’s helpful for onlookers to know that it’s a struggle to figure out the direction of prices. It’s not always a simple matter. Yet, if it’s a struggle and not blatant at times, that sort of shows what I’m saying here. No sharp change as the vibe.
You always keep me hanging on to see what happens with the market next month. 🙂